<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.28%) 凭借其一流的图形处理单元 (GPU) 一跃成为全球最有价值公司的榜首。英伟达的芯片对于训练大型语言模型及其在应用中的使用至关重要。随着大型科技公司竞相构建更强大的人工智能能力，它们以英伟达能够提供的速度迅速购买其芯片。</p>
<p>随着英伟达接近 4 万亿美元的市值，其他公司几乎没有接近这个价值的。<strong>微软</strong> 是唯一一家市值超过 3.5 万亿美元的公司。但我预计在三年内将有另外两家公司超过英伟达的估值，尽管它们目前的市值仅为英伟达的 50% 到 60%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM0NTcvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM0NTcvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
<h2>英伟达能否突破 4 万亿美元？</h2>
<p>在我写这篇文章时，英伟达距离 4 万亿美元的里程碑仅有 4%。这不仅会使其成为首家超过该价值的公司，而且还将是在极快增长之后实现的。几年前，该公司的市值还不到 1 万亿美元。如此庞大的公司以如此快的速度增长，令人难以置信地反驳了大数法则。</p>
<p>推动英伟达强劲股价表现的有两个因素。首先，其收入增长持续令人印象深刻。第一季度总收入增长了 69%，达到了 441 亿美元。此外，随着需求持续超过新芯片设计的供应，它每个季度都产生了极高的毛利率。第一季度的调整后毛利率为 71.3%。这两者的结合导致了该业务的惊人盈利增长。</p>
<p>尽管英伟达在 GPU 领域的竞争芯片制造商中保持领先，但其最大的竞争对手在性能上显示出追赶的迹象。此外，其业务的很大一部分集中在少数几个大客户身上。这些客户正在积极努力将更多的人工智能工作负载转移到其他芯片制造商定制的芯片设计上，以提高成本效益。这些客户也受到激励去探索英伟达的替代方案，以防止这家芯片制造商对他们进行价格欺诈。</p>
<p>尽管英伟达应该继续在人工智能芯片销售中占据大部分市场份额，但其股票的定价似乎没有考虑到上述威胁。这使得现在的投资风险较大，并且在未来三年内预计股票增长放缓并不不合理。</p>
<p>这为两家被低估的科技巨头提供了超越这家芯片制造商市值的机会。这两家公司在未来三年内看起来可能会远远超过英伟达。</p>
<h2>1. 亚马逊</h2>
<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 1.62%) 运营着全球第二大零售业务和全球最大的云计算平台。</p>
<p>与英伟达类似，亚马逊的业务也受益于对人工智能 (AI) 的不断增长的支出。尽管在生成性人工智能领域起步较慢，但亚马逊网络服务 (AWS) 仍然保持领先地位，并为开发者提供引人注目的人工智能服务。在第一季度的财报电话会议上，首席执行官安迪·贾西表示，其人工智能业务为 AWS 产生了数十亿美元的收入，并以三位数的百分比增长。</p>
<p>这种强劲的增长帮助 AWS 扩大了运营利润率，第一季度达到了 39.5%。与此同时，管理层表示对其服务器的需求超过了供应，因此正在大量投资以扩大产能。管理层表示，今年的总资本支出将超过 1000 亿美元，其中大部分将用于建设和装备新的数据中心。</p>
<p>亚马逊在其不断增长的云计算业务上的巨额现金支出得到了其零售业务近期强劲表现的支持。特别是，得益于美国物流的重组，公司在过去几年中显著提高了运营利润率。现在，它能够以更快的速度向客户发货，这也帮助其运输费用在销售中的比例保持较低。此外，亚马逊在高利润广告销售方面也实现了强劲增长。总体而言，其北美零售运营利润率在过去 12 个月中扩大至 6.6%，而其国际业务在去年实现了正增长。</p>
<p>亚马逊在未来三年内其价值大幅增长有几个原因。首先，其云计算和零售业务的强劲业绩在可预见的未来应会持续。作为领先的云服务提供商，它仍然处于吸引希望在其运营中利用人工智能的企业的有利位置。</p>
<p>其次，随着对 AWS 的支出不断增长，资本支出小幅上升，预计公司在未来三年内将实现强劲的自由现金流增长。这可能会使公司迅速接近 1000 亿美元的自由现金流。如果股票提供 2.5% 的自由现金流收益率，低于其历史平均水平，这将使其成为一家 4 万亿美元的公司。</p>
<h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
<p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.73%) 是全球最大的社交媒体公司，拥有超过 34 亿独特用户，涵盖其应用家族。它也是虚拟和增强现实技术的领先开发者。</p>
<p>Meta 多年来一直在大力投资人工智能的开发，最近随着生成性人工智能展现出完全转变其业务的潜力，进一步加大了投资力度。Meta 计划在今年投入约 700 亿美元用于建设数据中心，并且最近还在进行招聘潮。这包括对 Scale AI 的 143 亿美元投资，促使公司的首席执行官迁移到 Meta 并领导其新的人工智能超级智能实验室。</p>
<p>该公司正在努力追赶领先的模型，因为其 Llama 4 模型让开发者失望。但随着行业变化的速度，Meta 有能力做到这一点。</p>
<p>人工智能对 Meta 运营的影响在过去几年中已经显著。得益于更高的用户参与度和更高的广告价格，该公司的广告收入在第一季度增长了 16%。但这两者都可能因人工智能的进一步进展而得到提升。</p>
<p>Meta 目前正在开发一种人工智能代理，可以为营销人员开发、测试和优化广告活动。这可能会增加现有营销人员的广告支出意愿，同时吸引新的广告客户进入 Meta 广告生态系统。如果人工智能在为个人定制广告方面比人类更有效，这可能会导致更高的转化率，进一步支持在 Meta 平台上的广告支出增加。</p>
<p>这种能力也体现了 Meta 开发针对每个用户独特的 AI 生成内容的能力，以提升其平台的整体参与度并增加广告机会。Meta 已经在其信息流中实验有限的 AI 生成内容。</p>
<p>这应该支持 Meta 在未来几年内强劲的收入增长，即使它在生成式人工智能和 Reality Labs 部门上投入巨资。如果人工智能能够推动更多消费者购买像 Meta 的 AI 眼镜或 Oculus 头显这样的可穿戴设备，这可能进一步支持该业务的强劲利润扩张。</p>
<p>该股票目前的交易价格为未来收益预期的 29 倍。但我预测 Meta 在未来三年将超出现有预期，股票将迅速上涨。即使它维持当前的收益倍数，未来三年平均收益增长仅为 14.5%——与分析师的预期一致——也应该使股票从这里上涨超过 50%，接近 3 万亿美元。而且从这里还有很大的上行空间。</p>

英伟达

亚马逊

