<p>在 2024 年底接近 260 美元的高峰后，<strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.53%）的股价已进入熊市。尽管广泛的股市指数接近历史新高，但苹果的股票下跌了 25%，成为 2025 年表现最差的大型科技股之一。</p>
<p>投资者对关税、收入增长放缓以及可能影响智能手机制造商未来盈利能力的反垄断诉讼感到担忧。</p>
<p>现在是购买苹果股票的合适时机吗？让我们来检验一下数据，看看为什么今天购买苹果是一项风险较大的投资。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIxMzQvdGhpbmtpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="491" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIxMzQvdGhpbmtpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>稳定的 iPhone 销售，失败的硬件创新</h2>
<p>iPhone 仍然是一个畅销的消费产品。在过去六个月中，该细分市场为苹果创造了超过 1000 亿美元的收入，使其成为全球收入最高的智能手机。</p>
<p>投资者面临的问题是，销售在过去几年中停滞不前。苹果能够持续提高新 iPhone 的价格，但消费者的升级周期越来越长，这意味着他们在购买最新设备之前需要等待更长的时间。这对收入增长构成了重大阻力。</p>
<p>为了扩展其设备生态系统，苹果在可穿戴设备方面取得了一定进展，如 Apple Watch 和 AirPods。这些都是成功的产品，但对于苹果 4000 亿美元的年综合收入来说，影响有限。为此，苹果推出了自 iPhone 以来最大的硬件产品——Vision Pro 虚拟现实头显。这款售价 3500 美元的设备本应成为苹果下一个重要的计算范式，为用户提供更先进的工作和娱乐计算工具。</p>
<p>到目前为止，Vision Pro 似乎是一个失败。估计累计销量不足 100 万，许多购买者在试用期后报告停止使用该设备。</p>
<p>苹果仍然是一家依赖 iPhone 销售的硬件供应商，而这一产品类别已经成熟。预计在未来几年，除非苹果能够推出突破性的计算设备，否则在硬件方面的收入增长将面临更多挑战。</p>
<h2>反垄断诉讼将对利润产生什么影响？</h2>
<p>在过去几年中，苹果业务的金蛋是其软件和服务部门。包括 App Store 收入、许可协议以及来自其第一方应用（如 Apple Music）的收入，服务收入从 2012 年的 130 亿美元增长到过去 12 个月的 1020 亿美元。</p>
<p>服务收入的利润率也很高。过去 12 个月，服务的毛利润为 760 亿美元，接近公司从硬件产品中获得的 1100 亿美元毛利润。</p>
<p>苹果面临一个问题：其服务现金牛正受到攻击。</p>
<p>首先，由于法院裁决，苹果设备上的 App Store 垄断地位被打破。苹果对在 iPhone 上进行的某些交易向应用开发者收取 30% 的费用，之前不允许第三方支付方式，除非用户使用移动浏览器。法院裁决规定，开发者现在可以直接向消费者推广使用更便宜的支付方式，这可能意味着绕过苹果的支付生态系统。估计 App Store 的收入预计每年将为苹果带来至少 100 亿美元的高利润收入。</p>
<p>这并不是唯一一个将苹果利润置于风险之中的反垄断诉讼。还有一起反垄断案件部分涉及 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Google Search 为成为苹果设备默认搜索引擎所支付的巨额费用，估计这一支付每年超过 200 亿美元的纯利润。这可能会大大影响苹果的服务毛利润以及其综合净收益。</p>
<p>将两者相加，可以清楚地看出苹果的服务部门正面临威胁，而这是过去几年中业务中唯一的亮点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b2e654dcdf510f171750a20be7a8481.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b2e654dcdf510f171750a20be7a8481.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 净收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>一只疲软的股票，但并不便宜</h2>
<p>苹果股票在 2025 年初变得更便宜，但这并不意味着它便宜。它目前的市盈率（P/E）约为 30.5，高于一些增长更快的科技同行。</p>
<p>市盈率超过 30 的股票通常是为那些盈利快速增长、未来增长前景强劲的公司保留的。自 2022 年以来，苹果的净收入没有增长，使其成为市场上市盈率高但增长缓慢的股票之一。这是一个危险的组合。</p>
<p>我们不能忘记谈论关税。苹果正处于美国与中国之间贸易战的核心，而大多数苹果设备都是在中国组装的。过去，苹果能够通过谈判摆脱对其设备征收的高关税，但这次可能不会那么顺利。</p>
<p>对美国进口的高关税将对苹果造成严重打击，因为目前它几乎被迫在中国组装大部分设备。此外，转向新市场或美国也会带来额外费用。</p>
<p>今天关于苹果股票没有太多值得喜欢的地方。其关键产品增长放缓，盈利的服务部门受到冲击，且其估值昂贵。再加上关税风险，今天没有理由购买苹果股票的下跌。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的股票在 2025 年下跌了 25%，尽管整体市场上涨，但已进入熊市。对关税、iPhone 销售放缓和反垄断诉讼的担忧威胁着未来的收益。尽管服务收入显著增长，但最近的法院裁决使这一领域面临风险。苹果的市盈率为 30.5，尽管股票下跌，但这表明其可能并不是一个便宜的选择。考虑到公司的增长停滞和潜在的法律挑战，投资者正在质疑现在是否是买入的合适时机</p>

<p>After peaking at around $260 near the end of 2024, <strong>Apple</strong>'s (AAPL 0.53%) stock price has entered a bear market. Even with the wide stock market indices approaching new all-time highs, shares of Apple are down 25%, making it one of the worst-performing large-cap technology stocks in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年底接近 260 美元的高峰后，<strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 0.53%）的股价已进入熊市。尽管广泛的股市指数接近历史新高，但苹果的股票下跌了 25%，成为 2025 年表现最差的大型科技股之一。</p>
</div><p>Investors are worried about tariffs, slowing revenue growth, and antitrust lawsuits that may impact the smartphone maker's future earnings power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对关税、收入增长放缓以及可能影响智能手机制造商未来盈利能力的反垄断诉讼感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>Is now the right time to buy the dip on Apple stock? Let's put the numbers to the test and show why Apple is a risky big tech stock to purchase today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在是购买苹果股票的合适时机吗？让我们来检验一下数据，看看为什么今天购买苹果是一项风险较大的投资。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIxMzQvdGhpbmtpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822134%2Fthinking.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Steady iPhone sales, failed hardware innovations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>稳定的 iPhone 销售，失败的硬件创新</h2>
