<p>长期关注 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.43%) 的投资者都知道其成为巨头的历程。最初作为一家开创电子商务的在线书店，亚马逊已经发展成为一家市值达 2.2 万亿美元的科技巨头。</p><p>虽然这证明了公司稳固的商业模式，但也带来了挑战。达到如此规模的公司往往增长较慢，这并不是因为商业模式存在缺陷，而是由于大数法则的影响。</p><p>尽管如此，亚马逊仍然有望继续超越市场。以下是其增长远未结束的原因。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/bfed11770a780d48447c5a13b96343db?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/bfed11770a780d48447c5a13b96343db"/></figure><p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p><h2 id="57bgpkgjv">亚马逊持久的增长驱动力</h2><p>确实，亚马逊的规模在某些方面并不利于其发展。如前所述，大型公司实现高百分比增长的难度更大。此外，亚马逊最大的、最知名的业务——在线销售，其收入年增长率为 6%，尚不清楚是否为公司带来了利润。</p><p>幸运的是，该业务也很好地定位为亚马逊电子商务旗下其他企业的亏损引导。销售数字广告已成为一项盈利丰厚的业务，第一季度产生的 140 亿美元收入同比增长 19%。包括亚马逊 Prime 在内的订阅服务在同期也增长了 11%，接近 120 亿美元。</p><p>尽管如此，亚马逊的主要增长动力来自其开创的第二个行业：云计算。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）在第一季度的收入超过 290 亿美元，占公司总收入的 19%，同比增长 17%。</p><p>此外，AWS 在公司第一季度产生的超过 180 亿美元的营业收入中占近 120 亿美元。这一优势使亚马逊有机会通过投资人工智能（AI）等技术进步，保持在科技前沿。</p><p>此外，这意味着其零售业务不必盈利，更好地使亚马逊能够与 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 和 <strong>好市多</strong> 等零售巨头竞争。</p><h2 id="xgnuvq6r">财务和估值告诉我们的事情</h2><p>因此，在第一季度，公司整体收入接近 1560 亿美元，比去年同期增长 9%，部分受上述大数法则的影响。相比之下，亚马逊的运营费用在同期增长了 7%。</p><p>其他收入也在此期间从 27 亿美元的亏损转变为 27 亿美元的 <i>利润</i>，占其大部分收益增长。因此，公司第一季度的净收入超过 170 亿美元，同比增长 64%。</p><p>诚然，亚马逊的自由现金流状况并不乐观。在第一季度，自由现金流为-80 亿美元，低于去年同期的 40 亿美元。这主要是因为资本支出从不足 150 亿美元增加到超过 250 亿美元，因而在人工智能方面进行了大量投资。</p><p>投资者似乎对这些结果大多不以为然。尽管过去一年股价仅上涨约 10%，但其增长与 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的总回报相近。然而，从五年图表来看，亚马逊的回报未能超过该指数。</p><p>尽管如此，这一增长率并未考虑到公司盈利倍数的下降。亚马逊股票的市盈率为 34，低于 2023 年 7 月的 100 以上。这也低于沃尔玛、好市多及其在云计算领域最大的竞争对手 <strong>微软</strong>。这意味着亚马逊可能既是价值股也是成长股，而压缩的倍数可能不会持续太久。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/17d4b8542fb3473924f9308b88497780?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="490" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/17d4b8542fb3473924f9308b88497780"/></figure><p>AMZN 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p><h2 id="ds7nd69p">买入亚马逊股票</h2><p>最终，亚马逊应该会成为市场的领跑者。实际上，过去五年的股价历史暗示了持续的表现不佳。尽管如此，考虑到其最成熟的零售竞争对手和最大的云计算同行的估值，亚马逊的低市盈率看起来像是一个便宜的选择。</p><p>此外，其一些与零售相关的业务正在快速增长。此外，AWS 仍然极具盈利能力，公司正在大量投资以在人工智能竞赛中保持领先。这些举措通常在短期内带来成本上升，但增加了未来几年获得更高回报的可能性。</p><p>最终，亚马逊的庞大规模可能会继续对公司的百分比增长率产生影响。然而，这种影响不太可能负面到使亚马逊在未来几年无法超越市场。</p>

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>亚马逊的股票预计将超越市场表现，尽管面临与规模相关的增长挑战。该公司的市值为 2.2 万亿美元，已通过亚马逊网络服务（AWS）多元化其收入来源，AWS 在第一季度的收入超过 290 亿美元。尽管由于资本支出的增加，其自由现金流目前为负，但其 34 的低市盈率暗示了潜在的价值。分析师认为，亚马逊在人工智能和其他领域的投资将提升未来的回报，使其成为市场上的强劲竞争者</p>

<p>Investors who have followed <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.43%) for a long time are aware of its path to megacap status. What started as an online bookselling business that pioneered e-commerce has evolved into a tech conglomerate with a $2.2 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>长期关注 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.43%) 的投资者都知道其成为巨头的历程。最初作为一家开创电子商务的在线书店，亚马逊已经发展成为一家市值达 2.2 万亿美元的科技巨头。</p>
</div><p>While that is a testament to the company's rock-solid business model, it also presents a challenge. Companies that reach such a size tend to grow more slowly, not because of deficiencies in the business model, but instead due to the law of large numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这证明了公司稳固的商业模式，但也带来了挑战。达到如此规模的公司往往增长较慢，这并不是因为商业模式存在缺陷，而是由于大数法则的影响。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, Amazon is still on track to continue beating the market. Here's why its days of growth are far from over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，亚马逊仍然有望继续超越市场。以下是其增长远未结束的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI2MjYvYW1hem9uLXByaW1lLXZhbi1vbi1zdHJlZXQucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822626%2Famazon-prime-van-on-street.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：亚马逊。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's enduring growth drivers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊持久的增长驱动力</h2>
