<p>市场预计的降息次数超过美联储的预测</p><p>投资者推测美联储政策在鲍威尔被替换后可能会变得更加温和</p><p>他们警告不要高估下一任美联储主席实施降息的能力</p><p>作者：Saqib Iqbal Ahmed</p><p>纽约，6 月 26 日（路透社）- 投资者表示，美联储预计到 2026 年底的利率与金融市场预计的更激进的降息之间的差距，部分原因在于预计美国中央银行行长杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在明年被更温和的人选替换。</p><p>然而，他们警告不要假设美联储的换帅必然会带来市场和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普所期待的那么多政策宽松。在上周发布的新经济预测中，美联储政策制定者预计到 2026 年 12 月将降息三个季度百分点。这比联邦基金期货（0#FF:）所暗示的约 125 个基点的宽松少了两个基点。联邦基金利率是银行之间进行隔夜借贷时收取的利率，也是美联储的主要政策杠杆。自去年 12 月最后一次降息以来，该利率一直维持在 4.25%-4.50% 的区间。</p><p>预计的三个季度百分点的降息中，有两个是在 2025 年，明年还有一个。</p><p>虽然这种差异源于多个因素，包括对特朗普关税将如何影响经济和通胀的预期，但投资者表示，对更宽松的美联储主席的希望也是其中的一部分。</p><p>“鲍威尔的任期将在 5 月结束，他可能会被一个对政府非常友好的人替换，” 芝加哥 Cresset Capital 的首席投资官杰克·阿布林说。</p><p>阿布林表示：“我认为这可能是比许多投资者认为的更重要的因素。” 特朗普尚未决定鲍威尔的替代人选，白宫的相关讨论也没有迫在眉睫。芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比在接受 CNBC 采访时表示，任何任命 “影子” 主席的举动都将无效。周一，跟踪担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）的期货交易者将 2026 年 12 月到期的期货合约隐含收益率压低至 65 个基点（bps），低于 2025 年 12 月到期的合约，这是该利差有史以来最负面的表现。这一发展表明，市场也在定价比预期更深的经济放缓。</p><p>鲍威尔本周在国会表示，较高的关税可能会在夏季推高通胀，并且美国中央银行并不急于降息。</p><p>特朗普周二表示，美国利率应该降低至少两到三个百分点，他一再呼吁降息。周三，他在对中央银行行长的最新攻击中称鲍威尔 “糟糕”，并表示他心中有三到四个候选人作为美联储主席的接替人选。“政府现在正在为经济、就业和投资增长铺平道路，包括通过 ‘一项伟大的美丽法案’，而货币政策也应该支持这一议程，助力美国经济复苏，” 白宫发言人库什·德赛说。华尔街日报周三报道，特朗普考虑在 9 月或 10 月选择并宣布鲍威尔的替代人选，引用了知情人士的话。这一举动意味着鲍威尔在任期的最后六次会议中可能会有一个 “影子”。</p><p>疲软的美元在周四再次遭受重创，投资者对美国中央银行独立性出现新迹象感到担忧。</p><p>尽管如此，这一举动将支持市场对未来降息的更温和看法。</p><p>“特朗普可能会提名一个更愿意降息的人，这是一个合理的论点，” Siebert Financial 的首席投资官马克·马莱克说。</p><p>美联储独立性 根据在线预测市场 Polymarket，替换鲍威尔的主要候选人包括美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、前美联储理事凯文·沃什、白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特、财政部长斯科特·贝森特和朱迪·谢尔顿，后者是特朗普提名的美联储理事会成员，但在拜登政府期间提名被撤回。另一个预测网站 Kalshi 列出了沃勒作为最有可能被提名的人，紧随其后的是沃什。沃勒最近表示，他认为关税带来的通胀风险很小，并且美联储应该在下个月的会议上尽快降息。与此同时，沃什上个月建议了一条可能的降低政策利率的路径，并批评了美联储的货币政策行为。然而，投资者警告说，美联储主席只是中央银行货币政策会议上 12 名投票成员之一。部分职责是与大多数政策制定者达成共识，过度依赖该人的降息能力是有风险的。“显然，主席对委员会的决策有很大影响，但主席并不是委员会，” Siebert Financial 的马莱克说。</p><p>“主席总是会试图寻求共识，” 他说。下一任美联储主席也不一定会冒着损害中央银行独立性的风险。“美联储最重要的部分是其中立性，” Freedom Capital Markets 的首席全球策略师杰伊·伍兹说。</p><p>“为了让下一任美联储主席获得任命，是的，你需要迎合总统以获得提名。但你仍然需要让房间里的每个人都支持一个共同的叙述，” 伍兹说。</p><p>没有数据支持的降息轨迹将损害下一任美联储主席的形象，分析师表示。</p><p>“无论谁被任命，可能都会在其任期内蒙上阴影，认为特朗普在操控一切，” Annex Wealth Management 的首席经济学家布赖恩·雅各布森说。</p><p>“我并不太担心我们会回到一个主席受总统控制的时期，就像在（理查德）尼克松总统时期那样。”</p><p>图表：美联储的点阵图</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/873e233f290eb1d3b2e437e83ea654ac?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="860" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/873e233f290eb1d3b2e437e83ea654ac"/></figure><p>图表：更多降息</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/8e91adeb3f96469ba8df743a9d1261c6?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="890" height="668" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/8e91adeb3f96469ba8df743a9d1261c6"/></figure>

<p>市场预期显示，美联储可能采取更为温和的立场，因为关于杰罗姆·鲍威尔可能被替换的猜测日益增加。投资者预见到比美联储预测更为激进的降息，预计新任主席可能会与特朗普总统的观点一致。然而，专家警告不要高估新任美联储主席对货币政策的影响。目前的预测显示，到 2026 年 12 月将有三次 25 个基点的降息，而期货市场则暗示经济将出现更深的放缓。特朗普对鲍威尔表示不满，并正在考虑候选人，这可能会影响未来的利率决策</p>

<p>Market expects more rate cuts than projected by Fed</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场预计的降息次数超过美联储的预测</p>
