<p>Wayne Cole 对欧洲和全球市场的前景展望</p><p>在世界已经充满不确定性的情况下，特朗普总统却让美国卷入了另一场中东冲突。总统通过社交媒体宣布对另一个国家发动攻击并不常见，尤其是 “炸弹” 这个词被用全大写字母。</p><p>美国政府表示并未处于战争状态，如果伊朗达成和平，也不会升级。然而，它也曾表示并不旨在推翻伊朗政权，直到特朗普在社交媒体上发布了关于这一前景的内容。</p><p>目前，局势在德黑兰手中，伊朗尚未对任何美国目标采取行动，尽管有报道称其议会已批准尝试关闭霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗媒体表示，这一举动需要最高国家安全委员会的批准。</p><p>Polymarket 甚至对伊朗是否能够关闭海峡进行了博彩，目前的概率为 47%。因此，突然间每个市场评论员都成了如何关闭航运通道、破坏掩体炸弹的有效性以及铀浓缩复杂性的专家。</p><p>市场的立场是希望这次美国干预不会升级，也许如果伊朗的核野心真的被推迟多年，甚至可能使该地区更安全。</p><p>油价上涨近 2%，但远低于早期五个月的高点，分析师指出如果他们愿意，OPEC 有大量额外供应可以增加。</p><p>华尔街股指期货下跌 0.3%，开盘时下跌 1%，而欧洲期货下跌约 0.4%。美元对欧元和日元略微走强，反映出欧盟和日本对进口石油和液化天然气的依赖，以及美国作为净出口国的地位。</p><p>国债收益率小幅上升，因此安全避险的需求不多，而美联储基金期货小幅下跌，可能是因为能源成本的持续上涨可能会加大通胀压力，正值关税影响价格之际。</p><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在周二和周三面对国会的质询，讨论所有这些问题，以及特朗普威胁解雇他的相关问题。鲍威尔如何回应美联储理事沃勒突然支持 7 月降息的立场也将颇具看点，因为在此之前，FOMC 的成员似乎都在唱同一首谨慎的赞美诗。</p><p>市场仍然暗示 7 月降息的概率仅为 16%，更倾向于 9 月降息的 70% 押注。 (0#USDIRPR)</p><p>可能影响周一市场的关键发展：</p><ul><li>欧盟和英国 6 月份 PMI 数据</li><li>欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的开场发言</li><li>美联储成员沃勒、鲍曼、古尔斯比和库格勒的出席</li></ul><p>石油供应冲击</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/189cba49748bc1b9f61ee2a29edebe9a?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="2528" height="860" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/189cba49748bc1b9f61ee2a29edebe9a"/></figure><p>OPEC 的备用石油生产能力</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/82b8113c3fba90127a135991b0efded2?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="938" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/82b8113c3fba90127a135991b0efded2"/></figure><p>中东海湾每月原油出口</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/86b1e18d22984da5a208d997dca016b1?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="974" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/86b1e18d22984da5a208d997dca016b1"/></figure><p>（作者：Wayne Cole；编辑：Edmund Klamann）</p>

<p>美国正面临与伊朗的潜在冲突，特朗普总统通过社交媒体暗示可能采取军事行动。伊朗议会可能试图关闭霍尔木兹海峡，引发市场担忧。油价上涨近 2%，而华尔街期货下跌。美元对欧元和日元走强，反映出对能源进口的依赖。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在通胀担忧和潜在降息的背景下向国会发表讲话。影响市场的关键因素包括欧盟和英国的 PMI、欧洲央行的言论以及 OPEC 的石油供应能力</p>