</div><p>Indeed, Amazon's size does not work to its advantage in some respects. As mentioned, higher-percentage growth is harder for large companies to achieve. Moreover, Amazon's largest, most well-known enterprise, online sales, grew its revenue by 6% annually, and it is unclear whether it turns a profit for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>确实，亚马逊的规模在某些方面并不利于其发展。如前所述，大型公司实现高百分比增长的难度更大。此外，亚马逊最大的、最知名的业务——在线销售，其收入年增长率为 6%，尚不清楚是否为公司带来了利润。</p>
</div><p>Fortunately, that business is also well-positioned to serve as a loss leader for other enterprises under Amazon's e-commerce umbrella. Selling digital advertising on the sales site has become a lucrative endeavor, as the $14 billion in revenue it generated in Q1 rose 19% year over year. Subscription services, which includes Amazon Prime, surged 11% higher over the same period to nearly $12 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幸运的是，该业务也很好地定位为亚马逊电子商务旗下其他企业的亏损引导。销售数字广告已成为一项盈利丰厚的业务，第一季度产生的 140 亿美元收入同比增长 19%。包括亚马逊 Prime 在内的订阅服务在同期也增长了 11%，接近 120 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Still, Amazon's primary growth driver stems from the second industry it pioneered: cloud computing. Amazon Web Services (AWS) generated over $29 billion in Q1 revenue. It accounted for 19% of the company's revenue and grew 17% compared to 12 months prior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，亚马逊的主要增长动力来自其开创的第二个行业：云计算。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）在第一季度的收入超过 290 亿美元，占公司总收入的 19%，同比增长 17%。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, AWS accounted for nearly $12 billion of the more than $18 billion in operating income the company generated in Q1. That strength affords Amazon the opportunity to stay at the forefront of tech by investing in advancements such as artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，AWS 在公司第一季度产生的超过 180 亿美元的营业收入中占近 120 亿美元。这一优势使亚马逊有机会通过投资人工智能（AI）等技术进步，保持在科技前沿。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, it means its retailing does not have to earn a profit, better enabling Amazon to compete against retail giants like <strong>Walmart</strong> and <strong>Costco</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，这意味着其零售业务不必盈利，更好地使亚马逊能够与 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 和 <strong>好市多</strong> 等零售巨头竞争。</p>
</div><h2>What the financials and valuations tell us</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>财务和估值告诉我们的事情</h2>
</div><p>Thus, in Q1, the company's overall revenue of nearly $156 billion was 9% above year-ago levels, influenced in part by the aforementioned law of large numbers. In comparison, Amazon's operating expenses grew 7% over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，在第一季度，公司整体收入接近 1560 亿美元，比去年同期增长 9%，部分受上述大数法则的影响。相比之下，亚马逊的运营费用在同期增长了 7%。</p>
</div><p>Other income also shifted from a loss of $2.7 billion to a <em>profit</em> of $2.7 billion during that time, accounting for most of its earnings gain. As such, the company's Q1 net income of over $17 billion increased by 64% during that period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他收入也在此期间从 27 亿美元的亏损转变为 27 亿美元的 <em>利润</em>，占其大部分收益增长。因此，公司第一季度的净收入超过 170 亿美元，同比增长 64%。</p>
