<p><strong>Lemonade</strong>(LMND 0.88%) 自上市以来经历了爆炸式增长，其股价在过去一年中上涨了超过 160%。这家保险科技公司取得了一些重大进展，尽管仍然存在风险。让我们看看五年后它可能会在哪里，以及现在是否是购买 Lemonade 股票的好时机。</p>
<h2>Lemonade 目前的状况</h2>
<p>截至七月，Lemonade 已经成立 10 年，这十年相当不平凡。该公司利用人工智能 (AI) 颠覆传统保险，为保单持有人提供更好的产品。它在整个业务中使用数字化流程和人工智能，包括通过聊天机器人来引导客户和评估索赔。虽然如今许多公司都在使用人工智能，这听起来可能不那么令人印象深刻，但 Lemonade 多年来一直在这样做。它依赖数据、机器学习和不断改进的算法来确保准确性，减少人工干预，为普通保单持有人消除了许多麻烦和困扰。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM1MDkva2lkcy13aXRoLWEtbGVtb25hZGUtc3RhbmQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM1MDkva2lkcy13aXRoLWEtbGVtb25hZGUtc3RhbmQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>这被证明是一种受欢迎的替代方案，Lemonade 正以快速的速度吸引客户。截至 2025 年第一季度末，Lemonade 拥有超过 250 万客户，同比增长 21%。每位客户的保费也在增加，第一季度同比增长 4%，达到 396 美元。综合来看，这导致了 Lemonade 的在保保费 (IFP) 增加，这是其首选的收入指标。第一季度首次超过 10 亿美元，同比增长 27%。自上市以来，Lemonade 一直报告强劲增长，但在过去六个季度中加速增长。</p>
<p>与许多年轻公司一样，Lemonade 目前尚未盈利。作为一家保险公司，它用超越收入和净收入的指标来衡量其进展和成功。对于保险公司来说，最关键的盈利能力指标之一是损失率，即它收取的保费与支付的保单索赔之间的比例，而 Lemonade 在这方面一直在挣扎。然而，最近它似乎朝着正确的方向发展，损失率正在下降。第一季度的损失率为 78%，比去年下降了一个百分点，过去 12 个月的损失率为 73%，与 2024 年第四季度持平，低于公司的短期目标 75%。这一切都很好。</p>
<p>这一令人难以置信的表现让市场对持续的净亏损的情绪有所好转。第一季度的净亏损为 6200 万美元，较去年同期的 4700 万美元更糟。</p>
<h2>为未来而建设</h2>
<p>投资 Lemonade 的理念和股票实际上是对其颠覆传统保险能力的押注。首席执行官 Dan Schreiber 认为这是理所当然的事情，它将会发生，Lemonade 的业务超越其传统竞争对手只是时间问题。</p>
<p>Schreiber 指出，尽管现在人们普遍认为所有保险公司都在使用人工智能，但实际上并非如此。许多大型传统巨头采取的是观望态度，全面切换到 Lemonade 所拥有的所有部分相互连接和沟通的数字化基础并不简单。这些公司仍然在很大程度上依赖外部销售代理，后者带来了 62% 的财产和意外险保费，这使得 Lemonade 在这场竞争中占据了优势。</p>
<p>Schreiber 认为，公司的人工智能技术在未来五到十年将变得更加强大，他解释说</p>
<blockquote>
<p>在本十年结束之前，那些以人工智能的速度前进的公司会发现，2025 年花费 100 万美元购买一支工程团队的力量，到 2030 年将相当于 90,000 名工程师。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>随着这一变化的发生，Lemonade 处于领先竞争对手的良好位置。这也将有助于它实现盈利的目标。许多公司已经在重组其劳动力，以便通过人工智能完成更多工作。</p>
<p>如今，Lemonade 仍处于扩张阶段，花费大量资金进行营销以吸引更多客户。预计最终，这些客户带来的收入将超过公司为获取他们而花费的资金。由于依赖人工智能系统，其其他运营成本保持不变，并且由于这是保险，只要 Lemonade 能够给客户留下深刻印象并留住他们，每位新客户都具有终身价值，因为他们会续保。</p>
<h2>现在是购买的时机吗？</h2>
<p>管理层预计到 2026 年底将报告正的调整后息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。这将是一个里程碑，但华尔街仍然预计明年的每股净亏损为 1.97 美元。管理层的目标是在 2027 年及以后实现正的净收入。</p>
<p>如果事情按这个方向发展，股东将会受益。即使在此过程中出现波折，五年后，Lemonade 看起来将会更大且盈利，其股票也应该反映这一点。</p>

LMND

<p>Lemonade (LMND) 自上市以来经历了显著增长，过去一年股价上涨超过 160%。这家以人工智能驱动的保险公司客户数量已超过 250 万，并实现了超过 10 亿美元的有效保费。尽管在第一季度报告了 6200 万美元的净亏损，但其亏损率正在改善。首席执行官 Dan Schreiber 认为，随着人工智能技术的进步，Lemonade 将超越传统保险公司。管理层的目标是到 2026 年实现正的调整后 EBITDA，到 2027 年实现净利润，这使其成为一个潜在的投资机会</p>

<p><strong>Lemonade</strong>(LMND 0.88%) has experienced explosive growth since going public, and its stock is climbing, up more than 160% during the past year. The insurance technology company has made some serious progress, although there are still risks. Let's see where it might be five years from now and whether it's a good time to buy Lemonade stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Lemonade</strong>(LMND 0.88%) 自上市以来经历了爆炸式增长，其股价在过去一年中上涨了超过 160%。这家保险科技公司取得了一些重大进展，尽管仍然存在风险。让我们看看五年后它可能会在哪里，以及现在是否是购买 Lemonade 股票的好时机。</p>
</div><h2>Where Lemonade is now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lemonade 目前的状况</h2>
