<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.67%) 的股价今年已下跌 20%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) 则上涨了 5%。由于市场份额的损失，糟糕的财务业绩是主要的担忧来源，但首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的行为无疑也损害了品牌形象。</p>
<p>事实上，马斯克成功地惹恼了两个政党。他对唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持以及与政府效率部的合作让民主党人感到不满，而他对&#34;一项伟大的美好法案&#34;的批评以及与特朗普的随之而来的争执则使他在共和党中的人气暴跌。</p>
<p>不幸的是，特斯拉的坏消息还在不断涌现。由于核心汽车业务面临的逆风，华尔街分析师对未来 90 天的共识盈利预期已大幅下调。投资者需要了解以下信息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMyNTgvaW52ZXN0b3ItMTkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMyNTgvaW52ZXN0b3ItMTkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉正在失去市场份额，华尔街正在下调盈利预期</h2>
<p>由于对其老旧电动车型的需求急剧下降，特斯拉在过去五个季度中有三个季度的交付量出现下滑，尤其是在高利率和政治反弹的背景下。2025 年第一季度，特斯拉的汽车收入下降了 20%，非公认会计原则（non-GAAP）净收入下降了 40%。</p>
<p>管理层部分将责任归咎于最近推出的 Model Y Juniper 所需的工厂更新。然而，生产线已经得到更新，公司仍在失去市场份额。到 4 月，美国市场份额下降了 9 个百分点，欧洲市场份额下降了 8 个百分点，中国市场份额下降了 3 个百分点。</p>
<p>这些市场份额的损失尤其令人沮丧，因为许多汽车制造商今年对电动车的需求强劲。事实上，根据 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的数据，全球电动车销售在 4 月前飙升了 38%。</p>
<p>此外，尽管国内制造能力充足，特斯拉仍依赖进口汽车零部件，而这些零部件现在面临 25% 的关税。这一逆风，加上市场份额的损失，导致分析师下调了盈利预测。根据 LSEG 的数据，2025 年和 2026 年的共识预期在过去三个月中分别下降了 25% 和 16%。</p>
<p>大局来看：华尔街现在预计特斯拉的调整后盈利将在 2026 年前每年增长 14%。这一共识使得当前 145 倍的调整后盈利估值显得极其昂贵。这些数字表明，市盈率增长比率（PEG）超过 10。一般认为，超过 2 或 3 的倍数被视为高估。</p>
<h2>自动驾驶共享出行是特斯拉股东的曙光</h2>
<p>特斯拉最近推出了期待已久的自动驾驶共享出行服务，尽管规模非常有限。大约十几辆机器人出租车于 6 月 22 日在德克萨斯州奥斯丁上路，尽管目前乘车仅限于受邀者。路透社报道在首发期间出现了一些驾驶问题，但没有什么过于令人担忧的情况，当然也没有发生事故。</p>
<p>特斯拉已经开发其全自驾（FSD）平台超过十年，其方法与 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo（市场领导者）有所不同。Waymo 配备了一套昂贵的摄像头、雷达和激光雷达，而它们的机器人出租车使用高清地图进行导航。但特斯拉仅配备摄像头，完全依赖计算机视觉进行导航，这种方式更具成本效益且可扩展。</p>
<p>自动驾驶共享出行承诺将为特斯拉带来可观的机会。RBC 分析师汤姆·纳拉扬估计，该公司在 2040 年可能获得 1150 亿美元的机器人出租车收入，这可能相当于约 500 亿美元的利润。摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯估计，该公司在 2040 年可能获得 7000 亿美元的机器人出租车收入，这可能相当于约 1200 亿美元的利润。</p>
<p>无论如何，随着特斯拉的重点从低利润的电动车制造转向高利润的机器人出租车服务，未来特斯拉可能会更加盈利。事实上，埃隆·马斯克表示，特斯拉最终可能成为全球最有价值的公司，因为它将其 FSD 平台和机器人产品货币化。这无疑是对股东在这一令人失望的年份中的一线希望。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特斯拉的股票今年下跌了 20%，而标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 5%。糟糕的财务业绩和市场份额的损失让投资者感到担忧，华尔街将 2025 年和 2026 年的盈利预期分别下调了 25% 和 16%。尽管面临这些挑战，特斯拉推出的自动驾驶共享服务提供了潜在的曙光，分析师预计这一业务将带来可观的未来收入和利润。埃隆·马斯克相信，随着特斯拉将重点从电动车制造转向高利润的机器人出租车服务，特斯拉有可能成为全球最有价值的公司</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -0.67%) shares have tumbled 20% this year, while the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has jumped 5%. Poor financial results driven by market share losses are the main source of consternation, but CEO Elon Musk has arguably damaged the brand with his behavior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -0.67%) 的股价今年已下跌 20%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) 则上涨了 5%。由于市场份额的损失，糟糕的财务业绩是主要的担忧来源，但首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的行为无疑也损害了品牌形象。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, Musk has managed to upset both political parties. His support for President Donald Trump and work with the Department of Government Efficiency have irritated Democrats, while his criticism of the &#34;One, Big, Beautiful Bill&#34; and the subsequent feud with Trump have tanked his popularity with Republicans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，马斯克成功地惹恼了两个政党。