<p>佛罗里达州奥兰多，6 月 26 日（路透社）- 交易日</p><p>理解推动全球市场的力量</p><p>作者：杰米·麦基弗，市场专栏作家</p><p>周四，美元下滑，股票飙升，因为投资者加大了对美国利率即将下调的押注，此前唐纳德·特朗普总统在对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的最新攻击中， reportedly 表示他可能会提前任命他的接替者。</p><p>在我今天的专栏中，我将探讨投资者在下半年可能面临的 “痛苦交易”。更多内容见下文，但首先，回顾一下主要市场动态。</p><p>如果你有更多时间阅读，这里有几篇我推荐的文章，可以帮助你理解今天市场发生了什么。</p><ol><li>消息人士称特朗普对美联储的决定并不迫在眉睫</li><li>投资者加强防御以应对可能的八月市场崩盘</li><li>华尔街预测美国大型银行将因美联储放松杠杆规则而获得意外收益</li><li>英国央行呼应央行对长期债券的敏感性：迈克·多兰</li><li>欧盟领导人会晤决定是否支持快速达成美国贸易协议或寻求更好条款</li></ol><p>今天的关键市场动态</p><ul><li>全球股票创下新纪录，标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克均接近历史最高点。</li><li>美元指数跌至三年低点，欧元和英镑创下自 2021 年以来的最高点，瑞士法郎达到十年高点。</li><li>外汇飙升限制了欧洲股票的表现，欧洲指数落后于美国同行。在亚洲，日本和中国股票分别创下五个月和七个月的高点。</li><li>美国国债收益率跌至自五月初以来的最低点，同时受到疲弱的美国经济数据的压力。收益率曲线牛市陡峭化。</li><li>铂金再涨 4%，本月累计上涨 34% - 这是近 40 年来的最佳月份，也是历史上第二好的月份。</li></ul><p>市场 “热火朝天”</p><p>刺激经济。这似乎是特朗普政府的总体计划，最终将通过减税、放松监管和宽松的财政政策来实现。还有宽松的货币政策。毫无疑问，货币政策也将保持宽松。</p><p>白宫对美联储施加降息压力并不是新鲜事。总统对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发起了几次口头攻击，指责他未能采取行动，称他 “非常愚蠢”、“非常笨” 和 “智商低”。</p><p>鲍威尔的主席任期将于明年五月到期，他坚称自己不会被解雇。因此，特朗普现在考虑提前任命他的接替者，这可能会作为 “影子” 美联储主席，削弱鲍威尔的影响力。</p><p>这是否有效或可行尚待观察。但这一提议的提出正在为已经开始升温的市场动态火上浇油 - 美元正在下跌，美联储降息的押注正在加大，股票飞涨，“大科技” 正在恢复活力。</p><p>周四，美元兑一篮子主要货币跌至三年多以来的最低点，尤其在对欧洲货币的表现上非常糟糕，并且有望创下半个世纪以来最糟糕的上半年表现。</p><p>特朗普政府可能对市场的反应感到相当满意 - 更具出口竞争力的美元、较低的短期收益率和更高的股票。如果你进一步观察，名义增长和超出目标的通胀将有助于减轻债务负担。</p><p>危险在于这些变动可能会加剧，美元可能会迅速下跌，导致市场广泛失调。但我们还没有到达那个地步，投资者正在顺势而为。</p><p>鹰派美联储可能会给市场带来最大的 “痛苦交易”</p><p>随着上半年结束，金融市场处于停滞状态，等待看到全球贸易协议的万花筒在 7 月 9 日华盛顿暂停 “对等关税” 后将如何 - 或不会 - 汇聚。但如果投资者判断失误，哪些交易将是最脆弱的？</p><p>今天市场的悬而未决状态显得异常乐观。美国的增长预测正在上升，标准普尔 500 指数明年的盈利增长预期高达 14%，企业并购活动正在增加，全球股票创下历史新高。</p><p>唐纳德·特朗普总统 4 月 2 日 “解放日” 关税后不久的不确定性似乎已成为遥远的记忆。反弹行情持续了近三个月，仅在以色列和伊朗之间的 12 天战争期间短暂暂停。</p><p>这是一个相当乐观的前景，有人可能会说过于乐观。如果我们真的看到回调，最大的 “痛苦交易” 将是什么？</p><p>主要的压力点显然是在资产类别和市场中，投资者的定位和情绪在一个方向上过于集中。正如拥挤交易所示，突然的价格反转可能会迫使太多投资者同时撤出，意味着并非所有人都能及时退出。</p><p>为了识别最过度集中持仓，查看美国银行的月度全球基金经理调查是很有帮助的。在 6 月的调查中，目前最拥挤的三笔交易是：做多黄金（41% 的受访者）、做多 “七大奇迹” 科技股（23%）和做空美元（20%）。</p><p>这种受欢迎程度当然意味着这三笔交易的盈利能力很高。</p><p>“七大奇迹” 股票篮子包括英伟达、微软、Meta、苹果、亚马逊、谷歌母公司 Alphabet 和特斯拉的股票，占标准普尔 500 指数 2023 年和 2024 年 58% 两年回报的超过一半。Roundhill 等权重 “七大奇迹” ETF 今年上涨了 40%，而纳斯达克 100 指数中这七只股票占市场总市值的超过一半，本周创下历史新高。</p><p>与此同时，黄金价格在过去两年半几乎翻了一番，4 月份突破 3500 美元/盎司的历史高点。而美元今年下跌了 10%，有望创下自 50 多年前自由浮动汇率时代以来最糟糕的上半年表现。</p><h3 id="ayv73971r">削减和……燃烧？</h3><p>在某种程度上，这三笔交易是一个基本赌注的衍生品：深信美联储将在未来 18 个月内大幅降低美国利率，这种情景将使所有这些头寸成为赚钱的机会。</p><p>尽管美联储上周修订的经济预测因其鹰派倾向而引人注目，但利率期货市场却在加大对降息的押注，这主要是由于几位美联储官员的鸽派言论和油价的急剧下跌。交易员们现在预测到明年年底将降息 125 个基点。</p><p>摩根士丹利的经济学家们更加鸽派，预测今年不会有变化，但明年将降息 175 个基点。这将使美联储基金利率区间降至 2.5%-2.75%。</p><p>较低的借贷成本对那些可以预期高未来增长率的公司股票，尤其是大型科技公司，将特别有利。理论上，低利率对黄金这种无息资产也是有利的。</p><p>但另一方面，很难构建一个经济持续增长、支持股票表现的情景，同时美联储又在大幅降息 175 个基点。</p><p>如此规模和速度的放松几乎肯定会表明美联储正在试图扑灭一场熊熊的经济大火，很可能是严重的经济放缓或衰退。虽然在这种环境下风险资产不一定会崩溃，但过度扩张的头寸将会暴露。</p><p>诚然，这并不是投资者在过去三年中首次押注美联储降息，我们尚未看到因此导致的重大崩溃。市场对 “高位持续” 的利率处理得比许多观察者警告的要好，过程中飙升至新高。</p><p>不过，如果在下半年出现 “痛苦交易”，很可能是由于一个痛点：鹰派的美联储。</p><p>明天可能会影响市场的因素有哪些？</p><ul><li>日本零售销售（5 月）</li><li>日本失业率（5 月）</li><li>日本东京通胀（6 月）</li><li>日本软银股东大会</li><li>欧元区情绪指数（6 月）</li><li>美国个人消费支出通胀（5 月）</li><li>美国密歇根大学消费者信心、通胀预期（6 月，最终）</li><li>克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克和美联储理事丽莎·库克参加 “美联储倾听” 活动</li></ul><p>想要每个工作日早上在邮箱中收到《交易日》吗？请在这里注册我的通讯。</p><p>所表达的观点仅代表作者本人，不反映路透社的观点，路透社在信托原则下致力于诚信、独立和无偏见。