<p>几年前，你可能从未听说过一家名为 OpenAI 的公司。但这一切在 2022 年 11 月 30 日发生了改变——那天 OpenAI 向公众发布了 ChatGPT，开启了人工智能 (AI) 的大趋势。</p>
<p>自 ChatGPT 首次亮相以来，没有其他大型科技股能像半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.25%) 一样受益。不到三年的时间里，Nvidia 的股价上涨超过 750%，市值也攀升了数万亿。</p>
<p>然而，围绕公司的如此兴奋，Nvidia 能否继续飙升？亿万富翁对冲基金经理 Philippe Laffont 认为可以。让我们深入了解 Laffont 的投资公司 Coatue Management 对 Nvidia 在未来五年增长前景的看法。</p>
<p>尽管已经经历了辉煌的增长，现在仍然可能是购买这家芯片设计公司股票并紧紧持有的良机。</p>
<h2>Laffont 的对冲基金对 Nvidia 预期爆炸性增长</h2>
<p>每年，Coatue 举办一场名为东西方会晤 (EMW) 的会议，科技和投资界的领袖们聚集在一起，讨论推动市场的大趋势。</p>
<p>根据 Coatue 在 2025 年 EMW 上的演示，该公司预计 Nvidia 在未来五年将继续成为全球最有价值的公司之一。到 2030 年，Coatue 预测 Nvidia 的市值将达到 5.6 万亿美元——这意味着从当前水平来看，几乎有 60% 的上涨空间。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI0MjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4NDE5MjYzNC00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI0MjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4NDE5MjYzNC00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>接下来的五年 Nvidia 会是什么样子？</h2>
<p>在投资 Nvidia 时，投资者需要考虑所有方面——无论是积极的顺风还是消极的逆风。就挑战而言，Nvidia 面临两个主要的不确定性。</p>
<p>第一个是关于公司在中国的前景，随着新关税政策和出口管制的建立，中国可能会开始显著减速。此外，来自 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 的竞争加上 Nvidia 自身一些客户——即 <strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>——对定制硅的投资增加，可能会对公司的数据中心业务造成影响。</p>
<p>尽管这两种情况都给 Nvidia 带来了一定程度的不确定性，但我认为它们都是短期问题。</p>
<p>关于客户获取，与新兴客户如 xAI 和 <strong>Oracle</strong> 的持续培养表明，Nvidia 不会在失去来自其 “七大巨头” 同行的需求方面遇到太大问题。此外，尽管中国目前占据了 Nvidia 收入的相当大一部分，但在其他地区，特别是中东的新关系有潜力随着时间的推移弥补在亚洲失去的市场。</p>
<p>然而，从长远来看，Nvidia 的增长前景看起来光明。首先，在唐纳德·特朗普总统于 1 月就职后，Oracle、OpenAI 和 <strong>SoftBank</strong> 宣布了一项名为 Project Stargate 的合资企业——该项目旨在到 2029 年在美国投资 5000 亿美元用于 AI 基础设施。</p>
<p>此外，管理咨询公司麦肯锡最近报告称，到 2030 年，AI 基础设施支出可能达到 6.7 万亿美元。这笔支出的最大受益者？芯片设计师和 AI 数据中心。这对 Nvidia 来说是个好消息。</p>
<p>尽管由于中国的挑战和更多芯片的引入，Nvidia 的短期增长可能看起来有所减速，但长期叙述支持 AI 资本支出 (capex) 在未来五年将继续积聚动能。对我来说，这些长期顺风表明，Nvidia 的长期增长潜力远远超过公司在短期内可能遇到的任何波动。</p>
<h2>现在是购买 Nvidia 股票的好时机吗？</h2>
<p>当投资者看到一只股票在短短几年内上涨了几百个百分点时，他们可能会认为自己错过了机会。但就 Nvidia 而言，估值趋势表明，现在可能是购买该股票的最佳时机。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4c97d0085b03240973528be61874cec.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4c97d0085b03240973528be61874cec.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率 (前瞻) 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>ChatGPT 大约在三年前开始商业化。在此期间，投资者看到 Nvidia 从一家主要专注于高性能游戏和 PC 芯片的公司，转变为推动各领域生成式 AI 发展的重要参与者。</p>
<p>然而，根据上面的图表，Nvidia 的前瞻市盈率 (P/E) 为 34.2，正好与其三年平均水平相符。从另一个角度看，尽管公司增长强劲且未来前景良好，Nvidia 的前瞻收益比率已经从之前的水平大幅回归正常。</p>
<p>我与 Coatue 的预测一致，认为 Nvidia 在未来五年仍有相当大的上涨空间。对我来说，Nvidia 股票目前的交易价格非常划算，我认为这对 AI 投资者来说是一个不容错过的机会。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>自 ChatGPT 推出以来，英伟达的股票上涨超过 750%，根据 Coatue Management 的预测，到 2030 年市值将达到 5.6 万亿美元。尽管在中国面临挑战以及竞争加剧，但由于对人工智能基础设施投资的增加，长期增长前景依然强劲。目前的估值趋势表明，英伟达的股票仍然是一个不错的买入选择，其未来市盈率与过去三年的平均水平相符，暗示在未来五年内有进一步上涨的潜力</p>

<p>Chances are that just a few years ago you had never heard of a company called OpenAI. But that all changed on Nov. 30, 2022 -- the day OpenAI released ChatGPT to the public and gave birth to the artificial intelligence (AI) megatrend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几年前，你可能从未听说过一家名为 OpenAI 的公司。但这一切在 2022 年 11 月 30 日发生了改变——那天 OpenAI 向公众发布了 ChatGPT，开启了人工智能 (AI) 的大趋势。</p>
</div><p>Since ChatGPT's debut, no other megacap technology stock has benefited more than semiconductor powerhouse <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.25%). With shares up by more than 750% in less than three years, Nvidia's valuation has climbed by the trillions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 ChatGPT 首次亮相以来，没有其他大型科技股能像半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.25%) 一样受益。不到三年的时间里，Nvidia 的股价上涨超过 750%，市值也攀升了数万亿。</p>
