<p>最佳的烟花表演始于一种不祥的寂静，观众安静，天空昏暗，期待感浓厚。然后，夜空瞬间变得明亮。市场有时也会如此。</p>
<p>经过数周的横盘整理，一系列链上和宏观信号的突然聚集可以点燃资产的火花，而这正是 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 0.66%）今天所处的状态。五个独立的需求指标同时倾向于看涨。让我们分析每一个指标，看看它们如何与长期持有这款加密货币的理论相结合。</p>
<h2>这五个绿灯亮起了</h2>
<p>首先，资金正通过交易所交易基金（ETF）渠道涌入比特币。</p>
<p>数字资产产品刚刚迎来了连续第十周的资金流入，超过 11 亿美元直接流入比特币投资组合。这是从 5 月已经强劲的步伐中加速而来，使得今年迄今的资金流入超过 150 亿美元，创下新纪录。新资本至关重要，因为每个 ETF 发行者必须前往现货市场购买并将币种从流通中取出。</p>
<p>比特币的第二个突破信号是网络本身变得昂贵。顺便提一下，大多数投资者通常完全忽视这些数据，而这些数据通常包含一些可操作的信息。</p>
<p>本周网络的每日费用收入飙升至 7890 万美元，为 3 月以来的最高水平，并且超过了一个月以来每日费用收入超过 5000 万美元的总和。</p>
<p>比特币矿工喜欢上涨的费用，因为这些费用增加了他们的利润，并激励他们对挖矿硬件进行更多的资本投资，以保持挖矿过程的进行。投资者也应该喜欢这些费用，因为费用只有在流量繁忙时才会激增。这意味着这是一个明确的信号，表明人们愿意支付更多以进入下一个区块。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI5MzQvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWJpdGNvaW4uanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI5MzQvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWJpdGNvaW4uanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>第三个看涨因素是稳定币供应再次上升。与美元挂钩的稳定币的总市值刚刚超过 2510 亿美元，在过去 30 天内上涨了 2.5%。</p>
<p>虽然大多数投资者并不将稳定币的交易量与比特币直接关联，但不可否认的是，稳定币是加密货币的干粉。因此，当这笔资金在增长时，至少有一部分资本最终会追逐流动性最深的币种以获取收益，而比特币仍然是加密领域中流动性最深的池子。</p>
<p>第四，全球广义货币供应在去年收缩后开始回升。这一点很重要，因为该币种与货币供应增长的相关性比其他任何因素都要紧密。换句话说，当由于货币供应的增加而导致流动性潮水上涨时，比特币的表现最为突出。</p>
<p>最后，山寨币市场已经苏醒，聪明的山寨币投资者通常会将他们的利润重新投入比特币，而不是保留高度波动的代币。但在此之前，资本流入较小代币通常标志着牛市的中期阶段。这是一个信号，表明资本正在变得自信并寻求杠杆，就像现在发生的情况一样。</p>
<p>历史上，一旦轮换开始，比特币就会随之进行主导性移动以重新确立领导地位，这可能是接下来要发生的事情。</p>
<h2>请记住，这里仍然存在逆风</h2>
<p>在 2020 年 10 月和 2024 年 1 月这两次所有五个指标一致时，比特币在六个月内翻了一番。这并不保证会重演，即使这可能足以让投资者现在有信心地购买该币。</p>
<p>有两个特别的阴云可能会给派对泼冷水。</p>
<p>美国联邦储备可能不会像许多投资者预期的那样迅速降息，特别是如果关税驱动的通胀使消费者价格保持高位。如果降息预期再次落空，流动性增长可能会暂停。这将意味着比特币可能会陷入低迷，而不是爆发。</p>
<p>与此同时，华盛顿的加密货币规则手册仍在每周不断完善，关于该行业最终监管机构的重大不确定性依然存在。稳定币的监管正在推进，但新的要求可能会减缓供应增长，如果发行者需要新的许可证或资本缓冲来参与。</p>
<h2>为潜在突破做好准备</h2>
<p>假设这五个信号持续良好，监管事务和货币政策不会妨碍，比特币在接下来的几个季度突破其之前的历史高点的几率看起来非常强。</p>
<p>这里一个合理的操作方案是逐步建立或增加头寸，采用定投（DCA）策略。保留一些资本以便在任何回调时能够采取行动，而不做出情绪化的决策。并确保你的头寸规模不会颠覆你的财务目标，即使比特币下跌 40% 或更多，而这在加密货币中是完全可能的。</p>
<p>对于长期投资者来说，这是一个有条不紊地获取敞口并保持警惕的时刻，而不是追逐炒作。关键是要做好准备，并耐心等待让币种为你随着时间的推移而增长。</p>

