<p>股市更关注未来的盈利潜力而非过去的表现——这可能就是为什么 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Apple</strong>（NASDAQ: AAPL）和 <strong>Amazon</strong>（NASDAQ: AMZN）今天的市值都超过了 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG 1.61%）（GOOGL 1.56%），尽管 Alphabet 是唯一一家在过去 12 个月净收入超过 1000 亿美元的 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 公司。</p>
<p>以下是市场为何将 Alphabet 的盈利与其他大型成长股视为不同，以及 Alphabet 现在是否值得购买的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMzMzIvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWEtY291Y2gtcmVhY3RpbmctdG8taW5mb3JtYXRpb24tb24tYS1zaGVldC1vZi1wYXBlci1pbi1hLWNvbmZ1c2VkLW1hbm5lci5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMzMzIvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWEtY291Y2gtcmVhY3RpbmctdG8taW5mb3JtYXRpb24tb24tYS1zaGVldC1vZi1wYXBlci1pbi1hLWNvbmZ1c2VkLW1hbm5lci5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>不仅仅是一个数字</h2>
<p>盈利是投资者用来评估公司价值的最重要指标之一。公司产生的利润是投资论点的一个重要组成部分，但对未来利润的预期同样重要。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/893a943e7192be57d1cdc2558d8b40c9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/893a943e7192be57d1cdc2558d8b40c9.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL 净收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>尽管净收入只是一个数字，但其中有值得理解的细微差别。一个在快速增长行业中运营、具有竞争优势、高利润率和良好资产负债表的领先公司，其盈利质量远高于在衰退或甚至失败的行业中运营的、周期性且资本密集型的公司。</p>
<p>这一概念解释了为什么即使是最好的石油和天然气公司，如 <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> 和 <strong>Chevron</strong>，也会有如此低廉的估值。它们的盈利并不是高利润的，产生这些盈利需要大量资本。而且，几十年后，石油和天然气的消费可能与今天大相径庭。这并不意味着 ExxonMobil 和 Chevron 是糟糕的公司。实际上，两者都是优秀的分红股票。这只是意味着投资者不太可能以与高利润率的超快速成长公司如 Nvidia 相同的价格来评估这些公司的盈利。</p>
<p>Alphabet 并没有资本密集型的商业模式。它产生高利润率，并且从其服务（如 Google 搜索、Google 网络、YouTube、Android、Google Cloud 等）中拥有多样化的收入来源。它还拥有出色的资产负债表，现金、现金等价物和可交易证券的总额超过债务。尽管有这些优势，Alphabet 的市盈率（P/E）和前瞻市盈率远低于 Nvidia、Microsoft、Apple 和 Amazon。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/46216995c59ea7bc22322010e51223b2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/46216995c59ea7bc22322010e51223b2.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>预期驱动估值</h2>
<p>这种折扣估值是 Alphabet 的市值低于其同行的原因，尽管其利润更高。由于投资者对 Alphabet 未来盈利前景的乐观程度较低，Alphabet 的估值远低于一些同行。</p>
<p>Nvidia 正在推动人工智能（AI）的未来，提供数据中心的图形处理单元。大型科技公司继续在 AI 上投资，因此投资者对 Nvidia 产品的需求将持续增长持乐观态度。</p>
<p>Microsoft 正在将 AI 整合到其软件中，并且是仅次于 Amazon 的云计算第二大玩家。相比之下，Alphabet 的 Google Cloud 在市场份额上远远落后。</p>
<p>Apple 的增长速度并不快，但该公司拥有如此强大的垂直整合的消费产品和服务生态系统，以至于投资者愿意为其股票相对于盈利支付溢价。</p>
<p>Alphabet 的大部分运营收入来自 Google 搜索。与 Amazon（可以说是 Microsoft）不同，云并不是该公司的最有价值的部分。Alphabet 的 AI 业务主要来自 Google Cloud 和其 “其他投资” 类别，其中包括自动驾驶公司 Waymo 和负责聊天机器人 Gemini 的 AI 研究实验室 DeepMind。</p>
<p>总之，市场可能将 Alphabet 的商业模式视为比其他明显受益于 AI 的大型成长公司更容易受到技术进步的影响。</p>
<h2>Alphabet 是一个无可挑剔的价值</h2>
<p>沃伦·巴菲特有一句著名（且仍然适用）的名言：“在股市中，你为乐观的共识支付了非常高的价格。” 对许多投资者有利的公司往往会要求昂贵的估值，而具有不确定性的公司则可能以折扣价出售。</p>
<p>现在购买 Alphabet 的最简单理由是，如果你认为市场对该公司 AI 潜力的怀疑是不 warranted 或过度的。在这种情况下，投资者可以以远低于同行的价格购买 Alphabet。如果 Alphabet 的市盈率为 30，而不是低于 20 的市盈率，它的市值将超过 3 万亿美元。如果它的市盈率与 Microsoft 相同，它将成为世界上最有价值的公司。</p>
<p>在许多方面，Alphabet 确实应该以低于这些其他大型科技公司的价格交易。但也许只是低一点——而不是我们今天在市场上看到的巨大差异。总的来说，现在是对大型科技感兴趣的价值投资者购买 Alphabet 股票的绝佳时机。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>尽管 Alphabet 是标准普尔 500 指数中最盈利的公司，净收入超过 1000 亿美元，但其市值却低于 Nvidia、Microsoft、Apple 和 Amazon。这一差异源于市场对未来盈利潜力的看法，投资者对 Alphabet 的增长前景，尤其是在人工智能领域的乐观程度较低。虽然 Alphabet 拥有强劲的资产负债表和多元化的收入来源，但其较低的市盈率反映了市场对其人工智能能力的怀疑，相较于同行而言。价值投资者可能会发现 Alphabet 在当前折扣估值下具有吸引力</p>

<p>The stock market cares more about future earnings potential than the past -- and that may be why <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Apple</strong>(NASDAQ: AAPL), and <strong>Amazon</strong>(NASDAQ: AMZN) are all worth more than <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.61%)(GOOGL 1.56%) today even though Alphabet is the only <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> stock with over $100 billion in trailing-12-month net income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市更关注未来的盈利潜力而非过去的表现——这可能就是为什么 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Apple</strong>（NASDAQ: AAPL）和 <strong>Amazon</strong>（NASDAQ: AMZN）今天的市值都超过了 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG 1.61%）（GOOGL 1.56%），尽管 Alphabet 是唯一一家在过去 12 个月净收入超过 1000 亿美元的 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 公司。</p>
