<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.94%) 的股票为那些足够早入场的投资者带来了改变人生的收益。它的涨幅在其整个生命周期内接近 200,000%，在过去 10 年中上涨了 900%。</p>
<p>每个人都在谈论它今天在人工智能 (AI) 方面的作为，以及这如何能推动销售增长。虽然有巨大的长期机会，但亚马逊的股票在未来五年内能否翻倍？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE5NjAvYW1hem9uLWxvY2tlci5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE5NjAvYW1hem9uLWxvY2tlci5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
<h2>各种增长驱动因素</h2>
<p>在所有的人工智能炒作中，我们不能忘记亚马逊目前的主要业务，至少在现在是电子商务，2025 年第一季度的销售额为 940 亿美元，占总收入的 60% 以上。</p>
<p>该公司在美国电子商务市场占据主导地位，并采取多项措施来保护这一护城河，保持其主导地位。其 Prime 会员依赖这一业务来满足他们的基本购买需求。它控制着美国电子商务市场约 40% 的份额，而第二大竞争对手 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 仅占约 6%。</p>
<p>首席执行官安迪·贾西表示，尽管可能会受到新关税的影响，但在不确定性时，消费者往往会选择他们信任的零售商。而且，其庞大的卖家基础和产品种类意味着消费者很可能在其平台上找到所需商品及其想要的价格。</p>
<p>和往常一样，亚马逊在 2025 年第一季度报告了交付速度的提升，并对其物流网络进行了多项更改以保持这一速度。它从全国网络转变为区域网络，将更多畅销产品靠近更多消费者，并在整个业务中使用人工智能来确定快速且便宜的运输选项。</p>
<p>该公司正在一个试点配送中心测试新流程，该流程将处理时间缩短了 25%，并有望在高峰期实现 25% 的成本节省。</p>
<p>根据 Statista 的数据，电子商务整体预计到 2029 年的年均复合增长率 (CAGR) 为 8%，作为行业领导者，这一增长大部分将落在亚马逊的平台上。</p>
<p>除了电子商务，该公司还推出了一个极为成功的广告业务，利用其无与伦比的电子商务平台为消费者提供广告曝光。它还通过其广告业务在 Prime Video 上提供了一个支持广告的流媒体层，目前的结果非常强劲。</p>
<h2>下一个技术前沿</h2>
<p>该公司目前在人工智能方面看到了最大的机会，近年来它在电子商务中使用人工智能来确定消费者偏好，并展示消费者正在寻找的产品。这导致了更高的销售转化率和更低的退货率，因为消费者找到了他们真正想要的东西。它更进一步，通过展示价格和功能的并排比较来提升用户体验。</p>
<p>但最具突破性的领域是亚马逊网络服务 (AWS)，这是其云计算业务，多年来一直是一个令人难以置信的增长驱动因素。尽管过去几年销售增长率从 30% 的百分比大幅放缓至中高十几，但 AWS 仍然占公司总运营收入的绝大部分——在第一季度占 63%。这也是管理层推出其生成式人工智能业务的地方，他们认为这是未来的潮流。</p>
<p>人工智能业务已经是一个数十亿美元的业务，但管理层认为它将更高。随着技术成为所有应用开发的标准组成部分，更多的商业客户将需要进入云端，而大多数应用开发都在云端进行。</p>
<p>亚马逊在云服务方面处于领先地位，占据市场的 30%，这将为 AWS 提供推动力，并且其自身业务也在快速增长。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的股票能涨多高？</h2>
<p>假设股票维持当前估值，价格翻倍意味着收入翻倍。要在五年内实现收入翻倍，销售额只需以 6% 的年均复合增长率增长，这低于其当前的增长水平。</p>
<p>不仅在未来五年内股票翻倍是可能的，如果其年均复合增长率高于 6% 或其估值上升，翻倍的速度也可能更快。该股票的市盈率 (P/E) 为 35，接近其低点，给了它一定的估值扩张空间。无论如何，亚马逊在未来五年看起来都是一个稳健的增长投资。</p>

