<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.80%）的股票已经创造了很多百万富翁。毕竟，其首席执行官埃隆·马斯克是世界首富，这在很大程度上归功于他在公司的 13% 股份。但过去的表现并不能保证未来的成功。特斯拉是否仍具备继续牛市的能力尚不明确，尤其是在政治压力和电动车（EV）行业疲软的影响下。</p>
<p>让我们深入探讨一下，特斯拉转向机器人和自动驾驶技术等新机会是否能够帮助其克服在传统汽车业务中的弱点以及其高估值带来的不适。</p>
<h2>特斯拉不能仅仅是另一家汽车制造商</h2>
<p>汽车已经存在超过 100 年，这意味着这个行业极其成熟，导致利润率低和竞争激烈。曾几何时，特斯拉通过高度的垂直整合、规模经济和像 giga casting 这样的创新，能够打破这些动态，后者用大型单件结构取代了复杂的组装部件。但随着时间的推移，公司的经济护城河已经被侵蚀。</p>
<p>主要挑战来自于低成本的中国电动车竞争对手，如 <strong>比亚迪</strong>，以及像 <strong>福特</strong> 和 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 这样的传统汽车制造商，它们利用庞大的生产基础设施和经销商网络迅速扩张。然而，马斯克通过对美国政治的涉足，尤其是他对唐纳德·特朗普总统的公开支持，显然没有让事情变得更容易。采取强烈的政治立场必然会让一大部分潜在买家感到不快。</p>
<p>特斯拉第一季度的财报显示其品牌吸引力正在下降。收入同比下降 9%，降至 213 亿美元，主要是由于汽车部门的销售暴跌 20%，该部门占销售的 82%。</p>
<p>欧洲的崩溃最为严重。该地区的销售骤降了惊人的 37.2%。好消息是，特斯拉在美国的业务目前表现得要好得多。</p>
<h2>特朗普仍然是特斯拉的变数</h2>
<p>到目前为止，许多美国消费者似乎将政治与购车决策分开。根据 Cox Automotive 的数据，美国第一季度的销售下降幅度相对温和，仅为 9%。然而，特斯拉的蜜月期还能持续多久尚不明确。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTczMzIxMzEzOC0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTczMzIxMzEzOC0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>马斯克与特朗普在其正在国会辩论的《美丽大法案》立法上发生了公开分歧。更大的威胁可能来自特朗普的立法，这可能会取消电动车购买的 7500 美元税收抵免。</p>
<p>政府支持的丧失可能会削弱特斯拉在美国的业务，正当其面临国际市场疲软和关税带来的更高成本。CNN 还报道，在当前的法律框架下，支持可能仍会保留给像 <strong>Rivian</strong> 和 <strong>Lucid</strong> 这样的较小电动车公司，使它们能够维持较低的价格，从而侵蚀特斯拉的市场份额。</p>
<h2>机器人和人工智能将决定特斯拉的成败</h2>
<p>特斯拉的市盈率（P/E）为 186，对于一家销售和盈利能力下降的企业来说，这个估值异常昂贵。该估值似乎已经考虑了其自动驾驶和机器人雄心带来的戏剧性运营增长的预期。</p>
<p>有一些理由让人感到兴奋。麦肯锡公司的分析师认为，到 2035 年，自动驾驶可能会产生 3000 亿到 4000 亿美元的收入。特斯拉似乎在这个机会中处于领先地位，计划本月在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动出租车。</p>
<p>该公司专注于低成本摄像头和 “计算机视觉”，这可能使其在像 Waymo（<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的子公司）这样的竞争对手面前占据优势，后者依赖昂贵的激光雷达，并必须从昂贵的第三方供应商那里采购车辆，增加了成本和复杂性。</p>
<p>但尽管特斯拉确实有潜力创造更多的百万富翁，成功已经在其估值中被反映出来。因此，考虑到马斯克给公司带来的巨大政治不确定性，目前的下行风险似乎超过了上行潜力。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票创造了许多百万富翁，但由于政治压力和低成本电动车竞争对手的竞争，其未来成功充满不确定性。该公司第一季度的财报显示收入下降了 9%，汽车销售显著下滑，尤其是在欧洲。尽管美国的销售情况保持稳定，但电动车税收抵免的潜在变化可能会影响特斯拉的市场份额。公司的高估值反映了对自动驾驶和机器人技术增长的预期，但分析师警告称，考虑到当前的政治气候和竞争，风险可能超过潜在的回报</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>'s (TSLA 1.80%) stock has already created plenty of millionaires. After all, its CEO, Elon Musk, is the world's richest man, due in large part to his 13% stake in the company. But past performance doesn't guarantee future success. It's unclear if Tesla still has what it takes to continue its bull run, especially as political pressure and electric vehicle (EV) industry weakness bite.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.80%）的股票已经创造了很多百万富翁。毕竟，其首席执行官埃隆·马斯克是世界首富，这在很大程度上归功于他在公司的 13% 股份。但过去的表现并不能保证未来的成功。特斯拉是否仍具备继续牛市的能力尚不明确，尤其是在政治压力和电动车（EV）行业疲软的影响下。</p>
</div><p>Let's dig deeper to decide if Tesla's pivot to new opportunities, like robotics and self-driving technology, could help it overcome its weaknesses in its legacy automotive operations and its uncomfortably high valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们深入探讨一下，特斯拉转向机器人和自动驾驶技术等新机会是否能够帮助其克服在传统汽车业务中的弱点以及其高估值带来的不适。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla can't just be another automaker</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉不能仅仅是另一家汽车制造商</h2>