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>英伟达接近 4 万亿美元的市值，主导了人工智能芯片市场，但面临来自定制芯片设计的竞争和风险。尽管收入增长令人瞩目，其股票可能会放缓，这使得两家被低估的公司——亚马逊和另一家未透露名称的科技巨头——在三年内有可能超越英伟达的估值。亚马逊在零售和云计算方面表现强劲，尤其是在人工智能服务领域，为未来的增长奠定了良好的基础，得益于大量的资本投资和改善的运营利润率</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.28%) has soared to the top of the list of most valuable companies in the world thanks to its best-in-class graphics processing units (GPUs). Nvidia's chips are essential for training large language models and using them in applications. As big tech companies race to build better and better AI capabilities, they've been buying up Nvidia's chips as fast as the company can provide them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.28%) 凭借其一流的图形处理单元 (GPU) 一跃成为全球最有价值公司的榜首。英伟达的芯片对于训练大型语言模型及其在应用中的使用至关重要。随着大型科技公司竞相构建更强大的人工智能能力，它们以英伟达能够提供的速度迅速购买其芯片。</p>
</div><p>As Nvidia approaches a $4 trillion market capitalization, few other companies are even close to that value. <strong>Microsoft</strong> is the only other company with a value above $3.5 trillion. But I expect that two other companies will surpass Nvidia's valuation within three years, even though they're currently worth between 50% and 60% of Nvidia's market value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着英伟达接近 4 万亿美元的市值，其他公司几乎没有接近这个价值的。<strong>微软</strong> 是唯一一家市值超过 3.5 万亿美元的公司。但我预计在三年内将有另外两家公司超过英伟达的估值，尽管它们目前的市值仅为英伟达的 50% 到 60%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM0NTcvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823457%2Fnvidia-headquarters-outside-with-black-nvidia-sign-with-nvidia-logo.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
</div><h2>Can Nvidia break $4 trillion?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达能否突破 4 万亿美元？</h2>
</div><p>As I write this, Nvidia is within 4% of the $4 trillion milestone. Not only would that make it the first company to surpass that value, it would also come after extremely fast growth. The company was worth less than $1 trillion just a couple of years ago. A company that large growing that fast is an incredible refutation of the law of large numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我写这篇文章时，英伟达距离 4 万亿美元的里程碑仅有 4%。这不仅会使其成为首家超过该价值的公司，而且还将是在极快增长之后实现的。几年前，该公司的市值还不到 1 万亿美元。如此庞大的公司以如此快的速度增长，令人难以置信地反驳了大数法则。</p>
</div><p>Two factors have been driving Nvidia's strong stock performance. First, its revenue growth has continued to impress. Total revenue climbed 69% in the first quarter to $44.1 billion. On top of that, it's produced an extremely high gross margin each quarter as demand continues to outstrip its supply for new chip designs. Adjusted gross margin in the first quarter was 71.3%. The combination has led to incredible earnings growth for the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推动英伟达强劲股价表现的有两个因素。首先，其收入增长持续令人印象深刻。第一季度总收入增长了 69%，达到了 441 亿美元。此外，随着需求持续超过新芯片设计的供应，它每个季度都产生了极高的毛利率。第一季度的调整后毛利率为 71.3%。这两者的结合导致了该业务的惊人盈利增长。