</div><p>Investors speculate Fed policy may turn more dovish when Powell is replaced</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者推测美联储政策在鲍威尔被替换后可能会变得更加温和</p>
</div><p>They warn against overestimating next Fed chief’s ability to deliver rate cuts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们警告不要高估下一任美联储主席实施降息的能力</p>
</div><p>By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Saqib Iqbal Ahmed</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, June 26 (Reuters) - The gulf between where the Federal Reserve projects interest rates will be by the end of 2026 and the more aggressive cutting financial markets expect by then is partly due to the expectation that U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell will be replaced by somebody more dovish next year, investors said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，6 月 26 日（路透社）- 投资者表示，美联储预计到 2026 年底的利率与金融市场预计的更激进的降息之间的差距，部分原因在于预计美国中央银行行长杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在明年被更温和的人选替换。</p>
</div><p>They, however, cautioned against assuming that a change of guard at the Fed would necessarily deliver as much policy easing as markets and U.S. President Donald Trump expect. In new economic projections released last week, Fed policymakers penciled in three quarter-percentage-point cuts by December 2026. That’s two cuts short of the roughly 125 basis points of easing that fed funds futures (0#FF:) suggest. The fed funds rate is what banks charge each other for overnight lending, and serves as the Fed’s main policy lever. It has stood in the 4.25%-4.50% range since the last easing in December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，他们警告不要假设美联储的换帅必然会带来市场和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普所期待的那么多政策宽松。在上周发布的新经济预测中，美联储政策制定者预计到 2026 年 12 月将降息三个季度百分点。这比联邦基金期货（0#FF:）所暗示的约 125 个基点的宽松少了两个基点。联邦基金利率是银行之间进行隔夜借贷时收取的利率，也是美联储的主要政策杠杆。自去年 12 月最后一次降息以来，该利率一直维持在 4.25%-4.50% 的区间。</p>
</div><p>Two of the projected quarter-percentage-point cuts were for 2025, with one more next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计的三个季度百分点的降息中，有两个是在 2025 年，明年还有一个。</p>
</div><p>While the difference stems from several factors, including expectations for how Trump’s tariffs will affect the economy and inflation, hopes for a more accommodative Fed chief are part of the mix, investors said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这种差异源于多个因素，包括对特朗普关税将如何影响经济和通胀的预期，但投资者表示，对更宽松的美联储主席的希望也是其中的一部分。</p>
</div><p>“Powell’s term is up in May, and he could be replaced by someone super friendly to the administration,” Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Cresset Capital in Chicago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“鲍威尔的任期将在 5 月结束，他可能会被一个对政府非常友好的人替换，” 芝加哥 Cresset Capital 的首席投资官杰克·阿布林说。</p>
</div><p>“I think this is probably a bigger factor than a lot of investors believe,” Ablin said. Trump has not decided on a replacement for Powell and a decision isn’t imminent, a person familiar with the White House’s deliberations said on Thursday. