<p>科技公司必须不断发展以保持相关性。而 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.74%）对此现象并不陌生。成立于 1993 年的这家传奇芯片制造商最初因视频游戏图形而声名鹊起，随后在加密货币挖矿中获得了显著的推动，最终在 2022 年底随着生成性人工智能的到来迎来了重大突破。</p>
<p>如今，英伟达的数据中心业务（其销售人工智能芯片的部门）占其总收入 441 亿美元的 89%，而曾经的核心游戏部门仅占不到 9%。</p>
<p>但现在并不是管理层自满的时候。已经有迹象表明，其人工智能芯片业务可能正在放缓。在未来十年，向新业务领域的转型可能是公司成功的关键。</p>
<h2>生成性人工智能硬件业务正在放缓</h2>
<p>新巨潮的开始通常会看到大量资本支出，因为硬件迅速改善，公司不顾一切以避免落后于竞争对手。但最终，技术进步会放缓，竞争会加剧，利润率会开始下降。</p>
<p>网络硬件公司 <strong>思科系统</strong> 在互联网泡沫期间经历了这一过程。其股价至今仍未超过 2000 年创下的历史最高点。</p>
<p>到目前为止，没有迹象表明英伟达即将像思科那样崩溃。考虑到其增长率，英伟达的前瞻市盈率（P/E）仅为 34，其估值仍然非常合理。作为参考，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的平均市盈率为 29。然而，有一些早期迹象表明，其生成性人工智能硬件业务可能开始降温。</p>
<p>公司的收入增长已减速至 69%（低于上个财季的 262%）。虽然这可能与最近对中国的芯片出口禁令有关，但更大的故事可能是其客户越来越多地转向内部解决方案来满足其人工智能硬件需求。</p>
<p>好消息是，英伟达有几个有前景的新领域，可以帮助在未来十年多样化其收入来源。</p>
<h2>新业务领域能否拯救局面？</h2>
<p>英伟达在设计和生产尖端计算机芯片方面的专业知识将使其在生成性人工智能之外的机会中占据优势。机器人技术和自动驾驶汽车可能是下一个大趋势。</p>
<p>例如，特斯拉已经广泛使用英伟达的芯片来创建其超级计算机 Dojo，该计算机支持其类人机器人和自动驾驶出租车的训练。后者的项目本月在德克萨斯州奥斯汀开始商业运营。虽然目前尚不清楚这些业务在长期内的表现如何，但它们具有巨大的潜力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI5NjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM4NzkwMDYxMi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="498" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI5NjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM4NzkwMDYxMi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>麦肯锡的分析师认为，到 2035 年，自动驾驶技术可能每年产生 3000 亿到 4000 亿美元的收入，而 <strong>高盛</strong> 估计类人机器人机会到那时可能达到 380 亿美元。英伟达的自动化和机器人部门已经开始增长，第一季度销售同比增长 72%，达到 5.67 亿美元。</p>
<h2>长期投资是否存在风险？</h2>
<p>长期投资通常是股市可持续回报的关键。但当你的时间范围从几年扩展到几十年时，一些意想不到的风险可能会出现。</p>
<p>根据安永的报告，平均而言，美国 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 公司的生命周期仅为 15 年，因为技术颠覆和未能适应变化的环境。许多其他公司即使幸存下来，也经历了长期的停滞期。</p>
<p>英伟达能够保持主导地位，因为其在先进计算机硬件设计方面的巨大规模和竞争壁垒。这些行业在可预见的未来可能会继续存在。</p>
<p>但它是否能继续繁荣将取决于其管理层在生成性人工智能机会继续成熟并可能放缓的情况下，能否有效执行向新技术领域的长期转型。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达未来十年的股票前景取决于其适应市场动态变化的能力。尽管其数据中心业务由人工智能芯片驱动，占其收入的 89%，但该领域增长放缓的迹象正在显现。公司面临竞争和潜在的利润下降，这让人想起过去的科技趋势。然而，英伟达在芯片设计方面的专业知识使其在机器人技术和自动驾驶技术的新机会中处于有利地位，这可能会显著提升收入。长期成功将依赖于在不断变化的技术环境中有效管理这些转型</p>

