<p>Rae Wee 对欧洲和全球市场的前景展望</p><p>周五，亚洲股市攀升至三年多以来的最高点，欧洲市场也有望加入这一涨势，因市场在经历了几周的中东紧张局势和关税不确定性后变得乐观。</p><p>华尔街在隔夜引领了这一趋势，投资者关注到最新的积极进展：以色列和伊朗之间脆弱的停火协议继续维持，而中美贸易紧张局势则显示出进一步缓和的初步迹象。</p><p>市场对美联储进一步降息的预期也在上升，随着更温和的美联储主席的前景和持续疲软的美国经济数据。</p><p>在贸易方面，一位白宫官员周四表示，美国已与中国达成协议，以加快稀土矿石向美国的运输。</p><p>对投资者来说，利好因素还包括美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特要求国会的共和党人从其广泛的预算立法中删除针对外国投资者的 “报复性税” 提案。</p><p>周五市场的下一个关键将是美国核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数的发布，这可能为美联储的利率轨迹提供额外线索。</p><p>到目前为止，特朗普总统的关税并未显现出导致国内消费价格大幅上涨的迹象，这让许多投资者感到担忧，尽管美联储官员表示现在还为时尚早。</p><p>如果周五的 PCE 数据出现意外下滑，可能会加大市场对美联储今年进一步宽松的押注。</p><p>在过去两个交易日中，美联储的利率前景和主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在央行的未来一直是市场关注的焦点，此前《华尔街日报》报道称，特朗普考虑在九月或十月宣布鲍威尔的接替人选。</p><p>这将使鲍威尔在其任期的最后六次会议中面临 “阴影”。</p><p>这些发展引发了美元的大规模抛售，投资者对美联储的独立性感到担忧，并押注鲍威尔将被更倾向于降息的人选取代。</p><p>周五，美元徘徊在三年半低点附近，预计将迎来一个多月以来最糟糕的一周。</p><p>截至目前，美元今年已下跌超过 10%，如果最新的损失持续到月底，将标志着自 1970 年代初自由浮动货币时代以来上半年最大跌幅。</p><p>可能影响周五市场的关键发展：</p><ul><li>法国初步通胀（六月）</li><li>美国 PCE 价格指数（五月）想要跟上最新的关税新闻？我们的新每日新闻摘要提供了影响全球贸易的市场动态头条的概述。请在此注册《关税观察》。</li></ul><p>美国市场今年的表现如何</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b0efe867bd7efe815e80cb088d232e51?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="830" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b0efe867bd7efe815e80cb088d232e51"/></figure><p>专家认为美联储的未来走向</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/de21eb73e76123a4a6b7af8c9a74cea6?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="812" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/de21eb73e76123a4a6b7af8c9a74cea6"/></figure><p>（作者：Rae Wee；编辑：Edmund Klamann）</p>

<p>欧洲和全球市场乐观，亚洲股市创下三年新高，受到中东脆弱停火和中美贸易紧张局势缓解的提振。对美联储进一步降息的预期正在上升，尤其是在美国经济数据疲软的背景下。一个关键关注点是即将公布的美国核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数，这可能会影响美联储的利率走向。美元接近 3.5 年来的低点，反映出对美联储独立性和潜在领导层变动的担忧。主要动态包括法国的初步通胀数据和美国 PCE 价格指数的发布</p>

