<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 2.62%) 已经完全从四月份的剧烈抛售中恢复过来。截至本文撰写时，英伟达今年迄今上涨了 17.5%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 仅上涨了 5%——这使得这家芯片巨头有望在连续第三年超越基准指数，此前在 2023-2024 年间上涨超过 819%。有很多理由相信，英伟达可以继续成为未来几年内的赢家投资。</p><p>如果你回到五或十年前，问投资者到 2025 年下半年最有价值的公司会是什么——大多数人可能会说 <strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong> 或 <strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>。这四家公司在那段时间内都取得了优异的回报——但与英伟达相比，毫无疑问不值一提——英伟达现在是全球最有价值的公司，并且距离成为首个市值 4 万亿美元的公司仅一步之遥。</p><p>以下是为什么这只成长股现在值得买入，但为什么英伟达不太可能在未来产生爆炸性收益的原因。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/3fde8271e5d65c12fb98b8e3ad56458d?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/3fde8271e5d65c12fb98b8e3ad56458d"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="bj58xivd9">英伟达的盈利驱动增长</h2><p>英伟达因其超常的股票表现而备受关注。乍一看，飙升的股价看起来像是充满热空气和狂热的泡沫。但英伟达独特之处在于，其股价实际上反映了公司的业绩。</p><p>在短短几年内，英伟达从不稳定盈利转变为高利润的现金奶牛。注意英伟达（粉色线）从几乎没有净收入变成了全球最盈利的公司之一。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/c29e4d27c26bf71d06d937cf44c3b811?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="623" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/c29e4d27c26bf71d06d937cf44c3b811"/></figure><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p><p>如上图所示，英伟达在过去 12 个月的净收入中排名第五，仅次于 Alphabet、苹果、微软和 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>。英伟达的秘密武器不是销售——而是高利润率。以下是同一组公司，但按利润率排名。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/351d9c3eff3c81e5012d18c137a7c7cd?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="623" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/351d9c3eff3c81e5012d18c137a7c7cd"/></figure><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p><p>英伟达将超过一半的销售额转化为净收入——对于一家设计实体产品而非销售软件或运营数字生态系统的公司来说，这实在是令人难以置信。</p><h2 id="c8hhj73py">人工智能支出全速推进</h2><p>拥有轻资本商业模式和高利润率的公司值得获得溢价估值，因为它们不需要投入大量资金就能赚钱。</p><p>英伟达将其芯片制造外包给像 <strong>台积电</strong> 这样的合作伙伴，这与苹果大多数产品不进行自我制造类似。然而，关键的区别在于，英伟达主要向企业销售，而苹果则面向消费者。</p><p>英伟达的主要客户是超大规模公司——那些对云计算、运行人工智能（AI）模型等需求巨大的大型科技公司。</p><p>尽管面临贸易紧张和关税压力，但许多这些公司并没有减少资本支出的迹象——这表明它们对人工智能采取了长期投资的信心。</p><p>随着高利润芯片的销售不断涌入，英伟达可以为其下一代产品的研发预算提供资金，并在不影响现金流的情况下承担风险。只要这种良性循环持续下去，英伟达很可能会继续超越标准普尔 500 指数。</p><p>除了拥有高利润率外，英伟达还拥有无可挑剔的资产负债表，使其能够在不影响财务健康的情况下积极投资于创新。该公司在最近一个季度结束时拥有 536.9 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和可交易证券，以及仅 84.6 亿美元的长期债务。拥有强大的资产负债表和高利润率意味着英伟达可以承担风险，而不需要每一笔投资都能获利。</p><h2 id="6y1lshstw">英伟达并非没有风险</h2><p>尽管有这些优势，英伟达确实面临一些可能影响未来股票表现的挑战。竞争正在加剧，其他公司试图侵蚀英伟达的主导市场份额。例如，<strong>博通</strong> 正在从超大规模客户那里获得对其人工智能芯片的巨大需求。</p><p>英伟达还容易受到地缘政治风险的影响，无论是在制造还是销售其芯片方面。当贸易紧张局势在四月份加剧时，英伟达表示，如果关税持续存在，可能会因与中国的关税和贸易限制而面临 55 亿美元的损失。</p><p>另一个风险是投资周期。英伟达的主要客户目前在芯片上的支出很高，因为我们仍处于人工智能投资的早期阶段。随着市场的成熟，一些客户可能会减缓投资步伐，从而影响英伟达的增长率。</p><p>最后，还有大数法则。英伟达在从十亿级别的净收入增长到数十亿时，复合增长要容易得多。但随着公司规模的扩大，以快速的速度增长利润将变得更加困难。超大规模公司正在投资人工智能，但它们需要看到这些投资带来回报，以提升预算，并进而增加对英伟达的订单量。</p><p>公平地说，分析师共识估计已经预测到增长放缓，预计 2026 财年的每股收益（EPS）为 4.29 美元，2027 财年为 5.76 美元。但即使英伟达的增长放缓至每年约 30%，该股票仍然可以说是一个很好的价值。在本文撰写时，英伟达的股价为 157.75 美元，基于 2026 财年 EPS 估计，其市盈率（P/E）为 36.8（如果股价保持不变），基于 2027 财年估计，其市盈率为 27.4。</p><h2 id="te645iyjj">英伟达在长期内可以继续超越标准普尔 500 指数</h2><p>英伟达制造出极其复杂、尖端的产品。但其投资论点却非常简单。</p><p>英伟达的盈利增长可以为其股票价格的上涨提供合理依据，只要其客户继续为其芯片和其他解决方案支付高价。然而，投资者应关注主要客户可能出现的支出缩减或来自竞争对手的利润侵蚀。</p><p>到目前为止，几乎没有迹象表明英伟达的投资论点正在减弱。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达（Nvidia，股票代码：NVDA）在经历了一轮抛售后反弹，今年迄今上涨了 17.5%，表现优于标准普尔 500 指数的 5% 涨幅。在过去两年中，英伟达的股价上涨了 819%，公司有望继续保持成功，得益于高利润率和对人工智能芯片的强劲需求。该公司拥有强健的资产负债表，现金达 536.9 亿美元，债务极少。然而，面临的挑战包括竞争加剧、地缘政治风险以及随着人工智能市场的成熟，客户支出可能发生的变化。