<p>自从 OpenAI 于 2022 年 11 月 30 日向全球发布 ChatGPT 以来，半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.74%）的股价已上涨 818%（截至 6 月 26 日）。换句话说，在过去两年半的时间里，Nvidia 的市值从 3450 亿美元飙升至 3.8 万亿美元，使其成为全球市值最大的公司。</p>
<p>一些投资者已经开始思考在人工智能（AI）革命中下一个突破性候选者会是谁，迹象指向另一家芯片股票——也许是 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>？<strong>Broadcom</strong> 或 <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> 呢？虽然这些公司都将从未来几年不断增长的 AI 基础设施支出中受益，但我认为还有另一家企业更有可能成为 “下一个 Nvidia”。</p>
<p>你看，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META 1.04%）在过去几年中一直在投资 AI，而它正在开发的技术可能会改变 Meta 的社交媒体帝国，并使其股票在竞争中获得更大的收益。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwNDMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMwMjgwMTY2OC01LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwNDMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMwMjgwMTY2OC01LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AI 如何改变 Meta 的生态系统？</h2>
<p>Meta 在两个核心领域运营：广告和 Reality Labs。</p>
<p>Reality Labs 代表了 Meta 的元宇宙雄心，包括虚拟现实互动、游戏和消费可穿戴设备。虽然 Reality Labs 将从 AI 中受益，但该部门仍处于亏损状态，更像是一个长期愿景，旨在将 Meta 转变为超越社交媒体平台的存在。</p>
<p>Meta 的主要收入和利润来源于广告——具体来说，是出现在公司社交媒体平台上的广告：Facebook、Instagram 和 WhatsApp。正是这个业务领域因 AI 的强大而面临颠覆的机会。</p>
<p>如果你曾经在 Meta 的任何社交媒体应用上滚动浏览， chances are 你已经被一系列广告轰炸。然而，这些广告中有多少实际上吸引了你？</p>
<p>尽管 Meta 的用户算法在过去已经相当复杂，但我猜想你仍然会收到一些与你兴趣不高的内容、商品和服务的帖子或通知。然而，通过利用 AI，Meta 可以改善与用户参与和消费者行为相关的数据工作负载。因此，公司可以改善其预测分析，更好地为用户提供更相关和定制的列表。</p>
<p>反过来，广告商可能会表现得有些不可预测，并展现出周期性的预算策略，他们将更倾向于在 Meta 的各个平台上分配资金。通过让广告商更紧密地依附于生态系统，Meta 有机会在竞争中施加定价权，并加速其收入增长。同时，改善用户的广告投放也可以从成本结构的角度帮助 Meta——因为点击和客户获取的单位经济学应该会随着时间的推移而降低。</p>
<p>收入加速增长和成本降低的结合可能会在长期内为 Meta 带来显著的利润率扩张。</p>
<h2>这对 Meta 的估值意味着什么？</h2>
<p>自 ChatGPT 发布以来，Meta 的股价已上涨超过 500%。我提到这一点是为了明确 Meta 在过去几年中也受益于乐观的 AI 交易。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/71cae0354f1cd3637ada71f1029468cc.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/71cae0354f1cd3637ada71f1029468cc.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>然而，除了在 2023 年上半年出现的显著波动外，Meta 的市盈率（P/E）倍数在过去 18 个月左右保持相对稳定。</p>
<p>这些动态暗示了几个想法。首先，Meta 的市盈率相对正常化可能意味着投资者认为公司的盈利状况正在成熟。此外，尽管 28 倍的市盈率并不算便宜，但这一估值显然是基于之前水平的显著折扣。</p>
<p>随着 AI 在其生态系统中越来越多地被整合，Meta 正在为盈利能力的显著提升做好准备。因此，Meta 的估值倍数在未来几年可能会扩大，因为公司的 “Nvidia 时刻” 即将到来。这表明公司从当前水平有显著的上行空间。</p>
<h2>现在 Meta 股票值得买吗？</h2>
<p>我认为在大型 AI 股票中，Meta 是一个毫无疑问的选择。上述的估值分析表明，尽管在 AI 革命中已经获得了丰厚的回报，Meta 股票仍然以合理的价格交易。此外，我认为公司仍处于 AI 发展的早期阶段，投资者尚未看到这些投资在长期内可能为 Meta 带来的全部潜力。</p>