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>亚马逊的股票经历了显著的增长，生命周期内的涨幅接近 200,000%。该公司在美国电子商务市场占据主导地位，市场份额达到 40%，并正在利用人工智能来提升销售和物流。预计到 2029 年，电子商务的年均增长率将达到 8%，在这种情况下，亚马逊的收入在五年内可能翻倍，假设年均增长率为 6%。该股票目前的市盈率为 35，具有估值扩张的潜力，使其成为一个强劲的增长前景</p>

<p>The stock of <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.94%) has delivered life-changing gains for investors who got in early enough. It's up nearly 200,000% over its lifetime and 900% over the past 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.94%) 的股票为那些足够早入场的投资者带来了改变人生的收益。它的涨幅在其整个生命周期内接近 200,000%，在过去 10 年中上涨了 900%。</p>
</div><p>Everyone is talking about what it's doing in artificial intelligence (AI) today and how that could jump-start sales growth. There's a huge long-term opportunity, but can Amazon stock double over the next five years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每个人都在谈论它今天在人工智能 (AI) 方面的作为，以及这如何能推动销售增长。虽然有巨大的长期机会，但亚马逊的股票在未来五年内能否翻倍？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjE5NjAvYW1hem9uLWxvY2tlci5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821960%2Famazon-locker.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
</div><h2>Growth drivers everywhere</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>各种增长驱动因素</h2>
</div><p>With all of the AI hype, let's not forget that Amazon's main business, for now at least, is e-commerce, where sales were $94 billion in the 2025 first quarter, accounting for more than 60% of total revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在所有的人工智能炒作中，我们不能忘记亚马逊目前的主要业务，至少在现在是电子商务，2025 年第一季度的销售额为 940 亿美元，占总收入的 60% 以上。</p>
</div><p>The company has a hold on U.S. e-commerce, and it's taking many actions to protect that moat and keep its dominant spot. Its Prime members count on that part of the business for their essentials purchases and more. It controls about 40% of the total U.S. e-commerce market, with the next-highest competitor, <strong>Walmart</strong>, at only around 6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司在美国电子商务市场占据主导地位，并采取多项措施来保护这一护城河，保持其主导地位。其 Prime 会员依赖这一业务来满足他们的基本购买需求。它控制着美国电子商务市场约 40% 的份额，而第二大竞争对手 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 仅占约 6%。</p>
</div><p>CEO Andy Jassy said that although it could be affected by new tariffs, shoppers tend to choose retailers they trust when there's uncertainty. And its huge base of sellers and product assortment mean that shoppers are likely to find the items they need at the price they want on its platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官安迪·贾西表示，尽管可能会受到新关税的影响，但在不确定性时，消费者往往会选择他们信任的零售商。而且，其庞大的卖家基础和产品种类意味着消费者很可能在其平台上找到所需商品及其想要的价格。</p>
</div><p>As usual, Amazon reported increasing delivery speed in the 2025 first quarter, and it has made a number of changes to its logistics network to keep that up. It changed from a national network to a regional one, it keeps more of its highest-selling products closer to more shoppers, and uses AI throughout its business to determine fast and cheap shipping options.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>和往常一样，亚马逊在 2025 年第一季度报告了交付速度的提升，并对其物流网络进行了多项更改以保持这一速度。它从全国网络转变为区域网络，将更多畅销产品靠近更多消费者，并在整个业务中使用人工智能来确定快速且便宜的运输选项。</p>
</div><p>The company is testing new processes in a pilot distribution center that's cutting 25% of processing time and is on track to deliver 25% cost savings at peak times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司正在一个试点配送中心测试新流程，该流程将处理时间缩短了 25%，并有望在高峰期实现 25% 的成本节省。</p>
</div><p>E-commerce overall is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% through 2029, according to Statista, and as the leader in the industry, much of that will land on Amazon's platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Statista 的数据，电子商务整体预计到 2029 年的年均复合增长率 (CAGR) 为 8%，作为行业领导者，这一增长大部分将落在亚马逊的平台上。</p>
