<p>在 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 争夺全球市值最大公司的地位时，另一位竞争者正在暗中潜伏：<strong>Amazon</strong>（AMZN 2.66%）。</p>
<p>Amazon 是一个黑马，有潜力在几年内成为全球最大公司，因为它有多个部门以令人印象深刻的速度增长，并且产生了卓越的利润。但它是否有足够的动力在 2030 年前超越当前的领导者？让我们来看看。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI2ODUvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1sYXB0b3AtYXQtYS1kZXNrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI2ODUvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1sYXB0b3AtYXQtYS1kZXNrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Amazon 的增长来自两个业务部门</h2>
<p>Amazon 不仅仅是你在购物时使用的电子商务平台。在线销售产品以及将其送到你家门口涉及很多方面，但这些方面并没有让我对这只股票感到兴奋。</p>
<p>相反，我最感兴趣的是公司的广告和云计算部门。五年前，它的广告业务几乎不存在。现在，它已经成长为第四大部门，仅次于在线商店、第三方卖家服务和亚马逊网络服务（AWS）。它也是增长最快的部门，第一季度的收入增长了 18%。</p>
<p>公司拥有一些最有价值的消费者数据，比如关于购物习惯的直接信息。这使得它的广告数据极具威力，这也是管理层明智地将其货币化的原因。</p>
<p>这个部门如此重要的另一个原因是其提高的利润率。公司并没有细分各个业务的利润率，广告业务被归入亚马逊的北美和国际商业部门。但通过研究以广告为重点的企业，如 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，可以清楚地看出，这个部门的运营利润率可能非常高。</p>
<p>这对亚马逊的未来至关重要，因为高利润率部门的快速增长将使利润迅速增加。</p>
<p>同样的动态也发生在 AWS 的云计算部门，该部门受益于两个主要趋势：从本地解决方案向基于云的解决方案的普遍迁移，以及对 AI 工作负载的日益采用。</p>
<p>这两个趋势为 AWS 创造了巨大的增长催化剂，这也是它在第一季度实现 17% 稳健增长的原因。幸运的是，对于投资者来说，亚马逊会细分其利润率。在第一季度，AWS 的运营利润率达到了令人印象深刻的 39%。尽管它占整体收入的 19%，但却贡献了公司总运营利润的 63%。</p>
<p>只要 AWS 继续实现快速增长，亚马逊的利润将比整体收入增长得更快，这也是我们在过去几年中看到的股票表现，尽管这一趋势开始有所放缓。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b033411fd3c42b9ad2d75970a554ff07.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b033411fd3c42b9ad2d75970a554ff07.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 运营收入（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts；同比 = 年同比。</p>
<p>尽管其运营利润增长不如以前那么迅速，但仍在提供健康的增长。但这是否足以在 2030 年前将其推向顶峰？</p>
<h2>Amazon 将很难追赶 Nvidia</h2>
<p>在接下来的五年里，Amazon 不太可能看到与当前情况不同的快速增长催化剂，因此高个位数的收入增长和约 20% 的运营利润增长是投资者合理的预期。</p>
<p>而且该股票的估值与 Microsoft 和 Nvidia 大致相同，因此在未来几年内，它也没有理由看到其市盈率的提升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7ab6a83df73941c356e89d40d4677791.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7ab6a83df73941c356e89d40d4677791.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts；市盈率 = 市价与收益之比。</p>
<p>因此，我认为 Amazon 的 20% 左右的运营利润增长将无法使其超越 Nvidia，后者的增长速度显著更快。然而，这可能使 Amazon 赶上 Microsoft，后者的增长在低双位数。</p>
<p>无论如何，我相信 Amazon 是一个优秀的投资，它可能在未来五年内提供超越市场的回报，得益于其稳健的利润增长。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊正在成为微软和英伟达在 2030 年成为市值最大公司的潜在竞争者。其增长主要得益于广告和云计算部门的快速扩张，这些部门对利润的贡献显著。尽管亚马逊的营业利润增长预计将达到约 20%，但可能难以超越英伟达更快的增长速度，但有可能赶上微软。总体而言，亚马逊被视为一个强劲的投资机会，未来几年有望实现超越市场的回报</p>

