<p>菲利普·拉丰特是一位亿万富翁投资者，也是 Coatue Management 的联合创始人，该对冲基金专注于技术、医疗保健和加密货币等新兴主题的投资。</p>
<p>Coatue 最近举办了年度东西方会议，并在会议期间发布了一系列推动资本市场的研究成果——特别是人工智能（AI）革命。</p>
<p>然而，Coatue 也将一部分研究专注于 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 3.70%）在过去几年的表现，以及这款加密货币未来可能的发展方向。</p>
<p>事实上，Coatue 预测到 2030 年，比特币的市值可能达到 5.2 万亿美元。这不仅意味着比特币当前市值的 153% 的上涨空间，还暗示它可能在未来五年内成为全球第三大最有价值的资产，仅次于 <strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>英伟达</strong>，超过 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 等公司。</p>
<p>让我们探讨一下在未来五年内，什么因素可能推动比特币达到新高。更重要的是，我将详细介绍几种投资者可以参与比特币运动的不同方式。</p>
<h2>比特币可能正在成为主流金融资产</h2>
<p>在其历史的大部分时间里，比特币被标记为一种高度投机的资产——这也是有充分理由的。由于其过于明显的波动性、不断上升的采用率以及持续的监管不确定性，比特币并不像美元那样主流。</p>
<p>尽管如此，过去几年中，由于多种因素的结合，加密货币逐渐变得更加主流。</p>
<p>零售投资者对区块链技术表现出早期的热情，以及像比特币或 <strong>以太坊</strong> 这样的主要加密货币如何在现实世界中促进交易。</p>
<p>随着时间的推移，大型金融机构也逐渐接受去中心化金融（DeFi）协议在支付基础设施中的作用，以及比特币等资产可以作为对抗通货膨胀的工具——类似于黄金和某些其他替代资产的作用。</p>
<p>在金融交易之外的实用性方面，像 <strong>Strategy</strong>（前称 MicroStrategy）和 <strong>GameStop</strong> 这样的公司实际上已经收购了比特币，以增强其资产负债表。虽然从投资者的角度来看，这种举动存在争议，但将比特币与现金和短期投资一起持有，与几年前 <strong>Palantir</strong> 在其资产负债表上持有黄金的策略并没有太大不同。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI0NTEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE0OTIyNTAwNi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI0NTEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE0OTIyNTAwNi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>华尔街的一些人似乎同意拉丰特的观点</h2>
<p>Coatue 并不是华尔街上唯一预测比特币在未来几年将大幅上涨的公司。</p>
<p>不到一年前，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的汤姆·李预测比特币的短期价格目标在 150,000 美元到 250,000 美元之间。在最近一次接受 CNBC 的_ Squawk Box_采访时，李不仅重申了他的乐观观点，还声称考虑到比特币的有限供应及其相对于其他对冲工具（即黄金）的感知价值和不断演变的使用案例，其长期价格目标可能在 300 万美元左右——这意味着 63 万亿美元的市值。</p>
<p>Ark Invest 的凯西·伍德也预测比特币将有巨大的上涨空间。她对每个比特币 150 万美元的长期预测意味着 31 万亿美元的市值——远高于 Coatue 的预测。</p>
<h2>现在比特币是个好买入吗？</h2>
<p>从上述分析中最重要的结论不仅仅是知名投资者呼吁比特币价格大幅上涨。更重要的是理解比特币的固定供应赋予了该资产稀缺的感知价值，因此在经济不确定时期，接触该资产可能是有利的。</p>
<p>当然，比特币仍然是一种高度投机和波动的资产。如果直接接触比特币超出了你的风险承受能力，还有几种被动投资加密货币的方式。</p>
<p>首先，投资者可以购买现货比特币 ETF，如 <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust</strong> 或凯西·伍德的 <strong>ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Trust</strong>。这些基金跟踪比特币的价格波动，但不要求投资者直接购买加密货币。</p>
<p>更进一步，如果投资者希望持有与比特币有更隔离接触的资产，他们可以购买加密货币交易所的股票，如 <strong>Coinbase</strong> 或专注于加密的交易应用程序 <strong>Robinhood</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f41c620d6fc3ec9d832f7da6b0afb13b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f41c620d6fc3ec9d832f7da6b0afb13b.png"/></p>
<p>比特币价格数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>如上图所示，比特币及其一些代理在过去一年中表现优于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>、<strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 和黄金。然而，值得注意的是，整体市场和黄金的表现也相当不错。</p>
<p>考虑到这些动态，我确实认为对比特币的某种接触——无论是直接还是间接——可能是多元化投资组合的有用补充。话虽如此，我认为比特币或更广泛的加密货币机会尚未优于传统投资工具。</p>

