<p>截至周五上午，<strong>微软</strong>（MSFT -0.28%）的市值为 3.695 万亿美元。这意味着其股票只需再上涨 8.3%，该公司就能成为 4 万亿美元俱乐部的创始成员，我认为到 2025 年底这一可能性非常强（尽管 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.74%）以其 3.835 万亿美元的市值可能会更早达到这一目标）。</p>
<p>人工智能（AI）是微软在过去几年中价值不断增长的主要驱动力。该公司正从多个不同角度接近这一有利可图的机会，并且已经在软件和云计算领域成为行业领导者。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwNTIvdGhlLWluc2lkZS1vZi1hLWRhdGEtY2VudGVyLXdpdGgtZG96ZW5zLW9mLXNlcnZlci1zdGFja3MuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwNTIvdGhlLWluc2lkZS1vZi1hLWRhdGEtY2VudGVyLXdpdGgtZG96ZW5zLW9mLXNlcnZlci1zdGFja3MuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>以下是人工智能可能成为微软今年达到 4 万亿美元估值的原因。</p>
<h2>微软拥有多样化的人工智能产品组合</h2>
<p>自 2019 年以来，微软已向 ChatGPT 的创始公司 OpenAI 投资约 140 亿美元，并将该初创公司的行业领先 AI 模型与自己的技术相结合，创建了 Copilot 虚拟助手。Copilot 在一些微软的旗舰软件（如 Windows、Edge 和 Bing）中可以免费使用，但在多个产品中也作为付费工具提供，具体包括：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>365（Word、Excel、PowerPoint）</strong>：企业可以为其员工增加 Copilot 的月度订阅费用，以提高生产力。在 2025 财年第三季度（截至 3 月 31 日），微软表示使用 Copilot for 365 的组织数量同比增长了三倍，达到了数十万。</li>
<li><strong>Copilot Studio</strong>：该平台允许企业创建自定义 AI 代理并将其部署到日常使用的软件应用中，以提高生产力，目前已有超过 230,000 个客户。</li>
<li><strong>Dragon Copilot</strong>：这是针对医疗行业的解决方案，可以自主转录医生与患者之间的对话，快速生成转诊信，并总结诊断证据以帮助改善结果。</li>
</ul>
<p>但 Copilot 并不是微软产品组合中唯一产生收入的 AI 产品，因为该公司运营着全球最大的云计算平台之一——Azure，现在在 Azure AI 的名下提供一系列 AI 产品和服务。</p>
<p>Azure AI 向企业租赁最先进的数据中心基础设施，配备了来自英伟达等供应商的最新 AI 芯片。它还提供来自 OpenAI 等公司的现成大型语言模型（LLMs），开发人员可以利用这些模型加速他们的 AI 软件项目。</p>
<h2>人工智能正在迅速成为 Azure 的驱动力</h2>
<p>Azure 通常是微软整个组织中增长最快的部分，但如果没有 Azure AI，它可能最近失去了这一称号。不到两年前，Azure AI 仅占 Azure 季度收入增长的五个百分点。在最近的 2025 财年第三季度，它占据了 16 个百分点，意味着几乎占据了 Azure 整体增长的一半。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwNTIvbWljcm9zb2Z0LWF6dXJlLWFuZC1henVyZS1haS1ncm93dGgtcTMtZnkyMDI1LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="700" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwNTIvbWljcm9zb2Z0LWF6dXJlLWFuZC1henVyZS1haS1ncm93dGgtcTMtZnkyMDI1LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>Azure AI 的贡献预计将进一步增加，因为微软首席财务官 Amy Hood 表示，该部门有高达 3150 亿美元的订单积压，来自等待更多数据中心容量上线的 AI 客户。微软正在尽快建设更多数据中心，并在上个季度在 10 个不同国家开设了新的数据中心。</p>
<p>事实上，该公司在 2025 财年（截至 6 月 30 日）预计在建设 AI 基础设施方面的支出将超过 800 亿美元。管理层的指导表明，考虑到未来的机会，这一数字在 2026 财年可能会进一步增长，这并不令人惊讶。</p>
<h2>微软能否在 2025 年加入 4 万亿美元俱乐部？</h2>
<p>根据微软过去 12 个月的每股收益（EPS），其股票的市盈率（P/E）为 38.2。这比其五年平均水平 33.4 高出 14%，这表明投资者目前愿意为该股票支付溢价：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3bf30796019947cc7275dd0949da45b5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3bf30796019947cc7275dd0949da45b5.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>微软的 2026 财年将于 7 月 1 日开始，华尔街的共识估计（由 Yahoo! Finance 提供）表明，该公司可能实现每股收益 15.14 美元，增长超过 13%。这使得其股票的前瞻市盈率为 32.6。</p>
<p>这意味着微软的股票在未来 12 个月内需要上涨约 17%，才能维持其当前的 38.2 市盈率，考虑到其 AI 业务的强劲表现，这一假设是合理的。如果该公司在 2026 财年的前两个季度（即 2025 日历年）实现强劲收益，那么投资者可能会提前开始定价全年的结果——尤其是考虑到股市是一个前瞻性的机器。</p>
<p>换句话说，微软的股票在接下来的六个月内可能会实现大部分 17% 的潜在上涨。请记住，它只需上涨 8.3%，该公司的估值就能达到 4 万亿美元，因此它完全有可能在 2025 年结束之前实现这一里程碑。</p>

微软

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>微软的市值为 3.695 万亿美元，需要 8.3% 的增长才能在 2025 年达到 4 万亿美元的目标。人工智能是关键的增长驱动力，微软在 OpenAI 方面进行了重大投资，并拥有多样化的人工智能产品组合，包括 Copilot 和 Azure AI。Azure AI 对收入增长的贡献大幅上升，得益于 3150 亿美元的订单积压。分析师预测 2026 财年的每股收益增长为 13%，这意味着股价可能需要上涨 17% 以维持当前的市盈率。2025 年的强劲收益可能进一步增强投资者信心</p>