CRCL

<p>五个指标暗示比特币可能出现突破：1）比特币 ETF 的资金流入创纪录，今年超过 150 亿美元。2）比特币网络的每日手续费收入上升，表明流量增加。3）稳定币供应量增长，通常会导致对比特币的投资。4）全球货币供应量的上升与比特币的表现相关。5）山寨币市场的活动增加，通常在比特币上涨之前。然而，潜在的阻力包括美国联邦储备政策的不确定性和不断变化的加密货币监管。建议投资者考虑采用定投策略以获得敞口</p>

<p>The best fireworks shows start with an ominous hush, when the crowd is quiet, the sky dark, and anticipation thick. Then, all at once, the night goes bright. Markets sometimes do the same thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最佳的烟花表演始于一种不祥的寂静，观众安静，天空昏暗，期待感浓厚。然后，夜空瞬间变得明亮。市场有时也会如此。</p>
</div><p>After weeks of sideways chop, a sudden cluster of on-chain and macro signals can light the fuse under an asset, which is exactly where <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 0.66%) sits today. Five independent gauges of demand are all tilting bullish at once. Let's analyze each one to see how they mesh with the long-term thesis for buying and holding this crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经过数周的横盘整理，一系列链上和宏观信号的突然聚集可以点燃资产的火花，而这正是 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 0.66%）今天所处的状态。五个独立的需求指标同时倾向于看涨。让我们分析每一个指标，看看它们如何与长期持有这款加密货币的理论相结合。</p>
</div><h2>These five green lights are on</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这五个绿灯亮起了</h2>
</div><p>First, money is pouring into Bitcoin through the exchange-traded fund (ETF) pipeline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，资金正通过交易所交易基金（ETF）渠道涌入比特币。</p>
</div><p>Digital-asset products just booked their 10th straight week of inflows, pulling more than $1.1 billion straight into Bitcoin portfolios. That is an acceleration from May's already-robust pace, and pushes the flows this year so far to more than $15 billion, a new record. Fresh capital matters because every ETF issuer must go to the spot market to buy and take coins out of circulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数字资产产品刚刚迎来了连续第十周的资金流入，超过 11 亿美元直接流入比特币投资组合。这是从 5 月已经强劲的步伐中加速而来，使得今年迄今的资金流入超过 150 亿美元，创下新纪录。新资本至关重要，因为每个 ETF 发行者必须前往现货市场购买并将币种从流通中取出。</p>
</div><p>The second breakout signal for Bitcoin is that the network itself is getting pricey. As an aside, most investors usually ignore this data entirely, and it usually contains some actionable information.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的第二个突破信号是网络本身变得昂贵。顺便提一下，大多数投资者通常完全忽视这些数据，而这些数据通常包含一些可操作的信息。</p>
</div><p>Daily fee revenue on the network popped to $78.9 million this week, the highest tally since March, and topping off more than a full month of fee revenue exceeding $50 million daily.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周网络的每日费用收入飙升至 7890 万美元，为 3 月以来的最高水平，并且超过了一个月以来每日费用收入超过 5000 万美元的总和。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin miners love rising fees because those fees fatten their margins and incentivize them to make more capital investments into mining hardware to keep the mining process going. Investors should love them too, because fees spike only when traffic is heavy. This means it's a blunt sign that people are willing to pay up to get into the next block.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币矿工喜欢上涨的费用，因为这些费用增加了他们的利润，并激励他们对挖矿硬件进行更多的资本投资，以保持挖矿过程的进行。投资者也应该喜欢这些费用，因为费用只有在流量繁忙时才会激增。这意味着这是一个明确的信号，表明人们愿意支付更多以进入下一个区块。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI5MzQvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWJpdGNvaW4uanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822934%2Fstock-market-bitcoin.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>The third bullish factor is that stablecoin supply is grinding higher again. The aggregate market cap of dollar-pegged stablecoins sits just above $251 billion, up 2.5% during the past 30 days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三个看涨因素是稳定币供应再次上升。与美元挂钩的稳定币的总市值刚刚超过 2510 亿美元，在过去 30 天内上涨了 2.5%。</p>
</div><p>While most investors don't associate stablecoin volume with Bitcoin specifically, it's undeniable that stablecoins are the dry powder of crypto. So when the pile is growing, at least some of the capital ends up chasing coins with the deepest liquidity to capture a yield, and Bitcoin is still the deepest pool in the crypto sector by far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然大多数投资者并不将稳定币的交易量与比特币直接关联，但不可否认的是，稳定币是加密货币的干粉。因此，当这笔资金在增长时，至少有一部分资本最终会追逐流动性最深的币种以获取收益，而比特币仍然是加密领域中流动性最深的池子。</p>