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC any move to name a “shadow” chair would be ineffective. On Monday, traders in futures tracking the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), another key overnight rate, pushed the implied yield of futures contracts maturing in December 2026 (SRAZ26) 65 basis points (bps) below those expiring in December 2025 (SRAZ25) , the most negative that spread has ever been. This development shows that a deeper economic slowdown than expected is also being priced in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿布林表示：“我认为这可能是比许多投资者认为的更重要的因素。” 特朗普尚未决定鲍威尔的替代人选，白宫的相关讨论也没有迫在眉睫。芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比在接受 CNBC 采访时表示，任何任命 “影子” 主席的举动都将无效。周一，跟踪担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）的期货交易者将 2026 年 12 月到期的期货合约隐含收益率压低至 65 个基点（bps），低于 2025 年 12 月到期的合约，这是该利差有史以来最负面的表现。这一发展表明，市场也在定价比预期更深的经济放缓。</p>
</div><p>Powell told Congress this week that higher tariffs could boost inflation this summer, and that the U.S. central bank isn’t rushing to cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔本周在国会表示，较高的关税可能会在夏季推高通胀，并且美国中央银行并不急于降息。</p>
</div><p>Trump, who has repeatedly called for rate cuts, said on Tuesday that U.S. rates should be lowered by at least two to three percentage points. On Wednesday, he called Powell “terrible” in his latest attack on the central bank chief and said he has three or four people in mind as contenders for the top Fed job. “The administration is now laying the groundwork – including with the ‘One, Big, Beautiful Bill’ – to turbocharge economic, job, and investment growth, and it’s high time for monetary policy to complement this agenda and support America’s economic resurgence,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said. Trump has toyed with the idea of selecting and announcing Powell’s replacement by September or October, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Such a move would mean Powell would have a “shadow” for possibly the last six meetings of his tenure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普周二表示，美国利率应该降低至少两到三个百分点，他一再呼吁降息。周三，他在对中央银行行长的最新攻击中称鲍威尔 “糟糕”，并表示他心中有三到四个候选人作为美联储主席的接替人选。“政府现在正在为经济、就业和投资增长铺平道路，包括通过 ‘一项伟大的美丽法案’，而货币政策也应该支持这一议程，助力美国经济复苏，” 白宫发言人库什·德赛说。华尔街日报周三报道，特朗普考虑在 9 月或 10 月选择并宣布鲍威尔的替代人选，引用了知情人士的话。这一举动意味着鲍威尔在任期的最后六次会议中可能会有一个 “影子”。</p>
</div><p>A battered dollar took another beating on Thursday as investors fretted over fresh signs of an erosion in U.S. central bank independence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲软的美元在周四再次遭受重创，投资者对美国中央银行独立性出现新迹象感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>Still, such a move would back the market’s more dovish view on future rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，这一举动将支持市场对未来降息的更温和看法。</p>
</div><p>“It’s a reasonable thesis that Trump will put up a person that will be more amenable to lower rates,” said Mark Malek, chief investment officer of Siebert Financial.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“特朗普可能会提名一个更愿意降息的人，这是一个合理的论点，” Siebert Financial 的首席投资官马克·马莱克说。</p>
</div><p>FED INDEPENDENCE According to online prediction market Polymarket, the top candidates to replace Powell are Fed Governor Christopher Waller, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Judy Shelton, a former Trump pick for the Fed’s Board of Governors whose nomination was withdrawn during the Biden administration. Another prediction site, Kalshi, lists Waller as having the best chance to be nominated, closely followed by Warsh. Waller recently said he felt the inflation