<p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 0.98%)(BRK.B 0.98%) 的股票自沃伦·巴菲特宣布他将在年底辞去首席执行官职务（但仍将担任董事长）以来大幅下跌。</p>
<p>这就是为什么此次抛售对寻求长期持有超可靠蓝筹股的投资者来说是一个买入机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM2MzkvYS1wZXJzb24taG9sZGluZy1hLXBpZWNlLW9mLXBhcGVyLXNpdHMtYXQtYS1kZXNrLWluLWZyb250LW9mLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItbW9uaXRvci5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM2MzkvYS1wZXJzb24taG9sZGluZy1hLXBpZWNlLW9mLXBhcGVyLXNpdHMtYXQtYS1kZXNrLWluLWZyb250LW9mLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItbW9uaXRvci5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>成长股重新回归</h2>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票在年初表现强劲——在 5 月 2 日创下历史新高——就在其在奥马哈的年度股东大会前一天。</p>
<p>但在那次会议和 6 月 30 日之间，伯克希尔的股价下跌了 10%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 0.83%) 则上涨了 9.1%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/13f7bb07bafd4e14fb0c158532730dd8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="487" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/13f7bb07bafd4e14fb0c158532730dd8.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>在短时间内，这一显著的表现不佳是伯克希尔投资者所不习惯的。长期以来，该股票的表现超过了标准普尔 500 指数，从 1965 年到 2024 年，年均复合增长率为 19.9%，而该指数（包括再投资的股息）为 10.4%。</p>
<p>伯克希尔落后于标准普尔 500 指数的部分原因是投资情绪的变化。当关税动荡在市场上蔓延时，一些投资者倾向于选择那些即使在这些紧张局势升级时也能保持良好表现的公司。</p>
<p>无论市场周期如何，伯克希尔都是一只超安全的股票。这是因为它拥有的资产组合——从保险业务到 BNSF 铁路、能源巨头伯克希尔哈撒韦能源、制造资产、服务和零售业务，以及在 <strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>美国运通</strong>、<strong>可口可乐</strong> 等公共公司的持股。但最近，伯克希尔变得更加谨慎。</p>
<p>在 2025 年第一季度的财务报告中，伯克希尔披露了创纪录的 3480 亿美元现金、现金等价物和短期国债。在股东大会上，巴菲特表示，伯克希尔持有的国债超过了他所希望的，但强调了耐心和等待优秀投资机会的重要性。在这种情况下，伯克希尔变得更加防御性，因此在波动性激增时，投资者倾向于选择它。</p>
<p>巴菲特辞去首席执行官职务的消息，加上投资者寻求风险更高、潜在回报更大的股票以及较少防御性的股票，可能解释了为什么伯克希尔在过去两个月中表现如此不佳。</p>
<h2>伯克希尔充满复合潜力</h2>
<p>作为长期投资者，重要的是要过滤市场波动的噪音，并理解股票价格在短期内可能会做出各种与长期投资理论无关的变化。</p>
<p>今年早些时候，伯克希尔的股价受到一些投资者从大型成长股转向价值股的推动。但现在，情况正好相反，一些价值股如伯克希尔正在抛售或表现不佳，而大型成长股如 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 则创下历史新高。这并不是说英伟达和微软的商业模式在几个月前和现在发生了变化。相反，投资者愿意为未来的盈利增长支付溢价，因为关税减缓这一增长的风险大大降低。</p>
<p>与其关注哪些股票受欢迎或不受欢迎，不如更好地识别优秀的企业，然后判断价格是否合理。巴菲特评估伯克希尔的首选方式是通过其运营收益，这反映了其拥有的企业的表现，而不是考虑市场价值的变化。</p>
<p>随着伯克希尔不断发展其控制的企业并进行明智的收购，其运营收益也在不断复合增长。保险承保和投资收入是运营收益的主要驱动因素。承保收益随着收取的保费超过支付的索赔而增长，而投资收入则代表伯克希尔从未支付索赔的保费总额中获得的回报。</p>
<p>鉴于伯克希尔保险业务的规模和运营卓越，加上其其他控制的企业，该公司在未来稳步增长运营收益的道路上非常明确。</p>
<p>如前所述，伯克希尔还拥有巨额现金储备，可以用于进行战略收购、加速控制企业的增长或以诱人的价格购买股票。</p>
<p>另一个购买和持有伯克希尔的理由是，在新首席执行官格雷格·阿贝尔的领导下，公司可能会支付股息。巴菲特长期以来反对支付股息，因为他认为伯克希尔通过再投资利润而不是通过股息分配来为股东创造更好的回报。而且考虑到伯克希尔股票的长期表现，他的观点是正确的。但如果伯克希尔继续持有大量现金而不回购股票，那么支付股息对公司来说可能是合理的。</p>
<h2>出于正确的理由购买伯克希尔</h2>
<p>当伯克希尔还是一家较小的公司时，巴菲特能够发挥他的投资才能和创造力，通过收购 Geico 和以极低的价格购买可口可乐和美国运通等举措对业务产生重大影响。但如今，伯克希尔规模庞大，购买隐藏的、被低估的公司不会影响其股票表现。因此，伯克希尔在过去 10 年的大规模收购都是显而易见的机会——如苹果。随着巴菲特将接力棒传给阿贝尔，投资者应更多关注伯克希尔的运营优势，而不是将其视为股票挑选的对冲基金。</p>
<p>总的来说，如果你喜欢伯克希尔所拥有的资产、其现金状况以及竞争优势，那么伯克希尔是一个很好的投资选择。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

南方两倍做多伯克希尔

<p>自沃伦·巴菲特宣布退休以来，伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票下跌了 10%，表现不及标准普尔 500 指数。尽管如此，分析师们认为此次抛售是长期投资者的买入机会。伯克希尔强大的投资组合和创纪录的现金储备使其成为防御性股票。公司的运营收益历史上一直在复合增长，并且在新任首席执行官格雷格·阿贝尔的领导下，分红潜力也值得期待。投资者被鼓励关注公司的基本面，而不是短期市场波动</p>

