<p>由于财政担忧，国债收益率上升</p>
<p>预计税收法案将在十年内减少 4.5 万亿美元的税收收入</p>
<p>该法案预计将提升企业盈利，推高股价</p>
<p>作者：Davide Barbuscia</p>
<p>纽约，7 月 3 日（路透社）——美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的减税和支出法案于周四通过国会，避免了美国政府近期违约的前景，但使美国的长期债务问题更加严重。众议院的共和党立法者批准了这项法案，该法案将延续特朗普 2017 年的减税政策，授权增加边境安全和军事支出，显著削减医疗保险和医疗补助——并使政府的债务增加数万亿。特朗普预计将签署该法案成为法律。</p>
<p>作为税收方案的一部分，立法者将美国政府的 36.1 万亿美元的借款上限提高了 5 万亿美元，预计该上限将在今夏晚些时候达到——这一举措将缓解对美国债务可能违约的担忧。</p>
<p>分析师估计，所谓的 X 日期，即财政部在不增加或暂停债务上限的情况下将无法支付所有义务的日期，可能发生在 8 月底或 9 月初。</p>
<p>然而，从长期来看，该法案在很大程度上被视为对美国债券市场和国家财政健康的坏消息。非党派分析师估计，这将在未来十年内使国家债务增加 3.4 万亿美元。这将加剧对额外债券供应和对美国国债需求减少的担忧，而这些在最近几个月一直是金融市场的关键驱动因素。</p>
<p>“该法案加剧了关于国债的一些结构性担忧，主要体现在第一，持续的财政赤字和高企的债务水平，第二，通货膨胀，” 威灵顿管理公司的宏观策略师迈克·梅德罗斯表示。</p>
<p>黑石公司周一警告称，外国买家对美国债务的兴趣已经减弱。对美国每周发行的 5000 亿美元债务的需求可能会进一步下降，从而推高借贷成本。</p>
<p>“我们已经强调美国政府债务的脆弱性有一段时间了，如果不加以控制，我们认为债务是美国在金融市场上 ‘特殊地位’ 的最大风险，” 黑石的投资经理在一份报告中表示。根据国会预算办公室的估计，该法案预计将在未来十年内减少 4.5 万亿美元的税收收入，减少 1.2 万亿美元的支出，并使 1090 万人失去联邦健康保险。该立法还通过允许企业全额抵扣设备采购和研发费用等方式刺激经济增长，并提供其他税收减免。然而，一些投资者担心，债务负担可能会抑制该法案中的经济刺激，特朗普称之为 “一个美丽的大法案”。</p>
<p>威灵顿管理公司的固定收益投资组合经理坎佩·古德曼表示，他预计该法案将在明年为经济增长增加多达 0.5%，但市场对长期借贷成本上升的风险过于自满。</p>
<p>“我们认为这个美丽的大法案将加速企业盈利增长，最终将推动股权价值，” F.L. Putnam 投资管理公司的首席市场策略师艾伦·哈岑表示。“但这可能导致国债利率长期维持在较高水平，使许多固定收益投资在长期内变得不那么有吸引力，” 她说。基准 10 年期国债收益率在经历几天的下跌后于周三上涨，部分原因归因于财政担忧激怒了投资者。债券价格下跌时，收益率上升。</p>
<p>国家联盟资本市场的国际固定收益负责人安德鲁·布伦纳表示，周三的抛售是所谓的债券警惕者——通过使政府借贷变得极其昂贵来惩罚不良政策的投资者——正在关注市场的迹象。</p>
<p>“警惕者希望看到更多的赤字削减……他们认为特朗普和国会做得还不够，” 他在周三给客户的报告中写道。</p>
<h3>债务上限救济</h3>
<p>通过提高美国联邦借款上限，该法案消除了美国债务违约的低概率但高影响风险，这可能对全球市场造成灾难性后果。</p>
<p>最近几周，某些到期于 8 月的国债利率已超过同期到期的短期国债收益率，表明投资者对即将到来的 X 日期感到紧张。</p>
<p>“我认为（该法案的通过）消除了部分债务上限风险，因此 8 月到期的国债收益率可能会稍微下降，” 位于孟菲斯的雷蒙德·詹姆斯固定收益资本市场主管文尼·布劳表示。</p>
<p>总体而言，债券市场对法案通过的反应相对温和。由于特朗普在 1 月重返白宫，赤字扩张已经被市场定价，投资者的关注在最近几周转向经济增长的担忧。</p>
<p>当然，许多市场参与者表示，该法案的通过在其他关键市场驱动因素面前是次要的。基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）周三收于历史最高点，受科技股上涨和美国贸易协议进展的推动。</p>
<p>最近几周经济数据的放缓也增强了对美联储今年降息的预期，促进了股票和债券的乐观情绪，尽管周四的强劲就业报告抑制了对货币政策立即放松的希望。</p>
<p>“这不会成为市场的整体驱动因素，” 康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德的达科塔财富高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克表示。</p>
<p>“首先是盈利，然后是美联储，” 他说。</p>

<p>特朗普总统的税收法案延长了减税政策，并将借款上限提高了 5 万亿美元，避免了美国近期违约，但加剧了长期债务问题，预计在未来十年内将国家债务增加 3.4 万亿美元。该法案预计将减少税收收入 4.5 万亿美元，并削减支出 1.2 万亿美元，影响 1090 万人联邦健康保险。尽管这可能会推动企业盈利和经济增长，但对借款成本上升和对美国国债需求减少的担忧依然存在，分析师警告美国金融地位可能面临风险</p>

<p>Treasury yields rise amid fiscal concerns</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于财政担忧，国债收益率上升</p>
</div><p>Tax bill projected to reduce tax revenues by $4.5 trillion over a decade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计税收法案将在十年内减少 4.5 万亿美元的税收收入</p>
</div><p>Bill expected to boost corporate earnings, raise stock prices</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该法案预计将提升企业盈利，推高股价</p>