<p><strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.28%) had a market capitalization of $3.695 trillion as of Friday morning. That means its stock only needs to climb by another 8.3% for the company to become the founding member of the $4 trillion club, which I think is a very strong possibility by the end of 2025 (although <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.74%) with its $3.835 trillion market cap could get there first).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至周五上午，<strong>微软</strong>（MSFT -0.28%）的市值为 3.695 万亿美元。这意味着其股票只需再上涨 8.3%，该公司就能成为 4 万亿美元俱乐部的创始成员，我认为到 2025 年底这一可能性非常强（尽管 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.74%）以其 3.835 万亿美元的市值可能会更早达到这一目标）。</p>
</div><p>Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the primary driver of Microsoft's increasing value over the last couple of years. The company is approaching this lucrative opportunity from several different angles, and it has already become an industry leader in the software and cloud segments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能（AI）是微软在过去几年中价值不断增长的主要驱动力。该公司正从多个不同角度接近这一有利可图的机会，并且已经在软件和云计算领域成为行业领导者。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwNTIvdGhlLWluc2lkZS1vZi1hLWRhdGEtY2VudGVyLXdpdGgtZG96ZW5zLW9mLXNlcnZlci1zdGFja3MuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823052%2Fthe-inside-of-a-data-center-with-dozens-of-server-stacks.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Here's why AI could be Microsoft's ticket to a $4 trillion valuation this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是人工智能可能成为微软今年达到 4 万亿美元估值的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft has a diverse AI product portfolio</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软拥有多样化的人工智能产品组合</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft has invested around $14 billion in ChatGPT creator OpenAI since 2019, and it has combined the start-up's industry-leading AI models with its own to create the Copilot virtual assistant. Copilot is accessible for free in some of Microsoft's flagship software (like Windows, Edge, and Bing), but it's also available as a paid tool in several products, like the following:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2019 年以来，微软已向 ChatGPT 的创始公司 OpenAI 投资约 140 亿美元，并将该初创公司的行业领先 AI 模型与自己的技术相结合，创建了 Copilot 虚拟助手。Copilot 在一些微软的旗舰软件（如 Windows、Edge 和 Bing）中可以免费使用，但在多个产品中也作为付费工具提供，具体包括：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>365 (Word, Excel, PowerPoint)</strong>: Enterprises can add Copilot for an additional monthly subscription fee to boost the productivity of their employees. In the fiscal 2025 third quarter (ended March 31), Microsoft said the number of organizations using Copilot for 365 tripled year over year to the hundreds of thousands.</li>
<li><strong>Copilot Studio</strong>: This platform allows enterprises to create custom AI agents and deploy them into the software applications they use each day to boost productivity, and it already has over 230,000 customers.</li>