<p>A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rae Wee 对欧洲和全球市场的前景展望</p>
</div><p>Asian shares climbed to their highest in more than three years on Friday and Europe looked set to join the rally, as markets turned optimistic after weathering a few weeks of heightened Middle East tensions and uncertainties over tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，亚洲股市攀升至三年多以来的最高点，欧洲市场也有望加入这一涨势，因市场在经历了几周的中东紧张局势和关税不确定性后变得乐观。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street set the pace overnight when investors latched onto the latest upbeat developments: The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran continued to hold, and China-U.S. trade tensions showed tentative signs of further easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街在隔夜引领了这一趋势，投资者关注到最新的积极进展：以色列和伊朗之间脆弱的停火协议继续维持，而中美贸易紧张局势则显示出进一步缓和的初步迹象。</p>
</div><p>Expectations were also rising for more rate cuts by the Fed, with the prospect of a more dovish Fed chair on the horizon and continued weak U.S. economic data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场对美联储进一步降息的预期也在上升，随着更温和的美联储主席的前景和持续疲软的美国经济数据。</p>
</div><p>On the trade front, a White House official said on Thursday the United States had reached an agreement with China on how to expedite rare earths shipments to the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在贸易方面，一位白宫官员周四表示，美国已与中国达成协议，以加快稀土矿石向美国的运输。</p>
</div><p>Adding to tailwinds for investors, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asked Republicans in Congress to remove from their sweeping budget legislation a “retaliatory tax” proposal that targets foreign investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对投资者来说，利好因素还包括美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特要求国会的共和党人从其广泛的预算立法中删除针对外国投资者的 “报复性税” 提案。</p>
</div><p>The next key for markets on Friday will be the release of the core PCE price index in the U.S., which could offer additional clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五市场的下一个关键将是美国核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数的发布，这可能为美联储的利率轨迹提供额外线索。</p>
</div><p>There have been few signs thus far that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are causing the huge spike in domestic consumer prices that many investors had feared, although Fed officials have said it is still too early to tell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，特朗普总统的关税并未显现出导致国内消费价格大幅上涨的迹象，这让许多投资者感到担忧，尽管美联储官员表示现在还为时尚早。</p>
</div><p>Any downside surprise in Friday’s PCE numbers could fuel bets on more easing by the Fed this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果周五的 PCE 数据出现意外下滑，可能会加大市场对美联储今年进一步宽松的押注。</p>
</div><p>The Fed’s rate outlook and Chair Jerome Powell’s future at the central bank have been front and centre for markets over the past two sessions, after the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has toyed with the idea of announcing Powell’s replacement by September or October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去两个交易日中，美联储的利率前景和主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在央行的未来一直是市场关注的焦点，此前《华尔街日报》报道称，特朗普考虑在九月或十月宣布鲍威尔的接替人选。</p>
</div><p>That would leave Powell with a “shadow” looming over him for the last six meetings of his tenure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将使鲍威尔在其任期的最后六次会议中面临 “阴影”。</p>
</div><p>These developments have triggered a wave of heavy dollar selling as investors fret about the Fed’s independence and bet that Powell will be replaced by somebody more inclined towards rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些发展引发了美元的大规模抛售，投资者对美联储的独立性感到担忧，并押注鲍威尔将被更倾向于降息的人选取代。</p>
</div><p>The dollar languished near a 3-1⁄2-year low on Friday and was set for its worst week in more than a month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，美元徘徊在三年半低点附近，预计将迎来一个多月以来最糟糕的一周。</p>
</div><p>The dollar is already down more than 10% for the year thus far and, if the latest losses hold until the end of the month, it will mark its biggest fall for the first half of the year since the start of the era of free-floating currencies in the early 1970s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，美元今年已下跌超过 10%，如果最新的损失持续到月底，将标志着自 1970 年代初自由浮动货币时代以来上半年最大跌幅。</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能影响周五市场的关键发展：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>France preliminary inflation (June)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>法国初步通胀（六月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. PCE price index (May) Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美国 PCE 价格指数（五月）想要跟上最新的关税新闻？我们的新每日新闻摘要提供了影响全球贸易的市场动态头条的概述。请在此注册《关税观察》。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>How US markets have performed this year</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国市场今年的表现如何</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4nnpYfL" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4nnpYfL"/></p>
<p>Where experts think the Fed is headed</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>专家认为美联储的未来走向</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4nnhaGK" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4nnhaGK"/></p>
<p>(By Rae Wee; Editing by Edmund Klamann)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：Rae Wee；编辑：Edmund Klamann）</p>
</div>

Stock markets opt for optimism

- 亚洲股市攀升至三年高点，欧洲市场也将加入反弹。  
- 美国与中国达成稀土运输协议，市场对美联储降息预期上升。  
- 周五将发布美国核心 PCE 价格指数，可能影响美联储的利率走向。  

股市选择乐观情绪