</div><p>Beyond e-commerce, the company has launched a hugely successful advertising business that leverages its unmatched e-commerce platform for consumer exposure to ads. It also now offers an ad-supported streaming tier on Prime Video through its ad business, with strong results so far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了电子商务，该公司还推出了一个极为成功的广告业务，利用其无与伦比的电子商务平台为消费者提供广告曝光。它还通过其广告业务在 Prime Video 上提供了一个支持广告的流媒体层，目前的结果非常强劲。</p>
</div><h2>The next tech frontier</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>下一个技术前沿</h2>
</div><p>The company sees its biggest opportunities right now in AI, which it has used in e-commerce for years to determine consumer preferences and show products that shoppers are looking for. That leads to greater sales conversion and lower returns, since consumers find what they actually want. It takes that a step further by showing side-by-side comparisons on price and features.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司目前在人工智能方面看到了最大的机会，近年来它在电子商务中使用人工智能来确定消费者偏好，并展示消费者正在寻找的产品。这导致了更高的销售转化率和更低的退货率，因为消费者找到了他们真正想要的东西。它更进一步，通过展示价格和功能的并排比较来提升用户体验。</p>
</div><p>But the breakout segment is Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud computing business, which has been an incredible growth driver for years. And although sales have drastically decelerated over the past few years from percentage growth in the 30s to the mid to high teens, AWS is still responsible for the majority of total company operating income -- 63% in the first quarter. It's also where management is releasing its generative AI business, which it sees as the wave of the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但最具突破性的领域是亚马逊网络服务 (AWS)，这是其云计算业务，多年来一直是一个令人难以置信的增长驱动因素。尽管过去几年销售增长率从 30% 的百分比大幅放缓至中高十几，但 AWS 仍然占公司总运营收入的绝大部分——在第一季度占 63%。这也是管理层推出其生成式人工智能业务的地方，他们认为这是未来的潮流。</p>
</div><p>The AI operation is already a multibillion-dollar business, but management sees it going much higher. As the technology becomes a standard component of all app development, more business clients will need to get onto the cloud, where most of the app development is happening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能业务已经是一个数十亿美元的业务，但管理层认为它将更高。随着技术成为所有应用开发的标准组成部分，更多的商业客户将需要进入云端，而大多数应用开发都在云端进行。</p>
</div><p>Amazon has a lead in cloud services, with 30% of the market, and this should provide a boost for AWS in addition to exploding as its own business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在云服务方面处于领先地位，占据市场的 30%，这将为 AWS 提供推动力，并且其自身业务也在快速增长。</p>
</div><h2>How high can Amazon stock go?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的股票能涨多高？</h2>
</div><p>Assuming the stock maintains its current valuation, doubling in price means doubling revenue. To double revenue in five years, it would need to increase sales by a CAGR of only 6%, which is lower than its current growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假设股票维持当前估值，价格翻倍意味着收入翻倍。要在五年内实现收入翻倍，销售额只需以 6% 的年均复合增长率增长，这低于其当前的增长水平。</p>
</div><p>Not only is it possible for the stock to double over the next five years, but it also can do it even faster if its CAGR is higher than 6%, or if its valuation goes up. The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 35, close to its lows, giving it room for some valuation expansion. In any case, Amazon looks like a solid bet for growth over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不仅在未来五年内股票翻倍是可能的，如果其年均复合增长率高于 6% 或其估值上升，翻倍的速度也可能更快。该股票的市盈率 (P/E) 为 35，接近其低点，给了它一定的估值扩张空间。无论如何，亚马逊在未来五年看起来都是一个稳健的增长投资。</p>
</div>

Can Amazon Stock Double by 2030?

- 亚马逊股票自上市以来上涨近 200,000%，过去十年上涨 900%。  
- 2025 年第一季度，亚马逊电商销售额达 940 亿美元，占总收入的 60%。  
- 公司在云计算和人工智能领域的增长潜力巨大，预计未来五年有望实现收入翻倍。  

亚马逊的股票能否在 2030 年之前翻倍？