</div><p>Here's why the market views Alphabet's earnings differently than other megacap growth stocks, and whether Alphabet is a buy now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是市场为何将 Alphabet 的盈利与其他大型成长股视为不同，以及 Alphabet 现在是否值得购买的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjMzMzIvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWEtY291Y2gtcmVhY3RpbmctdG8taW5mb3JtYXRpb24tb24tYS1zaGVldC1vZi1wYXBlci1pbi1hLWNvbmZ1c2VkLW1hbm5lci5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823332%2Ftwo-people-sitting-on-a-couch-reacting-to-information-on-a-sheet-of-paper-in-a-confused-manner.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>More than just a number</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不仅仅是一个数字</h2>
</div><p>Earnings are one of the most important metrics investors use to value a company. How much profit a company generates is an integral part of an investment thesis. But so are expectations for future profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利是投资者用来评估公司价值的最重要指标之一。公司产生的利润是投资论点的一个重要组成部分，但对未来利润的预期同样重要。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/893a943e7192be57d1cdc2558d8b40c9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/893a943e7192be57d1cdc2558d8b40c9.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL Net Income (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 净收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Although net income is just a number, there are nuances worth understanding. A leading company that operates in a growing industry with competitive advantages, high profit margins, and a great balance sheet will have far higher-quality earnings than a company operating in a declining or even failing industry that is cyclical and capital-intensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管净收入只是一个数字，但其中有值得理解的细微差别。一个在快速增长行业中运营、具有竞争优势、高利润率和良好资产负债表的领先公司，其盈利质量远高于在衰退或甚至失败的行业中运营的、周期性且资本密集型的公司。</p>
</div><p>This concept is why even the best oil and gas companies, like <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> and <strong>Chevron</strong>, sport such inexpensive valuations. Their earnings aren't high-margin. Generating them takes a lot of capital. And oil and gas consumption may look much different decades from now than today. This doesn't mean ExxonMobil and Chevron are bad companies. In fact, both are excellent dividend stocks. It just means investors are unlikely to pay the same price for these companies relative to their earnings as, say, an ultra-fast-growing company with high margins like Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一概念解释了为什么即使是最好的石油和天然气公司，如 <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> 和 <strong>Chevron</strong>，也会有如此低廉的估值。它们的盈利并不是高利润的，产生这些盈利需要大量资本。而且，几十年后，石油和天然气的消费可能与今天大相径庭。这并不意味着 ExxonMobil 和 Chevron 是糟糕的公司。实际上，两者都是优秀的分红股票。这只是意味着投资者不太可能以与高利润率的超快速成长公司如 Nvidia 相同的价格来评估这些公司的盈利。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet doesn't have a capital-intensive business model. It generates high margins and has diverse revenue streams from its services like Google Search, Google Network, YouTube, Android, Google Cloud, and more. It also has a phenomenal balance sheet with more cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities than debt. Despite these advantages, Alphabet sports a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and forward P/E ratio that are far lower than Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 并没有资本密集型的商业模式。它产生高利润率，并且从其服务（如 Google 搜索、Google 网络、YouTube、Android、Google Cloud 等）中拥有多样化的收入来源。它还拥有出色的资产负债表，现金、现金等价物和可交易证券的总额超过债务。尽管有这些优势，Alphabet 的市盈率（P/E）和前瞻市盈率远低于 Nvidia、Microsoft、Apple 和 Amazon。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/46216995c59ea7bc22322010e51223b2.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/46216995c59ea7bc22322010e51223b2.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Expectations drive valuations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预期驱动估值</h2>
