<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.67%) 的股票处于一个棘手的境地。分析师预计下个季度的收益将比去年同期下降近 30%。然而，从市销率来看，该股票的估值仍然高达 12.6。</p>
<p>另一方面，<strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>，另一家电动车股票，仅以 2.9 倍的销售额交易。</p>
<p>尽管未来的盈利增长乏力，特斯拉股票似乎仍然被定价为大幅增长。但下面详细说明的风险因素可能会在未来几年对特斯拉的增长轨迹造成更大的打击。每位投资者都需要仔细监控这一点。</p>
<h2>这个风险因素可能会惩罚特斯拉股票</h2>
<p>目前，特斯拉超过 90% 的汽车销售来自两款车型：Model 3 和 Model Y。两者的起售价均低于 50,000 美元。根据 2024 年 AutoPacific 的一项研究，大多数美国人希望在下一次购车时花费少于 50,000 美元，因此特斯拉在吸引数千万预算买家方面处于有利位置。</p>
<p>为了让特斯拉更加实惠，买家长期以来可以申请联邦税收抵免，最高可达 7,500 美元。Model 3 和 Model Y 均符合这些税收抵免。甚至一些特斯拉的高价车型，如入门级 Cybertruck，也符合条件。结果是消费者的有效购买价格降低，从而对特斯拉的产品需求增加。</p>
<p>问题在于：联邦税收抵免可能即将取消。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI3NzYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ1ODIzNDc1OS0xMjAxeDY5OS1kMmMwNTE2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="407" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI3NzYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ1ODIzNDc1OS0xMjAxeDY5OS1kMmMwNTE2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>特朗普总统的新法案要求立即取消联邦电动车税收激励。如果这发生，特斯拉的销售会怎样？超过一半的电动车买家表示，税收抵免是他们购买的决定性因素。当 2023 年德国的电动车激励措施突然结束时，电动车销售在接下来的六个月内下降了超过 16%。</p>
<p>如果美国取消税收抵免，预计特斯拉的销售和收益将会下降。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票面临挑战，分析师预测下个季度的收益将下降近 30%，而其市销率仍高达 12.6。该公司对售价在 50,000 美元以下的 Model 3 和 Model Y 的依赖，使其在预算有限的买家中具有良好的市场定位。然而，提议取消联邦电动车税收抵免的立法可能会对销售产生重大影响，因为超过一半的电动车买家将这些抵免视为购买决策的关键因素。在德国，类似的情况导致在取消激励措施后电动车销售下降了 16%</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -0.67%) stock is in a tricky place. Analysts expect earnings to drop by nearly 30% next quarter compared to the corresponding quarter last year. Yet, on a price-to-sales basis, the stock's valuation remains sky-high at 12.6.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.67%) 的股票处于一个棘手的境地。分析师预计下个季度的收益将比去年同期下降近 30%。然而，从市销率来看，该股票的估值仍然高达 12.6。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>, another electric car stock, trades at just 2.9 times sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，<strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>，另一家电动车股票，仅以 2.9 倍的销售额交易。</p>
</div><p>Tesla stock seems priced for big growth despite tepid profitability growth ahead. But there's a risk factor detailed below that could put an even bigger dent in Tesla's growth trajectory for years to come. Every investor needs to monitor this one thing carefully.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管未来的盈利增长乏力，特斯拉股票似乎仍然被定价为大幅增长。但下面详细说明的风险因素可能会在未来几年对特斯拉的增长轨迹造成更大的打击。每位投资者都需要仔细监控这一点。</p>
</div><h2>This one risk factor could punish Tesla stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这个风险因素可能会惩罚特斯拉股票</h2>
</div><p>Right now, more than 90% of Tesla's vehicles sales stem from just two models: the Model 3 and Model Y. Both have starting base prices of less than $50,000. Seeing as the majority of Americans are looking to spend less than $50,000 on their next vehicle purchase, according to a 2024 study by AutoPacific, Tesla is in a solid place to attract the tens of millions of budget buyers in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，特斯拉超过 90% 的汽车销售来自两款车型：Model 3 和 Model Y。两者的起售价均低于 50,000 美元。根据 2024 年 AutoPacific 的一项研究，大多数美国人希望在下一次购车时花费少于 50,000 美元，因此特斯拉在吸引数千万预算买家方面处于有利位置。</p>
</div><p>To make Teslas even more affordable, buyers have long been able to qualify for federal tax credits that can total up to $7,500. Both the Model 3 and Model Y qualify for these tax credits. Even some of Tesla's pricier models, like the entry-level Cybertruck, qualify. The result is a lower effective purchase price for consumers, and thus more demand for Tesla's products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了让特斯拉更加实惠，买家长期以来可以申请联邦税收抵免，最高可达 7,500 美元。Model 3 和 Model Y 均符合这些税收抵免。甚至一些特斯拉的高价车型，如入门级 Cybertruck，也符合条件。结果是消费者的有效购买价格降低，从而对特斯拉的产品需求增加。</p>
</div><p>There's just one problem: Federal tax credits may be on the way out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题在于：联邦税收抵免可能即将取消。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI3NzYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ1ODIzNDc1OS0xMjAxeDY5OS1kMmMwNTE2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822776%2Fgettyimages-1458234759-1201x699-d2c0516.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump's new bill calls for the immediate elimination of federal EV tax incentives. What would happen to Tesla's sales if this were to happen? More than half of all EV buyers say that tax credits were a deciding factor in their purchase. When EV incentives abruptly ended in Germany in 2023, EV sales fell by more than 16% over the next six months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统的新法案要求立即取消联邦电动车税收激励。如果这发生，特斯拉的销售会怎样？超过一半的电动车买家表示，税收抵免是他们购买的决定性因素。当 2023 年德国的电动车激励措施突然结束时，电动车销售在接下来的六个月内下降了超过 16%。</p>
</div><p>If tax credits are eliminated in the U.S., expect Tesla's sales and earnings to drop in response.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美国取消税收抵免，预计特斯拉的销售和收益将会下降。</p>
</div>

1 Thing Every Tesla Investor Needs to Watch Right Now

- 特斯拉股票面临盈利下滑近 30% 的预期。  
- 超过 90% 的特斯拉销量来自 Model 3 和 Model Y，价格低于 50,000 美元。  
- 如果联邦税收抵免被取消，特斯拉销量和盈利可能会大幅下降。  

每位特斯拉投资者当前需要密切关注的一件事