</div><p>With so much excitement surrounding the company, though, could Nvidia keep skyrocketing? Billionaire hedge fund manager Philippe Laffont thinks so. Let's dig into what Laffont's investment firm, Coatue Management, has to say about Nvidia's growth prospects over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，围绕公司的如此兴奋，Nvidia 能否继续飙升？亿万富翁对冲基金经理 Philippe Laffont 认为可以。让我们深入了解 Laffont 的投资公司 Coatue Management 对 Nvidia 在未来五年增长前景的看法。</p>
</div><p>Despite its already epic run, now may still be a lucrative opportunity to buy some shares in the chip designer and hold on tight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管已经经历了辉煌的增长，现在仍然可能是购买这家芯片设计公司股票并紧紧持有的良机。</p>
</div><h2>Laffont's hedge fund sees explosive upside for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Laffont 的对冲基金对 Nvidia 预期爆炸性增长</h2>
</div><p>Each year, Coatue hosts a conference called East Meets West (EMW), during which leaders from the technology and investment worlds gather and discuss big trends fueling the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每年，Coatue 举办一场名为东西方会晤 (EMW) 的会议，科技和投资界的领袖们聚集在一起，讨论推动市场的大趋势。</p>
</div><p>According to Coatue's 2025 EMW presentation, the firm sees Nvidia remaining as one of the most valuable companies in the world over the next five years. By 2030, Coatue is forecasting a market capitalization of $5.6 trillion for Nvidia -- implying nearly 60% upside from current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Coatue 在 2025 年 EMW 上的演示，该公司预计 Nvidia 在未来五年将继续成为全球最有价值的公司之一。到 2030 年，Coatue 预测 Nvidia 的市值将达到 5.6 万亿美元——这意味着从当前水平来看，几乎有 60% 的上涨空间。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI0MjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4NDE5MjYzNC00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822426%2Fgettyimages-1484192634-4.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What could the next five years look like for Nvidia?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>接下来的五年 Nvidia 会是什么样子？</h2>
</div><p>When it comes to investing in Nvidia, it's important for investors to consider all angles -- whether these are positive tailwinds or negative headwinds. As far as challenges are concerned, Nvidia faces two primary uncertainties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在投资 Nvidia 时，投资者需要考虑所有方面——无论是积极的顺风还是消极的逆风。就挑战而言，Nvidia 面临两个主要的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>The first surrounds the company's prospects in China, which could begin to witness notable deceleration as new tariff policies and export controls become established. In addition, rising competition from <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> in combination with increased investment in custom silicon from some of Nvidia's own customers -- namely <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> -- could put a dent in the company's data center business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一个是关于公司在中国的前景，随着新关税政策和出口管制的建立，中国可能会开始显著减速。此外，来自 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 的竞争加上 Nvidia 自身一些客户——即 <strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>——对定制硅的投资增加，可能会对公司的数据中心业务造成影响。</p>
</div><p>While both of these scenarios present a degree of uncertainty surrounding Nvidia, I see each of them as short-term issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这两种情况都给 Nvidia 带来了一定程度的不确定性，但我认为它们都是短期问题。</p>
</div><p>Regarding customer acquisition, ongoing nurturing with emerging customers such as xAI and <strong>Oracle</strong> suggest that Nvidia shouldn't have much of an issue fulfilling any demand that the company may lose from its &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; peers. In addition, despite China currently representing a sizable portion of Nvidia's revenue base, new relationships across other geographies -- particularly the Middle East -- have the potential to make up any lost ground in Asia over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于客户获取，与新兴客户如 xAI 和 <strong>Oracle</strong> 的持续培养表明，Nvidia 不会在失去来自其 “七大巨头” 同行的需求方面遇到太大问题。此外，尽管中国目前占据了 Nvidia 收入的相当大一部分，但在其他地区，特别是中东的新关系有潜力随着时间的推移弥补在亚洲失去的市场。</p>