<p>While <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong> are duking it out to see which company will maintain its position as the largest in the world by market cap, another competitor is lurking in the background: <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 2.66%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 争夺全球市值最大公司的地位时，另一位竞争者正在暗中潜伏：<strong>Amazon</strong>（AMZN 2.66%）。</p>
</div><p>Amazon is a dark horse pick to become the largest company in the world in a few years, because it has several divisions that are growing at an impressive rate while producing stellar profits. But does it have enough juice to overtake the current leaders by 2030? Let's take a look.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Amazon 是一个黑马，有潜力在几年内成为全球最大公司，因为它有多个部门以令人印象深刻的速度增长，并且产生了卓越的利润。但它是否有足够的动力在 2030 年前超越当前的领导者？让我们来看看。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI2ODUvcGVyc29uLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1sYXB0b3AtYXQtYS1kZXNrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822685%2Fperson-looking-at-a-laptop-at-a-desk.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's growth comes from two business units</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Amazon 的增长来自两个业务部门</h2>
</div><p>Amazon is more than just the e-commerce platform you interact with when shopping. There is a lot that goes into selling products online, as well as delivering them to your doorstep, but none of those aspects excite me about the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Amazon 不仅仅是你在购物时使用的电子商务平台。在线销售产品以及将其送到你家门口涉及很多方面，但这些方面并没有让我对这只股票感到兴奋。</p>
</div><p>Instead, I'm most interested in the company's advertising and cloud computing segments. Its advertising wing was nearly nonexistent five years ago. Now, it has grown into its fourth-largest segment, behind online stores, third-party seller services, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It's also the fastest-growing segment, with revenue rising 18% in the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，我最感兴趣的是公司的广告和云计算部门。五年前，它的广告业务几乎不存在。现在，它已经成长为第四大部门，仅次于在线商店、第三方卖家服务和亚马逊网络服务（AWS）。它也是增长最快的部门，第一季度的收入增长了 18%。</p>
</div><p>The company has some of the most valuable consumer data available, like direct information about shopping habits. This makes its ad data incredibly powerful, which is why management was smart to monetize it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司拥有一些最有价值的消费者数据，比如关于购物习惯的直接信息。这使得它的广告数据极具威力，这也是管理层明智地将其货币化的原因。</p>
</div><p>Another reason this segment is so important is its increased margins. The company doesn't break down the margins of its individual operations, and advertising gets grouped into Amazon's North American and International commerce segments. But from examining advertising-focused businesses like <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, it's clear that this division likely has an incredibly high operating margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个部门如此重要的另一个原因是其提高的利润率。公司并没有细分各个业务的利润率，广告业务被归入亚马逊的北美和国际商业部门。但通过研究以广告为重点的企业，如 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，可以清楚地看出，这个部门的运营利润率可能非常高。</p>
</div><p>This is crucial for Amazon's future because the faster growth of higher-margin segments will allow profits to increase rapidly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对亚马逊的未来至关重要，因为高利润率部门的快速增长将使利润迅速增加。</p>
</div><p>This same dynamic is occurring in AWS' cloud computing segment, which is benefiting from two major trends: a general migration from on-premises to cloud-based solutions and the increasing adoption of AI workloads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样的动态也发生在 AWS 的云计算部门，该部门受益于两个主要趋势：从本地解决方案向基于云的解决方案的普遍迁移，以及对 AI 工作负载的日益采用。</p>
</div><p>Both of these create huge growth catalysts for AWS and are why it produced solid 17% growth in the first quarter. Fortunately for investors, Amazon breaks out its margins. In the first quarter, AWS' operating margin was an impressive 39%. Although it accounted for 19% of overall revenue, it contributed 63% of the company's total operating profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两个趋势为 AWS 创造了巨大的增长催化剂，这也是它在第一季度实现 17% 稳健增长的原因。幸运的是，对于投资者来说，亚马逊会细分其利润率。在第一季度，AWS 的运营利润率达到了令人印象深刻的 39%。尽管它占整体收入的 19%，但却贡献了公司总运营利润的 63%。</p>
</div><p>As long as AWS continues to deliver rapid growth, Amazon's profits will rise much faster than its overall revenue, which is what we've seen play out over the past few years with the stock, although that trend is starting to slow somewhat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要 AWS 继续实现快速增长，亚马逊的利润将比整体收入增长得更快，这也是我们在过去几年中看到的股票表现，尽管这一趋势开始有所放缓。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b033411fd3c42b9ad2d75970a554ff07.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b033411fd3c42b9ad2d75970a554ff07.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts; YoY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 运营收入（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts；同比 = 年同比。</p>
</div><p>Although its operating profit growth isn't as rapid as it once was, it's still delivering a healthy amount of growth. But is that enough to propel it to the top spot by 2030?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管其运营利润增长不如以前那么迅速，但仍在提供健康的增长。但这是否足以在 2030 年前将其推向顶峰？</p>
</div><h2>Amazon will have a tough time catching Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Amazon 将很难追赶 Nvidia</h2>
</div><p>It's unlikely that Amazon will see a rapid growth catalyst over the next five years different from what's currently happening, so the high-single-digit revenue growth and 20% or so increase in operating profit are reasonable expectations for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在接下来的五年里，Amazon 不太可能看到与当前情况不同的快速增长催化剂，因此高个位数的收入增长和约 20% 的运营利润增长是投资者合理的预期。</p>
</div><p>And the stock is valued around the same level as Microsoft and Nvidia, so it doesn't have an argument for seeing its price-to-forward-earnings multiple increase over the next few years, either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且该股票的估值与 Microsoft 和 Nvidia 大致相同，因此在未来几年内，它也没有理由看到其市盈率的提升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7ab6a83df73941c356e89d40d4677791.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7ab6a83df73941c356e89d40d4677791.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts; PE = price to earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts；市盈率 = 市价与收益之比。</p>
</div><p>As a result, I don't think Amazon's 20% or so operating profit growth will enable it to surpass Nvidia, which is rising at a significantly faster rate. However, it could allow Amazon to catch Microsoft, which is growing by the low double digits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我认为 Amazon 的 20% 左右的运营利润增长将无法使其超越 Nvidia，后者的增长速度显著更快。然而，这可能使 Amazon 赶上 Microsoft，后者的增长在低双位数。</p>
</div><p>Regardless, I believe Amazon is an excellent investment, and it will likely deliver market-beating returns over the next five years, driven by its solid profit growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，我相信 Amazon 是一个优秀的投资，它可能在未来五年内提供超越市场的回报，得益于其稳健的利润增长。</p>
</div>

Will This "Magnificent Seven" Stock Overtake Microsoft and Nvidia As the Largest Company in the World By 2030?

- 亚马逊在广告和云计算领域实现快速增长，成为潜在的市场领导者。  
- 广告部门已成为亚马逊第四大业务，第一季度收入增长 18%。  
- AWS 云计算部门第一季度运营利润率达 39%，推动整体利润快速增长。  

这只被称为 “七大奇迹” 的股票能否在 2030 年超越微软和英伟达，成为全球最大的公司？