META

<p>Meta Platforms 正在被视为 AI 领域中 Nvidia 的潜在接班人，正在进行大量的 AI 投资，这可能会增强其广告和现实实验室部门。通过利用 AI，Meta 旨在改善用户参与度和预测分析，这可能会导致广告收入的增加和成本的降低。尽管自 ChatGPT 发布以来，股价上涨了 500%，但 Meta 的估值仍然具有吸引力，暗示随着 AI 整合的推进，进一步增长的潜力。分析师将 Meta 视为大型 AI 股票类别中的强力买入</p>

<p>Since OpenAI released ChatGPT to the world on Nov. 30, 2022, shares of semiconductor powerhouse <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.74%) have risen by 818% (as of June 26). To put that another way, over the last two and a half years, Nvidia's market capitalization went from $345 billion to $3.8 trillion. making it the largest company in the world as measured by market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从 OpenAI 于 2022 年 11 月 30 日向全球发布 ChatGPT 以来，半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.74%）的股价已上涨 818%（截至 6 月 26 日）。换句话说，在过去两年半的时间里，Nvidia 的市值从 3450 亿美元飙升至 3.8 万亿美元，使其成为全球市值最大的公司。</p>
</div><p>Some investors are already thinking about who the next breakout candidate in the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution will be, with signs pointing to another chip stock -- perhaps <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>? What about <strong>Broadcom</strong> or <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>? While each of these companies stands to benefit from rising AI infrastructure spend over the next several years, I see another business that is better positioned as &#34;the next Nvidia.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投资者已经开始思考在人工智能（AI）革命中下一个突破性候选者会是谁，迹象指向另一家芯片股票——也许是 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>？<strong>Broadcom</strong> 或 <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> 呢？虽然这些公司都将从未来几年不断增长的 AI 基础设施支出中受益，但我认为还有另一家企业更有可能成为 “下一个 Nvidia”。</p>
</div><p>You see, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 1.04%) has been investing in AI over the last couple of years, and the technologies it's developing could transform Meta's social media empire and position the stock for superior gains over the competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你看，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META 1.04%）在过去几年中一直在投资 AI，而它正在开发的技术可能会改变 Meta 的社交媒体帝国，并使其股票在竞争中获得更大的收益。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMwNDMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMwMjgwMTY2OC01LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823043%2Fgettyimages-1302801668-5.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>How can AI transform Meta's ecosystem?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AI 如何改变 Meta 的生态系统？</h2>
</div><p>Meta operates across two core segments: advertising and Reality Labs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 在两个核心领域运营：广告和 Reality Labs。</p>
</div><p>Reality Labs represents Meta's metaverse ambitions, which include virtual reality interactions, gaming, and consumer wearables. While Reality Labs stands to benefit from AI, this segment of the company remains unprofitable and is more of a longer-term vision to turn Meta into something beyond just a social media platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Reality Labs 代表了 Meta 的元宇宙雄心，包括虚拟现实互动、游戏和消费可穿戴设备。虽然 Reality Labs 将从 AI 中受益，但该部门仍处于亏损状态，更像是一个长期愿景，旨在将 Meta 转变为超越社交媒体平台的存在。</p>
</div><p>The main source of revenue and profits for Meta comes from advertising -- specifically, ads that appear across the company's social media platforms: Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. It's this area of the business that is ripe for disruption thanks to the power of AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 的主要收入和利润来源于广告——具体来说，是出现在公司社交媒体平台上的广告：Facebook、Instagram 和 WhatsApp。正是这个业务领域因 AI 的强大而面临颠覆的机会。</p>
</div><p>If you have ever scrolled on any of Meta's social media apps, chances are that you've been bombarded with a series of advertisements. However, how many of those ads actually appealed to you?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你曾经在 Meta 的任何社交媒体应用上滚动浏览， chances are 你已经被一系列广告轰炸。然而，这些广告中有多少实际上吸引了你？</p>
