<p>比特币（BTC -1.40%）在过去十年的上涨令人惊叹。在其存在期间经历了多次超过 50% 的回调后，这种数字资产屡次强势反弹，创下新高。如今，它已成为华尔街和华盛顿公认的金融资产，大大降低了其变得无关紧要的可能性。</p>
<p>迟到的投资者可能会想，这种领先的加密货币在过去五年中价格上涨了 1,030%，在展望未来时是否仍有显著的上涨空间。你应该在比特币当前价格低于 110,000 美元（截至 6 月 22 日）时购买吗？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIzNjIvYnV5aW5nLWJpdGNvaW4tb24tc21hcnRwaG9uZS1jcnlwdG8tYXBwLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIzNjIvYnV5aW5nLWJpdGNvaW4tb24tc21hcnRwaG9uZS1jcnlwdG8tYXBwLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>等待突破</h2>
<p>在过去六周中，比特币主要在 100,000 到 110,000 美元的区间内交易。在前一个月左右（从四月初到五月初）价格飙升后，比特币现在似乎在等待向上的突破。有一些潜在的催化因素值得关注。</p>
<p>第一个是美联储可能会降息。这表明货币政策更加宽松，鼓励投资者承担更多风险，以期获得更好的回报。</p>
<p>另一个催化因素是比特币在减半后通常经历的持续牛市。上一次事件发生在 2024 年 4 月，因此我们仍可能在今年年底之前看到比特币创下新高。</p>
<p>当然，宏观和地缘政治力量也在关注之中。任何贸易解决方案都可能为比特币等风险资产提供提振。此外，中东紧张局势的缓解可能有助于提升投资者信心。</p>
<h2>比特币的长期论点</h2>
<p>虽然投资者容易关注短期价格波动，但长期投资者明白，最好关注未来五年及更长时间。当考虑在比特币价格低于 110,000 美元时是否购买时，重要的是你对这种数字资产在未来的看涨程度。</p>
<p>在我看来，所有迹象都表明比特币作为一种更广泛拥有的金融资产正在朝着正确的方向发展。一个关键变量是当前的货币体系。特别是，美国日益上升的债务负担可能会间接推动比特币价格的上涨。</p>
<p>美国联邦债务目前高达惊人的 37 万亿美元。财政赤字没有尽头，且可能继续增长，这可能导致对美元和国债市场的信任开始减弱。因此，随着财政债务的上升，货币供应量也在增加。这导致美元持续贬值。</p>
<p>比特币与财政状况的关系是一个值得思考的问题。为什么比特币的价格会受益于不断增长的债务和货币供应？虽然显然没有直接关系，但相关性很强。</p>
<p>宏观经济学家 Lyn Alden 与比特币研究员 Sam Callahan 进行了一项研究，显示比特币与全球流动性增加的相关性是多么紧密。这种联系比任何其他主要资产类别都要强。如果由于货币供应和流动性增加，美元每年变得越来越不值钱，那么拥有供应固定的比特币就变得极具吸引力。尽管其波动性较大，购买和持有这种稀缺资产在历史上被证明是明智之举。</p>
<p>当然，另一个重要因素是，越来越多的人——无论是个人、资产管理专业人士、企业高管还是政治家——花更多时间了解比特币的特性以及为什么拥有它是有吸引力的。这似乎正在发生。</p>
<p>因此，考虑在比特币交易价格低于 110,000 美元时购买是一个明智的选择。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特币在过去十年中经历了显著的上涨，过去五年价格上涨了 1,030%。目前交易价格在$100,000 到$110,000 之间，可能的突破催化剂包括美联储可能的降息以及减半事件后典型的牛市。长期投资者应考虑比特币与美国债务和货币供应上升的相关性，这可能推动其价值上升。随着越来越多的个人和专业人士了解比特币，现在可能是一个战略性的投资时机，因为价格仍低于$110,000</p>

