<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.56%) 今年让投资者感到失望。截至目前，股价下跌约 19%。而同期 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 则上涨约 4%。该股的表现不佳主要是由于公司的增长令人失望。例如，苹果在上半年的收入同比仅增长 4.4%。</p>
<p>随着这家科技公司的年收入自 2022 年以来徘徊在约 400 亿美元的水平，市场对这家 iPhone 制造商可能接近其全球销售潜力的担忧加剧。但在你对苹果失去信心之前，请考虑以下对该股票的独特看涨理由。这可能会改变你的看法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI4OTgvc3RvY2stdXAtYXBwbGUtYnV5LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI4OTgvc3RvY2stdXAtYXBwbGUtYnV5LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>只需一款成功的新产品</h2>
<p>苹果的产品线高度集中，通常被视为公司的风险。例如，iPhone 占苹果总销售额的约一半，这意味着该关键类别的任何疲软都会对整体业务产生重大影响。更进一步，苹果的集中风险在于，仅有三个产品类别——iPhone、Mac 和 iPad——就占据了公司年总销售额的约三分之二。此外，如果将公司的可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门（主要由 Apple Watch 和 AirPods 的销售组成）纳入苹果产品类别集中度的评估中，仅有五个产品线就占据了总销售额的约四分之三。</p>
<p>剩余的销售额来自苹果的服务部门，该部门在多种服务中实现了多元化，利润率更高，且比硬件销售更具可预测性。</p>
<p>但如果换个角度来看，这种产品集中度也有另一种解读。苹果强大的商业模式及其全球忠实的客户基础使其能够仅通过四个产品类别每年创造约 3000 亿美元的产品销售。因此，考虑到单一产品类别对公司业绩的影响，一款成功的新产品可能会成为公司的重大助力。</p>
<p>实际上，这正是苹果在 AirPods 和 Apple Watch 上所做的。得益于这些标志性且广受欢迎的设备的推出，从 2015 年的 Apple Watch 到 2016 年的 AirPods，公司的可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门如今占总销售额的 9% 以上。而回顾过去，公司在 2010 年推出 iPad 时也做了同样的事情。如今，iPad 占总销售额的 7%。</p>
<p>所有这些都表明，如果苹果在新产品类别中取得成功，公司的销售增长率可能会显著加速。</p>
<h2>服务飞轮</h2>
<p>进一步加强对苹果的投资论点，这里的分析可能低估了新产品类别对整体业务的影响。原因在于，每一款新产品对其他业务领域都有飞轮效应。例如，当客户购买他们的第一款 Apple Watch 或 iPad 时，可能会增加他们与苹果生态系统的整体互动，从而导致更高的服务收入、更大的忠诚度，最终提高客户的终身价值。</p>
<p>如今，苹果已经在探索可能在未来转变为主要收入来源的新产品类别。其中最显著的是公司在空间计算领域的尝试，推出了 Vision Pro。苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克在新设备开始交付前表示，这款新眼镜标志着空间计算的新纪元。尽管这款新产品仍被视为大多数客户会放弃的利基产品，但它表明公司愿意探索可能成为下一个 iPad、Apple Watch 或 AirPods 的新领域。此外，投资者也不应排除 Vision Pro 作为潜在未来催化剂的可能性。尽管目前它不是公司的主要驱动力，但未来版本的设备可能会在客户效用上达到一个转折点。</p>
<p>综上所述，苹果股票的市盈率约为 31，似乎已经反映了未来某个时点回归更高增长率的预期。但这一论点至少有助于加强在这一增长低迷期持有股票的理由。</p>
<p>不过，风险依然显著。例如，苹果的销售增长率可能永远无法恢复到强劲的高个位数水平。这样的不幸结果可能是由于公司某一主要产品类别的疲软，或是未能在任何新类别中获得 traction。但即使考虑到这些风险，整体的风险回报特征似乎仍然足够吸引人，值得持有股票。公司在过去十年中仅凭少数产品类别实现如此增长，表明苹果在未来十年内可能会找到另一个新类别，帮助公司重返强劲增长。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的股票在今年表现不佳，截至目前下跌了 19%，而标准普尔 500 指数则上涨了 4%。人们对收入增长缓慢表示担忧，主要是由于 iPhone 的销售占其总销售额的一半。然而，一款成功的新产品可能会显著提升销售，正如 Apple Watch 和 AirPods 所展现的那样。公司的服务部门也提供了增长的潜力。尽管面临增长停滞的风险，但持有苹果股票的整体风险回报特征仍然具有吸引力，尤其是在 Vision Pro 等空间计算的新业务推出之际</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.56%) has underwhelmed investors this year. As of this writing, shares are down about 19% year to date. That compares with a gain of about 4% for the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> during the same time frame. The stock's underperformance has been driven by the company's disappointing growth. Apple's revenue in the first half of the year, for instance, grew just 4.4% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.56%) 今年让投资者感到失望。截至目前，股价下跌约 19%。而同期 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 则上涨约 4%。该股的表现不佳主要是由于公司的增长令人失望。例如，苹果在上半年的收入同比仅增长 4.4%。</p>
</div><p>With the tech company's total annual revenue hovering at around the $400 million level since 2022, there are some concerns that the iPhone maker may be nearing its maximum global sales potential. But before you count Apple out, consider the following unique bull case for the stock. It might change your mind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着这家科技公司的年收入自 2022 年以来徘徊在约 400 亿美元的水平，市场对这家 iPhone 制造商可能接近其全球销售潜力的担忧加剧。但在你对苹果失去信心之前，请考虑以下对该股票的独特看涨理由。这可能会改变你的看法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI4OTgvc3RvY2stdXAtYXBwbGUtYnV5LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822898%2Fstock-up-apple-buy.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>All it would take is one successful new product</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>只需一款成功的新产品</h2>