<p><strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.98%)(BRK.B 0.98%) stock is down big since Warren Buffett announced that he would be stepping down as chief executive officer (but remain chairman) by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 0.98%)(BRK.B 0.98%) 的股票自沃伦·巴菲特宣布他将在年底辞去首席执行官职务（但仍将担任董事长）以来大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Here's why the sell-off is a buying opportunity for investors looking for an ultra-reliable blue chip stock to hold for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么此次抛售对寻求长期持有超可靠蓝筹股的投资者来说是一个买入机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM2MzkvYS1wZXJzb24taG9sZGluZy1hLXBpZWNlLW9mLXBhcGVyLXNpdHMtYXQtYS1kZXNrLWluLWZyb250LW9mLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItbW9uaXRvci5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823639%2Fa-person-holding-a-piece-of-paper-sits-at-a-desk-in-front-of-a-computer-monitor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Growth stocks are back in style</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>成长股重新回归</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire Hathaway stock was on a tear to start the year -- hitting an all-time high on May 2 -- the day before its annual shareholder meeting in Omaha.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票在年初表现强劲——在 5 月 2 日创下历史新高——就在其在奥马哈的年度股东大会前一天。</p>
</div><p>But between that meeting and June 30, Berkshire fell 10%, compared to a 9.1% gain in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.83%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在那次会议和 6 月 30 日之间，伯克希尔的股价下跌了 10%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC 0.83%) 则上涨了 9.1%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/13f7bb07bafd4e14fb0c158532730dd8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/13f7bb07bafd4e14fb0c158532730dd8.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BRK.B 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>That's a significant underperformance in a short period, to which Berkshire investors aren't accustomed. The stock has trounced the S&amp;P 500 over the long term, with a 19.9% compounded annual gain between 1965 and 2024, compared to 10.4% for the index with dividends reinvested.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短时间内，这一显著的表现不佳是伯克希尔投资者所不习惯的。长期以来，该股票的表现超过了标准普尔 500 指数，从 1965 年到 2024 年，年均复合增长率为 19.9%，而该指数（包括再投资的股息）为 10.4%。</p>
</div><p>Part of the reason Berkshire has been lagging the S&amp;P 500 is changing investment sentiment. When tariff turmoil was rippling through markets, some investors gravitated toward companies with business models that could hold up well even if these tensions escalated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔落后于标准普尔 500 指数的部分原因是投资情绪的变化。当关税动荡在市场上蔓延时，一些投资者倾向于选择那些即使在这些紧张局势升级时也能保持良好表现的公司。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire is an ultra-safe stock to own regardless of the market cycle. This is because of its portfolio of controlled assets -- from its insurance businesses to ownership of the BNSF railroad, utility giant Berkshire Hathaway Energy, manufacturing assets, services and retailing businesses, and its positions in public companies like <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>American Express</strong>, <strong>Coca-Cola</strong>, and more. But Berkshire has been extra cautious lately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论市场周期如何，伯克希尔都是一只超安全的股票。这是因为它拥有的资产组合——从保险业务到 BNSF 铁路、能源巨头伯克希尔哈撒韦能源、制造资产、服务和零售业务，以及在 <strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>美国运通</strong>、<strong>可口可乐</strong> 等公共公司的持股。但最近，伯克希尔变得更加谨慎。</p>
