<p>虽然这并不总是能成功，但成功押注于新技术趋势可以成为积累财富的明确途径。这正是 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.52%）投资者非常清楚的事情。截至 6 月 24 日，这家人工智能（AI）基础设施巨头的股价在过去五年中飙升了 1460%。</p>
<p>Nvidia 是全球第二大最有价值的企业，市值接近 3.6 万亿美元。但你现在应该购买这只顶级 AI 股票吗？我认为投资者更应该了解该公司的牛市和熊市案例。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI3NjAvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy13aXRoLW52aWRpYS1zaWduLWluLWZyb250LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI3NjAvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy13aXRoLW52aWRpYS1zaWduLWluLWZyb250LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
<h2>AI 繁荣的典范</h2>
<p>在过去的几年中，没有哪个话题像 AI 一样吸引了所有人的注意。而 Nvidia 凭借其顶级的图形处理单元（GPU）为 AI 训练提供动力，成为主要受益者。从公司的惊人增长来看，这一点显而易见。在 2023 年第一季度到 2026 年第一季度（截至 4 月 27 日）之间，收入飙升了 431%。</p>
<p>创新始终是 Nvidia 一切工作的核心。根据首席财务官 Colette Kress 的说法，最新的 Blackwell 架构的销售是 “公司历史上增长最快的”。在数据中心 GPU 方面，Nvidia 的市场份额估计超过 90%。</p>
<p>盈利能力同样引人注目，在过去三年中，营业收入增长了 1037%。Nvidia 拥有强大的定价能力，支持其利润。</p>
<p>由于 Nvidia 的客户无法冒险在自己的 AI 项目中落后，因此需求在可预见的未来应该保持强劲。所谓的超大规模企业计划在与 AI 相关的基础设施上花费数千亿美元，这直接惠及 Nvidia。</p>
<p>虽然投资者可能熟悉该公司在硬件领域的主导地位，但 Nvidia 在其 CUDA 软件方面也取得了成功。这使得开发者能够构建专门为 Nvidia GPU 工作的 AI 模型。因此，客户面临转换成本，这是该业务的一个关键竞争优势。</p>
<h2>中国是 Nvidia 主导地位的最大风险</h2>
<p>Nvidia 面临的最大风险之一是中国的创新。例如，DeepSeek 开发了使用旧芯片的 AI 模型，这些芯片需要更少的计算能力。这可能导致成本暴跌，因为客户意识到他们不需要在 Nvidia 的高端 GPU 上花费那么多钱，而可以用更便宜的替代品来支持他们的 AI 应用。</p>
<p>从本质上讲，AI 背后的硬件和软件可能会变得商品化。结果将是 Nvidia 失去其差异化，导致收入和利润压力。</p>
<p>谈到中国，Nvidia 也直接受到贸易争端的影响。白宫禁止向第二大经济体销售该公司的高性能芯片。更糟糕的是，Nvidia 为遵守贸易限制而制造的 H20 芯片，现已被禁止在中国销售，这导致数十亿美元的库存减值。</p>
<p>由于 AI 创新在地缘政治层面上的重要性，Nvidia 可能会继续在某种程度上受到限制，无法向中国客户销售芯片。这使得一个巨大市场的需求被排除在外。</p>
<h2>平衡两种观点</h2>
<p>投资者应关注上述提到的风险。然而，目前牛市的论点更具说服力。市场当然也同意这一点，正如近年来股价的巨大涨幅所证明的。</p>
<p>估值可能会促使一些潜在投资者进入这只股票。该股的前瞻市盈率为 34.4。考虑到共识分析师预计 2025 财年至 2028 财年每股收益将以 30% 的复合年增长率增长，目前的估值看起来合理。</p>
<p>由于环境变化如此迅速，充满活力和革命性的技术带来了许多不确定性，但寻求在投资组合中获得 AI 敞口的投资者应考虑在 Nvidia 开始小额投资。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达的股票在过去五年中飙升了 1460%，这得益于其在人工智能基础设施和 GPU 领域的主导地位。该公司在数据中心 GPU 市场的份额超过 90%，预计从 2023 年第一季度到 2026 年第一季度，收入将增长 431%。然而，风险包括来自中国的竞争以及影响销售的贸易限制。尽管面临这些挑战，英伟达的看涨前景依然强劲，预计其未来市盈率为 34.4，预计到 2028 年每年的盈利增长将达到 30%，这使其成为寻求人工智能投资机会的投资者的潜在买入对象</p>

<p>While it may not always work out, successfully betting on new technological trends can be a clear path to building wealth. This is exactly what <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.52%) investors know very well. As of June 24, shares of this artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure powerhouse have soared 1,460% in the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这并不总是能成功，但成功押注于新技术趋势可以成为积累财富的明确途径。这正是 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.52%）投资者非常清楚的事情。截至 6 月 24 日，这家人工智能（AI）基础设施巨头的股价在过去五年中飙升了 1460%。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is the world's second-most-valuable enterprise, with a market capitalization of nearly $3.6 trillion. But should you buy this top AI stock right now? I think investors would be better served by learning both the bull and bear cases for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 是全球第二大最有价值的企业，市值接近 3.6 万亿美元。