</div><p>Cars have been around for over 100 years, which means the industry is incredibly mature, leading to low margins and stiff competition. For a time, Tesla had been able to buck these dynamics through high levels of vertical integration, economies of scale, and innovations like giga casting, which replaced complex assembled parts with large single-piece structures. But over time, the company's economic moat has eroded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汽车已经存在超过 100 年，这意味着这个行业极其成熟，导致利润率低和竞争激烈。曾几何时，特斯拉通过高度的垂直整合、规模经济和像 giga casting 这样的创新，能够打破这些动态，后者用大型单件结构取代了复杂的组装部件。但随着时间的推移，公司的经济护城河已经被侵蚀。</p>
</div><p>The main challenge has been competition from low-cost Chinese EV rivals like <strong>BYD</strong> and legacy automakers like <strong>Ford</strong> and <strong>General Motors</strong>, which have leveraged their massive production infrastructure and dealership networks to scale rapidly. However, Musk certainly hasn't made things easier through his foray into U.S. politics, with his outspoken support for President Donald Trump. Taking a strong political position on one side or the other will inevitably rub a large portion of potenital buyers the wrong way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要挑战来自于低成本的中国电动车竞争对手，如 <strong>比亚迪</strong>，以及像 <strong>福特</strong> 和 <strong>通用汽车</strong> 这样的传统汽车制造商，它们利用庞大的生产基础设施和经销商网络迅速扩张。然而，马斯克通过对美国政治的涉足，尤其是他对唐纳德·特朗普总统的公开支持，显然没有让事情变得更容易。采取强烈的政治立场必然会让一大部分潜在买家感到不快。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's first-quarter earnings demonstrate its deteriorating brand appeal. Revenue dropped 9% year over year to $21.3 billion, driven by a 20% collapse in the automotive segment, which represents 82% of sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉第一季度的财报显示其品牌吸引力正在下降。收入同比下降 9%，降至 213 亿美元，主要是由于汽车部门的销售暴跌 20%，该部门占销售的 82%。</p>
</div><p>The collapse was worst in Europe. Sales on the continent slumped by a stunning 37.2%. The good news is that Tesla's U.S. operations have held up much better -- for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲的崩溃最为严重。该地区的销售骤降了惊人的 37.2%。好消息是，特斯拉在美国的业务目前表现得要好得多。</p>
</div><h2>Trump remains a wild card for Tesla</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特朗普仍然是特斯拉的变数</h2>
</div><p>So far, many American consumers appear to be keeping their politics separate from their car-buying decisions. U.S. first-quarter sales were down by a relatively modest 9%, according to data from Cox Automotive. However, it's unclear how much longer Tesla's honeymoon period will last.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，许多美国消费者似乎将政治与购车决策分开。根据 Cox Automotive 的数据，美国第一季度的销售下降幅度相对温和，仅为 9%。然而，特斯拉的蜜月期还能持续多久尚不明确。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE4NDMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTczMzIxMzEzOC0xLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821843%2Fgettyimages-1733213138-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Musk has had public disagreements with Trump over his Big Beautiful Bill legislation, which is currently being debated in Congress. The bigger threat could come from Trump's legislation, which could strip away the $7,500 tax credit for EV purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克与特朗普在其正在国会辩论的《美丽大法案》立法上发生了公开分歧。更大的威胁可能来自特朗普的立法，这可能会取消电动车购买的 7500 美元税收抵免。</p>
