<p>我不确定。这是我被问到的许多问题的答案。这绝对是关于 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.94%) 股票在五年后会在哪里的答案。</p>
<p>不过，我认为我对亚马逊股票在 2030 年的整体前景有一个相当不错的看法。如果我没错，亚马逊股东的前景看起来非常乐观。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIyMTAvbWFuLWhvbGRpbmctYmlub2N1bGFycy13aXRoLWRvbGxhci1zaWducy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="464" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIyMTAvbWFuLWhvbGRpbmctYmlub2N1bGFycy13aXRoLWRvbGxhci1zaWducy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>向上，向上，再向上</h2>
<p>如果亚马逊的股价在五年后没有显著上涨，我会感到非常惊讶。我们是在谈论市值达到 3 万亿美元？4 万亿美元？甚至 5 万亿美元？也许，也许，或许。</p>
<p>回顾亚马逊在 1997 年 5 月的首次公开募股，只有两个五年期间该股票没有带来强劲的收益。这两个时期都发生在 21 世纪初的互联网泡沫破裂期间。在亚马逊历史上的大多数其他五年期间，其股价至少翻了一番，通常还会飙升三倍或更多。</p>
<p>正如共同基金的披露所说，&#34;过去的表现并不一定能预示未来的结果。&#34;这对于亚马逊（以及任何其他股票）都是正确的。在某种程度上，对于像亚马逊这样的公司来说，延续其成功的记录变得越来越困难。当你的市值为 2.3 万亿美元时，提供强劲的增长比市值为 1000 亿美元时要困难得多。</p>
<p>然而，我对亚马逊在五年后会更大这一预测相当有信心。为什么？因为在过去近三十年中，推动公司成功的文化今天仍然存在。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的增长驱动力</h2>
<p>不过，我会超越文化，认为亚马逊应该显著增长的原因有五个具体方面。</p>
<p>首先，我怀疑我们只看到了人工智能（AI）将如何改变世界的冰山一角。我预计本十年的下半段将充满一个又一个的人工智能进展。亚马逊可能是实现这些进展的公司之一。而且，它几乎肯定会成为人工智能进步的一个重要受益者，亚马逊网络服务（AWS）排名为全球最大的云服务提供商。</p>
<p>其次，亚马逊在其核心电子商务业务中还有更多的增长空间，远比表面上看到的要多。当然，电子商务不再是新鲜事——而且亚马逊已经是市场上的 800 磅大猩猩。然而，首席执行官安迪·贾西在亚马逊 2024 年 10 月的季度更新中指出，他的公司仅占全球零售市场的约 1%。我认为贾西也正确地指出，在未来 10 到 20 年中，在线零售的比例将远高于现在。</p>
<p>第三，亚马逊正在稳步成为一个广告巨头。2025 年第一季度，广告服务收入同比飙升 19%，是亚马逊所有业务中（包括 AWS）增长最快的业务。</p>
<p>第四，亚马逊并没有停止寻找新的市场来征服。作为一个例子，该公司最近发射了首批 Project Kuiper 卫星，并计划在今年晚些时候开始向客户提供卫星互联网服务。</p>
<p>第五，亚马逊的收益增长速度应该会超过其收入增长（而且我预计收入将强劲增长）。管理层一直专注于提高盈利能力，这些努力正在取得成效。我认为这一趋势将会持续。长期来看，收益如何，股票价格也会如何。</p>
<h2>一个不稳定的预测</h2>
<p>我不想让任何希望得到关于亚马逊股价和市值在五年后会是什么的预测的人失望。这里是我的预测：我预测到 2030 年，亚马逊的股价和市值将大致翻倍，分别达到约 430 美元（假设没有股票拆分）和超过 4.5 万亿美元。</p>
<p>请记住，这个预测并不稳妥。经济可能会衰退。其他公司可能会超越亚马逊。还有许多其他不可预测的因素可能会妨碍我乐观的前景成为现实。正如我在开头所说，我不确定。没有人知道。不过，有一件事我可以肯定的是，我不会对亚马逊下注。</p>

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>亚马逊（AMZN）股票在未来五年的前景看起来积极，预计市场资本将显著增长，可能达到 4.5 万亿美元。主要的增长驱动因素包括人工智能的进步、电子商务的扩展、广告收入的增加、新市场的开拓如卫星互联网，以及对盈利能力的关注。尽管存在不确定性，作者对亚马逊在 2030 年前将股价翻倍至约 430 美元的能力表示信心，并强调对抗亚马逊的投资将是不明智的</p>

<p>I don't know for sure. That's the answer to many questions I'm asked. It's definitely the answer to where <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.94%) stock will be in five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不确定。这是我被问到的许多问题的答案。这绝对是关于 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.94%) 股票在五年后会在哪里的答案。</p>
</div><p>However, I think I have a pretty good overall take on where Amazon stock will be in 2030. If I'm right, the outlook looks highly encouraging for Amazon shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，我认为我对亚马逊股票在 2030 年的整体前景有一个相当不错的看法。如果我没错，亚马逊股东的前景看起来非常乐观。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIyMTAvbWFuLWhvbGRpbmctYmlub2N1bGFycy13aXRoLWRvbGxhci1zaWducy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822210%2Fman-holding-binoculars-with-dollar-signs.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Up, up, and away</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>向上，向上，再向上</h2>