</div><p>Lemonade is 10 years old as of July, and it's been quite a decade. The company uses artificial intelligence (AI) to disrupt traditional insurance and offer a better product for policy holders. It was built using digital processes and AI throughout its business, including having chatbots onboard customers and assess claims. That may not sound so impressive today, as AI becomes the norm for many companies, but Lemonade has been doing this for years. It relies on data, machine learning, and continually improving algorithms to get things right, cutting out human intervention and lots of headaches and hassle for the average policyholder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至七月，Lemonade 已经成立 10 年，这十年相当不平凡。该公司利用人工智能 (AI) 颠覆传统保险，为保单持有人提供更好的产品。它在整个业务中使用数字化流程和人工智能，包括通过聊天机器人来引导客户和评估索赔。虽然如今许多公司都在使用人工智能，这听起来可能不那么令人印象深刻，但 Lemonade 多年来一直在这样做。它依赖数据、机器学习和不断改进的算法来确保准确性，减少人工干预，为普通保单持有人消除了许多麻烦和困扰。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM1MDkva2lkcy13aXRoLWEtbGVtb25hZGUtc3RhbmQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823509%2Fkids-with-a-lemonade-stand.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>This is proving to be a popular alternative, and Lemonade is attracting customers at a rapid pace. It had more than 2.5 million customers as of the end of the 2025 first quarter, a 21% year-over-year increase. The premium per customer is also increasing, up 4% year over year in Q1 to $396. Together, that's leading to increased in-force premium (IFP), Lemonade's preferred top-line metric. It surpassed $1 billion in Q1 for the first time, up 27% from last year. Lemonade has been reporting strong growth since it went public, but it has accelerated the past six quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这被证明是一种受欢迎的替代方案，Lemonade 正以快速的速度吸引客户。截至 2025 年第一季度末，Lemonade 拥有超过 250 万客户，同比增长 21%。每位客户的保费也在增加，第一季度同比增长 4%，达到 396 美元。综合来看，这导致了 Lemonade 的在保保费 (IFP) 增加，这是其首选的收入指标。第一季度首次超过 10 亿美元，同比增长 27%。自上市以来，Lemonade 一直报告强劲增长，但在过去六个季度中加速增长。</p>
</div><p>As with many young companies, Lemonade isn't profitable. As an insurance company, it measures its progress and success with metrics beyond revenue and net income. One of the most crucial profitability metrics for an insurance company is the loss ratio, or how much it collects in premiums versus paying policy claims, and Lemonade has been struggling here. Recently, however, it looks like it's going in the right direction, which is down. The Q1 loss ratio was 78%, down one percentage point from last year, and the trailing-12-month loss ratio was 73%, in line with 2024's Q4 and below the company's short-term target of 75%. All good there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与许多年轻公司一样，Lemonade 目前尚未盈利。作为一家保险公司，它用超越收入和净收入的指标来衡量其进展和成功。对于保险公司来说，最关键的盈利能力指标之一是损失率，即它收取的保费与支付的保单索赔之间的比例，而 Lemonade 在这方面一直在挣扎。然而，最近它似乎朝着正确的方向发展，损失率正在下降。第一季度的损失率为 78%，比去年下降了一个百分点，过去 12 个月的损失率为 73%，与 2024 年第四季度持平，低于公司的短期目标 75%。这一切都很好。</p>
</div><p>This incredible performance has been lightening the market's mood about the continued net losses. The net loss was $62 million in Q1, worse than $47 million a year earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一令人难以置信的表现让市场对持续的净亏损的情绪有所好转。第一季度的净亏损为 6200 万美元，较去年同期的 4700 万美元更糟。</p>
</div><h2>Building for the future</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为未来而建设</h2>
</div><p>Buying into Lemonade's thesis and stock is really a bet on its ability to disrupt traditional insurance. Chief Executive Officer Dan Schreiber sees that as a given and that it will happen, and it's just a matter of time before Lemonade's business outperforms its legacy competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资 Lemonade 的理念和股票实际上是对其颠覆传统保险能力的押注。首席执行官 Dan Schreiber 认为这是理所当然的事情，它将会发生，Lemonade 的业务超越其传统竞争对手只是时间问题。</p>
