<p>关税对盈利和通胀的影响受到关注</p><p>预计美联储将降息，但在特朗普的压力下时机不确定</p><p>标普 500 市盈率偏高，盈利被视为支持估值的关键</p><p>作者：刘易斯·克劳斯科普夫</p><p>纽约，7 月 1 日（路透社）- 美国股市在今年上半年经历了过山车般的波动，创下历史新高，但一系列因素可能会在 2025 年剩余时间内使股票失去支撑。基准的标普 500 指数（.SPX）迄今上涨超过 5%，在经历了因特朗普总统的 “解放日” 关税计划引发的经济恐慌后的 4 月暴跌后反弹。以下是美国股票投资者在下半年开始时面临的一些关键问题。</p><p>关税会造成影响，还是只是吠叫？尽管对特朗普关税的最坏担忧有所缓解，但在美国寻求在未来几周达成贸易协议的过程中，短期内可能会出现更多波动。如果 7 月 9 日的关税截止日期能够维持，这可能成为股票的早期下半年考验。</p><p>即使一些最严厉的关税被撤销，今年的有效关税仍可能推高通胀，削弱公司利润和消费者支出。高盛分析师上周表示，基于已宣布政策的有效美国关税率已从年初的 3% 上升至 13%。</p><p>在强劲的第一季度利润之后，美国企业盈利将成为评估华尔街是否正确考虑关税影响的关键指标。第二季度的财报将在本月晚些时候开始，预计标普 500 指数在该期间的盈利将增长 5.9%，根据 LSEG IBES 的数据。</p><h3 id="0px91inzn">美联储何时降息？</h3><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔指出，关税将推高通胀的担忧是中央银行推迟降息的原因之一。尽管如此，联邦基金期货显示，预计到今年年底将有近三次降息，首次降息可能在 9 月，LSEG 数据显示。美联储和鲍威尔承受着特朗普的降息压力，特朗普也曾考虑在鲍威尔任期于 2026 年 5 月到期之前选择替代者。这一举动可能会增加对更多降息的预期，但也可能给市场带来担忧，担心美联储保持独立性。</p><p>美国经济的疲软也可能促使中央银行降息，而劳动力市场的一些软化迹象意味着即将发布的数据对资产价格构成考验。最新的月度就业报告将于周四发布。</p><h3 id="6ic93b0q">大型科技公司是否重新掌控市场？</h3><p>在年初经历了艰难的开局后，科技股和成长股重新掌握了市场的主导权。科技股（.SPLRCT）是第二季度表现最好的标普 500 行业，而 “七大巨头” 股票（MAGS.Z）自市场 4 月低点以来大幅上涨。这一表现重新引发了对少数大型股票推动市场的担忧，包括这种上涨可能在表面下并不强劲。许多投资者仍然希望随着年末的临近，更多股票能够支持市场的上涨。</p><p>标普 500 的等权重版本更好地反映了该指数中平均股票的表现，2025 年上涨近 4%。</p><p>“我怀疑如果市场要继续上涨，你需要看到更广泛的上涨，” 西北互助财富管理公司的首席投资官布伦特·舒特说。</p><p>股票的估值能有多高？随着市场的反弹，股票估值也随之上升。在周五，当标普 500 指数创下四个月来的首次历史新高时，该指数的前瞻市盈率达到了 22.2。这是自 2 月份以来的最高水平，远高于其长期平均水平 15.8。</p><p>随着投资者寻求对股票进行估值，他们越来越关注未来的盈利前景，包括 2026 年利润是否会显著改善。预计标普 500 的盈利今年将增长 8.5%，明年将增长 14%。另一个因素是国债收益率，当其上升时往往会对股票估值施加压力。尽管基准收益率自今年早些时候以来有所回落，但如果国会通过的美国财政法案引发对赤字扩大担忧，10 年期收益率的任何飙升都可能会动摇股票投资者。</p><p>‘美国例外主义’ 的质疑会削弱股票吗？关于美国资产吸引力的问题在 2025 年成为全球主题，这一主题是由特朗普在 4 月发布的惊人关税公告引发的，导致对美国政策的不确定性。最近，美国美元兑一篮子主要货币的汇率达到了三年来的最低水平。</p><p>在经历了长期的主导地位后，美国股票在今年迄今为止也落后于国际同行。非美国股票总体上仍相对便宜，这引发了对哪一组股票将在 2025 年剩余时间内胜出的疑问。</p><p>地缘政治是否会重新成为风险？在最近的以色列 - 伊朗冲突期间，股票短暂回落，但分析师警惕中东敌对行动的恢复可能会导致新的波动。如果石油供应受到限制，导致原油价格飙升至每桶 100 美元以上，情况尤其如此。</p><p>过去 30 年中，地缘政治动荡的激增很少对美国股票回报构成阻力，巴克莱策略师在最近的一份报告中表示。但他们补充说，“地缘政治风险的突发确实会引发高波动性，风险资产在当前冲突升级的情况下将特别脆弱。”</p><p>图表：科技股强势回归</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e26e2da6c742f55346e62edfc183d05c?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="890" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e26e2da6c742f55346e62edfc183d05c"/></figure><p>图表：美国股票估值上升</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f4713797fa56a63fb5514fb34a385345?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="872" height="652" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f4713797fa56a63fb5514fb34a385345"/></figure><p>图表：2025 年美国股票落后于国际股票</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d6093d66a898700f55de9857da26bbe6?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="812" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d6093d66a898700f55de9857da26bbe6"/></figure><p>图表：美国股票与收益率的对比</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/cb43489cd2e7f93f9e39b418f36b0c38?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="872" height="654" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/cb43489cd2e7f93f9e39b418f36b0c38"/></figure>

标普 500 指数

<p>随着 2025 年下半年的开始，美国股市投资者面临着关于关税、美联储降息和企业盈利的关键问题。标准普尔 500 指数今年上涨超过 5%，但潜在的关税影响和通胀担忧依然存在。美联储主席鲍威尔在降息问题上的立场在特朗普的压力下仍不确定。科技股已恢复强劲，但市场广度令人担忧。估值处于高位，标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率为 22.2，这引发了对未来盈利和国债收益率上升影响的质疑。此外，对美国资产吸引力的怀疑可能会影响股票市场</p>

