<p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在 2025 年 6 月 25 日于荷兰海牙举行的北约峰会新闻发布会上发言。</p><p>布赖恩·斯奈德 | 路透社</p><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本周在国会山的两场听证会上大致顺利，但现在面临一个更大的挑战：唐纳德·特朗普总统可能通过很快提名他明年接任中央银行的候选人来削弱他的权威。</p><p>在鲍威尔周三在参议院银行委员会作证时，他与立法者之间的交流总体上是友好的，而特朗普则在海牙的北约峰会上对他近八年前提名的美联储候选人发起了最新的攻击。</p><p>特朗普在新闻发布会上被问及他对下一任美联储领导人的意图时表示：&#34;我认为他很糟糕。&#34;特朗普随后称鲍威尔是&#34;一个非常普通的精神人，&#34;并补充说他&#34;在所做的事情上智商很低，&#34;并且是&#34;一个非常政治化的人。&#34;</p><p>&#34;我认为他实际上是一个非常愚蠢的人，&#34;特朗普说。</p><p>虽然特朗普对鲍威尔的侮辱并不特别新颖，但这些话现在可能暗示着行动。</p><h2>潜在候选人</h2><p>在激烈批评的背景下，华尔街对&#34;影子主席&#34;的潜力议论纷纷，或者说是特朗普可能在鲍威尔的任期到期之前安装的某个中央银行搅局者。</p><p>特朗普确认他有一份潜在的鲍威尔继任者名单，缩小到&#34;三到四个人，&#34;但没有透露最终人选。</p><p>潜在候选人的阵容已经变得熟悉：财政部长斯科特·贝森特、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什，以及作为黑马的内部人选克里斯托弗·沃勒，他是特朗普的任命者，担任理事，并且最近一直倡导降低利率。</p><p>在某些圈子里，贝森特被认为是领跑者，尽管熟悉特朗普想法的消息人士表示情况并非如此。贝森特本人表示他对这个职位不感兴趣，但如果特朗普要求他担任这个职位，情况可能会改变。</p><p>《华尔街日报》周三晚间的一篇报道暗示，前世界银行行长大卫·马尔帕斯也在候选之中。该报道指出，特朗普考虑比预期更早地任命继任者，以试图影响利率政策。</p><p>白宫官员没有回应关于特朗普在新闻发布会上发言之外的评论请求。</p><h2>积极的美联储</h2><p>特朗普现在希望任命一位主席面临几个问题。首先，没有立即的空缺职位，尽管理事阿德里安娜·库格勒的任期将在 2026 年 1 月结束。鲍威尔作为理事的任期直到 2028 年才到期，但主席的任期明年到期。</p><p>&#34;这个计划可能不符合宪法，并且会在稳定恢复之前使美联储在几个月内政治化，&#34;AGF Perspectives 的首席策略师格雷格·瓦利尔周四观察到。&#34;但如果特朗普成为货币的后座司机，秋季对美联储政策进行二次猜测，对美联储独立性的损害将是相当可观的。&#34;</p><p>特朗普与鲍威尔之间的最新风波发生在中央银行的繁忙时期。</p><p>在过去几天中，美联储采取了两项重要措施，旨在应对银行业：将&#34;声誉风险&#34;移除作为银行检查的标准，这似乎是对特朗普关于大型机构政治动机去银行化的投诉的回应，以及放宽对系统重要性银行的准备资本规则。后者的措施是由监督副主席米歇尔·鲍曼推动的，她也是特朗普的任命者，但被认为最多是&#34;影子主席&#34;的外部希望。</p><p>尽管如此，特朗普最大的抱怨，即鲍威尔领导的联邦公开市场委员会拒绝降低利率，仍然是一个棘手问题。</p><p>芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比在周四接受 CNBC 采访时表示，政治波动并不是决策的因素，影子主席的任命也不会。</p><p>&#34;这对 FOMC 本身没有影响，&#34;古尔斯比说。&#34;只需查看会议纪要和记录。你可以逐字看到做出决策的理由，这些理由与选举无关，也与党派政治无关。&#34;</p>

<p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在北约峰会上加大了对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的批评，称其为 “糟糕” 和 “愚蠢”。这可能表明特朗普有意任命鲍威尔的继任者，鲍威尔的任期将于 2026 年 5 月结束。特朗普有一份候选人名单，包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特和前美联储理事凯文·沃什。然而，外界对特朗普如果影响利率政策，可能导致美联储的政治化及其独立性表示担忧。美联储最近在银行政策上进行了重大调整，但坚称政治因素不会影响决策</p>

<p>U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference, at the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, June 25, 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在 2025 年 6 月 25 日于荷兰海牙举行的北约峰会新闻发布会上发言。</p>
</div><p>Brian Snyder | Reuters</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布赖恩·斯奈德 | 路透社</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mostly breezed through two hearings on Capitol Hill this week but now heads into a much bigger challenge: a potential threat that President Donald Trump could undermine his authority by soon naming his pick to head the central bank next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本周在国会山的两场听证会上大致顺利，但现在面临一个更大的挑战：唐纳德·特朗普总统可能通过很快提名他明年接任中央银行的候选人来削弱他的权威。</p>
