<p>沃伦·巴菲特以在正确的时刻做出正确的投资决策而闻名，这帮助 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 在近 60 年内超越了市场。这位不随波逐流的亿万富翁最近做出了一些引人注目的举动，这可能会让你想知道他是否知道一些华尔街不知道的事情。</p>
<p>答案是……是的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwMDUvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtMS10bWYtMjAxNS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwMDUvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtMS10bWYtMjAxNS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>巴菲特的可口可乐投资</h2>
<p>在深入细节之前，先简单说明一下为什么投资者常常向巴菲特寻求建议。作为董事长，他引导伯克希尔哈撒韦自 1965 年以来实现了近 20% 的年复合增长率，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 则仅增长了 10%。巴菲特通过投资于合理或甚至便宜估值的优质公司，并持有多年，达成了这一目标。他策略的完美例子是他在 1980 年代末决定购买 <strong>可口可乐</strong>(KO 1.39%)。</p>
<p>那时，可口可乐的价格合理，交易价格约为过去 12 个月收益的 20 倍。从那时起，巴菲特从该股票的表现和股息支付中获得了巨大的收益。巴菲特表示，他从可口可乐获得的股息从 1994 年最后一次购买股票时的 7500 万美元增加到 2022 年的 7.04 亿美元。自巴菲特开始购买以来，该股票的价格已经飙升了四位数。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e7bdd6d26d2c4d09be870df0a54abbab.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e7bdd6d26d2c4d09be870df0a54abbab.png"/></p>
<p>KO 总回报价格数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>这一投资以及许多其他投资帮助巴菲特将伯克希尔哈撒韦的投资组合扩大到 2580 亿美元，因此投资者想要了解巴菲特的下一步行动并可能跟随他并不奇怪。</p>
<h2>巴菲特的近期举动</h2>
<p>现在，让我们回到巴菲特最近的引人注目的举动。去年，巴菲特将他在 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.04%) 的头寸减少了 67%，并在第四季度结束了他在追踪标准普尔 500 的两个基金中的头寸——<strong>先锋标准普尔 500 ETF</strong> 和 <strong>SPDR 标准普尔 500 ETF 信托</strong>。</p>
<p>这一切发生在整体市场飙升之际，标准普尔 500、<strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 去年均实现了增长。</p>
<p>考虑到这一切，巴菲特究竟知道华尔街不知道什么？巴菲特可能知道高估值会早晚赶上市场，这可能促使他锁定一些来自其长期持有的苹果的收益，甚至减少他对标准普尔 500 的敞口。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，标准普尔 500 的 Shiller CAPE 比率去年飙升超过 36，这是自 1950 年代末标准普尔 500 作为 500 家公司基准推出以来仅发生过两次的情况。Shiller CAPE 比率是一个可靠的估值工具，因为它衡量了 10 年期间的价格和每股收益，以平滑由各种市场条件引起的波动。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9556e06b9195703e7761e0356a414d0c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9556e06b9195703e7761e0356a414d0c.png"/></p>
<p>标准普尔 500 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>因此，当华尔街的大多数人专注于市场的动能时，巴菲特可能在关注一些始终是他策略关键的东西：价格。随着估值飙升，这位亿万富翁知道重大回调即将到来——他为此做好了准备。</p>
<h2>市场面临的压力</h2>
<p>巴菲特的举动证明是明智的，因为指数只需要几个不确定因素就将它们推入了今年早些时候的负值区域。特朗普总统对进口征税的计划引发了对经济和企业收益影响的担忧，而混合的经济数据也加剧了这种担忧。与此同时，苹果的股票因担心进口关税会影响增长而暴跌——该公司大部分 iPhone 在中国生产。</p>
<p>当然，巴菲特并没有水晶球，因此他并不知道这些特定的问题会出现，但他可能知道任何逆风都会因估值水平而对市场造成挑战。尽管估值有所下降，但仍未达到促使巴菲特在第一季度进行重大购买的水平。他最大的举动包括增加对 <strong>康斯特 ellation Brands</strong> 和 <strong>Pool Corp</strong> 的现有头寸。</p>
<p>那么，你如何利用巴菲特的智慧来提升自己的投资组合呢？主要信息是避免以任何价格购买股票或仅仅因为指数上涨而急于进入市场。要跟随巴菲特的脚步，考虑每只股票的个体情况，关注特定公司的盈利实力和竞争优势，一旦以合理的价格购买，就长期持有。每一项举动都应帮助你在股票市场中随着时间的推移最大化获胜的潜力。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