</div><p>Admittedly, Amazon's free cash flow picture is not so rosy. In Q1, free cash flow was -$8 billion, down from $4 billion in the year-ago quarter. That was primarily because spending on capital expenditures rose from under $15 billion to more than $25 billion amid heavy investment in AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诚然，亚马逊的自由现金流状况并不乐观。在第一季度，自由现金流为-80 亿美元，低于去年同期的 40 亿美元。这主要是因为资本支出从不足 150 亿美元增加到超过 250 亿美元，因而在人工智能方面进行了大量投资。</p>
</div><p>Investors seem to have largely shrugged off those results. Although the stock is up by only around 10% over the last year, its growth closely approximates that of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s total return. Still, when looking at the five-year chart, Amazon has fallen short of the returns of that index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者似乎对这些结果大多不以为然。尽管过去一年股价仅上涨约 10%，但其增长与 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的总回报相近。然而，从五年图表来看，亚马逊的回报未能超过该指数。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, that growth rate does not take into account the company's falling earnings multiple. Amazon stock trades at a 34 P/E ratio, down from over 100 in July 2023. That also is lower than Walmart, Costco, and its biggest rival in the cloud space, <strong>Microsoft</strong>. This implies that Amazon could be a value stock as much as it is a growth stock, and the multiple compression that has reduced Amazon's returns may not last much longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，这一增长率并未考虑到公司盈利倍数的下降。亚马逊股票的市盈率为 34，低于 2023 年 7 月的 100 以上。这也低于沃尔玛、好市多及其在云计算领域最大的竞争对手 <strong>微软</strong>。这意味着亚马逊可能既是价值股也是成长股，而压缩的倍数可能不会持续太久。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4ff593c0df2097bf62229863aff50035.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4ff593c0df2097bf62229863aff50035.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Buy Amazon stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>买入亚马逊股票</h2>
</div><p>Ultimately, Amazon should turn into a market-beater. Indeed, the stock price history over the last five years implies continued underperformance. Nonetheless, Amazon's low P/E ratio looks like a bargain, given the valuations of its most mature retail competitors and its largest cloud peer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，亚马逊应该会成为市场的领跑者。实际上，过去五年的股价历史暗示了持续的表现不佳。尽管如此，考虑到其最成熟的零售竞争对手和最大的云计算同行的估值，亚马逊的低市盈率看起来像是一个便宜的选择。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, some of its retail-related businesses are growing revenue rapidly. Moreover, AWS remains tremendously profitable, and the company is investing heavily to stay ahead in the AI race. Such moves often bring rising costs in the short run, but increase the odds of higher returns in future years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，其一些与零售相关的业务正在快速增长。此外，AWS 仍然极具盈利能力，公司正在大量投资以在人工智能竞赛中保持领先。这些举措通常在短期内带来成本上升，但增加了未来几年获得更高回报的可能性。</p>
</div><p>In the end, Amazon's large size will likely continue to weigh on the company's percentage growth rates. However, that effect is not likely to be so negative that Amazon can't beat the market in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，亚马逊的庞大规模可能会继续对公司的百分比增长率产生影响。然而，这种影响不太可能负面到使亚马逊在未来几年无法超越市场。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Amazon Stock Will Beat the Market. Here's Why.

- 亚马逊的市值达到 2.2 万亿美元，面临增长放缓的挑战。  
- Q1 收入接近 1560 亿美元，同比增长 9%，净利润超过 170 亿美元。  
- AWS 贡献显著，推动公司在 AI 领域的投资，未来仍有增长潜力。  

预测：亚马逊的股票将超越市场表现。以下是原因