</div><p>As Powell testified Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee, holding generally cordial exchanges with lawmakers, Trump was at the NATO summit in The Hague lobbing his latest attacks on a man he had nominated for the Fed job nearly eight years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在鲍威尔周三在参议院银行委员会作证时，他与立法者之间的交流总体上是友好的，而特朗普则在海牙的北约峰会上对他近八年前提名的美联储候选人发起了最新的攻击。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think he's terrible,&#34; Trump said when asked during a news conference about his intentions for the next Fed leader. Trump then called Powell a &#34;very average mentally person,&#34; adding he has &#34;a low IQ for what he does&#34; and is &#34;a very political guy.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普在新闻发布会上被问及他对下一任美联储领导人的意图时表示：&#34;我认为他很糟糕。&#34;特朗普随后称鲍威尔是&#34;一个非常普通的精神人，&#34;并补充说他&#34;在所做的事情上智商很低，&#34;并且是&#34;一个非常政治化的人。&#34;</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think he is a very stupid person, actually,&#34; Trump said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我认为他实际上是一个非常愚蠢的人，&#34;特朗普说。</p>
</div><p>While Trump's name-calling of Powell isn't particularly new, the words now could signal action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然特朗普对鲍威尔的侮辱并不特别新颖，但这些话现在可能暗示着行动。</p>
</div><h2>Potential candidates</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>潜在候选人</h2>
</div><p>In the wake of the intense criticism, Wall Street has been buzzing over the potential for a &#34;shadow chair,&#34; or someone Trump could install as a central bank gadfly until Powell's term expires in May 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在激烈批评的背景下，华尔街对&#34;影子主席&#34;的潜力议论纷纷，或者说是特朗普可能在鲍威尔的任期到期之前安装的某个中央银行搅局者。</p>
</div><p>Trump confirmed that he has a list of potential Powell successors down to &#34;three or four people,&#34; without naming the finalists.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普确认他有一份潜在的鲍威尔继任者名单，缩小到&#34;三到四个人，&#34;但没有透露最终人选。</p>
</div><p>The cadre of potential candidates has become familiar: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and as a dark horse in-house pick Christopher Waller, who is a Trump appointee serving as governor and as of late has been an advocate for lower interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>潜在候选人的阵容已经变得熟悉：财政部长斯科特·贝森特、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什，以及作为黑马的内部人选克里斯托弗·沃勒，他是特朗普的任命者，担任理事，并且最近一直倡导降低利率。</p>
</div><p>In some circles, Bessent has been considered a front-runner, though sources familiar with Trump's thinking say that is not necessarily the case. Bessent himself has said he's not interested in the job, though that could change if Trump would ask him to take it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在某些圈子里，贝森特被认为是领跑者，尽管熟悉特朗普想法的消息人士表示情况并非如此。贝森特本人表示他对这个职位不感兴趣，但如果特朗普要求他担任这个职位，情况可能会改变。</p>
</div><p>A report in The Wall Street Journal Wednesday evening suggested that former World Bank President David Malpass also is in the running. The Journal report indicated that Trump is considering naming the successor sooner than expected in an attempt to influence interest rate policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《华尔街日报》周三晚间的一篇报道暗示，前世界银行行长大卫·马尔帕斯也在候选之中。该报道指出，特朗普考虑比预期更早地任命继任者，以试图影响利率政策。</p>
</div><p>White House officials did not respond to a request for comment beyond Trump's remarks at the news conference.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白宫官员没有回应关于特朗普在新闻发布会上发言之外的评论请求。</p>
