<p><strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG 0.51%)(GOOGL 0.54%) 在过去一年中一直是市场上最被厌恶的大型科技股之一。尽管其业绩持续稳健，但市场对字母表当前的业务并不尊重，原因在于对其未来可能发生的事情的恐惧。主要问题围绕着字母表的传统业务（谷歌搜索）在生成性人工智能崛起的情况下将如何表现。</p><p>投资者假设谷歌搜索的收入将会暴跌，从而拖累字母表的股票。然而，这并没有发生，我对此表示怀疑。我认为字母表可以通过几个因素的结合在未来两年内为股东带来巨额回报。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0b45e5972b352226d44339bad8a63ae0?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/0b45e5972b352226d44339bad8a63ae0"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="uruqy146">字母表的股票远低于同行的价格</h2><p>字母表的前瞻市盈率（P/E）显著低于 “七大巨头” 中的其他成员（<strong>特斯拉</strong> 已从此图表中移除，因为其前瞻市盈率超过 160 倍）。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/4d9be4094e6112b9e680748f1d84376b?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="524" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/4d9be4094e6112b9e680748f1d84376b"/></figure><p>GOOGL 前瞻市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p><p>现在，一些股票确实值得溢价估值，例如 <strong>英伟达</strong>，因为它的收入和盈利以快速的速度增长。然而，我认为其他公司，如 <strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>苹果</strong>，由于其增长率，几乎不值得如此高的溢价。</p><p>在第一季度，字母表的收入和每股收益（EPS）增长率都相当强劲（我在此图表中省略了英伟达，因为其快速增长扭曲了数据）。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/1bcf47ad1d7f74b08cdd9828bec0f642?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="644" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/1bcf47ad1d7f74b08cdd9828bec0f642"/></figure><p>GOOGL 每季度营业收入（同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts</p><p>字母表的收入增长处于中游，但更接近第二名而非第四名。此外，其每股收益增长是五家公司中第二好的。</p><p>如果我仅向你展示这些信息，你会假设字母表的估值倍数应该处于该组的中高端。然而，它的交易价格约为该组第二便宜成员 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的 50% 折扣。</p><p>那么，如果字母表获得一个合理的倍数，会发生什么呢？</p><h2 id="e28u2v7et">如果字母表的估值上升到平均水平，可能会带来巨额收益</h2><p>分析中的其余四家公司（微软、苹果、Meta Platforms 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>）的前瞻市盈率平均为 31.3 倍。如果市场条件保持不变，字母表的市盈率上升到 31.3 倍以达到平均估值，股票将上涨 68%。</p><p>现在，这 68% 并不包括字母表在未来几年内将经历的任何增长；这只是为了达到与同行相同的估值水平。这将是一个艰巨的任务，因为市场似乎确信字母表将面临一些挑战。然而，我认为它低估了谷歌的持久力，以及普通人将非常满意地使用谷歌的人工智能搜索概述来构建他们的人工智能模型。这应该使谷歌保持在其竞争的顶端，并使其在可预见的未来继续以稳定的两位数速度增长收入。</p><p>市场可能需要几年时间才能对字母表股票恢复理智，但如果这样做，它将显著超越表现。作为另一个有趣的事实，如果字母表在今天的价格下被赋予 31.3 倍的前瞻市盈率，它将与微软并列成为全球市值第二大的公司。</p><p>字母表似乎是今天值得购买的顶级大型科技公司之一。它的业绩与同行一样出色（如果不是更好），但交易价格却大幅折扣。如果字母表能够继续发布强劲的业绩，市场最终会意识到字母表值得与同行享有相同的溢价。通过今天的购买，你可以利用这一大幅折扣，并在字母表的估值上升以匹配同行时享受显著的回报。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>Alphabet 的股票目前相较于其同行被低估，尽管其收入和盈利增长强劲，但交易价格仍显著折扣。分析师预测，如果 Alphabet 的估值与其竞争对手的平均水平相符，股票可能上涨 68%。这一潜在增长并未考虑未来的盈利增长，这表明 Alphabet 在未来两年内可能会带来可观的回报。市场可能低估了 Alphabet 的韧性及其在以人工智能驱动的搜索领域中保持强大地位的能力</p>