</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia has managed to stay ahead of competing chipmakers in the GPU space, its biggest competitors are showing signs of catching up in performance. On top of that, a huge chunk of its business is concentrated in just a handful of big customers. And those customers are actively working to move more of their AI workloads onto custom chip designs made by other chipmakers in order to improve cost performance. Those customers are also incentivized to explore alternatives to Nvidia in order to prevent the chipmaker from price gouging them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英伟达在 GPU 领域的竞争芯片制造商中保持领先，但其最大的竞争对手在性能上显示出追赶的迹象。此外，其业务的很大一部分集中在少数几个大客户身上。这些客户正在积极努力将更多的人工智能工作负载转移到其他芯片制造商定制的芯片设计上，以提高成本效益。这些客户也受到激励去探索英伟达的替代方案，以防止这家芯片制造商对他们进行价格欺诈。</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia should continue to take the bulk of the share in AI chip sales, its stock is priced as if the above threats didn't exist. That makes it a risky investment right now, and it's not unreasonable to expect slower growth in the stock over the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英伟达应该继续在人工智能芯片销售中占据大部分市场份额，但其股票的定价似乎没有考虑到上述威胁。这使得现在的投资风险较大，并且在未来三年内预计股票增长放缓并不不合理。</p>
</div><p>That gives an opportunity for two undervalued tech giants to surpass the chipmaker in market cap. These two look like they could grow well beyond Nvidia over the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这为两家被低估的科技巨头提供了超越这家芯片制造商市值的机会。这两家公司在未来三年内看起来可能会远远超过英伟达。</p>
</div><h2>1. Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 亚马逊</h2>
</div><p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.62%) operates the second-largest retail business in the world and the largest cloud computing platform in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 1.62%) 运营着全球第二大零售业务和全球最大的云计算平台。</p>
</div><p>Like Nvidia, Amazon has seen its business benefit from the growing spending on artificial intelligence (AI). Despite its slow start in the generative AI space, Amazon Web Services (AWS) has managed to maintain its leading position and offer compelling AI services to developers. During its first-quarter earnings call, CEO Andy Jassy said its AI business is generating multiple billions of revenue for AWS and growing at triple-digit percentage rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与英伟达类似，亚马逊的业务也受益于对人工智能 (AI) 的不断增长的支出。尽管在生成性人工智能领域起步较慢，但亚马逊网络服务 (AWS) 仍然保持领先地位，并为开发者提供引人注目的人工智能服务。在第一季度的财报电话会议上，首席执行官安迪·贾西表示，其人工智能业务为 AWS 产生了数十亿美元的收入，并以三位数的百分比增长。</p>
</div><p>That strong growth has helped expand the operating margin for AWS, which climbed to 39.5% in the first quarter. At the same time, management says demand for its servers exceeds its supply, so it's spending heavily to expand its capacity. Total capital expenditures will total over $100 billion this year, management says. Most of that will go toward building and outfitting new data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种强劲的增长帮助 AWS 扩大了运营利润率，第一季度达到了 39.5%。与此同时，管理层表示对其服务器的需求超过了供应，因此正在大量投资以扩大产能。管理层表示，今年的总资本支出将超过 1000 亿美元，其中大部分将用于建设和装备新的数据中心。