</div><p>As sophisticated as Meta's user algorithms have been in the past, my hunch is that you still receive postings or notifications for content, goods, and services that aren't of high interest to you. By leveraging AI, however, Meta can improve its data workloads as it relates to user engagement and consumer behaviors. As a result, the company can improve its predictive analytics to better position more relevant and customized listings for its users.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Meta 的用户算法在过去已经相当复杂，但我猜想你仍然会收到一些与你兴趣不高的内容、商品和服务的帖子或通知。然而，通过利用 AI，Meta 可以改善与用户参与和消费者行为相关的数据工作负载。因此，公司可以改善其预测分析，更好地为用户提供更相关和定制的列表。</p>
</div><p>In turn, advertisers, which can be somewhat unpredictable and exhibit cyclical budgeting strategies, will be more inclined to allocate funds across Meta's various platforms. By keeping advertisers sticky to the ecosystem, Meta has an opportunity to employ pricing power over the competition and accelerate its revenue growth. At the same time, improving ad feeds for its users can also help Meta from a cost structure perspective -- as the unit economics on clicks and customer acquisition should become lower over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>反过来，广告商可能会表现得有些不可预测，并展现出周期性的预算策略，他们将更倾向于在 Meta 的各个平台上分配资金。通过让广告商更紧密地依附于生态系统，Meta 有机会在竞争中施加定价权，并加速其收入增长。同时，改善用户的广告投放也可以从成本结构的角度帮助 Meta——因为点击和客户获取的单位经济学应该会随着时间的推移而降低。</p>
</div><p>The combination of accelerating revenue and lower costs could result in meaningful profit margin expansion for Meta in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收入加速增长和成本降低的结合可能会在长期内为 Meta 带来显著的利润率扩张。</p>
</div><h2>What could this mean for Meta's valuation?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对 Meta 的估值意味着什么？</h2>
</div><p>Since ChatGPT's release, the share prices of Meta have gained more than 500%. I bring this up to make it clear that Meta has also benefited from the bullish AI trade over the last couple of years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 ChatGPT 发布以来，Meta 的股价已上涨超过 500%。我提到这一点是为了明确 Meta 在过去几年中也受益于乐观的 AI 交易。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/71cae0354f1cd3637ada71f1029468cc.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/71cae0354f1cd3637ada71f1029468cc.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>However, except for a notable spike during the first half of 2023, Meta's price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has remained fairly consistent over the last 18 months or so.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，除了在 2023 年上半年出现的显著波动外，Meta 的市盈率（P/E）倍数在过去 18 个月左右保持相对稳定。</p>
</div><p>These dynamics suggest a couple of ideas. First, the relative normalization in Meta's P/E could imply that investors think the company's earnings profile is maturing. In addition, while a P/E of 28 isn't exactly dirt cheap, this valuation is clearly a steep discount based on prior levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些动态暗示了几个想法。首先，Meta 的市盈率相对正常化可能意味着投资者认为公司的盈利状况正在成熟。此外，尽管 28 倍的市盈率并不算便宜，但这一估值显然是基于之前水平的显著折扣。</p>
</div><p>Meta is positioning itself for a meaningful boost in profitability as AI becomes more integrated throughout its ecosystem. For this reason, Meta's valuation multiples could expand in the coming years as the company's &#34;Nvidia moment&#34; comes into focus. That suggests the company has meaningful upside from current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 AI 在其生态系统中越来越多地被整合，Meta 正在为盈利能力的显著提升做好准备。因此，Meta 的估值倍数在未来几年可能会扩大，因为公司的 “Nvidia 时刻” 即将到来。这表明公司从当前水平有显著的上行空间。</p>
</div><h2>Is Meta stock a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在 Meta 股票值得买吗？</h2>
</div><p>I think Meta is a no-brainer when it comes to megacap AI stocks. The valuation analysis explored above suggests that Meta stock still trades at a reasonable price point despite an already generous return throughout the AI revolution. Moreover, I think the company is still in the early stages of its AI development, and investors have yet to see the full potential these investments could yield for Meta in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为在大型 AI 股票中，Meta 是一个毫无疑问的选择。上述的估值分析表明，尽管在 AI 革命中已经获得了丰厚的回报，Meta 股票仍然以合理的价格交易。此外，我认为公司仍处于 AI 发展的早期阶段，投资者尚未看到这些投资在长期内可能为 Meta 带来的全部潜力。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Could Be the Next Nvidia -- and It's Not What You Think

- 自 ChatGPT 发布以来，Nvidia 股价上涨 818%，市值达 3.8 万亿美元。  
- Meta 正在投资 AI，可能会提升广告业务的相关性和盈利能力。  
- Meta 股价已上涨 500%，未来有望实现更高的盈利增长。  

预测：这只人工智能（AI）股票可能成为下一个英伟达——但它并不是你所想的那只股票