<p><strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.51%)(GOOGL 0.54%) has been one of the most hated big tech stocks in the market over the past year. Despite posting consistently solid results, the market doesn't respect Alphabet's current business out of fear of what <em>could</em> happen to it. The primary question revolves around how Alphabet's legacy business (Google Search) will fare with the rise of generative AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>字母表</strong>(GOOG 0.51%)(GOOGL 0.54%) 在过去一年中一直是市场上最被厌恶的大型科技股之一。尽管其业绩持续稳健，但市场对字母表当前的业务并不尊重，原因在于对其未来可能发生的事情的恐惧。主要问题围绕着字母表的传统业务（谷歌搜索）在生成性人工智能崛起的情况下将如何表现。</p>
</div><p>Investors are assuming that Google Search revenue will tumble, taking Alphabet's stock with it. However, that hasn't happened, and I doubt it will. I think Alphabet can deliver shareholders monster returns over the next two years through a combination of a few factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者假设谷歌搜索的收入将会暴跌，从而拖累字母表的股票。然而，这并没有发生，我对此表示怀疑。我认为字母表可以通过几个因素的结合在未来两年内为股东带来巨额回报。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjI5NzQvcGVyc29uLWV4YW1pbmluZy1hLWdyYXBoLW9uLXRoZWlyLWxhcHRvcC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F822974%2Fperson-examining-a-graph-on-their-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet's stock is far cheaper than its peers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>字母表的股票远低于同行的价格</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet trades at a significant discount to other members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; cohort on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) basis ( <strong>Tesla</strong> has been removed from this chart because it trades for more than 160 times forward earnings).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表的前瞻市盈率（P/E）显著低于 “七大巨头” 中的其他成员（<strong>特斯拉</strong> 已从此图表中移除，因为其前瞻市盈率超过 160 倍）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b6f56a06e2c7b9ef53f621a6ed9738f2.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b6f56a06e2c7b9ef53f621a6ed9738f2.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 前瞻市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Now, some stocks deserve a premium valuation, such as <strong>Nvidia</strong>, because it is growing its revenue and earnings at a rapid pace. However, I'd argue that other companies, like <strong>Microsoft</strong> and <strong>Apple</strong>, don't deserve nearly the premium due to their growth rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，一些股票确实值得溢价估值，例如 <strong>英伟达</strong>，因为它的收入和盈利以快速的速度增长。然而，我认为其他公司，如 <strong>微软</strong> 和 <strong>苹果</strong>，由于其增长率，几乎不值得如此高的溢价。</p>
</div><p>During the first quarter, Alphabet's growth rates, both in terms of revenue and earnings per share (EPS), were quite strong (I omitted Nvidia from this chart due to its rapid growth skewing the data).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，字母表的收入和每股收益（EPS）增长率都相当强劲（我在此图表中省略了英伟达，因为其快速增长扭曲了数据）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ac2c97303a3baae4753474f1bf712e82.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ac2c97303a3baae4753474f1bf712e82.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 每季度营业收入（同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Alphabet's revenue growth was in the middle of the pack, but much closer to second place than it was fourth place. Additionally, its EPS growth was the second-best of the five companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表的收入增长处于中游，但更接近第二名而非第四名。此外，其每股收益增长是五家公司中第二好的。</p>
</div><p>If I presented you with this information alone, you'd assume that the multiple Alphabet assigned should be in the middle to high end of this cohort's range. However, it trades at about a 50% discount to the second-cheapest member of the cohort, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我仅向你展示这些信息，你会假设字母表的估值倍数应该处于该组的中高端。然而，它的交易价格约为该组第二便宜成员 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的 50% 折扣。</p>
</div><p>So, what could happen if Alphabet receives a respectable multiple?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，如果字母表获得一个合理的倍数，会发生什么呢？</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet could provide monster gains if it rises to an average valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如果字母表的估值上升到平均水平，可能会带来巨额收益</h2>
</div><p>The remaining four companies in the analysis (Microsoft, Apple, Meta Platforms, and <strong>Amazon</strong>) trade for an average of 31.3 times forward earnings. Should market conditions remain the same and Alphabet climb to 31.3 times forward earnings to be at the average valuation, the stock would rise by 68%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析中的其余四家公司（微软、苹果、Meta Platforms 和 <strong>亚马逊</strong>）的前瞻市盈率平均为 31.3 倍。如果市场条件保持不变，字母表的市盈率上升到 31.3 倍以达到平均估值，股票将上涨 68%。</p>
</div><p>Now, that 68% doesn't include any growth that Alphabet will experience over the next few years; that's just for reaching the same valuation level as its peers. This will be a tall task to accomplish, as the market appears to be convinced that Alphabet will face some challenges ahead. However, I think it's underestimating the staying power that Google has and how the average person will be perfectly content using Google's AI search overviews for their AI model. This should keep Google at the top of its game and allow it to continue growing its revenue at a steady double-digit pace for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，这 68% 并不包括字母表在未来几年内将经历的任何增长；这只是为了达到与同行相同的估值水平。这将是一个艰巨的任务，因为市场似乎确信字母表将面临一些挑战。然而，我认为它低估了谷歌的持久力，以及普通人将非常满意地使用谷歌的人工智能搜索概述来构建他们的人工智能模型。这应该使谷歌保持在其竞争的顶端，并使其在可预见的未来继续以稳定的两位数速度增长收入。</p>
</div><p>It may take a few years for the market to come to its senses regarding Alphabet stock, but it will be a significant outperformer if it does. As another fun fact, if Alphabet were assigned a 31.3 times forward earnings multiple at today's prices, it would be tied with Microsoft as the second-largest company in the world by market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场可能需要几年时间才能对字母表股票恢复理智，但如果这样做，它将显著超越表现。作为另一个有趣的事实，如果字母表在今天的价格下被赋予 31.3 倍的前瞻市盈率，它将与微软并列成为全球市值第二大的公司。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet appears to be one of the top big tech companies to buy today. It's posting just as good as results (if not better) than its peers, yet trades at a huge discount. If Alphabet can continue posting strong results, the market will eventually come around to see that Alphabet is worthy of the same premium as its peers. By buying today, you can take advantage of a large discount and enjoy significant returns as Alphabet's valuation rises to match that of its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表似乎是今天值得购买的顶级大型科技公司之一。它的业绩与同行一样出色（如果不是更好），但交易价格却大幅折扣。如果字母表能够继续发布强劲的业绩，市场最终会意识到字母表值得与同行享有相同的溢价。通过今天的购买，你可以利用这一大幅折扣，并在字母表的估值上升以匹配同行时享受显著的回报。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Alphabet's Stock Will Deliver Monster Performance Over the Next 2 Years

- Alphabet 股票在市场上被低估，尽管业绩稳健。  
- 如果其市盈率回升至同行平均水平，股价可能上涨 68%。  
- 投资者可借此机会获取显著回报。  

预测：Alphabet 的股票将在未来两年内实现强劲表现