</div><h2>An active Fed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>积极的美联储</h2>
</div><p>There are several issues making Trump's desire to name a chair now problematic. For one, there are no immediate open positions, though Governor Adriana Kugler's term ends in January 2026. Powell's term as governor itself doesn't expire until 2028, though the chair term runs out next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普现在希望任命一位主席面临几个问题。首先，没有立即的空缺职位，尽管理事阿德里安娜·库格勒的任期将在 2026 年 1 月结束。鲍威尔作为理事的任期直到 2028 年才到期，但主席的任期明年到期。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This plan probably isn't constitutional and would politicize the Fed for a few months before stability is restored next May,&#34; Greg Valliere, chief strategist at AGF Perspectives, observed Thursday. &#34;But the damage to the Fed's independence would be considerable if Trump becomes a monetary back-seat driver, second-guessing Fed policies this fall.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;这个计划可能不符合宪法，并且会在稳定恢复之前使美联储在几个月内政治化，&#34;AGF Perspectives 的首席策略师格雷格·瓦利尔周四观察到。&#34;但如果特朗普成为货币的后座司机，秋季对美联储政策进行二次猜测，对美联储独立性的损害将是相当可观的。&#34;</p>
</div><p>The latest Trump-Powell tumult comes during a busy time for the central bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普与鲍威尔之间的最新风波发生在中央银行的繁忙时期。</p>
</div><p>Over the past several days, the Fed has taken two significant steps aimed at banking: removing &#34;reputational risk&#34; as a criteria for bank exams, a seeming nod to Trump's complaint over politically motivated de-banking at large institutions, and the relaxing of reserve capital rules for systemically important banks. The latter measure was pushed by Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, also a Trump appointee but someone who is thought to be at best an outside hopeful for &#34;shadow chair&#34; finalist.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几天中，美联储采取了两项重要措施，旨在应对银行业：将&#34;声誉风险&#34;移除作为银行检查的标准，这似乎是对特朗普关于大型机构政治动机去银行化的投诉的回应，以及放宽对系统重要性银行的准备资本规则。后者的措施是由监督副主席米歇尔·鲍曼推动的，她也是特朗普的任命者，但被认为最多是&#34;影子主席&#34;的外部希望。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, Trump's biggest gripe, namely the Powell-led Federal Open Market Committee's refusal to lower interest rates, remains a sticking point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，特朗普最大的抱怨，即鲍威尔领导的联邦公开市场委员会拒绝降低利率，仍然是一个棘手问题。</p>
</div><p>Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC in a Thursday interview that the political waves are not a factor in decision-making, nor would be the naming of a shadow chair.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比在周四接受 CNBC 采访时表示，政治波动并不是决策的因素，影子主席的任命也不会。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That would have no effect on the FOMC itself,&#34; Goolsbee said. &#34;Just look at the minutes and transcripts. You can see, word for word, what the rationale are in making the decisions, and they're not about elections and they're not about partisan politics.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;这对 FOMC 本身没有影响，&#34;古尔斯比说。&#34;只需查看会议纪要和记录。你可以逐字看到做出决策的理由，这些理由与选举无关，也与党派政治无关。&#34;</p>
</div>

特朗普对鲍威尔美联储的战争再次出现政治转折