</p><p>美元自由下跌</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5dfe70c49ddcffb4ecafce92e8955d51?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="962" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5dfe70c49ddcffb4ecafce92e8955d51"/></figure><p>最拥挤的交易 - 美银基金经理调查</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/fb8d7fed3706ef90c971138139639069?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="815" height="452" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/fb8d7fed3706ef90c971138139639069"/></figure><p>隐含的美联储基金期货曲线急剧下滑</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d56bfa94d527682e31b407363737fb9b?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="598" height="453" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d56bfa94d527682e31b407363737fb9b"/></figure><p>（作者：杰米·麦基弗）</p>

<p>6 月 26 日，全球市场出现显著波动，美元下跌，股票上涨，投资者对美国即将降息的预期推动了这一趋势。特朗普总统对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的批评以及可能更换他的计划加剧了市场的猜测。全球股票创下历史新高，而美元则跌至三年来的低点。尽管美国的增长预测和企业盈利上升，前景依然乐观，但如果美元继续下跌，市场可能出现潜在的动荡</p>

<p>ORLANDO, Florida, June 26 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>佛罗里达州奥兰多，6 月 26 日（路透社）- 交易日</p>
</div><p>Making sense of the forces driving global markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理解推动全球市场的力量</p>
</div><p>By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：杰米·麦基弗，市场专栏作家</p>
</div><p>The dollar slid and stocks surged on Thursday as investors ramped up bets that U.S. interest rates will soon be cut, after President Donald Trump, in his latest attack on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, reportedly said he may name his replacement early.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，美元下滑，股票飙升，因为投资者加大了对美国利率即将下调的押注，此前唐纳德·特朗普总统在对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的最新攻击中， reportedly 表示他可能会提前任命他的接替者。</p>
</div><p>In my column today I look at where the “pain trades” for investors may lie in the second half of the year. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我今天的专栏中，我将探讨投资者在下半年可能面临的 “痛苦交易”。更多内容见下文，但首先，回顾一下主要市场动态。</p>
</div><p>If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你有更多时间阅读，这里有几篇我推荐的文章，可以帮助你理解今天市场发生了什么。</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Trump decision on Fed not imminent, source says</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>消息人士称特朗普对美联储的决定并不迫在眉睫</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>Investors shore up defences against another August market rout</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>投资者加强防御以应对可能的八月市场崩盘</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>Wall Street forecasts windfall for big U.S. banks from Fed plan to ease leverage rule</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>华尔街预测美国大型银行将因美联储放松杠杆规则而获得意外收益</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>BoE echoes central banks’ long bond sensitivity: Mike Dolan</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>英国央行呼应央行对长期债券的敏感性：迈克·多兰</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>EU leaders meet to decide on whether to back quick U.S. trade deal or seek better terms</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>欧盟领导人会晤决定是否支持快速达成美国贸易协议或寻求更好条款</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Today’s Key Market Moves</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的关键市场动态</p>
</div><ul>