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's massive cash outlay for its growing cloud computing business is supported by the recent strength of its retail operations. In particular the company has pushed its operating margin significantly higher over the last couple of years, thanks, in part, to a reorganization of its U.S. logistics. It's now able to ship more items to customers with faster speeds, which has also helped keep its shipping expenses low as a percentage of sales. Additionally, Amazon has seen strong growth in its high-margin advertising sales. Overall, its North American retail operating margin has expanded to 6.6% of the last 12 months and its international segment turned positive last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在其不断增长的云计算业务上的巨额现金支出得到了其零售业务近期强劲表现的支持。特别是，得益于美国物流的重组，公司在过去几年中显著提高了运营利润率。现在，它能够以更快的速度向客户发货，这也帮助其运输费用在销售中的比例保持较低。此外，亚马逊在高利润广告销售方面也实现了强劲增长。总体而言，其北美零售运营利润率在过去 12 个月中扩大至 6.6%，而其国际业务在去年实现了正增长。</p>
</div><p>There are a couple of reasons Amazon should see its value increase substantially over the next three years. First, the strong results of its cloud and retail operations should continue for the foreseeable future. As the leading cloud provider, it's still in pole position to attract enterprises looking to utilize AI in their operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在未来三年内其价值大幅增长有几个原因。首先，其云计算和零售业务的强劲业绩在可预见的未来应会持续。作为领先的云服务提供商，它仍然处于吸引希望在其运营中利用人工智能的企业的有利位置。</p>
</div><p>Second, the company should see strong free-cash-flow growth over the next three years, as it sees growing spending on AWS with smaller steps up in capital expenditures. That could push the company toward $100 billion in free cash flow in short order. If the stock offers a 2.5% free-cash-flow yield, which is below its historical average, that would make it a $4 trillion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，随着对 AWS 的支出不断增长，资本支出小幅上升，预计公司在未来三年内将实现强劲的自由现金流增长。这可能会使公司迅速接近 1000 亿美元的自由现金流。如果股票提供 2.5% 的自由现金流收益率，低于其历史平均水平，这将使其成为一家 4 万亿美元的公司。</p>
</div><h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. Meta Platforms</h2>
</div><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.73%) is the largest social media company in the world with over 3.4 billion unique users across its family of apps. It's also a leading developer of virtual and augmented reality technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 0.73%) 是全球最大的社交媒体公司，拥有超过 34 亿独特用户，涵盖其应用家族。它也是虚拟和增强现实技术的领先开发者。</p>
</div><p>Meta has been spending heavily on developing artificial intelligence for years, recently stepping up its investments as generative AI shows the promise to completely transform its business. Not only is Meta planning about $70 billion of capital expenditures this year to build out data centers, it's also been on a hiring spree recently. That includes a $14.3 billion investment in Scale AI, which led the company's CEO to migrate to Meta and head up its new AI super intelligence lab.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 多年来一直在大力投资人工智能的开发，最近随着生成性人工智能展现出完全转变其业务的潜力，进一步加大了投资力度。Meta 计划在今年投入约 700 亿美元用于建设数据中心，并且最近还在进行招聘潮。这包括对 Scale AI 的 143 亿美元投资，促使公司的首席执行官迁移到 Meta 并领导其新的人工智能超级智能实验室。</p>
</div><p>The company is working to catch up with leading models after its Llama 4 model disappointed developers. But with the speed of change in the industry, Meta has the capability of doing just that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司正在努力追赶领先的模型，因为其 Llama 4 模型让开发者失望。但随着行业变化的速度，Meta 有能力做到这一点。</p>