</div><p>In its first-quarter 2025 financial filings, Berkshire revealed a record $348 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term Treasury bills. During the shareholder meeting, Buffett said that Berkshire was holding more Treasury bills than he would like, but stressed the importance of being patient and waiting for excellent investment opportunities. In this vein, Berkshire has become even more of a defensive stock, so it makes sense that investors gravitated toward it when volatility was spiking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年第一季度的财务报告中，伯克希尔披露了创纪录的 3480 亿美元现金、现金等价物和短期国债。在股东大会上，巴菲特表示，伯克希尔持有的国债超过了他所希望的，但强调了耐心和等待优秀投资机会的重要性。在这种情况下，伯克希尔变得更加防御性，因此在波动性激增时，投资者倾向于选择它。</p>
</div><p>The news that Buffett is stepping down as CEO, combined with investors looking for riskier, higher-potential-reward stocks and less defensive names, may explain why Berkshire has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 by so much over the last two months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特辞去首席执行官职务的消息，加上投资者寻求风险更高、潜在回报更大的股票以及较少防御性的股票，可能解释了为什么伯克希尔在过去两个月中表现如此不佳。</p>
</div><h2>Berkshire is chock-full of compounding potential</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯克希尔充满复合潜力</h2>
</div><p>As a long-term investor, it's important to filter out the noise of market movements and understand that stock prices can do all sorts of things in the near term that have little to do with a long-term investment thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为长期投资者，重要的是要过滤市场波动的噪音，并理解股票价格在短期内可能会做出各种与长期投资理论无关的变化。</p>
</div><p>Earlier this year, Berkshire's stock price was driven by some investors rotating out of mega-cap growth stocks and into value stocks. But now, the opposite is happening, as some value stocks like Berkshire are selling off or underperforming the S&amp;P 500 while mega-cap growth stocks like <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong> are hitting all-time highs. It's not that Nvidia's and Microsoft's business models have changed between now and a few months ago. Rather, investors are willing to pay a premium price for future earnings growth, because the risk of tariffs slowing that growth has gone down considerably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年早些时候，伯克希尔的股价受到一些投资者从大型成长股转向价值股的推动。但现在，情况正好相反，一些价值股如伯克希尔正在抛售或表现不佳，而大型成长股如 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 则创下历史新高。这并不是说英伟达和微软的商业模式在几个月前和现在发生了变化。相反，投资者愿意为未来的盈利增长支付溢价，因为关税减缓这一增长的风险大大降低。</p>
</div><p>Instead of focusing on which stocks are in and out of favor, a better approach is to identify excellent businesses and then decide if the price is reasonable. Buffett's preferred way to value Berkshire is by its operating earnings, which reflect how the businesses it owns are performing, rather than accounting for changes in market values.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与其关注哪些股票受欢迎或不受欢迎，不如更好地识别优秀的企业，然后判断价格是否合理。巴菲特评估伯克希尔的首选方式是通过其运营收益，这反映了其拥有的企业的表现，而不是考虑市场价值的变化。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire's operating earnings have compounded over time as it has grown its controlled businesses and made savvy acquisitions. Insurance underwriting and investment income have been massive drivers of operating earnings. Underwriting earnings grow as premiums collected outpace claims paid, and investment income represents the return Berkshire gets on the sum of premiums collected that haven't been paid out in claims.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着伯克希尔不断发展其控制的企业并进行明智的收购，其运营收益也在不断复合增长。保险承保和投资收入是运营收益的主要驱动因素。承保收益随着收取的保费超过支付的索赔而增长，而投资收入则代表伯克希尔从未支付索赔的保费总额中获得的回报。</p>