但你现在应该购买这只顶级 AI 股票吗？我认为投资者更应该了解该公司的牛市和熊市案例。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI3NjAvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy13aXRoLW52aWRpYS1zaWduLWluLWZyb250LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822760%2Fnvidia-headquarters-with-nvidia-sign-in-front.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>A paragon of the AI boom</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AI 繁荣的典范</h2>
</div><p>In the past few years, no topic has attracted everyone's attention quite like AI. And Nvidia, with its top-notch graphics processing units (GPUs) that power AI training, has been the leading beneficiary. This is clear when looking at the company's incredible growth. Between Q1 2023 and Q1 2026 (ended April 27), revenue rocketed 431% higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的几年中，没有哪个话题像 AI 一样吸引了所有人的注意。而 Nvidia 凭借其顶级的图形处理单元（GPU）为 AI 训练提供动力，成为主要受益者。从公司的惊人增长来看，这一点显而易见。在 2023 年第一季度到 2026 年第一季度（截至 4 月 27 日）之间，收入飙升了 431%。</p>
</div><p>Innovation remains at the heart of everything Nvidia does. Sales of the latest Blackwell architecture was the &#34;fastest ramp in company history,&#34; according to CFO Colette Kress. When it comes to data center GPUs, it's estimated that Nvidia has more than a 90% market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>创新始终是 Nvidia 一切工作的核心。根据首席财务官 Colette Kress 的说法，最新的 Blackwell 架构的销售是 “公司历史上增长最快的”。在数据中心 GPU 方面，Nvidia 的市场份额估计超过 90%。</p>
</div><p>Profitability has been equally noteworthy, with operating income rising 1,037% during the same time in the last three years. Nvidia commands strong pricing power, supporting the bottom line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利能力同样引人注目，在过去三年中，营业收入增长了 1037%。Nvidia 拥有强大的定价能力，支持其利润。</p>
</div><p>Demand should remain robust for the foreseeable future because Nvidia's customers can't risk falling behind in their own AI initiatives. So-called hyperscalers plan to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on AI-related infrastructure, which directly benefits Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于 Nvidia 的客户无法冒险在自己的 AI 项目中落后，因此需求在可预见的未来应该保持强劲。所谓的超大规模企业计划在与 AI 相关的基础设施上花费数千亿美元，这直接惠及 Nvidia。</p>
</div><p>While investors might be familiar with the company's dominance in the hardware space, Nvidia is also finding success with its CUDA software. This allows developers to build AI models that work specifically for Nvidia GPUs. Consequently, customers face switching costs, a key competitive strength for the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然投资者可能熟悉该公司在硬件领域的主导地位，但 Nvidia 在其 CUDA 软件方面也取得了成功。这使得开发者能够构建专门为 Nvidia GPU 工作的 AI 模型。因此，客户面临转换成本，这是该业务的一个关键竞争优势。</p>
</div><h2>China is a top risk to Nvidia's dominance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中国是 Nvidia 主导地位的最大风险</h2>