</div><p>The impact of AI on Meta's operations over the last couple of years is already notable. The company's ad revenue climbed 16% in the first quarter on the back of both higher engagement and higher ad prices. But both could get a boost from further advances in AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能对 Meta 运营的影响在过去几年中已经显著。得益于更高的用户参与度和更高的广告价格，该公司的广告收入在第一季度增长了 16%。但这两者都可能因人工智能的进一步进展而得到提升。</p>
</div><p>Meta is now working on an AI agent that can develop, test, and optimize ad campaigns for marketers. This could increase existing marketers' willingness to spend on ads while bringing in new advertisers to the Meta ads ecosystem. And if AI is better at tailoring ads to individuals than humans, it could result in higher conversions, further supporting higher ad spending on Meta's platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta 目前正在开发一种人工智能代理，可以为营销人员开发、测试和优化广告活动。这可能会增加现有营销人员的广告支出意愿，同时吸引新的广告客户进入 Meta 广告生态系统。如果人工智能在为个人定制广告方面比人类更有效，这可能会导致更高的转化率，进一步支持在 Meta 平台上的广告支出增加。</p>
</div><p>That capability also speaks to Meta's ability to develop AI-generated content unique for each of its users to boost overall engagement on its platform and increase advertising opportunities. Meta's already experimenting with limited AI-generated content in its feeds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种能力也体现了 Meta 开发针对每个用户独特的 AI 生成内容的能力，以提升其平台的整体参与度并增加广告机会。Meta 已经在其信息流中实验有限的 AI 生成内容。</p>
</div><p>This should support strong revenue growth for Meta over the next few years, even as it spends heavily on both generative AI and its Reality Labs segment. And if AI can push more consumers to buy wearables like Meta's AI glasses or Oculus headsets, that could further support strong margin expansion for the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这应该支持 Meta 在未来几年内强劲的收入增长，即使它在生成式人工智能和 Reality Labs 部门上投入巨资。如果人工智能能够推动更多消费者购买像 Meta 的 AI 眼镜或 Oculus 头显这样的可穿戴设备，这可能进一步支持该业务的强劲利润扩张。</p>
</div><p>The stock currently trades for 29 times forward earnings expectations. But I predict Meta will outperform existing expectations over the next three years and the stock will climb rapidly as a result. Even if it maintains its current earnings multiple, average earnings growth of just 14.5% over the next three years -- in line with analysts expectations -- should push the stock more than 50% higher from here, approaching $3 trillion. And there's a lot of upside from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票目前的交易价格为未来收益预期的 29 倍。但我预测 Meta 在未来三年将超出现有预期，股票将迅速上涨。即使它维持当前的收益倍数，未来三年平均收益增长仅为 14.5%——与分析师的预期一致——也应该使股票从这里上涨超过 50%，接近 3 万亿美元。而且从这里还有很大的上行空间。</p>
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Prediction: 2 Incredible Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks That Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia in 3 Years

- Nvidia 市值接近 4 万亿美元，成为全球最有价值公司之一。  
- 其强劲的收入增长和高毛利率推动了股价表现。  
- 预计亚马逊和 Meta 将在未来三年内超越 Nvidia 的市值。

预测：两只极具潜力的人工智能（AI）股票将在三年内价值超过英伟达