</div><p>By Davide Barbuscia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Davide Barbuscia</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, July 3 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill, which passed Congress on Thursday, averts the near-term prospect of a U.S. government default but makes America’s long-term debt problems even worse. Republican lawmakers in the House of Representatives approved the bill that will extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, authorize more spending on border security and the military, make steep cuts in Medicare and Medicaid – and add trillions to the government’s debt. Trump is expected to sign the bill into law.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，7 月 3 日（路透社）——美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的减税和支出法案于周四通过国会，避免了美国政府近期违约的前景，但使美国的长期债务问题更加严重。众议院的共和党立法者批准了这项法案，该法案将延续特朗普 2017 年的减税政策，授权增加边境安全和军事支出，显著削减医疗保险和医疗补助——并使政府的债务增加数万亿。特朗普预计将签署该法案成为法律。</p>
</div><p>As part of the tax package, lawmakers raised the U.S. government’s $36.1 trillion borrowing limit that it was projected to hit later this summer by $5 trillion – a move that will assuage concerns over a possible default on U.S. debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为税收方案的一部分，立法者将美国政府的 36.1 万亿美元的借款上限提高了 5 万亿美元，预计该上限将在今夏晚些时候达到——这一举措将缓解对美国债务可能违约的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Analysts had estimated the so-called X-date, when the Treasury would no longer be able to pay all of its obligations without an increase or suspension of the debt limit, could have occurred at the end of August or in early September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师估计，所谓的 X 日期，即财政部在不增加或暂停债务上限的情况下将无法支付所有义务的日期，可能发生在 8 月底或 9 月初。</p>
</div><p>Longer term, however, the bill has largely been seen as bad news for the U.S. bond market and the nation’s fiscal health. It will add $3.4 trillion to the nation’s debt over the next decade, nonpartisan analysts have estimated. That would exacerbate concerns over additional bond supply and dwindling demand for U.S. Treasuries that have been a key driver of financial markets in recent months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，从长期来看，该法案在很大程度上被视为对美国债券市场和国家财政健康的坏消息。非党派分析师估计，这将在未来十年内使国家债务增加 3.4 万亿美元。这将加剧对额外债券供应和对美国国债需求减少的担忧，而这些在最近几个月一直是金融市场的关键驱动因素。</p>
</div><p>“The bill contributes to some of the structural concerns around Treasuries, with respect to No. 1, ongoing fiscal deficit and elevated debt levels, and No. 2, inflation,” said Mike Medeiros, macro strategist at Wellington Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“该法案加剧了关于国债的一些结构性担忧，主要体现在第一，持续的财政赤字和高企的债务水平，第二，通货膨胀，” 威灵顿管理公司的宏观策略师迈克·梅德罗斯表示。</p>
</div><p>BlackRock warned on Monday that foreign buyers were already souring on American debt. There was a real risk that demand for the $500 billion in debt the U.S. issues every week will fall even more and push borrowing costs higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黑石公司周一警告称，外国买家对美国债务的兴趣已经减弱。对美国每周发行的 5000 亿美元债务的需求可能会进一步下降，从而推高借贷成本。</p>