<li>World stocks hit a fresh record peak, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq both get to within a whisker of their all-time highs.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>全球股票创下新纪录，标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克均接近历史最高点。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Dollar index falls to a 3-year low, the euro and sterling hit highest since 2021, the Swiss franc hits a decade high.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美元指数跌至三年低点，欧元和英镑创下自 2021 年以来的最高点，瑞士法郎达到十年高点。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Soaring FX caps stocks in Europe, where indices lag U.S. peers. In Asia, Japanese, Chinese stocks hit 5-month and 7-month highs, respectively.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>外汇飙升限制了欧洲股票的表现，欧洲指数落后于美国同行。在亚洲，日本和中国股票分别创下五个月和七个月的高点。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. Treasury yields fall to lowest since early May, also pressured by weak U.S. economic data. Curve bull steepens.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美国国债收益率跌至自五月初以来的最低点，同时受到疲弱的美国经济数据的压力。收益率曲线牛市陡峭化。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Platinum rises another 4%, now up 34% this month - its best month in nearly 40 years and second best ever.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>铂金再涨 4%，本月累计上涨 34% - 这是近 40 年来的最佳月份，也是历史上第二好的月份。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Markets ‘run it hot’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场 “热火朝天”</p>
</div><p>Juice the economy. That seems to be the Trump administration’s broad plan, which will be achieved in time by tax cuts, deregulation, and loose fiscal policy. And loose monetary policy. Most definitely loose monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>刺激经济。这似乎是特朗普政府的总体计划，最终将通过减税、放松监管和宽松的财政政策来实现。还有宽松的货币政策。毫无疑问，货币政策也将保持宽松。</p>
</div><p>Pressure from the White House on the Fed to cut interest rates is nothing new. The president has unleashed several verbal tirades towards Chair Jerome Powell for not doing so, branding him “very stupid”, “very dumb” and of “low IQ”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白宫对美联储施加降息压力并不是新鲜事。总统对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发起了几次口头攻击，指责他未能采取行动，称他 “非常愚蠢”、“非常笨” 和 “智商低”。</p>
</div><p>Powell’s term as chair expires in May next year, and he insists he can’t be fired. So Trump is now considering naming his replacement early, who could operate as a “shadow” Fed chair, undermining Powell’s influence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔的主席任期将于明年五月到期，他坚称自己不会被解雇。因此，特朗普现在考虑提前任命他的接替者，这可能会作为 “影子” 美联储主席，削弱鲍威尔的影响力。</p>
</div><p>It remains to be seen how effective or even viable this would be. But the fact it’s being floated is pouring fuel on market moves that were already beginning to catch fire - the dollar is tumbling, Fed rate cut bets are being ramped up, stocks are flying, and “Big Tech” is getting its mojo back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是否有效或可行尚待观察。但这一提议的提出正在为已经开始升温的市场动态火上浇油 - 美元正在下跌，美联储降息的押注正在加大，股票飞涨，“大科技” 正在恢复活力。</p>
</div><p>The dollar on Thursday slumped to its lowest in more than three years against a basket of major currencies - performing especially poorly against European currencies - and is on track for its worst first half of any year in over half a century.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，美元兑一篮子主要货币跌至三年多以来的最低点，尤其在对欧洲货币的表现上非常糟糕，并且有望创下半个世纪以来最糟糕的上半年表现。</p>