<p>A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wayne Cole 对欧洲和全球市场的前景展望</p>
</div><p>As if there wasn’t enough uncertainty in the world already, President Trump has to get the United States embroiled in another Middle East conflict. It’s not often a president announces an attack on another country via social media, or that the word “bombs” is used in all caps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在世界已经充满不确定性的情况下，特朗普总统却让美国卷入了另一场中东冲突。总统通过社交媒体宣布对另一个国家发动攻击并不常见，尤其是 “炸弹” 这个词被用全大写字母。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. administration says it’s not at war and it will not escalate if Iran makes peace. Then again, it also said it was not aiming at regime change in Iran, until Trump posted on social media about that very prospect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国政府表示并未处于战争状态，如果伊朗达成和平，也不会升级。然而，它也曾表示并不旨在推翻伊朗政权，直到特朗普在社交媒体上发布了关于这一前景的内容。</p>
</div><p>For now the ball is in Tehran’s court and it has not yet struck at any U.S. site, although its parliament was reported to have approved an attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media said such a move would need approval by the Supreme National Security Council.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，局势在德黑兰手中，伊朗尚未对任何美国目标采取行动，尽管有报道称其议会已批准尝试关闭霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗媒体表示，这一举动需要最高国家安全委员会的批准。</p>
</div><p>Polymarket even makes a book on the chance of Iran managing to close the Strait, and that’s currently at 47%. So, suddenly every market commentator is an expert on how to close shipping lanes, the efficacy of bunker busting bombs and the intricacies of enriching uranium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polymarket 甚至对伊朗是否能够关闭海峡进行了博彩，目前的概率为 47%。因此，突然间每个市场评论员都成了如何关闭航运通道、破坏掩体炸弹的有效性以及铀浓缩复杂性的专家。</p>
</div><p>The market position is to hope this U.S. intervention will not escalate, and perhaps might even make the region safer should Iran’s nuclear ambitions really be set back by years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场的立场是希望这次美国干预不会升级，也许如果伊朗的核野心真的被推迟多年，甚至可能使该地区更安全。</p>
</div><p>Oil is up almost 2%, but well off early five-month peaks as analysts note OPEC has plenty of extra supply to add if they want.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价上涨近 2%，但远低于早期五个月的高点，分析师指出如果他们愿意，OPEC 有大量额外供应可以增加。</p>
</div><p>Wall St share futures are down 0.3%, having started with losses of 1%, while European futures are off 0.4% or so. The dollar is marginally firmer on the euro and yen, reflecting the reliance of the EU and Japan on imported oil and LNG, and the U.S. status as a net exporter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街股指期货下跌 0.3%，开盘时下跌 1%，而欧洲期货下跌约 0.4%。美元对欧元和日元略微走强，反映出欧盟和日本对进口石油和液化天然气的依赖，以及美国作为净出口国的地位。</p>
</div><p>Treasury yields are up slightly, so not many safe-haven bids there, while Fed fund futures are down a tick, likely on the risk a sustained rise in energy costs could add to inflationary pressure just as tariffs are being felt in prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国债收益率小幅上升，因此安全避险的需求不多，而美联储基金期货小幅下跌，可能是因为能源成本的持续上涨可能会加大通胀压力，正值关税影响价格之际。</p>
</div><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set for a grilling on all this when he faces Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, along with queries on Trump’s threats to fire him. It will also be interesting to see how Powell responds to Fed Governor Waller’s sudden embrace of a July rate cut, when it seemed the FOMC choir had all been singing from the same cautious hymn sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在周二和周三面对国会的质询，讨论所有这些问题，以及特朗普威胁解雇他的相关问题。鲍威尔如何回应美联储理事沃勒突然支持 7 月降息的立场也将颇具看点，因为在此之前，FOMC 的成员似乎都在唱同一首谨慎的赞美诗。</p>
</div><p>Markets imply still only a 16% chance of a July easing, preferring a 70% wager on a September move. (0#USDIRPR)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场仍然暗示 7 月降息的概率仅为 16%，更倾向于 9 月降息的 70% 押注。 (0#USDIRPR)</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能影响周一市场的关键发展：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>EU and UK PMIs for June</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>欧盟和英国 6 月份 PMI 数据</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Introductory remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的开场发言</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Appearances by Fed members Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee and Kugler</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美联储成员沃勒、鲍曼、古尔斯比和库格勒的出席</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Oil supply shocks</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>石油供应冲击</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/OIL-SUPPLY/znvnndgdevl/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/OIL-SUPPLY/znvnndgdevl/chart.png"/></p>
<p>OPEC spare oil production capacity</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OPEC 的备用石油生产能力</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/OPEC-OIL/lbpgzrxrwvq/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/OPEC-OIL/lbpgzrxrwvq/chart.png"/></p>
<p>Mideast Gulf monthly crude oil exports</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东海湾每月原油出口</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GULF-OIL/xmvjegwgdpr/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GULF-OIL/xmvjegwgdpr/chart.png"/></p>
<p>(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Edmund Klamann)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：Wayne Cole；编辑：Edmund Klamann）</p>
</div>

Now the ball is in Iran's court

- 美国总统特朗普宣布对中东的攻击，引发市场不确定性。  
- 伊朗尚未对美国目标采取行动，但其议会已批准关闭霍尔木兹海峡的尝试。  
- 油价上涨近 2%，但分析师指出 OPEC 有足够的额外供应。  

现在轮到伊朗采取行动