<li><strong>Dragon Copilot</strong>: This is a solution for the healthcare industry, which can autonomously transcribe conversations between doctors and their patients, rapidly generate referral letters, and even summarize diagnosis evidence to help improve outcomes.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>365（Word、Excel、PowerPoint）</strong>：企业可以为其员工增加 Copilot 的月度订阅费用，以提高生产力。在 2025 财年第三季度（截至 3 月 31 日），微软表示使用 Copilot for 365 的组织数量同比增长了三倍，达到了数十万。</li>
<li><strong>Copilot Studio</strong>：该平台允许企业创建自定义 AI 代理并将其部署到日常使用的软件应用中，以提高生产力，目前已有超过 230,000 个客户。</li>
<li><strong>Dragon Copilot</strong>：这是针对医疗行业的解决方案，可以自主转录医生与患者之间的对话，快速生成转诊信，并总结诊断证据以帮助改善结果。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>But Copilot isn't the only revenue-generating AI product in Microsoft's portfolio because the company operates one of the world's largest cloud computing platforms called Azure, which now offers a suite of AI products and services under the Azure AI banner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Copilot 并不是微软产品组合中唯一产生收入的 AI 产品，因为该公司运营着全球最大的云计算平台之一——Azure，现在在 Azure AI 的名下提供一系列 AI 产品和服务。</p>
</div><p>Azure AI leases state-of-the-art data center infrastructure to businesses, which is fitted with the latest AI chips from suppliers like Nvidia. It also offers access to ready-made large language models (LLMs) from the likes of OpenAI, which developers can use to accelerate their AI software projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Azure AI 向企业租赁最先进的数据中心基础设施，配备了来自英伟达等供应商的最新 AI 芯片。它还提供来自 OpenAI 等公司的现成大型语言模型（LLMs），开发人员可以利用这些模型加速他们的 AI 软件项目。</p>
</div><h2>AI is quickly becoming the driving force behind Azure</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能正在迅速成为 Azure 的驱动力</h2>
</div><p>Azure is often the fastest-growing part of Microsoft's entire organization, but it might have lost that title recently if not for Azure AI. A little less than two years ago, Azure AI accounted for just five percentage points of Azure's quarterly revenue growth. In the recent fiscal 2025 third quarter, it represented 16 percentage points, meaning it accounted for almost <em>half</em> of Azure's overall growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Azure 通常是微软整个组织中增长最快的部分，但如果没有 Azure AI，它可能最近失去了这一称号。不到两年前，Azure AI 仅占 Azure 季度收入增长的五个百分点。在最近的 2025 财年第三季度，它占据了 16 个百分点，意味着几乎占据了 Azure 整体增长的一半。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwNTIvbWljcm9zb2Z0LWF6dXJlLWFuZC1henVyZS1haS1ncm93dGgtcTMtZnkyMDI1LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823052%2Fmicrosoft-azure-and-azure-ai-growth-q3-fy2025.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>The contribution from Azure AI is likely to increase further from here because Microsoft CFO Amy Hood says the segment has a staggering $315 billion order backlog from AI customers who are waiting for more data center capacity to come online. Microsoft is building more data centers as fast as it can, and it opened new ones in 10 different countries during the last quarter alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Azure AI 的贡献预计将进一步增加，因为微软首席财务官 Amy Hood 表示，该部门有高达 3150 亿美元的订单积压，来自等待更多数据中心容量上线的 AI 客户。