<p>Wayne Cole 对欧洲和全球市场的前景进行展望。</p><p>当美国和加拿大之间的贸易谈判恢复的消息传出时，亚洲市场已经开始了风险偏好的新一周，加拿大总理卡尼同意取消特朗普要求的数字税。这项努力的新截止日期是 7 月 21 日，延长了特朗普原定的 7 月 9 日日期。</p><p>后者似乎也将延长其他谈判，财政部长贝森特上周暗示，他们可能会在 9 月 1 日的劳动节假期之前完成。</p><p>华尔街期货上涨约 0.4%，创下历史新高，投资者在新季度涌入大型股，而欧洲和德国的股票期货也上涨约 0.3%。大多数亚洲市场也处于上涨状态，受益于中东停火的持续以及油价的进一步下跌。</p><p>投资者对一项正在参议院缓慢推进的巨大美国减税和支出法案的进展保持警惕，迹象表明它可能无法在特朗普偏好的 7 月 4 日截止日期之前通过。为了拖延时间，民主党人让书记员逐行朗读这份 940 页的法案，可能使他们成为唯一知道法案内容的人。</p><p>国会预算办公室估计，该法案将在十年内使国家债务增加 3.3 万亿美元，这进一步考验了外国对美国国债的需求，并对美国例外主义的事业造成了又一次打击。</p><p>这一影响在美元上表现得尤为明显，上周欧元上涨了 1.7%。资本经济学的分析师詹姆斯·瑞利指出，美元在今年的这一阶段下跌幅度超过了自 1973 年美国转向自由浮动汇率以来的任何一年。</p><p>这种下滑必然迫使外国投资者对其美元敞口进行对冲，这在货币的熊市循环中进一步加剧了抛售。</p><p>投资者对美联储政策放松的预期也没有得到改善，预计今年剩余时间将降息 65 个基点。尽管 7 月的降息仍然是一个小概率事件，但如果周四的就业报告出现意外下滑，这种情况可能会改变。特别是，如果失业率上升超过 4.3%，将达到自 2021 年底以来未见的水平，肯定会引起美联储的警觉。</p><p>可能影响周一市场的关键发展：</p><ul><li>欧洲中央银行论坛在葡萄牙辛特拉开始</li><li>德国、意大利的消费者物价指数数据</li><li>美联储的博斯蒂克和古尔斯比发言</li></ul><p>自由下跌的美元</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/a1605a93abe4fbfefc482fe62a035b33?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="962" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/a1605a93abe4fbfefc482fe62a035b33"/></figure><p>美国非农就业人数增长预计在 6 月放缓</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/2bb3b0d46123616108b66e647325e70f?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="966" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/2bb3b0d46123616108b66e647325e70f"/></figure><p>（编辑：Jacqueline Wong）</p>

<p>美国与加拿大的贸易谈判重新启动，提振了市场情绪。华尔街期货上涨 0.4%，欧洲股市上涨 0.3%。投资者对可能使国家债务增加 3.3 万亿美元的美国减税法案持谨慎态度。美元承压，欧元上周上涨 1.7%。对美联储政策放松的预期增加，7 月可能的行动取决于即将发布的就业数据。市场的主要影响因素包括欧洲央行论坛和消费者物价指数数据发布</p>