亚马逊

特斯拉

<p>亿万富翁投资者菲利普·拉丰（Philippe Laffont），Coatue Management 的联合创始人，预测比特币到 2030 年可能达到 5.2 万亿美元的市值，可能会超过亚马逊、Meta 和特斯拉。这一预测与比特币作为金融资产的日益主流接受度相一致，受到零售和机构投资者的推动。其他华尔街分析师，如汤姆·李（Tom Lee）和凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood），也预测比特币将大幅上涨，目标价位在 15 万美元到 300 万美元之间。投资者可以通过比特币 ETF 或加密货币交易所的股票获得投资机会</p>

<p>Philippe Laffont is a billionaire investor and a co-founder of Coatue Management, a hedge fund that focuses its investments on emerging themes across technology, healthcare, and cryptocurrency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>菲利普·拉丰特是一位亿万富翁投资者，也是 Coatue Management 的联合创始人，该对冲基金专注于技术、医疗保健和加密货币等新兴主题的投资。</p>
</div><p>Coatue recently hosted its annual East Meets West conference, during which it published a number of findings that are fueling capital markets -- specifically, the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coatue 最近举办了年度东西方会议，并在会议期间发布了一系列推动资本市场的研究成果——特别是人工智能（AI）革命。</p>
</div><p>However, Coatue also dedicated a portion of its research to <strong>Bitcoin</strong>'s (BTC 3.70%) performance over the last several years, and where the cryptocurrency could be headed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Coatue 也将一部分研究专注于 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 3.70%）在过去几年的表现，以及这款加密货币未来可能的发展方向。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Coatue forecasts that Bitcoin could reach a market capitalization of $5.2 trillion by 2030. Not only does this imply 153% upside from Bitcoin's current market value, but it suggests that it could emerge as the third most valuable asset in the world during the next five years -- trailing only <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Nvidia</strong> and surpassing the likes of <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, and <strong>Tesla</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，Coatue 预测到 2030 年，比特币的市值可能达到 5.2 万亿美元。这不仅意味着比特币当前市值的 153% 的上涨空间，还暗示它可能在未来五年内成为全球第三大最有价值的资产，仅次于 <strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>英伟达</strong>，超过 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 等公司。</p>
</div><p>Let's explore what could fuel Bitcoin to new highs during the next five years. More importantly, I'll detail several different ways in which investors can invest in the Bitcoin movement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们探讨一下在未来五年内，什么因素可能推动比特币达到新高。更重要的是，我将详细介绍几种投资者可以参与比特币运动的不同方式。</p>
</div><h2>Bitcoin could be on its way to becoming a mainstream financial asset</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币可能正在成为主流金融资产</h2>
</div><p>For much of its history, Bitcoin has been labeled as a highly speculative asset -- and rightfully so. Between its overly pronounced volatility, rising adoption rates, and ongoing regulatory uncertainties, Bitcoin is not exactly as mainstream as the U.S. dollar, for example.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其历史的大部分时间里，比特币被标记为一种高度投机的资产——这也是有充分理由的。由于其过于明显的波动性、不断上升的采用率以及持续的监管不确定性，比特币并不像美元那样主流。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, cryptocurrency has gradually become more mainstream during the past several years thanks to a combination of factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，过去几年中，由于多种因素的结合，加密货币逐渐变得更加主流。</p>
</div><p>Retail investors showed early enthusiasm for blockchain technology and how prominent cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or <strong>Ethereum</strong> could be used to facilitate transactions in the real world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>零售投资者对区块链技术表现出早期的热情，以及像比特币或 <strong>以太坊</strong> 这样的主要加密货币如何在现实世界中促进交易。</p>
</div><p>Over time, large financial institutions have also become more receptive to the idea of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols playing a role in the world of payments infrastructure, as well as the idea that assets such as Bitcoin could act as hedges to inflation -- similar to the way gold and certain other alternative assets do.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着时间的推移，大型金融机构也逐渐接受去中心化金融（DeFi）协议在支付基础设施中的作用，以及比特币等资产可以作为对抗通货膨胀的工具——类似于黄金和某些其他替代资产的作用。</p>
</div><p>In terms of utility beyond that of financial transactions, companies such as <strong>Strategy</strong> (formerly known as MicroStrategy) and <strong>GameStop</strong> have actually acquired Bitcoin to augment their balance sheets. While such moves have been polarizing from the perspective of investors, holding Bitcoin alongside cash and short-term investments is not entirely unlike <strong>Palantir</strong>'s strategy of holding gold on its balance sheet a few years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在金融交易之外的实用性方面，像 <strong>Strategy</strong>（前称 MicroStrategy）和 <strong>GameStop</strong> 这样的公司实际上已经收购了比特币，以增强其资产负债表。虽然从投资者的角度来看，这种举动存在争议，但将比特币与现金和短期投资一起持有，与几年前 <strong>Palantir</strong> 在其资产负债表上持有黄金的策略并没有太大不同。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI0NTEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE0OTIyNTAwNi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822451%2Fgettyimages-2149225006.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image Source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Some on Wall Street seem to agree with Laffont</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街的一些人似乎同意拉丰特的观点</h2>