尽管存在这些风险，英伟达仍然是一个强劲的投资选择</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.62%) has more than recovered from a brutal sell-off in April. At the time of this writing, Nvidia is up 17.5% year to date compared to a 5% gain in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> -- putting the chip giant on track to outperform the benchmark index for the third consecutive year after gaining over 819% in 2023-2024. There are plenty of reasons to believe Nvidia can continue being a winning investment for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 2.62%) 已经完全从四月份的剧烈抛售中恢复过来。截至本文撰写时，英伟达今年迄今上涨了 17.5%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 仅上涨了 5%——这使得这家芯片巨头有望在连续第三年超越基准指数，此前在 2023-2024 年间上涨超过 819%。有很多理由相信，英伟达可以继续成为未来几年内的赢家投资。</p>
</div><p>If you were to go back in time five or 10 years and ask investors what the most valuable company would be entering the second half of 2025 -- most folks probably would have said <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, or <strong>Alphabet</strong>. All four of those companies produced excellent returns over that period -- but none compare to Nvidia -- which is now the most valuable company in the world and is within striking distance of becoming the first $4 trillion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你回到五或十年前，问投资者到 2025 年下半年最有价值的公司会是什么——大多数人可能会说 <strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong> 或 <strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>。这四家公司在那段时间内都取得了优异的回报——但与英伟达相比，毫无疑问不值一提——英伟达现在是全球最有价值的公司，并且距离成为首个市值 4 万亿美元的公司仅一步之遥。</p>
</div><p>Here's why the growth stock is a buy now, but why Nvidia is unlikely to generate explosive gains going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是为什么这只成长股现在值得买入，但为什么英伟达不太可能在未来产生爆炸性收益的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMyOTQvYS1wZXJzb24tc21pbGVzLXdoaWxlLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtdGhlaXItcGhvbmUtYW5kLXNpdHRpbmctYXQtYS10YWJsZS13aXRoLW11bHRpcGxlLXNjcmVlbnMtZGlzcGxheWluZy1maW5hbmNpYWwtZGF0YS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823294%2Fa-person-smiles-while-looking-at-their-phone-and-sitting-at-a-table-with-multiple-screens-displaying-financial-data.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Earnings-driven growth for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的盈利驱动增长</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia gets a lot of attention for its outsize stock performance. At first glance, the surging stock price looks like a bubble full of hot air and euphoria. But what's so unique about Nvidia is that its stock price actually mirrors the company's performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达因其超常的股票表现而备受关注。乍一看，飙升的股价看起来像是充满热空气和狂热的泡沫。但英伟达独特之处在于，其股价实际上反映了公司的业绩。</p>
</div><p>In just a few years, Nvidia has gone from inconsistently profitable to a high-margin cash cow. Notice how Nvidia (the pink line) went from having very little net income to becoming one of the most profitable companies in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短短几年内，英伟达从不稳定盈利转变为高利润的现金奶牛。注意英伟达（粉色线）从几乎没有净收入变成了全球最盈利的公司之一。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/25c1442110163111baa2c752251eac5f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/25c1442110163111baa2c752251eac5f.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>As you can see in the above chart, Nvidia is fifth behind Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, and <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> in terms of trailing-12-month net income. Nvidia's secret sauce isn't sales -- it's high margins. Here's that same list of companies, but ranked in order of profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上图所示，英伟达在过去 12 个月的净收入中排名第五，仅次于 Alphabet、苹果、微软和 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>。英伟达的秘密武器不是销售——而是高利润率。以下是同一组公司，但按利润率排名。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5313356dba81753557dcb693171960ca.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5313356dba81753557dcb693171960ca.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is converting over half of its sales into net income -- which is incredible for a company that designs a physical product rather than selling software or operating a digital ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达将超过一半的销售额转化为净收入——对于一家设计实体产品而非销售软件或运营数字生态系统的公司来说，这实在是令人难以置信。</p>