可口可乐

<p>沃伦·巴菲特的投资策略在近 60 年中始终超越市场。最近，他将自己在苹果公司的股份减少了 67%，并退出了两个标准普尔 500 指数 ETF，这表明他预期由于高估值市场将出现回调。巴菲特的长期成功源于以合理的价格投资于优质公司，这一点在他对可口可乐的投资中得到了体现，该投资带来了可观的回报。投资者被鼓励采取类似的方法，关注个别股票的基本面，而不是市场趋势</p>

<p>Warren Buffett is known for generally making the right investing decisions at the right moment, and that's helped <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> beat the market for nearly 60 years. The billionaire, who doesn't follow the crowd, made a couple of standout moves in recent times, and this may prompt you to ask whether he knows something Wall Street doesn't.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特以在正确的时刻做出正确的投资决策而闻名，这帮助 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 在近 60 年内超越了市场。这位不随波逐流的亿万富翁最近做出了一些引人注目的举动，这可能会让你想知道他是否知道一些华尔街不知道的事情。</p>
</div><p>The answer is... yes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>答案是……是的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwMDUvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtMS10bWYtMjAxNS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823005%2Fwarren-buffett-1-tmf-2015.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett's Coca-Cola investment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特的可口可乐投资</h2>
</div><p>Before diving into the details, a quick note about why investors often look to Buffett for advice. As chairman, he's guided Berkshire Hathaway to a compounded annual gain of nearly 20% since 1965, and this is as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index delivered a 10% increase. Buffett's done this by investing in quality companies trading for reasonable or even bargain valuations and holding onto them for many years. A perfect example of his strategy is his decision to buy <strong>Coca-Cola</strong>(KO 1.39%) in the late 1980s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在深入细节之前，先简单说明一下为什么投资者常常向巴菲特寻求建议。作为董事长，他引导伯克希尔哈撒韦自 1965 年以来实现了近 20% 的年复合增长率，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 则仅增长了 10%。巴菲特通过投资于合理或甚至便宜估值的优质公司，并持有多年，达成了这一目标。他策略的完美例子是他在 1980 年代末决定购买 <strong>可口可乐</strong>(KO 1.39%)。</p>
</div><p>At that time, it was reasonably priced, trading for around 20x trailing-12-month earnings. Since then, Buffett has gained tremendously from the stock's performance and dividend payments. Buffett says his dividend from Coca-Cola increased from $75 million in 1994 when he last purchased the shares to $704 million in 2022. The stock has soared in the quadruple digits since the start of Buffett's purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那时，可口可乐的价格合理，交易价格约为过去 12 个月收益的 20 倍。从那时起，巴菲特从该股票的表现和股息支付中获得了巨大的收益。巴菲特表示，他从可口可乐获得的股息从 1994 年最后一次购买股票时的 7500 万美元增加到 2022 年的 7.04 亿美元。自巴菲特开始购买以来，该股票的价格已经飙升了四位数。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e7bdd6d26d2c4d09be870df0a54abbab.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e7bdd6d26d2c4d09be870df0a54abbab.png"/></p>
<p>KO Total Return Price data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>KO 总回报价格数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>This and many other investments have helped Buffett grow the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio to $258 billion, so it's not surprising that investors want to know about Buffett's next steps -- and potentially follow them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一投资以及许多其他投资帮助巴菲特将伯克希尔哈撒韦的投资组合扩大到 2580 亿美元，因此投资者想要了解巴菲特的下一步行动并可能跟随他并不奇怪。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett's recent moves</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特的近期举动</h2>
</div><p>Now, let's get back to Buffett's latest standout moves. The billionaire throughout last year reduced his position by 67% in his top holding, <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.04%), and in the fourth quarter closed out his positions in two funds that track the S&amp;P 500 -- the <strong>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> and the <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，让我们回到巴菲特最近的引人注目的举动。去年，巴菲特将他在 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.04%) 的头寸减少了 67%，并在第四季度结束了他在追踪标准普尔 500 的两个基金中的头寸——<strong>先锋标准普尔 500 ETF</strong> 和 <strong>SPDR 标准普尔 500 ETF 信托</strong>。</p>