<p>Impact of tariffs on earnings, inflation in focus</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税对盈利和通胀的影响受到关注</p>
</div><p>Fed rate cuts expected but timing uncertain amid pressure by Trump</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计美联储将降息，但在特朗普的压力下时机不确定</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P 500 P/E ratio elevated, earnings seen as key to supporting valuations</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标普 500 市盈率偏高，盈利被视为支持估值的关键</p>
</div><p>By Lewis Krauskopf</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：刘易斯·克劳斯科普夫</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. stock market completed a roller-coaster first half of the year at record-high levels but a host of factors could knock equities off their perch over the rest of 2025. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) is up over 5% on the year so far, rebounding from an April plunge after an economic scare stemming from President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff plan. Here are some of the key questions facing U.S. stock investors at the start of the second half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，7 月 1 日（路透社）- 美国股市在今年上半年经历了过山车般的波动，创下历史新高，但一系列因素可能会在 2025 年剩余时间内使股票失去支撑。基准的标普 500 指数（.SPX）迄今上涨超过 5%，在经历了因特朗普总统的 “解放日” 关税计划引发的经济恐慌后的 4 月暴跌后反弹。以下是美国股票投资者在下半年开始时面临的一些关键问题。</p>
</div><p>WILL TARIFFS BITE, OR JUST BARK? While worst-case fears about Trump’s tariffs have eased, more near-term volatility could be in store as the U.S. seeks to hammer out trade agreements in the coming weeks. A July 9 deadline on many tariffs, if it holds, could be an early second-half test for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税会造成影响，还是只是吠叫？尽管对特朗普关税的最坏担忧有所缓解，但在美国寻求在未来几周达成贸易协议的过程中，短期内可能会出现更多波动。如果 7 月 9 日的关税截止日期能够维持，这可能成为股票的早期下半年考验。</p>
</div><p>Even if some of the harshest levies are rolled back, higher effective tariffs this year still could drive up inflation and cut into company profits and consumer spending. The effective U.S. tariff rate based on announced policies has climbed to 13% from 3% at the start of the year, Goldman Sachs analysts said last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使一些最严厉的关税被撤销，今年的有效关税仍可能推高通胀，削弱公司利润和消费者支出。高盛分析师上周表示，基于已宣布政策的有效美国关税率已从年初的 3% 上升至 13%。</p>
</div><p>After strong first-quarter profits, U.S. corporate earnings will be a critical gauge to assess whether Wall Street has properly factored in the fallout from tariffs. Second-quarter reports begin later this month, with S&amp;P 500 earnings in the period expected to have increased 5.9%, according to LSEG IBES.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在强劲的第一季度利润之后，美国企业盈利将成为评估华尔街是否正确考虑关税影响的关键指标。第二季度的财报将在本月晚些时候开始，预计标普 500 指数在该期间的盈利将增长 5.9%，根据 LSEG IBES 的数据。</p>
</div><h3>WHEN WILL THE FED CUT RATES?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美联储何时降息？</h3>