</div><p>One of the biggest risks for Nvidia is the innovation happening in China. For instance, DeepSeek developed AI models using older chips that need less computing power. This could lead to costs plummeting, as customers realize they don't need to spend so much on high-end GPUs from Nvidia and can, instead, power their AI applications with cheaper alternatives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 面临的最大风险之一是中国的创新。例如，DeepSeek 开发了使用旧芯片的 AI 模型，这些芯片需要更少的计算能力。这可能导致成本暴跌，因为客户意识到他们不需要在 Nvidia 的高端 GPU 上花费那么多钱，而可以用更便宜的替代品来支持他们的 AI 应用。</p>
</div><p>In essence, the hardware and software behind AI could become commoditized. The result would be that Nvidia loses its differentiation, leading to revenue and profit pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从本质上讲，AI 背后的硬件和软件可能会变得商品化。结果将是 Nvidia 失去其差异化，导致收入和利润压力。</p>
</div><p>Speaking of China, Nvidia also has been directly impacted by trade spats. The White House banned sales of the company's high-performing chips to the second-largest economy. To make matters worse, Nvidia's H20 chips, which were made to comply with trade restrictions, have since been banned for sale in China, which resulted in billions in write-downs of excess inventory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谈到中国，Nvidia 也直接受到贸易争端的影响。白宫禁止向第二大经济体销售该公司的高性能芯片。更糟糕的是，Nvidia 为遵守贸易限制而制造的 H20 芯片，现已被禁止在中国销售，这导致数十亿美元的库存减值。</p>
</div><p>Because of how important AI innovation is on a geopolitical level, Nvidia likely will continue to be restricted in its efforts to sell chips to customers in China in some way. That shuts out demand from a huge market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于 AI 创新在地缘政治层面上的重要性，Nvidia 可能会继续在某种程度上受到限制，无法向中国客户销售芯片。这使得一个巨大市场的需求被排除在外。</p>
</div><h2>Balancing both arguments</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>平衡两种观点</h2>
</div><p>Investors should keep an eye on the risks mentioned. However, the bull case is more compelling at this point. The market agrees, of course, as evidenced by the stock's monster gain in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应关注上述提到的风险。然而，目前牛市的论点更具说服力。市场当然也同意这一点，正如近年来股价的巨大涨幅所证明的。</p>
</div><p>The valuation could push some prospective investors into the stock. Shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 34.4. Given that consensus analyst estimates call for earnings per share to increase at a compound annual rate of 30% between fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2028, the current valuation looks reasonable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值可能会促使一些潜在投资者进入这只股票。该股的前瞻市盈率为 34.4。考虑到共识分析师预计 2025 财年至 2028 财年每股收益将以 30% 的复合年增长率增长，目前的估值看起来合理。</p>
</div><p>There remains a lot of uncertainty as to how things will shake out, thanks to how quickly the environment can change with such a dynamic and revolutionary technology. But investors seeking AI exposure in their portfolios should consider starting a small position in Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于环境变化如此迅速，充满活力和革命性的技术带来了许多不确定性，但寻求在投资组合中获得 AI 敞口的投资者应考虑在 Nvidia 开始小额投资。</p>
</div>

Is Nvidia Stock a Buy Now?

- Nvidia 股价在过去五年上涨 1,460%，市值接近 3.6 万亿美元。  
- 公司在 AI 硬件和软件领域占据主导地位，预计未来需求强劲。  
- 然而，中国市场的贸易限制和竞争风险可能影响其盈利能力。  

现在是否应该购买英伟达的股票？