<p>似乎已经过去很久了，当时 <strong>黑莓</strong>(BB 0.23%) 是科技界的巨头，其手机需求旺盛。但随着更多创新技术的出现和更好的手机吸引了消费者，该公司陷入了困境。如今，它已转向专注于企业软件和网络安全。</p>
<p>负责从黑莓手中夺取大量市场份额的科技公司是 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.51%)。18 年前，iPhone 首次上市时迅速获得了人气。然而，最近，iPhone 似乎不再是尖端手机，因为该公司推出新人工智能（AI）功能的计划已推迟到明年。如果苹果不尽快解决这个问题，是否有可能面临与黑莓相同的命运？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIzMjEvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1lbGRlcmx5LXBlcnNvbi1ob2xkaW5nLWEtY2VsbC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIzMjEvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1lbGRlcmx5LXBlcnNvbi1ob2xkaW5nLWEtY2VsbC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>苹果是否在竞争中落后太远？</h2>
<p>苹果已推迟其 iPhone 某些 AI 功能的推出，特别是与 Siri 助手相关的功能。这让许多投资者担心，苹果不仅没有在 AI 创新方面引领潮流，反而是在追赶。AI 能力不断发展，问题在于，当苹果发布所有 AI 功能时，竞争对手的设备上可能已经有了新的功能。</p>
<p>尽管苹果拥有庞大的用户基础，全球约有 14 亿 iPhone 用户，但该公司并没有看到升级潮，因为消费者觉得购买新手机的理由越来越少。在该公司最近结束的财政年度（截至 2024 年 9 月 28 日），iPhone 销售总额为 2012 亿美元，与前一年持平。而与两年前相比，销售额下降了超过 2%。</p>
<p>目前的需求似乎并不强劲。最大的问题是，当最终需要升级设备时，苹果用户是否会继续选择 iPhone，还是会有转向其他公司手机的诱惑，而那些手机可能配备更先进的功能。</p>
<h2>为什么投资者不必过于恐慌</h2>
<p>苹果可能在 AI 方面看起来落后，但这并不意味着业务注定要失败。苹果可能不会成为下一个黑莓的最大原因是一个简单的理由：其令人印象深刻的财务状况。在不确定的情况下，苹果可以收购公司或投资技术来增强其增长前景，因为它拥有庞大的财务资源。</p>
<p>即使在巅峰时期，黑莓的财务实力也远不及今天的苹果。在 2011 年 2 月 26 日结束的财政年度，黑莓的总收入为 199 亿美元，净收入为 34 亿美元，利润率为 17%。相比之下，苹果在最近的财政年度报告了惊人的 937 亿美元利润，收入超过 3910 亿美元。</p>
<p>而且苹果还建立了一个完整的产品和相关服务生态系统，这些产品和服务与其 iPhone 集成；切换到其他提供商并不容易。对于许多苹果用户来说，他们可能愿意坚持等待一年，希望下一代 iPhone 值得升级。但为了某些 AI 功能而切换到其他提供商，并可能需要更改其他服务以确保一切保持兼容，现在看来并不是一个高风险的选择。</p>
<p>除非苹果落后于竞争对手到 iPhone 看起来过时的地步，否则推迟 AI 推出可能并不值得恐慌。苹果不是黑莓，短期内并没有面临走上类似道路的危险。</p>
<h2>你今天应该购买苹果股票吗？</h2>
<p>苹果的品牌依然强大，尽管推迟 AI 推出不会使业务瘫痪，但公司确实需要在创新方面做得更好。如果 iPhone 落后于竞争对手，许多消费者最终可能会感到足够沮丧而转向其他设备。</p>
<p>然而，我相信苹果会更加重视创新和改善其 iPhone，以确保这种情况不会成为公司面临的重大问题。但以超过 31 倍的市盈率来看，考虑到未来的挑战和近期的表现，股票仍显得有些昂贵。在这样的估值下，我认为没有足够的安全边际来考虑购买该股票。</p>
<p>我建议暂时将该股票列入观察名单。如果股价出现更长时间的下跌，推至多年来的低点，那么在弱势时购买苹果股票可能值得考虑。然而，目前，我会采取观望态度。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果公司面临其 iPhone 延迟推出人工智能功能的担忧，这引发了人们对其可能重蹈黑莓衰退覆辙的恐惧。尽管在上一个财年，iPhone 的销售额为 2012 亿美元持平，但苹果强劲的财务状况，利润达到 937 亿美元，表明其能够进行创新投资。尽管品牌依然强大，但股票的市盈率超过 31 倍，显得较为昂贵。建议投资者关注该股票，以便在价格大幅下跌时寻找潜在的买入机会</p>

<p>It seems like ages ago when <strong>BlackBerry</strong>(BB 0.23%) was the big name in tech and whose cellphones were in hot demand. But as more innovative technologies emerged and better phones captivated consumers, the company struggled. Today, it has pivoted to focusing on enterprise software and cybersecurity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>似乎已经过去很久了，当时 <strong>黑莓</strong>(BB 0.23%) 是科技界的巨头，其手机需求旺盛。但随着更多创新技术的出现和更好的手机吸引了消费者，该公司陷入了困境。如今，它已转向专注于企业软件和网络安全。</p>
</div><p>The tech company whose phones were responsible for taking significant market share from BlackBerry was <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.51%). Its iPhones soared in popularity when they first became available, 18 years ago. Lately, however, iPhones no longer look to be cutting-edge phones as the company's rollout of new artificial intelligence (AI) features has been delayed until next year. If Apple doesn't fix this situation soon, could it risk following the same path as BlackBerry?