</div><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell has pointed to concerns that tariffs will push up inflation as a reason for the central bank to hold off on interest rate cuts. Still, fed fund futures indicate nearly three cuts expected by the end of this year, with the first likely in September, LSEG data showed. The Fed and Powell have endured a barrage of pressure from Trump to cut rates and the president has mused about picking a replacement for Powell soon, well ahead of the expiration of the chair’s term in May 2026. That move could increase expectations for more cuts but also bring turbulence to markets concerned about the Fed remaining independent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔指出，关税将推高通胀的担忧是中央银行推迟降息的原因之一。尽管如此，联邦基金期货显示，预计到今年年底将有近三次降息，首次降息可能在 9 月，LSEG 数据显示。美联储和鲍威尔承受着特朗普的降息压力，特朗普也曾考虑在鲍威尔任期于 2026 年 5 月到期之前选择替代者。这一举动可能会增加对更多降息的预期，但也可能给市场带来担忧，担心美联储保持独立性。</p>
</div><p>A weakening U.S. economy could also prompt the central bank to ease rates, and some signs of softening in the labor market mean that incoming data poses a test for asset prices. The latest monthly employment report is due on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国经济的疲软也可能促使中央银行降息，而劳动力市场的一些软化迹象意味着即将发布的数据对资产价格构成考验。最新的月度就业报告将于周四发布。</p>
</div><h3>IS BIG TECH BACK IN CHARGE?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>大型科技公司是否重新掌控市场？</h3>
</div><p>After a rough start to the year, technology and growth shares have retaken the reins of the market. Tech (.SPLRCT) was the best-performing S&amp;P 500 sector in the second quarter, while the “Magnificent Seven” megacap stocks overall (MAGS.Z) have surged since the market’s April lows. The performance has revived concerns about a relatively small number of large stocks propelling the market, including that the advance may not be as strong beneath the surface. Many investors still expect more stocks to support market gains as the year goes on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在年初经历了艰难的开局后，科技股和成长股重新掌握了市场的主导权。科技股（.SPLRCT）是第二季度表现最好的标普 500 行业，而 “七大巨头” 股票（MAGS.Z）自市场 4 月低点以来大幅上涨。这一表现重新引发了对少数大型股票推动市场的担忧，包括这种上涨可能在表面下并不强劲。许多投资者仍然希望随着年末的临近，更多股票能够支持市场的上涨。</p>
</div><p>The equal-weight version of the S&amp;P 500 - which better captures performance of the average stock in the index - is up nearly 4% in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标普 500 的等权重版本更好地反映了该指数中平均股票的表现，2025 年上涨近 4%。</p>
</div><p>“I would suspect that if the market is going to continue pushing higher, you’re going to need to see broadening,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我怀疑如果市场要继续上涨，你需要看到更广泛的上涨，” 西北互助财富管理公司的首席投资官布伦特·舒特说。</p>
</div><p>HOW EXPENSIVE CAN EQUITIES GET? With the market’s rebound, stock valuations have also ascended. On Friday, when the S&amp;P 500 hit its first record high in over four months, the index’s forward price-to-earnings ratio reached 22.2. That was the highest level since February and well above its long-term average of 15.8.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票的估值能有多高？随着市场的反弹，股票估值也随之上升。在周五，当标普 500 指数创下四个月来的首次历史新高时，该指数的前瞻市盈率达到了 22.2。这是自 2 月份以来的最高水平，远高于其长期平均水平 15.8。</p>
</div><p>As investors seek to value equities, they are increasingly looking to future earnings prospects, including whether 2026 profits significantly improve. S&amp;P 500 earnings are expected to rise 8.5% this year and 14% next year. Another factor is Treasury yields, which tend to pressure equity valuations when they rise. While benchmark yields have subsided since earlier this year, any spike in the 10-year yield could rattle stock investors, such as if the U.S. fiscal bill moving through Congress prompts concerns about the widening deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着投资者寻求对股票进行估值，他们越来越关注未来的盈利前景，包括 2026 年利润是否会显著改善。预计标普 500 的盈利今年将增长 8.5%，明年将增长 14%。另一个因素是国债收益率，当其上升时往往会对股票估值施加压力。尽管基准收益率自今年早些时候以来有所回落，但如果国会通过的美国财政法案引发对赤字扩大担忧，10 年期收益率的任何飙升都可能会动摇股票投资者。</p>