<p>Technology companies must constantly evolve to stay relevant. And <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.74%) is no stranger to this phenomenon. Founded in 1993, the legendary chipmaker first made its name in video game graphics, eventually getting a notable boost from cryptocurrency mining before its big break with the arrival of generative AI in late 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技公司必须不断发展以保持相关性。而 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.74%）对此现象并不陌生。成立于 1993 年的这家传奇芯片制造商最初因视频游戏图形而声名鹊起，随后在加密货币挖矿中获得了显著的推动，最终在 2022 年底随着生成性人工智能的到来迎来了重大突破。</p>
</div><p>Now, Nvidia's data center business (where it sells AI chips) represents 89% of its $44.1 billion in total revenue, while the once-core gaming segment represents just under 9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，英伟达的数据中心业务（其销售人工智能芯片的部门）占其总收入 441 亿美元的 89%，而曾经的核心游戏部门仅占不到 9%。</p>
</div><p>But this is not the time for management to rest on its laurels. There are already signs that its AI chip business could be slowing. And over the next decade, a transition to new business verticals could be key to the company's success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在并不是管理层自满的时候。已经有迹象表明，其人工智能芯片业务可能正在放缓。在未来十年，向新业务领域的转型可能是公司成功的关键。</p>
</div><h2>The generative AI hardware business is slowing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>生成性人工智能硬件业务正在放缓</h2>
</div><p>The start of a new megatrend will often see a flurry of capital spending as hardware improves rapidly and companies throw caution to the wind to avoid falling behind their rivals. But eventually, the technological improvement will slow down, competition will increase, and margins will start to decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新巨潮的开始通常会看到大量资本支出，因为硬件迅速改善，公司不顾一切以避免落后于竞争对手。但最终，技术进步会放缓，竞争会加剧，利润率会开始下降。</p>
</div><p>The networking hardware company <strong>Cisco Systems</strong> experienced this during the dot-com bubble. Shares have still never surpassed their all-time high reached in 2000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>网络硬件公司 <strong>思科系统</strong> 在互联网泡沫期间经历了这一过程。其股价至今仍未超过 2000 年创下的历史最高点。</p>
</div><p>So far, there is no sign that Nvidia is on the cusp of crashing like Cisco. With a forward price-to-earnings multiple (P/E) of just 34, its valuation remains very reasonable, considering its growth rate. For context, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> averages a P/E of 29. However, there are some early signs that its generative AI hardware business might be starting to cool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，没有迹象表明英伟达即将像思科那样崩溃。考虑到其增长率，英伟达的前瞻市盈率（P/E）仅为 34，其估值仍然非常合理。作为参考，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的平均市盈率为 29。然而，有一些早期迹象表明，其生成性人工智能硬件业务可能开始降温。</p>
</div><p>The company's revenue growth has decelerated to 69% (down from 262% last fiscal quarter). And while this may have something to do with the recent ban on chip exports to China, the bigger story may be that its customers are increasingly turning to in-house solutions for their AI hardware needs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的收入增长已减速至 69%（低于上个财季的 262%）。虽然这可能与最近对中国的芯片出口禁令有关，但更大的故事可能是其客户越来越多地转向内部解决方案来满足其人工智能硬件需求。</p>
</div><p>The good news is that Nvidia has several promising new verticals that could help diversify its revenue streams over the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，英伟达有几个有前景的新领域，可以帮助在未来十年多样化其收入来源。</p>
</div><h2>Will new business niches save the day?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新业务领域能否拯救局面？</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia's expertise in designing and producing cutting-edge computer chips will give it an advantage in opportunities outside of just generative AI. Robotics and self-driving cars could be the next big thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达在设计和生产尖端计算机芯片方面的专业知识将使其在生成性人工智能之外的机会中占据优势。机器人技术和自动驾驶汽车可能是下一个大趋势。</p>
</div><p>For example, Tesla has already made extensive use of Nvidia's chips to create its supercomputer Dojo, which supports the training of its humanoid robots and self-driving taxis. The latter program began commercial operations in Austin, Texas, this month. While it is unclear how these businesses will perform over the long term, they have epic potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，特斯拉已经广泛使用英伟达的芯片来创建其超级计算机 Dojo，该计算机支持其类人机器人和自动驾驶出租车的训练。后者的项目本月在德克萨斯州奥斯汀开始商业运营。虽然目前尚不清楚这些业务在长期内的表现如何，但它们具有巨大的潜力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI5NjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM4NzkwMDYxMi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822965%2Fgettyimages-1387900612.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at McKinsey believe self-driving technology could generate $300 billion to $400 billion in annual revenue by 2035, while <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> estimates the humanoid robot opportunity could hit $38 billion by that time. Nvidia's automation and robotics segment has already started to pick up, with first-quarter sales jumping 72% year over year to $567 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>麦肯锡的分析师认为，到 2035 年，自动驾驶技术可能每年产生 3000 亿到 4000 亿美元的收入，而 <strong>高盛</strong> 估计类人机器人机会到那时可能达到 380 亿美元。英伟达的自动化和机器人部门已经开始增长，第一季度销售同比增长 72%，达到 5.67 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Is there risk in long-term investing?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>长期投资是否存在风险？</h2>
</div><p>Long-term investing is generally the key to sustainable returns in the stock market. But when your time horizon expands from years to decades, some unexpected risks can emerge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>长期投资通常是股市可持续回报的关键。但当你的时间范围从几年扩展到几十年时，一些意想不到的风险可能会出现。</p>
</div><p>According to Ernst &amp; Young, the average U.S. <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> company has a lifespan of just 15 years because of technological disruption and failure to adapt to changing conditions. Many others experience long periods of stagnation, even if they survive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据安永的报告，平均而言，美国 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 公司的生命周期仅为 15 年，因为技术颠覆和未能适应变化的环境。许多其他公司即使幸存下来，也经历了长期的停滞期。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia can maintain a dominant position because of its vast scale and competitive moat in advanced computer hardware design. These industries will probably exist for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达能够保持主导地位，因为其在先进计算机硬件设计方面的巨大规模和竞争壁垒。这些行业在可预见的未来可能会继续存在。</p>
</div><p>But whether or not it continues to thrive will depend on how well its management can execute long-term pivots to new technology verticals as the generative AI opportunity continues to mature and potentially slow down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但它是否能继续繁荣将取决于其管理层在生成性人工智能机会继续成熟并可能放缓的情况下，能否有效执行向新技术领域的长期转型。</p>
</div>

Where Will Nvidia Stock Be in 10 Years?

- Nvidia 的数据中心业务占其总收入的 89%。  
- 生成式 AI 硬件业务增长放缓，营收增速降至 69%。  
- 新业务领域如机器人和自动驾驶车可能成为未来增长点。  

10 年后英伟达的股票会达到什么水平？