</div><p>Thinking longer-term, however, Nvidia's growth prospects appear bright. For starters, following the inauguration of President Donald Trump back in January, Oracle, OpenAI, and <strong>SoftBank</strong> announced a joint venture called Project Stargate -- which aims to invest $500 billion into AI infrastructure in the U.S. through 2029.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，从长远来看，Nvidia 的增长前景看起来光明。首先，在唐纳德·特朗普总统于 1 月就职后，Oracle、OpenAI 和 <strong>SoftBank</strong> 宣布了一项名为 Project Stargate 的合资企业——该项目旨在到 2029 年在美国投资 5000 亿美元用于 AI 基础设施。</p>
</div><p>In addition, management consulting firm McKinsey &amp; Company recently reported that AI infrastructure spend could reach $6.7 trillion by 2030. The biggest beneficiary from this spend? Chip designers and AI data centers. That bodes well for Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，管理咨询公司麦肯锡最近报告称，到 2030 年，AI 基础设施支出可能达到 6.7 万亿美元。这笔支出的最大受益者？芯片设计师和 AI 数据中心。这对 Nvidia 来说是个好消息。</p>
</div><p>Even though Nvidia's near-term growth may give off the appearance of deceleration given challenges in China and the introduction of more chips, the long-term narrative supports the idea that AI capital expenditures (capex) will continue to build momentum over the next five years. To me, these secular tailwinds suggest that Nvidia's longer-term growth potential far outweighs any bumps the company might experience in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管由于中国的挑战和更多芯片的引入，Nvidia 的短期增长可能看起来有所减速，但长期叙述支持 AI 资本支出 (capex) 在未来五年将继续积聚动能。对我来说，这些长期顺风表明，Nvidia 的长期增长潜力远远超过公司在短期内可能遇到的任何波动。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia stock a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是购买 Nvidia 股票的好时机吗？</h2>
</div><p>When investors see that a stock has risen by several hundred percent over just a few years, they may assume they missed out on the opportunity. But in the case of Nvidia, valuation trends suggest that now could be as good a time as any to buy the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当投资者看到一只股票在短短几年内上涨了几百个百分点时，他们可能会认为自己错过了机会。但就 Nvidia 而言，估值趋势表明，现在可能是购买该股票的最佳时机。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4c97d0085b03240973528be61874cec.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d4c97d0085b03240973528be61874cec.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率 (前瞻) 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>ChatGPT became commercially available roughly three years ago. During this period, investors have watched Nvidia transform into a company primarily focused on chipsets for high-performance gaming and PCs into an integral player powering generative AI development across the board.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ChatGPT 大约在三年前开始商业化。在此期间，投资者看到 Nvidia 从一家主要专注于高性能游戏和 PC 芯片的公司，转变为推动各领域生成式 AI 发展的重要参与者。</p>
</div><p>And yet, per the chart above, Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 34.2 is right in line with its three-year average. Looked at a different way, Nvidia's forward earnings ratio has normalized considerably from prior levels despite the company's impressive growth and robust future outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，根据上面的图表，Nvidia 的前瞻市盈率 (P/E) 为 34.2，正好与其三年平均水平相符。从另一个角度看，尽管公司增长强劲且未来前景良好，Nvidia 的前瞻收益比率已经从之前的水平大幅回归正常。</p>
</div><p>I am aligned with Coatue's forecast in that Nvidia still has substantial room to run over the next five years. To me, Nvidia stock is trading for a bargain right now and I see the stock as a no-brainer for AI investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我与 Coatue 的预测一致，认为 Nvidia 在未来五年仍有相当大的上涨空间。对我来说，Nvidia 股票目前的交易价格非常划算，我认为这对 AI 投资者来说是一个不容错过的机会。</p>
</div>

Where Will Nvidia Stock Be in 5 Years?

- OpenAI 于 2022 年发布 ChatGPT，推动了 AI 热潮。  
- Nvidia 股价在三年内上涨超过 750%，市值预计到 2030 年达 5.6 万亿美元。  
- 尽管面临中国市场和竞争压力，Nvidia 的长期增长前景依然乐观。

五年后英伟达的股票会达到什么水平？