</div><p>The loss of government support could undermine Tesla's U.S. business, just as it is facing international weakness and higher costs from tariffs. CNN also reports that under the current language, support may remain for smaller EV companies like <strong>Rivian</strong> and <strong>Lucid</strong>, allowing them to maintain lower prices and eat away at Tesla's market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府支持的丧失可能会削弱特斯拉在美国的业务，正当其面临国际市场疲软和关税带来的更高成本。CNN 还报道，在当前的法律框架下，支持可能仍会保留给像 <strong>Rivian</strong> 和 <strong>Lucid</strong> 这样的较小电动车公司，使它们能够维持较低的价格，从而侵蚀特斯拉的市场份额。</p>
</div><h2>Robotics and AI will make or break Tesla</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>机器人和人工智能将决定特斯拉的成败</h2>
</div><p>With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 186, Tesla stock is abnormally expensive for a business with declining sales and profitability. The valuation seems to price in the expectation of dramatic operational growth from its self-driving and robotics ambitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的市盈率（P/E）为 186，对于一家销售和盈利能力下降的企业来说，这个估值异常昂贵。该估值似乎已经考虑了其自动驾驶和机器人雄心带来的戏剧性运营增长的预期。</p>
</div><p>There is some reason to be excited. Analysts at McKinsey &amp; Company believe autonomous driving could generate $300 billion to $400 billion in revenue by 2035. Tesla seems to be an early leader in the opportunity, with plans to launch automated taxis in Austin, Texas this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有一些理由让人感到兴奋。麦肯锡公司的分析师认为，到 2035 年，自动驾驶可能会产生 3000 亿到 4000 亿美元的收入。特斯拉似乎在这个机会中处于领先地位，计划本月在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出自动出租车。</p>
</div><p>The company's focus on low-cost cameras and &#34;computer vision&#34; could give it an edge over rivals like Waymo (a subsidiary of <strong>Alphabet</strong>), which relies on pricey LiDAR and must source its vehicles from expensive third-party suppliers, adding cost and complexity to its operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司专注于低成本摄像头和 “计算机视觉”，这可能使其在像 Waymo（<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的子公司）这样的竞争对手面前占据优势，后者依赖昂贵的激光雷达，并必须从昂贵的第三方供应商那里采购车辆，增加了成本和复杂性。</p>
</div><p>But while Tesla definitely has the potential to make more millionaires, success is already priced into its valuation. So, the downside risk seems to outweigh the upside right now -- especially considering the immense political uncertainty Musk has brought upon the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但尽管特斯拉确实有潜力创造更多的百万富翁，成功已经在其估值中被反映出来。因此，考虑到马斯克给公司带来的巨大政治不确定性，目前的下行风险似乎超过了上行潜力。</p>
</div>

Is Tesla a Millionaire-Maker Stock?

- 特斯拉面临来自低成本竞争对手的压力，第一季度汽车收入下降 20%。  
- 政治因素可能影响特斯拉的品牌吸引力和销售表现。  
- 自主驾驶和机器人技术的成功将是特斯拉未来发展的关键。  

特斯拉是否是一只能造就百万富翁的股票？