</div><p>“We’ve been highlighting the precarious position of the U.S. government’s indebtedness for some time now, and, if left unchecked, we view debt as the single greatest risk to the ‘special status’ of the U.S. in financial markets,” BlackRock’s investment managers said in a note. The bill is projected to reduce tax revenues by $4.5 trillion, reduce spending by $1.2 trillion and cost 10.9 million people their federal health insurance over the next decade, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. The legislation also stokes economic growth by allowing businesses to fully expense equipment purchases as well as research and development costs, and provides other tax breaks. Some investors, however, worry the debt overhang could curtail the economic stimulus in the bill, which Trump refers to as the “One Big Beautiful Bill”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们已经强调美国政府债务的脆弱性有一段时间了，如果不加以控制，我们认为债务是美国在金融市场上 ‘特殊地位’ 的最大风险，” 黑石的投资经理在一份报告中表示。根据国会预算办公室的估计，该法案预计将在未来十年内减少 4.5 万亿美元的税收收入，减少 1.2 万亿美元的支出，并使 1090 万人失去联邦健康保险。该立法还通过允许企业全额抵扣设备采购和研发费用等方式刺激经济增长，并提供其他税收减免。然而，一些投资者担心，债务负担可能会抑制该法案中的经济刺激，特朗普称之为 “一个美丽的大法案”。</p>
</div><p>Campe Goodman, fixed-income portfolio manager at Wellington Management Company, said he expected the bill to add as much as 0.5% to economic growth next year, but that the market was too complacent about the long-term risk of higher borrowing costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威灵顿管理公司的固定收益投资组合经理坎佩·古德曼表示，他预计该法案将在明年为经济增长增加多达 0.5%，但市场对长期借贷成本上升的风险过于自满。</p>
</div><p>“We believe the One Big Beautiful Bill will accelerate corporate earnings growth, which ultimately will drive equity values,” said Ellen Hazen, chief market strategist at F.L. Putnam Investment Management. “But this could lead to higher-for-longer Treasury rates, making many fixed-income investments somewhat less attractive over the longer term,” she said. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were higher on Wednesday after days of decline, with the increase partly attributed to fiscal concerns agitating investors. Yields rise when bond prices drop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们认为这个美丽的大法案将加速企业盈利增长，最终将推动股权价值，” F.L. Putnam 投资管理公司的首席市场策略师艾伦·哈岑表示。“但这可能导致国债利率长期维持在较高水平，使许多固定收益投资在长期内变得不那么有吸引力，” 她说。基准 10 年期国债收益率在经历几天的下跌后于周三上涨，部分原因归因于财政担忧激怒了投资者。债券价格下跌时，收益率上升。</p>
</div><p>Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Capital Markets, said Wednesday’s selloff was a sign that so-called bond vigilantes – investors who punish bad policy by making it prohibitively expensive for governments to borrow – were circling the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国家联盟资本市场的国际固定收益负责人安德鲁·布伦纳表示，周三的抛售是所谓的债券警惕者——通过使政府借贷变得极其昂贵来惩罚不良政策的投资者——正在关注市场的迹象。</p>
</div><p>“The Vigilantes want to see more deficit cutting… Their view is Trump and Congress have not done enough,” he wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“警惕者希望看到更多的赤字削减……他们认为特朗普和国会做得还不够，” 他在周三给客户的报告中写道。</p>
</div><h3>DEBT LIMIT RELIEF</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>债务上限救济</h3>
