<p>今年市场对 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 2.22%) 并不感到兴奋。在特朗普的 “解放日” 公告后，其股票大幅下跌，因为其 iPhone 主要在海外生产，而其人工智能 (AI) 升级表现平平。尽管 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 开始回升，苹果股票年初至今仍下跌 21%。</p>
<p>市场的看法真的有那么糟糕吗？在你做决定之前，这里有一个指标你应该看看。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIyODAvcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtYS1zbWFydHBob25lLWFuZC1lYXJwaG9uZXMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIyODAvcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtYS1zbWFydHBob25lLWFuZC1lYXJwaG9uZXMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>苹果与生态系统</h2>
<p>苹果拥有广泛的产品和服务生态系统，能够产生长期的忠诚度和参与度。该公司一直专注于用户体验，提供设计精良且功能齐全的产品。iPhone 是其主要产品，流通量超过 230 万部，用户升级的比例较高。</p>
<p>过去几年 iPhone 的销售情况有些波动，因为在疫情开始时，消费者购买了更多手机，增长也随之放缓。在 2025 财年第二季度（截至 3 月 29 日），iPhone 的销售仅比去年增长了 2%。然而，这些用户在未来几年将需要新手机，预计增长周期将回归历史正常水平。</p>
<p>苹果能够通过流媒体和健身应用等高利润服务来实现用户的货币化，从而增强了公司的盈利能力。随着用户与苹果平台的互动增多，这种生态系统形成了一个积极的循环。第二季度服务收入同比增长 12%，每股收益增长 8%。</p>
<p>这可能是苹果在人工智能领域的增长速度慢于投资者预期的原因。与 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 等其他人工智能公司不同，苹果的人工智能平台 Apple Intelligence 是面向消费者的服务，而不是为开发者提供的平台或产品。与其生态系统的其他部分一样，苹果的兴趣在于生产增强用户界面的工具，以保持客户满意。苹果并不是那种会为了炒作而推出新产品或功能的公司。它注重质量，这也是其产品价格昂贵的原因，对于大多数用户来说，这些产品是值得的。</p>
<p>这种生态系统创造了 “粘性”，使苹果成为一家优秀的公司。沃伦·巴菲特曾形容它为 “非常、非常、非常特别的产品，拥有极其广泛的生态系统，且产品极具粘性。”</p>
<p>生态系统意味着客户几乎不需要在苹果之外寻找任何与科技相关的东西。他们可以在 Apple Podcasts 上收听内容，在 Apple TV+ 上进行流媒体播放，通过 Apple Pay 进行购物，并使用备受赞誉的 iPhone 相机拍照。Apple Intelligence 将通过统一模型影响这些功能，应该能在整个平台上提供好处。</p>
<h2>早期参与与长期回报</h2>
<p>鉴于这种粘性生态系统，每位苹果投资者都应该关注一个指标，这对苹果的长期成功有利。根据 2025 年春季 <strong>Piper Sandler</strong> 的青少年调查，88% 的青少年拥有 iPhone；其中 25% 计划明年升级到 iPhone 17，较去年 22% 的比例有所上升。</p>
<p>这就是苹果粘性生态系统的实际表现。它吸引了年轻客户，随着他们与平台的互动并成为忠实粉丝，这将成为长期的收入来源。通过捕捉年轻市场，苹果在竞争对手中获得了先机，并且已经取得了巨大的领先优势。</p>
<p>尽管开发者和投资者对 Apple Intelligence 的现状感到失望，但年轻用户对其产品感到满意。这是苹果需要取悦的受众，做好这一点对于保持他们在生态系统中的参与尤为重要。</p>
<p>尽管苹果股票目前可能在下滑，但这是一项令人难以置信的长期增长驱动力，应该增强你对公司前景的信心。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的股票今年下跌了 21%，落后于标准普尔 500 指数，原因是对海外生产和人工智能升级的担忧。然而，公司的强大生态系统、高 iPhone 拥有率和服务收入增长表明了长期潜力。最近的一项调查显示，88% 的青少年拥有 iPhone，这表明了忠实的客户基础。尽管面临当前挑战，苹果对质量和用户体验的关注使其在未来增长中处于良好位置，成为一个引人注目的投资机会</p>