</div><p>The Trump administration will likely be quite happy with the way markets are reacting - a more export-competitive dollar, lower short-term yields, and higher stocks. And if you look further out, higher nominal growth and above-target inflation to inflate away the debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府可能对市场的反应感到相当满意 - 更具出口竞争力的美元、较低的短期收益率和更高的股票。如果你进一步观察，名义增长和超出目标的通胀将有助于减轻债务负担。</p>
</div><p>The danger is these moves snowball and the dollar goes into a more rapid freefall, triggering widespread market dislocation. But we’re not there yet, and investors are running with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>危险在于这些变动可能会加剧，美元可能会迅速下跌，导致市场广泛失调。但我们还没有到达那个地步，投资者正在顺势而为。</p>
</div><p>Hawkish Fed could inflict markets’ biggest ‘pain trades’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鹰派美联储可能会给市场带来最大的 “痛苦交易”</p>
</div><p>As the first half of the year closes, financial markets are in limbo, waiting to see how the kaleidoscope of global trade deals will – or won’t – come together after July 9, when Washington’s pause on its “reciprocal tariffs” expires. But if investors are wrong-footed, which trades will be the most vulnerable?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着上半年结束，金融市场处于停滞状态，等待看到全球贸易协议的万花筒在 7 月 9 日华盛顿暂停 “对等关税” 后将如何 - 或不会 - 汇聚。但如果投资者判断失误，哪些交易将是最脆弱的？</p>
</div><p>The state of suspended animation in today’s markets is remarkably bullish. U.S. growth forecasts are rising, S&amp;P 500 earnings growth estimates for next year are running at a punchy 14%, corporate deal-making is picking up, and world stocks are at record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天市场的悬而未决状态显得异常乐观。美国的增长预测正在上升，标准普尔 500 指数明年的盈利增长预期高达 14%，企业并购活动正在增加，全球股票创下历史新高。</p>
</div><p>The uncertainty immediately following President Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs seems a distant memory. The relief rally has ripped for nearly three months, only taking a brief pause during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唐纳德·特朗普总统 4 月 2 日 “解放日” 关税后不久的不确定性似乎已成为遥远的记忆。反弹行情持续了近三个月，仅在以色列和伊朗之间的 12 天战争期间短暂暂停。</p>
</div><p>It’s a pretty rosy outlook, some might say too rosy. If we do see a pullback, what will be the biggest “pain trades”?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个相当乐观的前景，有人可能会说过于乐观。如果我们真的看到回调，最大的 “痛苦交易” 将是什么？</p>
</div><p>The major pressure points are, unsurprisingly, in asset classes and markets where positioning and sentiment are most overloaded in one direction. As always with crowded trades, a sudden price reversal can push too many investors to the exit door at once, meaning not all will get out in time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要的压力点显然是在资产类别和市场中，投资者的定位和情绪在一个方向上过于集中。正如拥挤交易所示，突然的价格反转可能会迫使太多投资者同时撤出，意味着并非所有人都能及时退出。</p>
</div><p>To identify the most overloaded positions, it’s useful to look at the Bank of America’s monthly global fund manager survey. In the June survey, the top three most-crowded trades right now are long gold (according to 41% of those polled), long “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks (23%), and short U.S. dollar (20%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了识别最过度集中持仓，查看美国银行的月度全球基金经理调查是很有帮助的。在 6 月的调查中，目前最拥挤的三笔交易是：做多黄金（41% 的受访者）、做多 “七大奇迹” 科技股（23%）和做空美元（20%）。</p>