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>负责从黑莓手中夺取大量市场份额的科技公司是 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.51%)。18 年前，iPhone 首次上市时迅速获得了人气。然而，最近，iPhone 似乎不再是尖端手机，因为该公司推出新人工智能（AI）功能的计划已推迟到明年。如果苹果不尽快解决这个问题，是否有可能面临与黑莓相同的命运？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjIzMjEvZnJ1c3RyYXRlZC1lbGRlcmx5LXBlcnNvbi1ob2xkaW5nLWEtY2VsbC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822321%2Ffrustrated-elderly-person-holding-a-cell-phone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Apple falling too far behind the competition?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果是否在竞争中落后太远？</h2>
</div><p>Apple has delayed the rollout of some AI features for its iPhones, specifically to do with its Siri assistant. And that has many investors worried that rather than leading the way in AI innovation, it's playing catch up. AI capabilities are constantly evolving and the danger is that by the time Apple releases all of its AI features, there could be new ones available on rival devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果已推迟其 iPhone 某些 AI 功能的推出，特别是与 Siri 助手相关的功能。这让许多投资者担心，苹果不仅没有在 AI 创新方面引领潮流，反而是在追赶。AI 能力不断发展，问题在于，当苹果发布所有 AI 功能时，竞争对手的设备上可能已经有了新的功能。</p>
</div><p>While Apple has a large user base and there are around 1.4 billion iPhone users in the world, the company hasn't been seeing a wave of upgrades as consumers are seeing less of a reason to buy a new phone. In the company's most recent fiscal year, which ended on Sept. 28, 2024, iPhone sales totaled $201.2 billion and were flat from the previous year. And when compared to two years ago, their sales were down by a little more than 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果拥有庞大的用户基础，全球约有 14 亿 iPhone 用户，但该公司并没有看到升级潮，因为消费者觉得购买新手机的理由越来越少。在该公司最近结束的财政年度（截至 2024 年 9 月 28 日），iPhone 销售总额为 2012 亿美元，与前一年持平。而与两年前相比，销售额下降了超过 2%。</p>
</div><p>Demand doesn't look to be all that strong right now. The big question is when it comes time to finally upgrade a device, if Apple users will stick with the iPhone, or if there will be a temptation to leave to another company, whose phones may come equipped with more advanced capabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前的需求似乎并不强劲。最大的问题是，当最终需要升级设备时，苹果用户是否会继续选择 iPhone，还是会有转向其他公司手机的诱惑，而那些手机可能配备更先进的功能。</p>
</div><h2>Why investors shouldn't panic just yet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么投资者不必过于恐慌</h2>
</div><p>Apple may appear to be falling behind in AI, but that doesn't mean the business is doomed. The biggest reason why Apple may not end up being the next BlackBerry is due to one simple reason: its impressive financials. When in doubt, Apple can acquire a company or invest in a technology to bolster its growth prospects, as it has the vast financial resources to do so.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果可能在 AI 方面看起来落后，但这并不意味着业务注定要失败。苹果可能不会成为下一个黑莓的最大原因是一个简单的理由：其令人印象深刻的财务状况。在不确定的情况下，苹果可以收购公司或投资技术来增强其增长前景，因为它拥有庞大的财务资源。</p>
