<p><strong>微软</strong>(MSFT -1.02%) 的股价今年上涨了 18%（截至 6 月 27 日的回报），这使得该股票达到了新的历史高点。它一直是一个传统上安全的投资选择，但如今的价格确实昂贵，交易价格约为其过去收益的 38 倍。</p>
<p>该业务有许多增长机会，并且在人工智能（AI）领域扮演了重要角色，这让投资者对其长期前景持乐观态度。但考虑到其高估值，您是否应该考虑在股价下跌时再将该股票纳入您的投资组合？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMxMzIvaW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1zdG9ja3Mtb24tYS10YWJsZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMxMzIvaW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1zdG9ja3Mtb24tYS10YWJsZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>微软的股票交易的收益倍数高于其 10 年平均水平</h2>
<p>进入本周交易时，微软的估值达到了创纪录的水平，市值为 3.7 万亿美元。它是目前市场上估值最高的股票之一，仅次于 <strong>英伟达</strong>。但市值本身并不能告诉投资者一只股票是否被高估。</p>
<p>查看股票的市盈率（P/E）倍数可以有效地评估其相对价值。您可以将其与其他股票进行比较，甚至查看其历史平均水平。根据其 10 年平均市盈率，微软目前确实看起来是一只昂贵的股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f4837958eb2b2f0ce456fb6d424c6d02.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f4837958eb2b2f0ce456fb6d424c6d02.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>根据上述数据，该股票看起来并不是极其昂贵，但投资者似乎确实在为该业务支付更高的溢价。如果一家企业表现特别好并且增长速度高于正常水平，或者它有一个巨大的增长催化剂——例如 AI，那么更高的市盈率倍数是可以理解的。</p>
<h2>微软的增长率高于正常水平</h2>
<p>近年来，微软通过收购视频游戏公司动视暴雪和在 AI 领域的重磅投资实现了扩张。目前，其 AI 业务的年收入达到了 130 亿美元，这对于一家过去 12 个月销售额达到 2700 亿美元的科技公司来说是一个适度的数字。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f106a3ecccca9b86a013f276bbd1487.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f106a3ecccca9b86a013f276bbd1487.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>如果对 AI 驱动的个人电脑的需求增加，仍然有可能实现更多的增长。不幸的是，随着消费者在动荡的经济环境中缩减开支，可能需要一些时间才能对其运营产生显著影响。</p>
<h2>您今天应该购买微软股票吗？</h2>
<p>微软是一个不错的长期投资，但我今天不会购买。在如此高的估值下，我认为它的增长不足以证明如此高的溢价，尤其是当有许多更便宜的 AI 股票可供选择时；目前没有足够令人信服的理由投资微软。</p>
<p>我会将该股票列入观察名单，但我不会以目前的估值购买。安全边际不大，如果科技支出放缓，尤其是如果公司担心经济衰退，那么该股票可能会有相当大的下跌空间。</p>

微软

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>微软的股票今年上涨了 18%，达到了历史新高，但目前的市盈率为 38，超过了其 10 年的平均水平。尽管公司在人工智能方面具有增长潜力，但考虑到当前的经济环境，其估值可能并不合理。分析师建议在投资之前等待价格回调，因为在人工智能领域还有更便宜的替代品，并且存在科技支出放缓的潜在风险</p>