<p><strong>Bitcoin</strong>'s (BTC -1.40%) rise over the past decade has been amazing to watch. After multiple drawdowns of more than 50% throughout its existence, the digital asset has repeatedly come roaring back to reach fresh highs. And now, it has become a legitimate financial asset, both on Wall Street and in Washington, drastically reducing the likelihood that it becomes irrelevant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币（BTC -1.40%）在过去十年的上涨令人惊叹。在其存在期间经历了多次超过 50% 的回调后，这种数字资产屡次强势反弹，创下新高。如今，它已成为华尔街和华盛顿公认的金融资产，大大降低了其变得无关紧要的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Investors who are late to the party might be wondering whether this leading cryptocurrency, whose price has risen 1,030% in the past five years, still has meaningful upside as we look to the future. Should you buy Bitcoin while its price is currently below $110,000 (as of June 22)?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迟到的投资者可能会想，这种领先的加密货币在过去五年中价格上涨了 1,030%，在展望未来时是否仍有显著的上涨空间。你应该在比特币当前价格低于 110,000 美元（截至 6 月 22 日）时购买吗？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIzNjIvYnV5aW5nLWJpdGNvaW4tb24tc21hcnRwaG9uZS1jcnlwdG8tYXBwLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822362%2Fbuying-bitcoin-on-smartphone-crypto-app.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Waiting to break out</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>等待突破</h2>
</div><p>Over the past six weeks, Bitcoin has been trading primarily within the $100,000 to $110,000 range. After the price soared in the previous month or so (from early April to early May), Bitcoin now appears to be waiting for a breakout to the upside. There are some potential catalysts to keep in mind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去六周中，比特币主要在 100,000 到 110,000 美元的区间内交易。在前一个月左右（从四月初到五月初）价格飙升后，比特币现在似乎在等待向上的突破。有一些潜在的催化因素值得关注。</p>
</div><p>The first is the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. This signals looser and more accommodative monetary policy that incentivizes investors to take on more risk in an effort to earn a better return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一个是美联储可能会降息。这表明货币政策更加宽松，鼓励投资者承担更多风险，以期获得更好的回报。</p>
</div><p>Another catalyst is the ongoing bull run that Bitcoin typically experiences in the 12 to 18 months following a halving. The last event happened in April 2024, so we could still see Bitcoin hit a new record high before the end of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个催化因素是比特币在减半后通常经历的持续牛市。上一次事件发生在 2024 年 4 月，因此我们仍可能在今年年底之前看到比特币创下新高。</p>
</div><p>And of course, macro and geopolitical forces are in focus. Any trade resolution could provide a boost to risk assets such as Bitcoin. What's more, easing tensions in the Middle East could help improve investor confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，宏观和地缘政治力量也在关注之中。任何贸易解决方案都可能为比特币等风险资产提供提振。此外，中东紧张局势的缓解可能有助于提升投资者信心。</p>
</div><h2>Bitcoin's long-term thesis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币的长期论点</h2>
</div><p>While it's easy for investors to think about short-term price movements, long-term investors understand that it's best to maintain a focus on the next five years and beyond. What matters when considering buying Bitcoin while it's below $110,000 is whether you are bullish on the digital asset far into the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然投资者容易关注短期价格波动，但长期投资者明白，最好关注未来五年及更长时间。当考虑在比特币价格低于 110,000 美元时是否购买时，重要的是你对这种数字资产在未来的看涨程度。</p>
</div><p>In my opinion, all signs point to Bitcoin trending in the right direction as a more widely owned financial asset. One key variable to consider is the current monetary system. In particular, the U.S.'s rising debt burden could indirectly propel Bitcoin's price going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，所有迹象都表明比特币作为一种更广泛拥有的金融资产正在朝着正确的方向发展。一个关键变量是当前的货币体系。特别是，美国日益上升的债务负担可能会间接推动比特币价格的上涨。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. federal debt currently stands at a jaw-dropping $37 trillion. With no end in sight to the fiscal deficit and the likelihood that it will continue to grow, trust in the U.S. dollar and the Treasury market might start to weaken. Consequently, as fiscal debt has risen, so has the money supply. This has resulted in the U.S. dollar continuously losing value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国联邦债务目前高达惊人的 37 万亿美元。财政赤字没有尽头，且可能继续增长，这可能导致对美元和国债市场的信任开始减弱。因此，随着财政债务的上升，货币供应量也在增加。这导致美元持续贬值。</p>
</div><p>The question of how Bitcoin relates to the fiscal situation is something to think about. Why should Bitcoin's price benefit from growing debt and money supply? While there is obviously no direct relationship, the correlation is strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币与财政状况的关系是一个值得思考的问题。为什么比特币的价格会受益于不断增长的债务和货币供应？虽然显然没有直接关系，但相关性很强。</p>
</div><p>Macroeconomist Lyn Alden conducted a study with Bitcoin researcher Sam Callahan, which showed how closely correlated Bitcoin is with the increase in global liquidity. The connection is stronger than any other major asset class. If the U.S. dollar becomes worth less and less with each passing year, thanks to the growth of the money supply and added liquidity, then it becomes extremely compelling to own Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply. Buying and holding this scarce asset has historically proven to be a smart move despite its volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>宏观经济学家 Lyn Alden 与比特币研究员 Sam Callahan 进行了一项研究，显示比特币与全球流动性增加的相关性是多么紧密。这种联系比任何其他主要资产类别都要强。如果由于货币供应和流动性增加，美元每年变得越来越不值钱，那么拥有供应固定的比特币就变得极具吸引力。尽管其波动性较大，购买和持有这种稀缺资产在历史上被证明是明智之举。</p>
</div><p>Of course, what also matters is that more people -- whether that be individuals, asset management professionals, executives, or politicians -- spend more time learning about Bitcoin's properties and what makes it compelling to own. This appears to be happening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，另一个重要因素是，越来越多的人——无论是个人、资产管理专业人士、企业高管还是政治家——花更多时间了解比特币的特性以及为什么拥有它是有吸引力的。这似乎正在发生。</p>
</div><p>That's why it's a smart move to consider buying Bitcoin as it trades below $110,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，考虑在比特币交易价格低于 110,000 美元时购买是一个明智的选择。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Bitcoin While It's Under $110,000?

- 比特币在过去十年中上涨了 1,030%，成为合法金融资产。  
- 当前价格在 $100,000 到 $110,000 之间，可能面临突破。  
- 美国债务上升和货币供应增加可能推动比特币价格上涨。  

当比特币价格低于 110,000 美元时，是否值得购买？