他对唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持以及与政府效率部的合作让民主党人感到不满，而他对&#34;一项伟大的美好法案&#34;的批评以及与特朗普的随之而来的争执则使他在共和党中的人气暴跌。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, the bad news continues to roll in for Tesla. Consensus earnings estimates among Wall Street analysts have been revised sharply lower in the last 90 days due to headwinds surrounding the core automotive business. Here's what investors should know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，特斯拉的坏消息还在不断涌现。由于核心汽车业务面临的逆风，华尔街分析师对未来 90 天的共识盈利预期已大幅下调。投资者需要了解以下信息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMyNTgvaW52ZXN0b3ItMTkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823258%2Finvestor-19.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla is losing market share, and Wall Street is cutting earnings estimates</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉正在失去市场份额，华尔街正在下调盈利预期</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's deliveries have declined in three of the last five quarters as demand for its aging lineup of electric cars has nosedived amid high interest rates and political backlash. The decline accelerated in the first quarter of 2025, as Tesla's automotive revenue fell by 20%, and non-GAAP (non-generally accepted accounting principles) net income dropped by 40%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于对其老旧电动车型的需求急剧下降，特斯拉在过去五个季度中有三个季度的交付量出现下滑，尤其是在高利率和政治反弹的背景下。2025 年第一季度，特斯拉的汽车收入下降了 20%，非公认会计原则（non-GAAP）净收入下降了 40%。</p>
</div><p>Management laid the blame in part on factory updates required for the recently introduced Model Y Juniper. However, the production lines have been refreshed, and the company is still losing ground. Through April, U.S. market share dropped by 9 percentage points, European market share by 8 percentage points, and Chinese market share by 3 percentage points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层部分将责任归咎于最近推出的 Model Y Juniper 所需的工厂更新。然而，生产线已经得到更新，公司仍在失去市场份额。到 4 月，美国市场份额下降了 9 个百分点，欧洲市场份额下降了 8 个百分点，中国市场份额下降了 3 个百分点。</p>
</div><p>Those market share losses are particularly discouraging because many automakers have seen robust demand for electric cars this year. In fact, global electric car sales soared 38% through April, according to <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些市场份额的损失尤其令人沮丧，因为许多汽车制造商今年对电动车的需求强劲。事实上，根据 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 的数据，全球电动车销售在 4 月前飙升了 38%。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, despite domestic manufacturing capacity, Tesla relies on imported auto parts, which are now subject to a 25% tariff. That headwind, coupled with market share losses, has caused analysts to cut earnings forecasts. Consensus estimates for 2025 and 2026 have dropped by 25% and 16%, respectively, in the last three months, according to LSEG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，尽管国内制造能力充足，特斯拉仍依赖进口汽车零部件，而这些零部件现在面临 25% 的关税。这一逆风，加上市场份额的损失，导致分析师下调了盈利预测。根据 LSEG 的数据，2025 年和 2026 年的共识预期在过去三个月中分别下降了 25% 和 16%。</p>