</div><h2>Full steam ahead on AI spending</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能支出全速推进</h2>
</div><p>Companies with capital-light business models and high margins deserve premium valuations because they don't need to invest a lot of money to make money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拥有轻资本商业模式和高利润率的公司值得获得溢价估值，因为它们不需要投入大量资金就能赚钱。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia outsources its chip manufacturing to partners like <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>, similar to how Apple doesn't manufacture most of its products. However, the key difference is that Nvidia mainly sells to businesses, whereas Apple sells to consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达将其芯片制造外包给像 <strong>台积电</strong> 这样的合作伙伴，这与苹果大多数产品不进行自我制造类似。然而，关键的区别在于，英伟达主要向企业销售，而苹果则面向消费者。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's key customers are hyperscalers -- the other big tech companies that demand power for cloud computing, to run artificial intelligence (AI) models, and more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的主要客户是超大规模公司——那些对云计算、运行人工智能（AI）模型等需求巨大的大型科技公司。</p>
</div><p>Despite trade tensions and tariff pressures, many of these companies showed no signs of reducing capital expenditures -- a vote of confidence that they are taking a long-term approach to AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管面临贸易紧张和关税压力，但许多这些公司并没有减少资本支出的迹象——这表明它们对人工智能采取了长期投资的信心。</p>
</div><p>With sales pouring in for its high-margin chips, Nvidia can fuel its research and development budget for its next generation of products and take risks without straining its cash flow. As long as this virtuous cycle continues, Nvidia will likely be able to continue outperforming the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着高利润芯片的销售不断涌入，英伟达可以为其下一代产品的研发预算提供资金，并在不影响现金流的情况下承担风险。只要这种良性循环持续下去，英伟达很可能会继续超越标准普尔 500 指数。</p>
</div><p>In addition to having high margins, Nvidia also has an impeccable balance sheet that allows it to aggressively invest in innovation without impacting its financial health. The company exited its most recent quarter with $53.69 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities and just $8.46 billion in long-term debt. Having a strong balance sheet and high margins means that Nvidia can afford to take risks without needing every bet to pay off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了拥有高利润率外，英伟达还拥有无可挑剔的资产负债表，使其能够在不影响财务健康的情况下积极投资于创新。该公司在最近一个季度结束时拥有 536.9 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和可交易证券，以及仅 84.6 亿美元的长期债务。拥有强大的资产负债表和高利润率意味着英伟达可以承担风险，而不需要每一笔投资都能获利。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia isn't without risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达并非没有风险</h2>