</div><p>Schreiber notes that, although it's perceived that all insurance companies are using AI today, that's not actually the case. Many of the large, traditional giants are taking a wait-and-see approach, and it's not so simple to switch over all of their systems to the kind of digital substrate where all parts connect and communicate that Lemonade has. Those companies still heavily rely on outside sales agents, who bring in 62% of all property and casualty premiums, giving Lemonade a leg up in this game.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Schreiber 指出，尽管现在人们普遍认为所有保险公司都在使用人工智能，但实际上并非如此。许多大型传统巨头采取的是观望态度，全面切换到 Lemonade 所拥有的所有部分相互连接和沟通的数字化基础并不简单。这些公司仍然在很大程度上依赖外部销售代理，后者带来了 62% 的财产和意外险保费，这使得 Lemonade 在这场竞争中占据了优势。</p>
</div><p>Schreiber thinks that the company's AI technology will be even more potent in the next five to 10 years, and he explains that</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Schreiber 认为，公司的人工智能技术在未来五到十年将变得更加强大，他解释说</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>before the decade is out, those that are moving at the pace of AI will find that the same $1 million that buys one squad's worth of engineering firepower in 2025 will deliver the equivalent of 90,000 engineers in 2030.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>在本十年结束之前，那些以人工智能的速度前进的公司会发现，2025 年花费 100 万美元购买一支工程团队的力量，到 2030 年将相当于 90,000 名工程师。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Lemonade is well positioned to jump ahead of the competition as that happens. It will also help it on its journey to profitability. Many companies are already restructuring their workforces as they get more done with AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着这一变化的发生，Lemonade 处于领先竞争对手的良好位置。这也将有助于它实现盈利的目标。许多公司已经在重组其劳动力，以便通过人工智能完成更多工作。</p>
</div><p>Today, Lemonade is still in scale mode, spending a lot on marketing to grab more customers. The expectation is that eventually, the revenue from these customers will be more than the money the company is spending on getting them. Its other operational costs have remained constant due to its reliance on AI systems, and because this is insurance, each new customer has lifetime value as they renew their policies, so long as Lemonade can impress them and keep them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，Lemonade 仍处于扩张阶段，花费大量资金进行营销以吸引更多客户。预计最终，这些客户带来的收入将超过公司为获取他们而花费的资金。由于依赖人工智能系统，其其他运营成本保持不变，并且由于这是保险，只要 Lemonade 能够给客户留下深刻印象并留住他们，每位新客户都具有终身价值，因为他们会续保。</p>
</div><h2>Is now the time to buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是购买的时机吗？</h2>
</div><p>Management expects to report positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by the end of 2026. That would be a milestone, but Wall Street is still expecting a net loss of $1.97 per share next year. Management is shooting for positive net income by the end of 2027 and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层预计到 2026 年底将报告正的调整后息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。这将是一个里程碑，但华尔街仍然预计明年的每股净亏损为 1.97 美元。管理层的目标是在 2027 年及以后实现正的净收入。</p>
</div><p>If that's the way things go, shareholders are in for a treat. Even if there are hiccups along the way, it does look like five years from now, Lemonade will be bigger and profitable, and its stock should reflect that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果事情按这个方向发展，股东将会受益。即使在此过程中出现波折，五年后，Lemonade 看起来将会更大且盈利，其股票也应该反映这一点。</p>
</div>

五年后 Lemonade 的股票将会如何表现？