</div><p>Apple's concentrated product line is primarily viewed as a risk for the company. For example, the fact that the iPhone accounts for about half of Apple's total sales means that any weakness in the key category will weigh heavily on the overall business. Adding to Apple's concentration risk, just three product categories -- iPhone, Mac, and iPad -- account for about two-thirds of the company's total annual sales. In addition, if you include the company's wearables, home, and accessories segment, primarily consisting of sales of Apple Watch and AirPods, in an assessment of Apple's product category concentration, just five product lines represent about three-fourths of total sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的产品线高度集中，通常被视为公司的风险。例如，iPhone 占苹果总销售额的约一半，这意味着该关键类别的任何疲软都会对整体业务产生重大影响。更进一步，苹果的集中风险在于，仅有三个产品类别——iPhone、Mac 和 iPad——就占据了公司年总销售额的约三分之二。此外，如果将公司的可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门（主要由 Apple Watch 和 AirPods 的销售组成）纳入苹果产品类别集中度的评估中，仅有五个产品线就占据了总销售额的约四分之三。</p>
</div><p>The remaining sales come from Apple's services segment, which is diversified across a range of services, has a higher profit margin, and is more predictable than hardware sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剩余的销售额来自苹果的服务部门，该部门在多种服务中实现了多元化，利润率更高，且比硬件销售更具可预测性。</p>
</div><p>But if you flip the script, there's another way to look at this product concentration. Apple's powerful business model and its global and loyal customer base enable it to generate about $300 billion worth of product sales annually from just four product categories. Therefore, considering how much a single product category can move the needle for the company, a single successful new product would be a likely major tailwind for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果换个角度来看，这种产品集中度也有另一种解读。苹果强大的商业模式及其全球忠实的客户基础使其能够仅通过四个产品类别每年创造约 3000 亿美元的产品销售。因此，考虑到单一产品类别对公司业绩的影响，一款成功的新产品可能会成为公司的重大助力。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, this is exactly what Apple did with AirPods and Apple Watch. Thanks to the launch of these iconic and wildly popular devices, starting with the Apple Watch in 2015 and the AirPods in 2016, the company's wearables, home, and accessories segment now represents more than 9% of total sales. And, looking further back, the company did the same thing with the iPad when it was launched in 2010. Today, the iPad represents 7% of total sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际上，这正是苹果在 AirPods 和 Apple Watch 上所做的。得益于这些标志性且广受欢迎的设备的推出，从 2015 年的 Apple Watch 到 2016 年的 AirPods，公司的可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门如今占总销售额的 9% 以上。而回顾过去，公司在 2010 年推出 iPad 时也做了同样的事情。如今，iPad 占总销售额的 7%。</p>
</div><p>All of this to say, the company's sales growth rates could materially accelerate if Apple sees success in a new product category.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些都表明，如果苹果在新产品类别中取得成功，公司的销售增长率可能会显著加速。</p>
</div><h2>The services flywheel</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>服务飞轮</h2>