</div><p>Fourth, global broad money supply is turning up after last year's contraction. That's important because the coin correlates more tightly with money supply growth than anything else. In other words, when the liquidity tide rises as a result of increases to the money supply, Bitcoin floats highest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第四，全球广义货币供应在去年收缩后开始回升。这一点很重要，因为该币种与货币供应增长的相关性比其他任何因素都要紧密。换句话说，当由于货币供应的增加而导致流动性潮水上涨时，比特币的表现最为突出。</p>
</div><p>Finally, the altcoin market has woken up, and smart altcoin investors often rotate their profits back into Bitcoin rather than retaining highly volatile tokens. But before that, capital rotations into smaller tokens typically mark the middle innings of a bull run. It's a sign that capital is growing confident and looking for leverage, like what's happening right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，山寨币市场已经苏醒，聪明的山寨币投资者通常会将他们的利润重新投入比特币，而不是保留高度波动的代币。但在此之前，资本流入较小代币通常标志着牛市的中期阶段。这是一个信号，表明资本正在变得自信并寻求杠杆，就像现在发生的情况一样。</p>
</div><p>Historically, once rotation begins, Bitcoin follows with a dominant move to reassert leadership, which is what could come next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，一旦轮换开始，比特币就会随之进行主导性移动以重新确立领导地位，这可能是接下来要发生的事情。</p>
</div><h2>Remember that headwinds still exist here</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>请记住，这里仍然存在逆风</h2>
</div><p>The last two times all five of these gauges lined up, in October 2020 and January 2024, Bitcoin doubled within six months. That does not guarantee a repeat, even if it's probably enough to enable investors to buy the coin with confidence right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2020 年 10 月和 2024 年 1 月这两次所有五个指标一致时，比特币在六个月内翻了一番。这并不保证会重演，即使这可能足以让投资者现在有信心地购买该币。</p>
</div><p>Two clouds in particular could rain on the party.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有两个特别的阴云可能会给派对泼冷水。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as quickly as many investors are expecting, especially if tariff-driven inflation keeps consumer prices high. If rate-cut expectations get dashed again, liquidity growth could pause. That would imply doldrums for Bitcoin rather than a blastoff.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国联邦储备可能不会像许多投资者预期的那样迅速降息，特别是如果关税驱动的通胀使消费者价格保持高位。如果降息预期再次落空，流动性增长可能会暂停。这将意味着比特币可能会陷入低迷，而不是爆发。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Washington's crypto rulebook is still in the process of being written by the week, and considerable uncertainty remains regarding what the final set of regulators for the sector will be. Stablecoin oversight is advancing, but fresh requirements could slow supply growth if issuers need new licenses or capital buffers to play ball.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，华盛顿的加密货币规则手册仍在每周不断完善，关于该行业最终监管机构的重大不确定性依然存在。稳定币的监管正在推进，但新的要求可能会减缓供应增长，如果发行者需要新的许可证或资本缓冲来参与。</p>
</div><h2>Positioning for a potential breakout</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为潜在突破做好准备</h2>
</div><p>Assuming the five signals keep humming, and regulatory matters and monetary policy don't get in the way, Bitcoin's odds of clearing its prior all-time highs look very strong over the next couple of quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假设这五个信号持续良好，监管事务和货币政策不会妨碍，比特币在接下来的几个季度突破其之前的历史高点的几率看起来非常强。</p>
</div><p>A sensible playbook here is to build or top up a position gradually using dollar-cost averaging (DCAing). Keep some capital in reserve so you can act on buying any dips without making emotional decisions. And make sure the size of your position won't upend your financial goals, even if Bitcoin drops 40% or more, which the crypto is entirely capable of doing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里一个合理的操作方案是逐步建立或增加头寸，采用定投（DCA）策略。保留一些资本以便在任何回调时能够采取行动，而不做出情绪化的决策。并确保你的头寸规模不会颠覆你的财务目标，即使比特币下跌 40% 或更多，而这在加密货币中是完全可能的。</p>
</div><p>For long-term investors, this is a moment to get exposure methodically and stay alert, rather than chasing hype. The key is being prepared and being patient enough to let the coin do the work for you to grow over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于长期投资者来说，这是一个有条不紊地获取敞口并保持警惕的时刻，而不是追逐炒作。关键是要做好准备，并耐心等待让币种为你随着时间的推移而增长。</p>
</div>

5 Indicators Pointing Toward a Massive Bitcoin Breakout Right Now

- 比特币当前面临五个看涨信号，资金流入加速，ETF 投资超过 15 亿美元。  
- 网络交易费用达到 7890 万美元，显示出市场活跃度上升。  
- 稳定币供应和全球货币供应增长，可能推动比特币价格上涨。

5 个指标显示比特币当前可能出现大规模突破