</div><p>The iPhone is still a blockbuster consumer product. Over the last six months alone, the segment has generated more than $100 billion in revenue for Apple, making it the most popular smartphone in the world by revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>iPhone 仍然是一个畅销的消费产品。在过去六个月中，该细分市场为苹果创造了超过 1000 亿美元的收入，使其成为全球收入最高的智能手机。</p>
</div><p>The problem for investors is the fact sales have stagnated for the last few years. Apple has been able to consistently raise the price of new iPhones, but upgrade cycles are proving longer and longer for consumers, meaning they are going more years before buying the latest device. This is a major headwind to revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者面临的问题是，销售在过去几年中停滞不前。苹果能够持续提高新 iPhone 的价格，但消费者的升级周期越来越长，这意味着他们在购买最新设备之前需要等待更长的时间。这对收入增长构成了重大阻力。</p>
</div><p>In order to expand its ecosystems of devices, Apple has made inroads into wearables like the Apple Watch and AirPods. These are successful products, but will not move the needle for Apple's $400 billion in consolidated annual revenue. To do that, Apple made its largest hardware launch since the iPhone with the Vision Pro virtual reality headset. A device that costs $3,500, the headset was supposed to be Apple's next big computing paradigm, giving its users more advanced computing tools for work and pleasure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了扩展其设备生态系统，苹果在可穿戴设备方面取得了一定进展，如 Apple Watch 和 AirPods。这些都是成功的产品，但对于苹果 4000 亿美元的年综合收入来说，影响有限。为此，苹果推出了自 iPhone 以来最大的硬件产品——Vision Pro 虚拟现实头显。这款售价 3500 美元的设备本应成为苹果下一个重要的计算范式，为用户提供更先进的工作和娱乐计算工具。</p>
</div><p>So far, it looks like the Vision Pro has been a flop. Estimates are that unit sales are cumulatively less than 1 million, with many purchasers reportedly stopping using the device after a trial period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，Vision Pro 似乎是一个失败。估计累计销量不足 100 万，许多购买者在试用期后报告停止使用该设备。</p>
</div><p>Apple remains a hardware provider tethered to iPhone sales, a product category that has matured. Expect more struggles to grow revenue on the hardware side of things in the years ahead unless Apple can come up with a breakthrough new computing device.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果仍然是一家依赖 iPhone 销售的硬件供应商，而这一产品类别已经成熟。预计在未来几年，除非苹果能够推出突破性的计算设备，否则在硬件方面的收入增长将面临更多挑战。</p>
</div><h2>What impact will antitrust lawsuits have on profits?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>反垄断诉讼将对利润产生什么影响？</h2>
</div><p>The golden goose of Apple's business in the last few years has been its software and services segment. Including App Store revenue, licensing deals, and revenue from its first-party apps such as Apple Music, services revenue has grown from $13 billion in 2012 to $102 billion over the last 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，苹果业务的金蛋是其软件和服务部门。包括 App Store 收入、许可协议以及来自其第一方应用（如 Apple Music）的收入，服务收入从 2012 年的 130 亿美元增长到过去 12 个月的 1020 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Services revenue comes with high profit margins, too. Services gross profit was $76 billion over the past 12 months, which is closing in on the $110 billion in gross profit the company gets from hardware products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服务收入的利润率也很高。过去 12 个月，服务的毛利润为 760 亿美元，接近公司从硬件产品中获得的 1100 亿美元毛利润。</p>
</div><p>Apple has one problem: Its services cash cow is under attack.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果面临一个问题：其服务现金牛正受到攻击。</p>
</div><p>First, the App Store monopoly on Apple devices has been broken due to a court ruling. Apple charges a 30% take rate on some transactions performed on an iPhone for application developers, and previously did not allow third-party payment methods unless users went to a mobile browser. The court ruling states that developers are allowed to now market directly to consumers to use cheaper payment methods, which could mean circumvention of Apple's payment ecosystem. Estimates vary, but App Store revenue is projected to be at least $10 billion a year in high-margin revenue for Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，由于法院裁决，苹果设备上的 App Store 垄断地位被打破。苹果对在 iPhone 上进行的某些交易向应用开发者收取 30% 的费用，之前不允许第三方支付方式，除非用户使用移动浏览器。法院裁决规定，开发者现在可以直接向消费者推广使用更便宜的支付方式，这可能意味着绕过苹果的支付生态系统。估计 App Store 的收入预计每年将为苹果带来至少 100 亿美元的高利润收入。</p>