</div><p>WILL ‘U.S. EXCEPTIONALISM’ DOUBTS DENT EQUITIES? Questions about the allure of U.S. assets have been a global theme in 2025, triggered by Trump’s stunning tariffs announcement in April that sparked uncertainty over American policy. The U.S. dollar recently hit its lowest level in three years against a basket of major currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘美国例外主义’ 的质疑会削弱股票吗？关于美国资产吸引力的问题在 2025 年成为全球主题，这一主题是由特朗普在 4 月发布的惊人关税公告引发的，导致对美国政策的不确定性。最近，美国美元兑一篮子主要货币的汇率达到了三年来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>After a long period of dominance over other regions, U.S. equities have also trailed their international counterparts so far this year. Non-U.S. equities are still relatively cheap in general, creating questions about which group will win out over the rest of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了长期的主导地位后，美国股票在今年迄今为止也落后于国际同行。非美国股票总体上仍相对便宜，这引发了对哪一组股票将在 2025 年剩余时间内胜出的疑问。</p>
</div><p>WILL GEOPOLITICS RE-EMERGE AS A RISK? Stocks pulled back briefly during the recent Israel-Iran conflict before tensions calmed, but analysts are wary that resumption of Middle East hostilities could cause fresh volatility. That would particularly be the case if constraints on oil supply led crude prices to soar above $100 a barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>地缘政治是否会重新成为风险？在最近的以色列 - 伊朗冲突期间，股票短暂回落，但分析师警惕中东敌对行动的恢复可能会导致新的波动。如果石油供应受到限制，导致原油价格飙升至每桶 100 美元以上，情况尤其如此。</p>
</div><p>Spikes in geopolitical unrest over the past 30 years have rarely been a headwind for U.S. equity returns, Barclays strategists said in a recent note. But they added that “geopolitical risk flare-ups do motivate bouts of elevated volatility, and risk assets in general would be vulnerable should the current conflict escalate.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去 30 年中，地缘政治动荡的激增很少对美国股票回报构成阻力，巴克莱策略师在最近的一份报告中表示。但他们补充说，“地缘政治风险的突发确实会引发高波动性，风险资产在当前冲突升级的情况下将特别脆弱。”</p>
</div><p>GRAPHIC: Tech stocks storm back</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表：科技股强势回归</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/3TNbeJo" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/3TNbeJo"/></p>
<p>GRAPHIC: Rising US stock valuations</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表：美国股票估值上升</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4ny0QmO" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4ny0QmO"/></p>
<p>GRAPHIC: US equities trailing international in 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表：2025 年美国股票落后于国际股票</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/45JeooV" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/45JeooV"/></p>
<p>GRAPHIC: US stocks vs yields</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表：美国股票与收益率的对比</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/447Waw7" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/447Waw7"/></p>

ANALYSIS-Six questions facing US stock investors as 2025's second half kicks off

- 美国股市在 2025 年上半年创下新高，但面临多重风险。  
- 特朗普的关税政策可能影响公司利润和消费者支出。  
- 美联储预计将于 9 月前后降息，市场对此充满关注。  

分析-2025 年下半年开始之际，美国股票投资者面临的六大问题