<p>Shares of <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -1.02%) are up 18% this year (returns as of June 27), and that has pushed the stock to a new all-time high. It's been a traditionally safe stock to own, but it's definitely expensive these days, trading at around 38 times its trailing earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微软</strong>(MSFT -1.02%) 的股价今年上涨了 18%（截至 6 月 27 日的回报），这使得该股票达到了新的历史高点。它一直是一个传统上安全的投资选择，但如今的价格确实昂贵，交易价格约为其过去收益的 38 倍。</p>
</div><p>The business has many growth opportunities and has been a big player in artificial intelligence (AI), which has investors bullish on its long-term future. But given its high valuation, should you consider waiting for a dip in price before adding the stock to your portfolio?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该业务有许多增长机会，并且在人工智能（AI）领域扮演了重要角色，这让投资者对其长期前景持乐观态度。但考虑到其高估值，您是否应该考虑在股价下跌时再将该股票纳入您的投资组合？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMxMzIvaW52ZXN0b3ItbG9va2luZy1hdC1zdG9ja3Mtb24tYS10YWJsZXQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823132%2Finvestor-looking-at-stocks-on-a-tablet.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft's stock is trading at a higher earnings multiple than its 10-year average</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软的股票交易的收益倍数高于其 10 年平均水平</h2>
</div><p>Entering trading this week, Microsoft's valuation was at record levels, with a market cap of $3.7 trillion. It's one of the most highly valued stocks on the market today, trailing only <strong>Nvidia</strong>. But market cap alone doesn't tell investors if a stock is overpriced or not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进入本周交易时，微软的估值达到了创纪录的水平，市值为 3.7 万亿美元。它是目前市场上估值最高的股票之一，仅次于 <strong>英伟达</strong>。但市值本身并不能告诉投资者一只股票是否被高估。</p>
</div><p>Looking at a stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple can be an effective way to gauge its relative value. You can compare it to other stocks or even look at its historical average. And based on its 10-year average P/E, Microsoft does indeed look like an expensive stock right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看股票的市盈率（P/E）倍数可以有效地评估其相对价值。您可以将其与其他股票进行比较，甚至查看其历史平均水平。根据其 10 年平均市盈率，微软目前确实看起来是一只昂贵的股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f4837958eb2b2f0ce456fb6d424c6d02.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f4837958eb2b2f0ce456fb6d424c6d02.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSFT 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The stock doesn't look wildly expensive based on the above figure, but investors do appear to be paying a higher premium for the business these days. A higher P/E multiple can be justifiable if a business is performing particularly well and growing at a higher rate than normal, or if it has a big growth catalyst -- such as AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据上述数据，该股票看起来并不是极其昂贵，但投资者似乎确实在为该业务支付更高的溢价。如果一家企业表现特别好并且增长速度高于正常水平，或者它有一个巨大的增长催化剂——例如 AI，那么更高的市盈率倍数是可以理解的。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft's growth rate has been higher than normal</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软的增长率高于正常水平</h2>
</div><p>In recent years, Microsoft has expanded through its acquisition of video gaming company Activision-Blizzard and its heavy investments in AI. Currently, its AI business is generating revenue at an annual run rate of $13 billion, which is a modest amount for a tech company whose sales over the trailing 12 months have totaled $270 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年来，微软通过收购视频游戏公司动视暴雪和在 AI 领域的重磅投资实现了扩张。目前，其 AI 业务的年收入达到了 130 亿美元，这对于一家过去 12 个月销售额达到 2700 亿美元的科技公司来说是一个适度的数字。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f106a3ecccca9b86a013f276bbd1487.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f106a3ecccca9b86a013f276bbd1487.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSFT 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>There's still potentially much more growth ahead if demand for AI-powered PCs picks up. Unfortunately, with consumers scaling back on spending amid turbulent economic conditions, it may take some time before that may have any sizable impact on its operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果对 AI 驱动的个人电脑的需求增加，仍然有可能实现更多的增长。不幸的是，随着消费者在动荡的经济环境中缩减开支，可能需要一些时间才能对其运营产生显著影响。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Microsoft stock today?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>您今天应该购买微软股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft is a good long-term investment, but I wouldn't buy it today. At such a high valuation, I don't think it's generating nearly enough growth to justify such a high premium, especially when there are many cheaper AI stocks to choose from; there's not nearly a compelling enough reason to invest in Microsoft right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软是一个不错的长期投资，但我今天不会购买。在如此高的估值下，我认为它的增长不足以证明如此高的溢价，尤其是当有许多更便宜的 AI 股票可供选择时；目前没有足够令人信服的理由投资微软。</p>
</div><p>I'd put the stock on a watch list, but I wouldn't buy it at its current valuation. There's not much margin of safety and if there's a slowdown in tech spending, especially if companies worry about an economic downturn, then there could be considerable room for the stock to fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我会将该股票列入观察名单，但我不会以目前的估值购买。安全边际不大，如果科技支出放缓，尤其是如果公司担心经济衰退，那么该股票可能会有相当大的下跌空间。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Microsoft Stock Now or Wait for a Dip?

- 微软股票今年上涨 18%，市值达 3.7 万亿美元，创历史新高。  
- 当前市盈率约为 38 倍，高于其 10 年平均水平，显示出高估值。  
- 尽管长期前景看好，但在高估值下，建议投资者观望。  

现在是否应该购买微软股票，还是等待股价下跌后再买入？