</div><p>I'll be quite surprised if Amazon's share price isn't significantly higher five years from now. Are we talking about a market cap of $3 trillion? $4 trillion? Even $5 trillion? Maybe, maybe, and maybe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果亚马逊的股价在五年后没有显著上涨，我会感到非常惊讶。我们是在谈论市值达到 3 万亿美元？4 万亿美元？甚至 5 万亿美元？也许，也许，或许。</p>
</div><p>Going back to Amazon's initial public offering in May 1997, there have only been two five-year periods during which the stock didn't deliver strong gains. Both occurred during the dot-com bubble burst in the early 21st century. In most of the other five-year periods in Amazon's history, its share price at least doubled and often skyrocketed threefold or more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顾亚马逊在 1997 年 5 月的首次公开募股，只有两个五年期间该股票没有带来强劲的收益。这两个时期都发生在 21 世纪初的互联网泡沫破裂期间。在亚马逊历史上的大多数其他五年期间，其股价至少翻了一番，通常还会飙升三倍或更多。</p>
</div><p>As the mutual fund disclosures say, &#34;Past performance isn't necessarily indicative of future results.&#34; That's true with Amazon (and any other stock, for that matter). In some ways, it gets increasingly difficult for companies like Amazon to extend their successful track records. Delivering robust growth is harder when your market cap is $2.3 trillion than when it's $100 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如共同基金的披露所说，&#34;过去的表现并不一定能预示未来的结果。&#34;这对于亚马逊（以及任何其他股票）都是正确的。在某种程度上，对于像亚马逊这样的公司来说，延续其成功的记录变得越来越困难。当你的市值为 2.3 万亿美元时，提供强劲的增长比市值为 1000 亿美元时要困难得多。</p>
</div><p>However, I'm reasonably confident predicting that Amazon will be bigger five years from now. Why? The same culture that was largely responsible for the company's success over the last nearly three decades is still in place today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我对亚马逊在五年后会更大这一预测相当有信心。为什么？因为在过去近三十年中，推动公司成功的文化今天仍然存在。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's growth drivers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的增长驱动力</h2>
</div><p>I'll go beyond culture as a reason Amazon should grow significantly, though. There are five specific reasons I think Amazon stock will perform well over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，我会超越文化，认为亚马逊应该显著增长的原因有五个具体方面。</p>
</div><p>First, I suspect we've only seen the tip of the iceberg of how artificial intelligence (AI) will transform the world. I expect the second half of this decade will be filled with one AI advance after another. Amazon will probably be one of the companies achieving those advances. And it will almost certainly be a big beneficiary of AI progress, with Amazon Web Services (AWS) ranking as the world's largest cloud services provider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，我怀疑我们只看到了人工智能（AI）将如何改变世界的冰山一角。我预计本十年的下半段将充满一个又一个的人工智能进展。亚马逊可能是实现这些进展的公司之一。而且，它几乎肯定会成为人工智能进步的一个重要受益者，亚马逊网络服务（AWS）排名为全球最大的云服务提供商。</p>