</div><p>This happened as the overall market soared, with the S&amp;P 500, the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>, and the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> each posting a gain last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一切发生在整体市场飙升之际，标准普尔 500、<strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 去年均实现了增长。</p>
</div><p>With all of this in mind, what exactly does Buffett know that Wall Street doesn't? Buffett likely knew that high valuations would catch up with the market sooner rather than later, and that could have prompted him to lock in some gains from his long-term holding, Apple, and even cut his exposure to the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一切，巴菲特究竟知道华尔街不知道什么？巴菲特可能知道高估值会早晚赶上市场，这可能促使他锁定一些来自其长期持有的苹果的收益，甚至减少他对标准普尔 500 的敞口。</p>
</div><p>It's important to note that the S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio surged past the level of 36 last year, something it only did two other times since the late 1950s when the S&amp;P 500 launched as a 500-company benchmark. The Shiller CAPE ratio is a sound valuation tool since it measures price and earnings per share over a 10-year period to smooth out bumps caused by various market conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，标准普尔 500 的 Shiller CAPE 比率去年飙升超过 36，这是自 1950 年代末标准普尔 500 作为 500 家公司基准推出以来仅发生过两次的情况。Shiller CAPE 比率是一个可靠的估值工具，因为它衡量了 10 年期间的价格和每股收益，以平滑由各种市场条件引起的波动。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9556e06b9195703e7761e0356a414d0c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9556e06b9195703e7761e0356a414d0c.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>So, while most of Wall Street focused on the market's momentum, Buffett might have been looking at something that, as mentioned, has always been key to his strategy: price. And as valuations soared, the billionaire knew a major pullback was ahead -- and he prepared for it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，当华尔街的大多数人专注于市场的动能时，巴菲特可能在关注一些始终是他策略关键的东西：价格。随着估值飙升，这位亿万富翁知道重大回调即将到来——他为此做好了准备。</p>
</div><h2>What's weighed on the market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场面临的压力</h2>
</div><p>Buffett's moves turned out to be wise, as indexes only needed a couple of uncertainties to push them into negative territory earlier this year. President Donald Trump's plan to tax imports stirred up concern about the impact on the economy and corporate earnings, and mixed economic data added to that. Meanwhile, Apple shares plummeted amid fears that import tariffs would hurt growth -- the company makes most of its iPhones in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特的举动证明是明智的，因为指数只需要几个不确定因素就将它们推入了今年早些时候的负值区域。特朗普总统对进口征税的计划引发了对经济和企业收益影响的担忧，而混合的经济数据也加剧了这种担忧。与此同时，苹果的股票因担心进口关税会影响增长而暴跌——该公司大部分 iPhone 在中国生产。</p>
</div><p>Of course, Buffett doesn't have a crystal ball, so he didn't know that these particular troubles would arise, but he may have known that any headwind would prove challenging for the market due to the level of valuations. Though valuations have come down somewhat, they still aren't at levels that have prompted Buffett to make significant purchases in Q1. His biggest moves included adding to his current positions in <strong>Constellation Brands</strong> and <strong>Pool Corp</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，巴菲特并没有水晶球，因此他并不知道这些特定的问题会出现，但他可能知道任何逆风都会因估值水平而对市场造成挑战。尽管估值有所下降，但仍未达到促使巴菲特在第一季度进行重大购买的水平。他最大的举动包括增加对 <strong>康斯特 ellation Brands</strong> 和 <strong>Pool Corp</strong> 的现有头寸。</p>
</div><p>So, how can you use this Buffett wisdom to boost your own portfolio? The main message is avoid buying a stock for any price or rushing into the market just because indexes are rising. To follow in Buffett's footsteps, consider each stock individually, focus on the earnings strength and competitive advantages of the particular company, and once you buy at a reasonable price, hold on for the long term. Each of these moves should help you maximize your potential for a stock market victory over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，你如何利用巴菲特的智慧来提升自己的投资组合呢？主要信息是避免以任何价格购买股票或仅仅因为指数上涨而急于进入市场。要跟随巴菲特的脚步，考虑每只股票的个体情况，关注特定公司的盈利实力和竞争优势，一旦以合理的价格购买，就长期持有。每一项举动都应帮助你在股票市场中随着时间的推移最大化获胜的潜力。</p>
</div>

Does Warren Buffett Know Something Wall Street Doesn't?

- 巴菲特通过投资优质公司实现了近 60 年的市场超越。  
- 他最近减少了对苹果的持股，并关闭了 S&P 500 的相关基金。  
- 这些举动表明他预见到市场高估值将导致回调。  

沃伦·巴菲特是否知道一些华尔街所不知的事情？