</div><p>Despite these advantages, Nvidia does have some challenges that could impact the stock going forward. Competition is heating up as other companies try to eat into Nvidia's dominant market share. For example, <strong>Broadcom</strong> is seeing phenomenal demand from hyperscale customers for its AI chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管有这些优势，英伟达确实面临一些可能影响未来股票表现的挑战。竞争正在加剧，其他公司试图侵蚀英伟达的主导市场份额。例如，<strong>博通</strong> 正在从超大规模客户那里获得对其人工智能芯片的巨大需求。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is also vulnerable to geopolitical risk, both in terms of manufacturing and selling its chips. When trade tensions were heating up in April, Nvidia said that it could take a $5.5 billion charge directly related to tariffs and trade restrictions with China if tariffs persisted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达还容易受到地缘政治风险的影响，无论是在制造还是销售其芯片方面。当贸易紧张局势在四月份加剧时，英伟达表示，如果关税持续存在，可能会因与中国的关税和贸易限制而面临 55 亿美元的损失。</p>
</div><p>Another risk is the investment cycle. Nvidia's key customers are spending a lot on chips right now because we are still in the early innings of AI investments. Some customers may take their foot off the gas as the market matures, impacting Nvidia's growth rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个风险是投资周期。英伟达的主要客户目前在芯片上的支出很高，因为我们仍处于人工智能投资的早期阶段。随着市场的成熟，一些客户可能会减缓投资步伐，从而影响英伟达的增长率。</p>
</div><p>Finally, there's the law of large numbers. It was much easier for Nvidia to compound when it went from single-digit billions to tens of billions in net income per year. But the larger the company gets, the harder it will be to grow profits at a breakneck rate. Hyperscalers are spending on AI, but they need to see these investments pay off to boost their budgets and, in turn, order volumes from Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，还有大数法则。英伟达在从十亿级别的净收入增长到数十亿时，复合增长要容易得多。但随着公司规模的扩大，以快速的速度增长利润将变得更加困难。超大规模公司正在投资人工智能，但它们需要看到这些投资带来回报，以提升预算，并进而增加对英伟达的订单量。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, a growth slowdown is already projected in analyst consensus estimates, which call for $4.29 in fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) and $5.76 in fiscal 2027. But even if Nvidia's growth slows to around 30% per year, the stock is arguably still a great value. At $157.75 per share at the time of this writing, Nvidia would have a 36.8 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio based on fiscal 2026 EPS estimates (and if the stock price remained flat) and a 27.4 P/E based on fiscal 2027 estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，分析师共识估计已经预测到增长放缓，预计 2026 财年的每股收益（EPS）为 4.29 美元，2027 财年为 5.76 美元。但即使英伟达的增长放缓至每年约 30%，该股票仍然可以说是一个很好的价值。在本文撰写时，英伟达的股价为 157.75 美元，基于 2026 财年 EPS 估计，其市盈率（P/E）为 36.8（如果股价保持不变），基于 2027 财年估计，其市盈率为 27.4。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia can continue outperforming the S&amp;P 500 over the long term</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达在长期内可以继续超越标准普尔 500 指数</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia makes incredibly complicated, cutting-edge products. But its investment thesis is beautifully simple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达制造出极其复杂、尖端的产品。但其投资论点却非常简单。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's earnings growth can justify a higher stock price as long as its customers keep paying top dollar for its chips and other solutions. However, investors should be on the lookout for potential spending pullbacks from key customers or margin erosion from competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的盈利增长可以为其股票价格的上涨提供合理依据，只要其客户继续为其芯片和其他解决方案支付高价。然而，投资者应关注主要客户可能出现的支出缩减或来自竞争对手的利润侵蚀。</p>
</div><p>So far, there have been very few signs that indicate Nvidia's investment thesis is weakening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，几乎没有迹象表明英伟达的投资论点正在减弱。</p>
</div>

Will Nvidia Beat the S&P 500 for the Third Consecutive Year After Gaining 819% in the Prior 2 Years?

- Nvidia 股价已从四月的抛售中恢复，年初至今上涨 17.5%。  
- 公司在高利润率和强劲现金流的支持下，继续吸引投资。  
- 竞争加剧和地缘政治风险可能影响未来增长。

在过去两年增长了 819% 之后，英伟达能否连续第三年超越标准普尔 500 指数？