</div><p>Even at its peak, BlackBerry was nowhere near the financial strength that Apple is at today. In the fiscal year that ended on Feb. 26, 2011, BlackBerry's total revenue was $19.9 billion, and its net income came in at $3.4 billion, for a profit margin of 17%. Apple, by comparison, reported a staggering $93.7 billion in profit during its most recent fiscal year, with its revenue topping $391 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在巅峰时期，黑莓的财务实力也远不及今天的苹果。在 2011 年 2 月 26 日结束的财政年度，黑莓的总收入为 199 亿美元，净收入为 34 亿美元，利润率为 17%。相比之下，苹果在最近的财政年度报告了惊人的 937 亿美元利润，收入超过 3910 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>And Apple has also built an entire ecosystem of products and related services which integrate with its iPhones; switching to another provider simply isn't easy. For many Apple users, they may just be willing to hang on and wait for another year and hope that the next iteration of the iPhone is worth upgrading to. But switching to another provider and potentially having to change other services in order to ensure everything remains compatible, all for the sake of some AI features, doesn't seem like a high-risk scenario right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且苹果还建立了一个完整的产品和相关服务生态系统，这些产品和服务与其 iPhone 集成；切换到其他提供商并不容易。对于许多苹果用户来说，他们可能愿意坚持等待一年，希望下一代 iPhone 值得升级。但为了某些 AI 功能而切换到其他提供商，并可能需要更改其他服务以确保一切保持兼容，现在看来并不是一个高风险的选择。</p>
</div><p>Unless Apple were to fall so far behind its rivals that the iPhones began to look ancient, a delayed AI rollout likely isn't worth panicking over. Apple is no BlackBerry, and it's not in danger of going down a similar path anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非苹果落后于竞争对手到 iPhone 看起来过时的地步，否则推迟 AI 推出可能并不值得恐慌。苹果不是黑莓，短期内并没有面临走上类似道路的危险。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Apple stock today?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你今天应该购买苹果股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Apple's brand remains strong and while a delayed AI rollout won't cripple the business, the company does need to do a better job of innovating. If iPhones fall too far behind the competition, many consumers may eventually become frustrated enough and switch to other devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的品牌依然强大，尽管推迟 AI 推出不会使业务瘫痪，但公司确实需要在创新方面做得更好。如果 iPhone 落后于竞争对手，许多消费者最终可能会感到足够沮丧而转向其他设备。</p>
</div><p>However, I believe Apple will invest more heavily into innovation and improving its iPhones to ensure that scenario doesn't end up becoming a big problem for the company. But at more than 31 times its trailing earning, the stock is still looking a bit expensive given the challenges ahead and its recent performance. At such a a valuation, there isn't enough margin of safety there for me to consider buying the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我相信苹果会更加重视创新和改善其 iPhone，以确保这种情况不会成为公司面临的重大问题。但以超过 31 倍的市盈率来看，考虑到未来的挑战和近期的表现，股票仍显得有些昂贵。在这样的估值下，我认为没有足够的安全边际来考虑购买该股票。</p>
</div><p>I'd suggest keeping the stock on a watch list for now. If there's more of a prolonged drop in the share price that pushes it to multiyear lows, then it might be worth buying Apple's stock on weakness. For now, however, I'd take a wait-and-see approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我建议暂时将该股票列入观察名单。如果股价出现更长时间的下跌，推至多年来的低点，那么在弱势时购买苹果股票可能值得考虑。然而，目前，我会采取观望态度。</p>
</div>

Will Apple Be the Next BlackBerry?

- 苹果推迟了 iPhone 的 AI 功能发布，引发投资者担忧。  
- 尽管面临挑战，苹果的财务状况依然强劲，去年利润达 937 亿美元。  
- 苹果不太可能重蹈黑莓覆辙，但需加大创新力度以保持竞争力。  

苹果会成为下一个黑莓吗？