</div><p>This discounted valuation is why Alphabet is worth less than its peers despite making more profit. Alphabet's valuation is much cheaper than some of its peers because investors are less optimistic about its future earnings prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种折扣估值是 Alphabet 的市值低于其同行的原因，尽管其利润更高。由于投资者对 Alphabet 未来盈利前景的乐观程度较低，Alphabet 的估值远低于一些同行。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is powering the future of artificial intelligence (AI) with its graphics processing units for data centers. Big tech continues to spend on AI, so investors are optimistic that demand for Nvidia's products will continue growing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 正在推动人工智能（AI）的未来，提供数据中心的图形处理单元。大型科技公司继续在 AI 上投资，因此投资者对 Nvidia 产品的需求将持续增长持乐观态度。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is integrating AI into its software and is the No. 2 player in cloud computing behind Amazon. In contrast, Alphabet's Google Cloud is a distant third in market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Microsoft 正在将 AI 整合到其软件中，并且是仅次于 Amazon 的云计算第二大玩家。相比之下，Alphabet 的 Google Cloud 在市场份额上远远落后。</p>
</div><p>Apple isn't growing quickly, but the company has such a dominant, vertically integrated ecosystem of consumer products and services that investors are willing to pay a premium price for the stock relative to its earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Apple 的增长速度并不快，但该公司拥有如此强大的垂直整合的消费产品和服务生态系统，以至于投资者愿意为其股票相对于盈利支付溢价。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet makes the majority of its operating income from Google Search. Unlike Amazon (and arguably Microsoft), cloud is not the most valuable aspect of the company. Alphabet's AI plays mainly come from Google Cloud and its &#34;Other Bets&#34; category, which consists of projects like self-driving company Waymo and AI research lab DeepMind, which is behind the chatbot Gemini.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 的大部分运营收入来自 Google 搜索。与 Amazon（可以说是 Microsoft）不同，云并不是该公司的最有价值的部分。Alphabet 的 AI 业务主要来自 Google Cloud 和其 “其他投资” 类别，其中包括自动驾驶公司 Waymo 和负责聊天机器人 Gemini 的 AI 研究实验室 DeepMind。</p>
</div><p>In sum, the market may be viewing Alphabet's business model as more vulnerable to technological advancements in AI than other megacap growth companies that are clearly benefiting from AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，市场可能将 Alphabet 的商业模式视为比其他明显受益于 AI 的大型成长公司更容易受到技术进步的影响。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet is an impeccable value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Alphabet 是一个无可挑剔的价值</h2>
</div><p>There's a famous (and still relevant) quote by Warren Buffett that goes, &#34;You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus.&#34; Companies that are favorable to many investors tend to demand expensive valuations, whereas companies with an element of uncertainty can fetch a discount.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特有一句著名（且仍然适用）的名言：“在股市中，你为乐观的共识支付了非常高的价格。” 对许多投资者有利的公司往往会要求昂贵的估值，而具有不确定性的公司则可能以折扣价出售。</p>
</div><p>The simplest reason to buy Alphabet right now is if you believe the market's skepticism about the company's AI potential is unwarranted or overblown. In that case, investors can buy Alphabet at a steep discount to its peers. If Alphabet had a 30 P/E ratio instead of a sub-20 P/E, it would be worth well over $3 trillion. If it had Microsoft's P/E, it would be the most valuable company in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在购买 Alphabet 的最简单理由是，如果你认为市场对该公司 AI 潜力的怀疑是不 warranted 或过度的。在这种情况下，投资者可以以远低于同行的价格购买 Alphabet。如果 Alphabet 的市盈率为 30，而不是低于 20 的市盈率，它的市值将超过 3 万亿美元。如果它的市盈率与 Microsoft 相同，它将成为世界上最有价值的公司。</p>
</div><p>In many ways, Alphabet deserves to trade at a discount to these other big tech names. But maybe only by a little bit -- not the drastic discrepancy we are seeing in the market today. All told, now is a great time for value investors interested in big tech to buy Alphabet stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在许多方面，Alphabet 确实应该以低于这些其他大型科技公司的价格交易。但也许只是低一点——而不是我们今天在市场上看到的巨大差异。总的来说，现在是对大型科技感兴趣的价值投资者购买 Alphabet 股票的绝佳时机。</p>
</div>

Why Is Alphabet Stock Worth Less Than Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon Even Though It Is the Most Profitable S&P 500 Company?

- 市场更关注未来盈利潜力，导致 Alphabet 估值低于其他科技巨头。  
- 尽管 Alphabet 净收入超过 1000 亿美元，但投资者对其未来盈利预期不乐观。  
- 当前是价值投资者购买 Alphabet 股票的良机。  

为什么 Alphabet 的股票价值低于 Nvidia、微软、苹果和亚马逊，即使它是标普 500 中最赚钱的公司？