</div><p>This popularity, of course, means these three trades have been highly profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种受欢迎程度当然意味着这三笔交易的盈利能力很高。</p>
</div><p>The “Mag 7” basket of Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Tesla shares accounted for well over half of the S&amp;P 500’s 58% two-year return in 2023 and 2024. The Roundhill equal-weighted “Mag 7” ETF is up 40% this year, and the Nasdaq 100 index, in which these seven stocks make up more than half of the market cap, this week hit a record high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“七大奇迹” 股票篮子包括英伟达、微软、Meta、苹果、亚马逊、谷歌母公司 Alphabet 和特斯拉的股票，占标准普尔 500 指数 2023 年和 2024 年 58% 两年回报的超过一半。Roundhill 等权重 “七大奇迹” ETF 今年上涨了 40%，而纳斯达克 100 指数中这七只股票占市场总市值的超过一半，本周创下历史新高。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the gold price has virtually doubled in the last two-and-a-half years, smashing its way to a record high $3,500 an ounce in April. And the dollar is down 10% this year, on track for its worst first half of any year since the era of free-floating exchange rates was established more than 50 years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，黄金价格在过去两年半几乎翻了一番，4 月份突破 3500 美元/盎司的历史高点。而美元今年下跌了 10%，有望创下自 50 多年前自由浮动汇率时代以来最糟糕的上半年表现。</p>
</div><h3>SLASH AND … BURN?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>削减和……燃烧？</h3>
</div><p>In some ways, these three trades are an offshoot of one fundamental bet: the deep-rooted view that the Federal Reserve will cut U.S. interest rates quite substantially in the next 18 months, a scenario that would make all these positions money-spinners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在某种程度上，这三笔交易是一个基本赌注的衍生品：深信美联储将在未来 18 个月内大幅降低美国利率，这种情景将使所有这些头寸成为赚钱的机会。</p>
</div><p>Even though the Fed’s revised economic projections last week were notable for their hawkish tilt, rates futures markets have been upping their bets on lower rates, largely due to dovish comments from several Fed officials and a sharp fall in oil prices. Traders are now predicting 125 basis points of rate cuts by the end of next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美联储上周修订的经济预测因其鹰派倾向而引人注目，但利率期货市场却在加大对降息的押注，这主要是由于几位美联储官员的鸽派言论和油价的急剧下跌。交易员们现在预测到明年年底将降息 125 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Economists at Morgan Stanley are even more dovish, forecasting no change this year but 175 basis points of cuts next year. That would take the Fed funds range down to 2.5%-2.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的经济学家们更加鸽派，预测今年不会有变化，但明年将降息 175 个基点。这将使美联储基金利率区间降至 2.5%-2.75%。</p>
</div><p>Lower borrowing costs would be especially positive for shares in companies that can expect high future growth rates, like Big Tech. Low rates are also, in theory, good for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较低的借贷成本对那些可以预期高未来增长率的公司股票，尤其是大型科技公司，将特别有利。理论上，低利率对黄金这种无息资产也是有利的。</p>
</div><p>But, on the flip side, it’s difficult to construct a scenario in which the economy is chugging along, supporting equity performance, while the Fed is also slashing rates by 175 bps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但另一方面，很难构建一个经济持续增长、支持股票表现的情景，同时美联储又在大幅降息 175 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Easing on that scale and at that speed would almost certainly signal that the Fed was trying to put out a raging economic fire, most likely a severe slowdown or recession. While risk assets may not necessarily collapse in that environment, over-extended positions would be exposed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如此规模和速度的放松几乎肯定会表明美联储正在试图扑灭一场熊熊的经济大火，很可能是严重的经济放缓或衰退。虽然在这种环境下风险资产不一定会崩溃，但过度扩张的头寸将会暴露。</p>