risk from tariffs was small and that the Fed should cut rates as soon as its next meeting in July. Meanwhile, Warsh suggested last month a possible pathway to lower policy rates and criticized the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy. Still, investors warned that the head of the Fed is only one of 12 voting members at the central bank’s monetary policy meetings. Part of the role is to build consensus with a large group of policymakers, making excessive reliance on that person’s ability to deliver lower rates risky. “Obviously the chair has a very big influence on what the committee does, but the chair is not the committee,” Siebert Financial’s Malek said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储独立性 根据在线预测市场 Polymarket，替换鲍威尔的主要候选人包括美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、前美联储理事凯文·沃什、白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特、财政部长斯科特·贝森特和朱迪·谢尔顿，后者是特朗普提名的美联储理事会成员，但在拜登政府期间提名被撤回。另一个预测网站 Kalshi 列出了沃勒作为最有可能被提名的人，紧随其后的是沃什。沃勒最近表示，他认为关税带来的通胀风险很小，并且美联储应该在下个月的会议上尽快降息。与此同时，沃什上个月建议了一条可能的降低政策利率的路径，并批评了美联储的货币政策行为。然而，投资者警告说，美联储主席只是中央银行货币政策会议上 12 名投票成员之一。部分职责是与大多数政策制定者达成共识，过度依赖该人的降息能力是有风险的。“显然，主席对委员会的决策有很大影响，但主席并不是委员会，” Siebert Financial 的马莱克说。</p>
</div><p>“The chair will always try to seek a consensus,” he said. Nor is it a given that the next Fed chief would risk the central bank’s independence. “The most important part about the Fed is its neutrality,” said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“主席总是会试图寻求共识，” 他说。下一任美联储主席也不一定会冒着损害中央银行独立性的风险。“美联储最重要的部分是其中立性，” Freedom Capital Markets 的首席全球策略师杰伊·伍兹说。</p>
</div><p>“For the next Fed chair to get appointed, yes, you want to appease the president to get that nomination. But you still have to get everyone in that room to be behind a common narrative,” Woods said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“为了让下一任美联储主席获得任命，是的，你需要迎合总统以获得提名。但你仍然需要让房间里的每个人都支持一个共同的叙述，” 伍兹说。</p>
</div><p>A rate-cutting trajectory not backed by data would hurt the next Fed chief’s image, analysts said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有数据支持的降息轨迹将损害下一任美联储主席的形象，分析师表示。</p>
</div><p>“Whoever is appointed may have a cloud cast over his or her term that President Trump is pulling the strings,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“无论谁被任命，可能都会在其任期内蒙上阴影，认为特朗普在操控一切，” Annex Wealth Management 的首席经济学家布赖恩·雅各布森说。</p>
</div><p>“I’m not too worried that we’re going back to a period where the chair is in the pocket of the president, like under (President Richard) Nixon.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我并不太担心我们会回到一个主席受总统控制的时期，就像在（理查德）尼克松总统时期那样。”</p>
</div><p>Graphic: The Fed’s dot plot</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表：美联储的点阵图</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3TuSQox" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3TuSQox"/></p>
<p>Graphic: More rate cuts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表：更多降息</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/44A5Nnm" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/44A5Nnm"/></p>

ANALYSIS-Market bets on a more dovish Fed as Trump eyes Powell's replacement

- 投资者预计美联储将面临更激进的降息压力。  
- 他们警告称，新任主席未必能实现市场预期的降息幅度。  
- 美联储预计到 2026 年底将降息三次，市场则预期降息约 125 个基点。

分析 - 市场押注美联储将采取更鸽派的立场，因为特朗普考虑替换鲍威尔