<p>A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wayne Cole 对欧洲和全球市场的前景进行展望。</p>
</div><p>It was already a risk-on start to the week in Asia when news broke trade talks between the United States and Canada were back on after Prime Minister Carney agreed to rescind a digital tax as demanded by President Trump. The new deadline for this effort is July 21, extending Trump’s original July 9 date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当美国和加拿大之间的贸易谈判恢复的消息传出时，亚洲市场已经开始了风险偏好的新一周，加拿大总理卡尼同意取消特朗普要求的数字税。这项努力的新截止日期是 7 月 21 日，延长了特朗普原定的 7 月 9 日日期。</p>
</div><p>The latter looks like being extended for other talks as well, with Treasury Secretary Bessent last week suggesting they might be done by the September 1 Labor Day holiday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>后者似乎也将延长其他谈判，财政部长贝森特上周暗示，他们可能会在 9 月 1 日的劳动节假期之前完成。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street futures are up around 0.4% at record highs as investors pile into mega caps for the new quarter, while European and German stock futures firmed around 0.3%. Most Asian markets are also in the black, helped by a further decline in oil prices as the Mideast ceasefire holds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街期货上涨约 0.4%，创下历史新高，投资者在新季度涌入大型股，而欧洲和德国的股票期货也上涨约 0.3%。大多数亚洲市场也处于上涨状态，受益于中东停火的持续以及油价的进一步下跌。</p>
</div><p>Investors are keeping a wary eye on the progress of a huge U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by Trump’s preferred July 4 deadline. Stalling for time, the Democrats are making clerks read out every line in the 940-page bill, likely making them the only ones who know what’s in it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对一项正在参议院缓慢推进的巨大美国减税和支出法案的进展保持警惕，迹象表明它可能无法在特朗普偏好的 7 月 4 日截止日期之前通过。为了拖延时间，民主党人让书记员逐行朗读这份 940 页的法案，可能使他们成为唯一知道法案内容的人。</p>
</div><p>The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will add $3.3 trillion to the nation’s debt over a decade, a further test of foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries and another blow to the cause of U.S. exceptionalism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国会预算办公室估计，该法案将在十年内使国家债务增加 3.3 万亿美元，这进一步考验了外国对美国国债的需求，并对美国例外主义的事业造成了又一次打击。</p>
</div><p>The impact has been most evident in the dollar, with the euro clocking gains of 1.7% last week. James Reilly, an analyst at Capital Economics, noted the dollar had fallen by more at this stage in the year than in any previous year since the U.S. moved to a free-floating exchange rate in 1973.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一影响在美元上表现得尤为明显，上周欧元上涨了 1.7%。资本经济学的分析师詹姆斯·瑞利指出，美元在今年的这一阶段下跌幅度超过了自 1973 年美国转向自由浮动汇率以来的任何一年。</p>
</div><p>That slide must be pressuring foreign investors to hedge their dollar exposure, which creates yet more selling in a bearish cycle for the currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种下滑必然迫使外国投资者对其美元敞口进行对冲，这在货币的熊市循环中进一步加剧了抛售。</p>
</div><p>Neither has it been helped by investors ratcheting up expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing to 65 basis points for the rest of the year. A July move is still an outside chance, though that might change if the payrolls report on Thursday springs a downside surprise. In particular, a rise in the jobless rate above 4.3% would take it to levels not seen since late 2021 and would surely ring alarm bells at the Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对美联储政策放松的预期也没有得到改善，预计今年剩余时间将降息 65 个基点。尽管 7 月的降息仍然是一个小概率事件，但如果周四的就业报告出现意外下滑，这种情况可能会改变。特别是，如果失业率上升超过 4.3%，将达到自 2021 年底以来未见的水平，肯定会引起美联储的警觉。</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能影响周一市场的关键发展：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, begins</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>欧洲中央银行论坛在葡萄牙辛特拉开始</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>German, Italian CPI data</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>德国、意大利的消费者物价指数数据</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Fed’s Bostic and Goolsbee speak</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美联储的博斯蒂克和古尔斯比发言</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Free-falling dollar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自由下跌的美元</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3I2xY5D" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3I2xY5D"/></p>
<p>U.S. non-farm payrolls growth set to slow in June</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国非农就业人数增长预计在 6 月放缓</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4lpDf5I" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4lpDf5I"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（编辑：Jacqueline Wong）</p>
</div>

Risk flows as trade talks unclog

- 美国与加拿大的贸易谈判重启，新的截止日期为 7 月 21 日。  
- 投资者关注美国税收削减法案，预计将增加 3.3 万亿美元债务。  
- 美元持续下跌，市场对美联储政策宽松预期上升。  

贸易谈判解堵后风险流动