</div><p>Coatue isn't the only firm on Wall Street predicting a steep rise in Bitcoin over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coatue 并不是华尔街上唯一预测比特币在未来几年将大幅上涨的公司。</p>
</div><p>Less than a year ago, Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors projected a short-term price target between $150,000 and $250,000 for Bitcoin. During a recent interview on CNBC's <em>Squawk Box</em>, not only did Lee double down on his optimistic view, but he asserted that given the limited supply of Bitcoin available and its perceived value and evolving use cases relative to other hedges (i.e., gold), its long-term price target could be more in the $3 million range -- implying a $63 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不到一年前，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的汤姆·李预测比特币的短期价格目标在 150,000 美元到 250,000 美元之间。在最近一次接受 CNBC 的_ Squawk Box_采访时，李不仅重申了他的乐观观点，还声称考虑到比特币的有限供应及其相对于其他对冲工具（即黄金）的感知价值和不断演变的使用案例，其长期价格目标可能在 300 万美元左右——这意味着 63 万亿美元的市值。</p>
</div><p>Cathie Wood, head of Ark Invest, is forecasting a monster upside in Bitcoin as well. Her long-term forecast of $1.5 million per coin implies a market cap of $31 trillion -- well above Coatue's projection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ark Invest 的凯西·伍德也预测比特币将有巨大的上涨空间。她对每个比特币 150 万美元的长期预测意味着 31 万亿美元的市值——远高于 Coatue 的预测。</p>
</div><h2>Is Bitcoin a good buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在比特币是个好买入吗？</h2>
</div><p>The most important takeaway from the analysis explored above is not simply that prominent investors are calling for huge gains in the price of Bitcoin. It's understanding the idea that Bitcoin's fixed supply gives the asset a perceived value of rarity, and therefore exposure to the asset could be advantageous during times of economic uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从上述分析中最重要的结论不仅仅是知名投资者呼吁比特币价格大幅上涨。更重要的是理解比特币的固定供应赋予了该资产稀缺的感知价值，因此在经济不确定时期，接触该资产可能是有利的。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, Bitcoin remains a highly speculative and volatile item to own. If direct exposure to Bitcoin is outside of your risk profile, there are several passive ways to invest in the cryptocurrency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，比特币仍然是一种高度投机和波动的资产。如果直接接触比特币超出了你的风险承受能力，还有几种被动投资加密货币的方式。</p>
</div><p>For starters, investors can buy spot Bitcoin ETFs such as the <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust</strong> or Cathie Wood's <strong>ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Trust</strong>. These funds track the price movements of Bitcoin, but do not require investors to buy the cryptocurrency directly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，投资者可以购买现货比特币 ETF，如 <strong>iShares Bitcoin Trust</strong> 或凯西·伍德的 <strong>ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Trust</strong>。这些基金跟踪比特币的价格波动，但不要求投资者直接购买加密货币。</p>
</div><p>Going one step further, if investors would like to hold assets with more insulated exposure to Bitcoin, they could buy shares of crypto exchanges such as <strong>Coinbase</strong> or trading applications such as <strong>Robinhood,</strong> which has a focus on crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更进一步，如果投资者希望持有与比特币有更隔离接触的资产，他们可以购买加密货币交易所的股票，如 <strong>Coinbase</strong> 或专注于加密的交易应用程序 <strong>Robinhood</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f41c620d6fc3ec9d832f7da6b0afb13b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f41c620d6fc3ec9d832f7da6b0afb13b.png"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin Price data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币价格数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>As the chart above illustrates, Bitcoin and some of its proxies have outperformed the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>, and gold over the last year. However, it should be noted that the broader market and gold have held up quite well, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上图所示，比特币及其一些代理在过去一年中表现优于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>、<strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 和黄金。然而，值得注意的是，整体市场和黄金的表现也相当不错。</p>
</div><p>Given these dynamics, I do think some exposure to Bitcoin -- be it direct or indirect -- could be a useful complementary piece of a diversified portfolio. With that said, I do not see Bitcoin or the broader cryptocurrency opportunity as superior to traditional investment vehicles just yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这些动态，我确实认为对比特币的某种接触——无论是直接还是间接——可能是多元化投资组合的有用补充。话虽如此，我认为比特币或更广泛的加密货币机会尚未优于传统投资工具。</p>
</div>

Billionaire Philippe Laffont Thinks This Could Be Worth More Than Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Tesla By 2030

- Coatue Management 预测比特币到 2030 年市值可达 5.2 万亿美元。  
- 比特币逐渐成为主流金融资产，受到零售投资者和机构的关注。  
- 投资者可通过比特币 ETF 或加密交易所股票间接投资比特币。

亿万富翁菲利普·拉丰认为，到 2030 年，这项投资可能比亚马逊、Meta 和特斯拉更有价值