</div><p>Given the size and operational excellence of Berkshire's insurance businesses, paired with its other controlled businesses, the company has a clear path toward steadily growing operating earnings over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于伯克希尔保险业务的规模和运营卓越，加上其其他控制的企业，该公司在未来稳步增长运营收益的道路上非常明确。</p>
</div><p>As mentioned, Berkshire also has a massive cash position that it can use to make a strategic acquisition, accelerate growth in a controlled business, or buy shares in stocks at compelling prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，伯克希尔还拥有巨额现金储备，可以用于进行战略收购、加速控制企业的增长或以诱人的价格购买股票。</p>
</div><p>Another reason to buy and hold Berkshire is the potential for the company to pay dividends under its new CEO, Greg Abel. Buffett has long been against the idea of paying dividends, because he believes that Berkshire can earn a better return for shareholders by reinvesting profits rather than passing them along through dividends. And he's been right, given the long-term performance of Berkshire stock. But if Berkshire continues to hold a ton of cash and not buy back stock, it could make sense for the company to pay a dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个购买和持有伯克希尔的理由是，在新首席执行官格雷格·阿贝尔的领导下，公司可能会支付股息。巴菲特长期以来反对支付股息，因为他认为伯克希尔通过再投资利润而不是通过股息分配来为股东创造更好的回报。而且考虑到伯克希尔股票的长期表现，他的观点是正确的。但如果伯克希尔继续持有大量现金而不回购股票，那么支付股息对公司来说可能是合理的。</p>
</div><h2>Buying Berkshire for the right reasons</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>出于正确的理由购买伯克希尔</h2>
</div><p>When Berkshire was a smaller company, Buffett was able to flex his investing prowess and creativity to have a meaningful effect on the business through moves like acquiring Geico and buying Coca-Cola and American Express at dirt cheap prices. But today, Berkshire is so big that buying hidden-gem, undervalued companies wouldn't affect its stock performance. So Berkshire's big buys over the last 10 years have been opportunities hiding in plain sight -- like Apple. And with Buffett passing the torch to Abel, investors should focus more on Berkshire's operational advantages, rather than treating the company like a stock-picking hedge fund.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当伯克希尔还是一家较小的公司时，巴菲特能够发挥他的投资才能和创造力，通过收购 Geico 和以极低的价格购买可口可乐和美国运通等举措对业务产生重大影响。但如今，伯克希尔规模庞大，购买隐藏的、被低估的公司不会影响其股票表现。因此，伯克希尔在过去 10 年的大规模收购都是显而易见的机会——如苹果。随着巴菲特将接力棒传给阿贝尔，投资者应更多关注伯克希尔的运营优势，而不是将其视为股票挑选的对冲基金。</p>
</div><p>All told, Berkshire is a great buy if you like the assets it owns, its cash position, and its competitive advantages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，如果你喜欢伯克希尔所拥有的资产、其现金状况以及竞争优势，那么伯克希尔是一个很好的投资选择。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Berkshire Hathaway Stock, Even Though It's Down 10% Since Warren Buffett Announced Retiring as CEO?

- 伯克希尔哈撒韦股价因巴菲特将辞任 CEO 而下跌 10%。  
- 该公司持有 3480 亿美元现金，显示出其防御性投资策略。  
- 长期来看，伯克希尔的运营收益有望持续增长，适合长期投资。

尽管沃伦·巴菲特宣布退休担任 CEO 后伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票已经下跌了 10%，你是否应该考虑购买伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票？