微软正在尽快建设更多数据中心，并在上个季度在 10 个不同国家开设了新的数据中心。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the company is on track to have spent over $80 billion building AI infrastructure during fiscal 2025, which ends on June 30. Management's guidance suggests that the figure is likely to grow in fiscal 2026, which isn't a surprise, given the size of the opportunity ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，该公司在 2025 财年（截至 6 月 30 日）预计在建设 AI 基础设施方面的支出将超过 800 亿美元。管理层的指导表明，考虑到未来的机会，这一数字在 2026 财年可能会进一步增长，这并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div><h2>Can Microsoft join the $4 trillion club in 2025?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软能否在 2025 年加入 4 万亿美元俱乐部？</h2>
</div><p>Based on Microsoft's trailing 12-month earnings per share (EPS), its stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 38.2. That's 14% higher than its five-year average of 33.4, which suggests investors are willing to pay a premium for the stock at the moment:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据微软过去 12 个月的每股收益（EPS），其股票的市盈率（P/E）为 38.2。这比其五年平均水平 33.4 高出 14%，这表明投资者目前愿意为该股票支付溢价：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3bf30796019947cc7275dd0949da45b5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3bf30796019947cc7275dd0949da45b5.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft's fiscal year 2026 begins on July 1, and Wall Street's consensus estimate (provided by Yahoo! Finance) suggests the company could deliver $15.14 in EPS, which would represent growth of over 13%. That places its stock at a forward P/E ratio of 32.6.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的 2026 财年将于 7 月 1 日开始，华尔街的共识估计（由 Yahoo! Finance 提供）表明，该公司可能实现每股收益 15.14 美元，增长超过 13%。这使得其股票的前瞻市盈率为 32.6。</p>
</div><p>That means Microsoft stock would have to climb by around 17% over the next 12 months in order to maintain its current P/E ratio of 38.2, which is a fair assumption given the strength of its AI business. If the company delivers strong earnings during the first two quarters of fiscal 2026 (which fall in calendar year 2025), then investors might start pricing in the full-year result early -- especially considering that the stock market is a forward-looking machine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着微软的股票在未来 12 个月内需要上涨约 17%，才能维持其当前的 38.2 市盈率，考虑到其 AI 业务的强劲表现，这一假设是合理的。如果该公司在 2026 财年的前两个季度（即 2025 日历年）实现强劲收益，那么投资者可能会提前开始定价全年的结果——尤其是考虑到股市是一个前瞻性的机器。</p>
</div><p>In other words, it's possible Microsoft stock will deliver the majority of that 17% in potential upside in the next six months or so. Remember, it only needs a gain of 8.3% for the company's valuation to hit $4 trillion, so it could certainly achieve the milestone before 2025 is over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，微软的股票在接下来的六个月内可能会实现大部分 17% 的潜在上涨。请记住，它只需上涨 8.3%，该公司的估值就能达到 4 万亿美元，因此它完全有可能在 2025 年结束之前实现这一里程碑。</p>
</div>

Can Microsoft Join the $4 Trillion Club in 2025?

- 微软市值为 3.695 万亿美元，需再涨 8.3% 成为 4 万亿俱乐部成员。  
- 人工智能是推动微软价值增长的主要因素，已在软件和云领域领先。  
- 微软在 AI 基础设施上投资超过 80 亿美元，预计将继续增长。  

微软能否在 2025 年跻身 4 万亿美元俱乐部？