</div><p>Granted, this isn’t the first time investors have banked on Fed cuts in the past three years, and we have yet to see a major blow-up as a result. Markets have handled “higher-for-longer” rates much better than many observers warned, soaring to new highs in the process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诚然，这并不是投资者在过去三年中首次押注美联储降息，我们尚未看到因此导致的重大崩溃。市场对 “高位持续” 的利率处理得比许多观察者警告的要好，过程中飙升至新高。</p>
</div><p>Still, if “pain trades” do emerge in the second half of the year, it will likely be because of one sore spot: a hawkish Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，如果在下半年出现 “痛苦交易”，很可能是由于一个痛点：鹰派的美联储。</p>
</div><p>What could move markets tomorrow?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明天可能会影响市场的因素有哪些？</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan retail sales (May)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本零售销售（5 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan unemployment (May)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本失业率（5 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan Tokyo inflation (June)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本东京通胀（6 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan Softbank AGM</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本软银股东大会</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Euro zone sentiment indexes (June)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>欧元区情绪指数（6 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. PCE inflation (May)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美国个人消费支出通胀（5 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment, inflation expectations (June, final)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美国密歇根大学消费者信心、通胀预期（6 月，最终）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Lisa Cook participate in ‘Fed Listens’ event</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克和美联储理事丽莎·库克参加 “美联储倾听” 活动</li>
</ul>
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</div><p>Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所表达的观点仅代表作者本人，不反映路透社的观点，路透社在信托原则下致力于诚信、独立和无偏见。</p>
</div><p>Dollar free falling</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元自由下跌</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3I2xY5D" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3I2xY5D"/></p>
<p>Most crowded trades - BofA fund manager survey</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最拥挤的交易 - 美银基金经理调查</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/44jb9SN" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/44jb9SN"/></p>
<p>Implied Fed funds futures curve lurches lower</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隐含的美联储基金期货曲线急剧下滑</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Gizb8p" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3Gizb8p"/></p>
<p>(By Jamie McGeever)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：杰米·麦基弗）</p>
</div>

TRADING DAY-Markets 'run it hot'

- 美元下滑，股市上涨，因投资者预期美联储将降息。  
- 全球股市创下新高，美元指数跌至三年低点。  
- 投资者关注美联储政策变化，可能导致市场波动。

交易日——市场 “热火朝天”