</div><p>By raising the U.S. federal borrowing limits, the bill removes the low-probability but high-impact risk of a U.S. debt default, which could have catastrophic consequences for global markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过提高美国联邦借款上限，该法案消除了美国债务违约的低概率但高影响风险，这可能对全球市场造成灾难性后果。</p>
</div><p>In recent weeks, the interest rate on some Treasury debt due in August had risen more than yields of short-term Treasury bills coming due around the same time, a sign investors were getting nervous about the approaching X-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近几周，某些到期于 8 月的国债利率已超过同期到期的短期国债收益率，表明投资者对即将到来的 X 日期感到紧张。</p>
</div><p>“I think (the passage of the bill) takes some of the debt ceiling risks away so yields on bills maturing in August might come down a little bit,” said Vinny Bleau, director of fixed-income capital markets at Raymond James in Memphis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我认为（该法案的通过）消除了部分债务上限风险，因此 8 月到期的国债收益率可能会稍微下降，” 位于孟菲斯的雷蒙德·詹姆斯固定收益资本市场主管文尼·布劳表示。</p>
</div><p>Overall, the reaction of the bond market to the bill approval has been relatively muted. An expansion in deficits had already been priced in with Trump’s return to the White House in January, and investor focus has shifted in recent weeks to economic growth concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，债券市场对法案通过的反应相对温和。由于特朗普在 1 月重返白宫，赤字扩张已经被市场定价，投资者的关注在最近几周转向经济增长的担忧。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, many market participants said the passage of the bill was secondary to other key market drivers. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 Index (.SPX) closed at a record high on Wednesday, lifted by gains in tech stocks and progress on U.S. trade agreements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，许多市场参与者表示，该法案的通过在其他关键市场驱动因素面前是次要的。基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）周三收于历史最高点，受科技股上涨和美国贸易协议进展的推动。</p>
</div><p>A slowdown in economic data in recent weeks has also bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, contributing to optimism in stocks and bonds, although a blowout jobs report on Thursday dampened hopes for any immediate easing in monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近几周经济数据的放缓也增强了对美联储今年降息的预期，促进了股票和债券的乐观情绪，尽管周四的强劲就业报告抑制了对货币政策立即放松的希望。</p>
</div><p>“It’s not going to be the overall driving factor (for the market),” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这不会成为市场的整体驱动因素，” 康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德的达科塔财富高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克表示。</p>
</div><p>“It’s earnings first and then the Federal Reserve,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“首先是盈利，然后是美联储，” 他说。</p>
</div>

ANALYSIS-Trump tax bill averts one debt crisis but makes future financial woes worse

- 美国国会通过特朗普的税收和支出法案，预计将增加 3.4 万亿美元债务。  
- 法案将减少税收收入 4.5 万亿美元，并可能影响债券市场。  
- 该法案被视为短期内避免债务违约，但长期风险加剧。  

分析 - 特朗普的税收法案虽然避免了一次债务危机，但可能加剧未来的财务困境