<p>The market hasn't been thrilled with <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 2.22%) this year. Its stock tanked after Trump's &#34;Liberation Day&#34; announcements, since its iPhones are predominantly made overseas, and its artificial intelligence (AI) upgrades have underwhelmed. Apple stock is trailing the market, down 21% year to date, even as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> is starting to climb again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年市场对 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 2.22%) 并不感到兴奋。在特朗普的 “解放日” 公告后，其股票大幅下跌，因为其 iPhone 主要在海外生产，而其人工智能 (AI) 升级表现平平。尽管 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 开始回升，苹果股票年初至今仍下跌 21%。</p>
</div><p>Is it as bad as the market thinks? Here's one metric you should see before you decide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场的看法真的有那么糟糕吗？在你做决定之前，这里有一个指标你应该看看。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIyODAvcGVyc29uLXdpdGgtYS1zbWFydHBob25lLWFuZC1lYXJwaG9uZXMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822280%2Fperson-with-a-smartphone-and-earphones.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple and the ecosystem</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果与生态系统</h2>
</div><p>Apple has a wide ecosystem of products and services that generates long-term loyalty and engagement. The company has always been focused on the user experience, with well-designed products that work. The iPhone is its premier product, with more than 2.3 million in circulation, and fans tend to upgrade at high rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果拥有广泛的产品和服务生态系统，能够产生长期的忠诚度和参与度。该公司一直专注于用户体验，提供设计精良且功能齐全的产品。iPhone 是其主要产品，流通量超过 230 万部，用户升级的比例较高。</p>
</div><p>There's been some lumpiness with iPhone sales over the past few years, since customers bought more phones when the pandemic started, and growth has tapered off. In the fiscal 2025 second quarter (ended March 29), iPhone sales inched up only 2% over last year. However, these users will be due for new phones over the next few years, steering the growth cycle back to historical norms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几年 iPhone 的销售情况有些波动，因为在疫情开始时，消费者购买了更多手机，增长也随之放缓。在 2025 财年第二季度（截至 3 月 29 日），iPhone 的销售仅比去年增长了 2%。然而，这些用户在未来几年将需要新手机，预计增长周期将回归历史正常水平。</p>
</div><p>Apple has been able to monetize its users with higher-margin services like streaming and fitness apps, which lead to a stronger bottom line. As users engage more with Apple's platform, it reinforces the ecosystem in a positive cycle. Service revenue was up 12% year over year in the second quarter, and earnings per share increased 8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果能够通过流媒体和健身应用等高利润服务来实现用户的货币化，从而增强了公司的盈利能力。随着用户与苹果平台的互动增多，这种生态系统形成了一个积极的循环。第二季度服务收入同比增长 12%，每股收益增长 8%。</p>
</div><p>This may be why Apple has been slower on the AI uptick than investors have been expecting. Unlike other AI companies like <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Amazon</strong>, Apple's AI platform, Apple Intelligence, is a consumer-facing service rather than a platform or product for developers. Like the rest of its ecosystem, its interest is in producing tools that enhance the user interface and keep its customers happy. Apple is not the kind of company that's going to launch new products or features for hype. It's all about quality, which is why its products are expensive, and for most of its users, worth it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能是苹果在人工智能领域的增长速度慢于投资者预期的原因。与 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 等其他人工智能公司不同，苹果的人工智能平台 Apple Intelligence 是面向消费者的服务，而不是为开发者提供的平台或产品。与其生态系统的其他部分一样，苹果的兴趣在于生产增强用户界面的工具，以保持客户满意。苹果并不是那种会为了炒作而推出新产品或功能的公司。它注重质量，这也是其产品价格昂贵的原因，对于大多数用户来说，这些产品是值得的。</p>
</div><p>This ecosystem creates a &#34;stickiness&#34; that makes Apple a great company. Warren Buffett has described it as a &#34;very, very, very special product, and which has an enormously widespread ecosystem, and the product's extremely sticky.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种生态系统创造了 “粘性”，使苹果成为一家优秀的公司。沃伦·巴菲特曾形容它为 “非常、非常、非常特别的产品，拥有极其广泛的生态系统，且产品极具粘性。”</p>
</div><p>The ecosystem means that customers don't have to go outside of Apple for almost anything tech-related. They can listen to content on Apple Podcasts, stream on Apple TV+, make purchases with Apple Pay, and take pictures with the highly acclaimed iPhone camera. Apple Intelligence will impact these functions with a unified model that should provide benefits across the platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生态系统意味着客户几乎不需要在苹果之外寻找任何与科技相关的东西。他们可以在 Apple Podcasts 上收听内容，在 Apple TV+ 上进行流媒体播放，通过 Apple Pay 进行购物，并使用备受赞誉的 iPhone 相机拍照。Apple Intelligence 将通过统一模型影响这些功能，应该能在整个平台上提供好处。</p>
</div><h2>Early engagement and long-term rewards</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>早期参与与长期回报</h2>
</div><p>Given the sticky ecosystem, there's a metric every Apple investor should see that bodes well for Apple's long-term success. According to the spring 2025 <strong>Piper Sandler</strong> Taking Stock With Teens survey, 88% of teens own an iPhone; 25% of them plan to upgrade to an iPhone 17 next year, up from 22% last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于这种粘性生态系统，每位苹果投资者都应该关注一个指标，这对苹果的长期成功有利。根据 2025 年春季 <strong>Piper Sandler</strong> 的青少年调查，88% 的青少年拥有 iPhone；其中 25% 计划明年升级到 iPhone 17，较去年 22% 的比例有所上升。</p>
</div><p>This is Apple's sticky ecosystem in action. It's attracting younger customers, and as they engage with the platform and become loyal fans, that's a long-term revenue stream. It has a head start on competitors by capturing a younger market, and it has already has a huge lead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是苹果粘性生态系统的实际表现。它吸引了年轻客户，随着他们与平台的互动并成为忠实粉丝，这将成为长期的收入来源。通过捕捉年轻市场，苹果在竞争对手中获得了先机，并且已经取得了巨大的领先优势。</p>
</div><p>While developers and investors bemoan the state of Apple Intelligence, young users are satisfied with their products. This is the audience that Apple needs to please, and getting it right is all the more important to keep them in the ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管开发者和投资者对 Apple Intelligence 的现状感到失望，但年轻用户对其产品感到满意。这是苹果需要取悦的受众，做好这一点对于保持他们在生态系统中的参与尤为重要。</p>
</div><p>Apple stock may be slipping right now, but this is an incredible long-term growth driver, and it should boost your confidence in the company's prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果股票目前可能在下滑，但这是一项令人难以置信的长期增长驱动力，应该增强你对公司前景的信心。</p>
</div>

Worried About Apple Slowing Down? 1 Must-See Metric That Might Change Your Mind.

- 苹果公司股票今年下跌 21%，主要因海外生产和 AI 升级不及预期。  
- 其生态系统吸引年轻用户，88% 青少年拥有 iPhone，25% 计划升级。  
- 服务收入同比增长 12%，显示出长期增长潜力。  

担心苹果公司发展放缓？有一个关键指标可能会改变你的看法