</div><p>Here's the big picture: Wall Street now expects Tesla's adjusted earnings to increase at 14% annually through 2026. That consensus makes the current valuation of 145 times adjusted earnings look absurdly expensive. Those figures indicate a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of over 10. Multiples above 2 or 3 are generally considered overvalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大局来看：华尔街现在预计特斯拉的调整后盈利将在 2026 年前每年增长 14%。这一共识使得当前 145 倍的调整后盈利估值显得极其昂贵。这些数字表明，市盈率增长比率（PEG）超过 10。一般认为，超过 2 或 3 的倍数被视为高估。</p>
</div><h2>Autonomous ride-sharing is the silver lining for Tesla shareholders</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>自动驾驶共享出行是特斯拉股东的曙光</h2>
</div><p>Tesla recently launched its long-awaited autonomous ride-sharing service, albeit on a very limited scale. Roughly a dozen robotaxis hit the streets in Austin, Texas, on June 22, though rides are currently restricted to invitees. Reuters reported a handful of problematic driving incidents during the debut, but nothing overly worrisome and certainly no accidents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉最近推出了期待已久的自动驾驶共享出行服务，尽管规模非常有限。大约十几辆机器人出租车于 6 月 22 日在德克萨斯州奥斯丁上路，尽管目前乘车仅限于受邀者。路透社报道在首发期间出现了一些驾驶问题，但没有什么过于令人担忧的情况，当然也没有发生事故。</p>
</div><p>Tesla has been developing its full self-driving (FSD) platform for over a decade, and its approach differs from that of <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Waymo, the market leader. Waymos are outfitted with a costly array of cameras, radar, and lidar, and their robotaxis use high-definition maps to navigate. But Teslas are outfitted only with cameras and rely solely on computer vision to navigate, which is more cost-efficient and scalable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉已经开发其全自驾（FSD）平台超过十年，其方法与 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo（市场领导者）有所不同。Waymo 配备了一套昂贵的摄像头、雷达和激光雷达，而它们的机器人出租车使用高清地图进行导航。但特斯拉仅配备摄像头，完全依赖计算机视觉进行导航，这种方式更具成本效益且可扩展。</p>
</div><p>Autonomous ride-sharing promises to be a substantial opportunity for Tesla. RBC analyst Tom Narayan estimates that the company could earn $115 billion in robotaxi revenue in 2040, which he says could equate to about $50 billion in profits. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas estimates that the company could earn $700 billion in robotaxi revenue in 2040, which he says could equate to about $120 billion in profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自动驾驶共享出行承诺将为特斯拉带来可观的机会。RBC 分析师汤姆·纳拉扬估计，该公司在 2040 年可能获得 1150 亿美元的机器人出租车收入，这可能相当于约 500 亿美元的利润。摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯估计，该公司在 2040 年可能获得 7000 亿美元的机器人出租车收入，这可能相当于约 1200 亿美元的利润。</p>
</div><p>Either way, Tesla could be much more profitable in the future as its focus shifts from low-margin electric car manufacturing to high-margin robotaxi services. Indeed, Elon Musk says Tesla could eventually be the most valuable company in the world as it monetizes its FSD platform and robotics products. That is undoubtedly a silver lining for shareholders in what has been a disappointing year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，随着特斯拉的重点从低利润的电动车制造转向高利润的机器人出租车服务，未来特斯拉可能会更加盈利。事实上，埃隆·马斯克表示，特斯拉最终可能成为全球最有价值的公司，因为它将其 FSD 平台和机器人产品货币化。这无疑是对股东在这一令人失望的年份中的一线希望。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Investors Just Got Bad News From Wall Street, but There's a Silver Lining

- 特斯拉股价今年下跌 20%，而标普 500 指数上涨 5%。  
- 市场份额下降和 CEO 马斯克的行为导致财务结果不佳。  
- 分析师下调 2025 年和 2026 年收益预期，特斯拉未来或依赖自动驾驶出租车服务。

特斯拉股票投资者刚刚从华尔街收到坏消息，不过其中也有积极的一面