</div><p>Strengthening this investment thesis for Apple even more, the analysis here arguably understates the impact of new product categories on the overall business. The reason is that every new product has a flywheel effect on other areas of the business, too. For instance, when a customer buys his or her first Apple Watch or iPad, it's likely to increase overall engagement with the Apple ecosystem, leading to higher services revenue, greater loyalty, and ultimately higher lifetime customer value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进一步加强对苹果的投资论点，这里的分析可能低估了新产品类别对整体业务的影响。原因在于，每一款新产品对其他业务领域都有飞轮效应。例如，当客户购买他们的第一款 Apple Watch 或 iPad 时，可能会增加他们与苹果生态系统的整体互动，从而导致更高的服务收入、更大的忠诚度，最终提高客户的终身价值。</p>
</div><p>Today, Apple is already venturing into new product categories that could morph into major revenue streams in the future. The most notable one is the company's foray into spatial computing with Vision Pro. Launched just last year, these new goggles mark a new era of spatial computing, Apple CEO Tim Cook said just before deliveries of the new device started. While the new product is still considered a niche item that most customers pass on, it shows that the company is willing to explore new areas that could become the next iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods for the company. In addition, investors shouldn't rule out Vision Pro specifically as a potential future catalyst. While it's not a major driver for the company today, future iterations of the device could lead to a tipping point in customer utility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，苹果已经在探索可能在未来转变为主要收入来源的新产品类别。其中最显著的是公司在空间计算领域的尝试，推出了 Vision Pro。苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克在新设备开始交付前表示，这款新眼镜标志着空间计算的新纪元。尽管这款新产品仍被视为大多数客户会放弃的利基产品，但它表明公司愿意探索可能成为下一个 iPad、Apple Watch 或 AirPods 的新领域。此外，投资者也不应排除 Vision Pro 作为潜在未来催化剂的可能性。尽管目前它不是公司的主要驱动力，但未来版本的设备可能会在客户效用上达到一个转折点。</p>
</div><p>With all of this said, Apple stock's price-to-earnings ratio of about 31 already seems to price in a return to higher growth rates at some point in the future. But this thesis at least helps strengthen the case for holding shares through this lull in growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综上所述，苹果股票的市盈率约为 31，似乎已经反映了未来某个时点回归更高增长率的预期。但这一论点至少有助于加强在这一增长低迷期持有股票的理由。</p>
</div><p>Still, the risks are significant. For instance, it's possible Apple's sales growth rates will never return to robust high-single-digit rates. An unfortunate outcome like this could be caused by weakness in one of the company's major product categories or simply a failure to gain traction in any new categories. But even with these risks in mind, the overall risk-reward profile seems attractive enough to hold onto shares. The fact that the company has been able to grow as much as it has over the past decade with just a handful of product categories suggests that Apple will likely find another new category over the next decade to help the company return to strong growth again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，风险依然显著。例如，苹果的销售增长率可能永远无法恢复到强劲的高个位数水平。这样的不幸结果可能是由于公司某一主要产品类别的疲软，或是未能在任何新类别中获得 traction。但即使考虑到这些风险，整体的风险回报特征似乎仍然足够吸引人，值得持有股票。公司在过去十年中仅凭少数产品类别实现如此增长，表明苹果在未来十年内可能会找到另一个新类别，帮助公司重返强劲增长。</p>
</div>

A Bull Case for Apple: Is It a Sleeping Giant?

- 苹果公司股价今年下跌约 19%，与标普 500 指数的 4% 增长形成对比。  
- 公司的营收增长乏力，第一季度同比仅增长 4.4%。  
- 新产品的成功可能会显著推动销售增长，尤其是服务业务的飞轮效应。  

苹果的牛市论点：它是否是一个沉睡的巨人？