</div><p>This is not the only antitrust lawsuit putting Apple's profits at risk. There is an antitrust court case that partially covers the large payment <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google Search makes to be the default engine on Apple devices, with estimates that the payment is more than $20 billion a year in pure profit. This could greatly impact Apple's services gross profit, as well as its consolidated bottom-line earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是唯一一个将苹果利润置于风险之中的反垄断诉讼。还有一起反垄断案件部分涉及 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Google Search 为成为苹果设备默认搜索引擎所支付的巨额费用，估计这一支付每年超过 200 亿美元的纯利润。这可能会大大影响苹果的服务毛利润以及其综合净收益。</p>
</div><p>Add both together, and it is clear that Apple's services division is under threat, and it's the only bright spot in the business over the last few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将两者相加，可以清楚地看出苹果的服务部门正面临威胁，而这是过去几年中业务中唯一的亮点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b2e654dcdf510f171750a20be7a8481.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0b2e654dcdf510f171750a20be7a8481.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Net Income (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 净收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>A downtrodden stock, but not cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一只疲软的股票，但并不便宜</h2>
</div><p>Apple stock has gotten cheaper to start 2025, but that does not mean it is cheap. It currently has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of about 30.5, which is higher than some of its technology peers that are growing much faster.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果股票在 2025 年初变得更便宜，但这并不意味着它便宜。它目前的市盈率（P/E）约为 30.5，高于一些增长更快的科技同行。</p>
</div><p>Stocks with P/E ratios above 30 are typically reserved for companies with earnings growing at a quick pace, with strong future growth prospects. Apple's net income has not grown since 2022, making it one of the slowest-growing stocks with a high P/E ratio on the market today. That is a dangerous combination.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率超过 30 的股票通常是为那些盈利快速增长、未来增长前景强劲的公司保留的。自 2022 年以来，苹果的净收入没有增长，使其成为市场上市盈率高但增长缓慢的股票之一。这是一个危险的组合。</p>
</div><p>We cannot forget to talk about tariffs. Apple is at the heart of the trade war between the United States and China, where most Apple devices are assembled. In the past, Apple has been able to negotiate its way out of high tariffs put on its devices, but this time may not go so well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们不能忘记谈论关税。苹果正处于美国与中国之间贸易战的核心，而大多数苹果设备都是在中国组装的。过去，苹果能够通过谈判摆脱对其设备征收的高关税，但这次可能不会那么顺利。</p>
</div><p>High tariffs on imports to the United States would be brutal for Apple, as it is virtually stuck assembling most of its devices in China for the time being. Plus, moving to new markets or the United States comes with added expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对美国进口的高关税将对苹果造成严重打击，因为目前它几乎被迫在中国组装大部分设备。此外，转向新市场或美国也会带来额外费用。</p>
</div><p>There is not much to like about Apple stock today. Its key product is seeing slowing growth, the profitable services segment is under fire, and it trades at an expensive valuation. Add tariff risk, and there is no good reason to buy the dip on Apple stock today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天关于苹果股票没有太多值得喜欢的地方。其关键产品增长放缓，盈利的服务部门受到冲击，且其估值昂贵。再加上关税风险，今天没有理由购买苹果股票的下跌。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy the Dip on Apple Stock This Year?

- 苹果股价自 2024 年底约 260 美元后进入熊市，2025 年下跌 25%。  
- 投资者担忧关税、收入增长放缓及反垄断诉讼影响未来盈利。  
- 苹果的服务部门面临威胁，且市盈率高于同行，风险加大。  

今年是否应该在苹果股票下跌时买入？