</div><p>Second, there's more room for Amazon to grow in its core e-commerce business than meets the eye. Sure, e-commerce is no longer new -- and Amazon is already the 800-pound gorilla in the market. However, CEO Andy Jassy hit the nail on the head in Amazon's October 2024 quarterly update when he pointed out that his company owned only around 1% of the global retail market. I think Jassy was also correct that a lot more retail will be done online in the next 10 to 20 years than is done now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，亚马逊在其核心电子商务业务中还有更多的增长空间，远比表面上看到的要多。当然，电子商务不再是新鲜事——而且亚马逊已经是市场上的 800 磅大猩猩。然而，首席执行官安迪·贾西在亚马逊 2024 年 10 月的季度更新中指出，他的公司仅占全球零售市场的约 1%。我认为贾西也正确地指出，在未来 10 到 20 年中，在线零售的比例将远高于现在。</p>
</div><p>Third, Amazon is steadily becoming an advertising behemoth. Advertising services revenue soared 19% year over year in the first quarter of 2025, the fastest growth rate of any of Amazon's businesses (including AWS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，亚马逊正在稳步成为一个广告巨头。2025 年第一季度，广告服务收入同比飙升 19%，是亚马逊所有业务中（包括 AWS）增长最快的业务。</p>
</div><p>Fourth, Amazon hasn't stopped looking for new markets to conquer. As a case in point, the company recently launched its first Project Kuiper satellites and plans to start offering satellite internet service to customers later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第四，亚马逊并没有停止寻找新的市场来征服。作为一个例子，该公司最近发射了首批 Project Kuiper 卫星，并计划在今年晚些时候开始向客户提供卫星互联网服务。</p>
</div><p>Fifth, Amazon's earnings should grow faster than its revenue (and I expect strong revenue growth). Management has been laser-focused on improving profitability, and those efforts are paying off. I think this trend will continue. As earnings go, so goes a stock price over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第五，亚马逊的收益增长速度应该会超过其收入增长（而且我预计收入将强劲增长）。管理层一直专注于提高盈利能力，这些努力正在取得成效。我认为这一趋势将会持续。长期来看，收益如何，股票价格也会如何。</p>
</div><h2>A shaky prediction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一个不稳定的预测</h2>
</div><p>I'd hate to disappoint anyone who was hoping for a prediction about what Amazon's share price and market cap would be five years from now. Here it is: I predict Amazon's share price and market cap will roughly double by 2030 to around $430 (assuming no stock splits) and over $4.5 trillion, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不想让任何希望得到关于亚马逊股价和市值在五年后会是什么的预测的人失望。这里是我的预测：我预测到 2030 年，亚马逊的股价和市值将大致翻倍，分别达到约 430 美元（假设没有股票拆分）和超过 4.5 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Keep in mind that this is a shaky prediction. The economy could falter. Other companies could outinnovate Amazon. A host of other wild cards could get in the way of my optimistic outlook becoming reality. As I said at the outset, I don't know for sure. No one does. One thing I do know for sure, though, is that I wouldn't bet against Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请记住，这个预测并不稳妥。经济可能会衰退。其他公司可能会超越亚马逊。还有许多其他不可预测的因素可能会妨碍我乐观的前景成为现实。正如我在开头所说，我不确定。没有人知道。不过，有一件事我可以肯定的是，我不会对亚马逊下注。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 预计亚马逊股价在 2030 年前将显著上涨，市值可能达 4.5 万亿美元。  
- 亚马逊的增长动力包括人工智能、电子商务和广告业务的扩展。  
- 管理层专注于提高盈利能力，预计未来收益将快于收入增长。  

五年后亚马逊的股票将会如何表现？