<p>德国法兰克福（美联社）——美国最大的贸易伙伴欧盟是等待周一消息的实体之一，消息是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普是否会对他们的商品征收惩罚性关税，经济学家警告称，这一举措将对大西洋两岸的公司和消费者产生影响。</p>
<p>获取 <strong>Campari Group</strong> 的提醒：</p>
<p>特朗普在四月初对所有欧盟制造的产品征收 20% 的进口税，作为一系列针对与美国存在贸易不平衡的国家的关税措施的一部分。在国家特定的关税生效几个小时后，他将其暂停至 7 月 9 日，标准税率为 10%，以平息金融市场并留出谈判时间。</p>
<p>然而，针对欧盟在贸易谈判中的立场表示不满，特朗普表示他将把对欧洲出口的关税提高到 50%。如此高的税率可能会使从法国奶酪、意大利皮革制品到德国电子产品和西班牙药品的所有商品在美国变得更加昂贵。</p>
<p>欧盟的 27 个成员国作为一个单一经济体运作，表示其领导人希望与特朗普政府达成协议。如果没有达成协议，欧盟表示准备对数百种美国商品征收关税，范围包括牛肉、汽车零部件、啤酒和波音飞机。</p>
<p>以下是关于美国与欧盟之间贸易的重要信息。</p>
<p>美欧贸易规模庞大</p>
<p>在贸易谈判中涉及大量资金。</p>
<p>欧盟的执行委员会将美国与欧盟之间的贸易描述为 “世界上最重要的商业关系”。根据欧盟统计局 Eurostat 的数据，2024 年欧盟与美国的商品和服务贸易总值达到 1.7 万亿欧元（2 万亿美元），平均每天 4.6 亿欧元。</p>
<p>美国对欧洲最大的出口商品是原油，其次是药品、飞机、汽车以及医疗和诊断设备。欧洲对美国最大的出口商品是药品、汽车、飞机、化学品、医疗仪器以及葡萄酒和烈酒。</p>
<p>欧盟对美国的出口量超过美国对欧盟的出口量</p>
<p>特朗普抱怨欧盟在商品贸易中有 1980 亿欧元（2330 亿美元）的贸易顺差，这表明美国人从欧洲企业购买的商品比反向购买的要多。然而，美国公司通过在云计算、旅行预订以及法律和金融服务等服务领域的销售超越欧盟，填补了一部分差距。</p>
<p>美国的服务顺差使得美国与欧盟的贸易赤字降至 500 亿欧元（590 亿美元），这占美国与欧盟整体贸易的不到 3%。</p>
<p>双方之间存在哪些分歧？</p>
<p>在特朗普重新上任之前，美国和欧盟维持着一般合作的贸易关系，双方的关税水平较低。美国对欧洲商品的平均税率为 1.47%，而欧盟对美国商品的平均税率为 1.35%。</p>
<p>但自二月份以来，白宫对这一长期盟友采取了更加不友好的态度。除了特朗普提出的对欧洲商品的波动关税外，欧盟还受到其政府对钢铁和铝征收 50% 关税以及对进口汽车和零部件征收 25% 税的影响。</p>
<p>特朗普政府官员提出了一系列希望解决的问题，包括农业壁垒，例如欧盟的健康法规，其中包括对氯洗鸡和激素处理牛肉的禁令。</p>
<p>特朗普还批评了欧洲的增值税，欧盟国家在销售时征收的税率在 17% 到 27% 之间。但许多经济学家认为增值税是贸易中性的，因为它适用于国内商品和服务以及进口商品。由于国家政府通过立法设定税收，欧盟表示在贸易谈判中不会讨论这些问题。</p>
<p>“在法规、消费者标准和税收等棘手问题上，欧盟及其成员国无法让步，” 德国贝伦贝格银行首席经济学家霍尔格·施米丁说。“他们无法根据美国的要求改变欧盟庞大内部市场的运作方式，而这些要求往往源于对欧盟运作的错误理解。”</p>
<p>提高关税的潜在影响是什么？</p>
<p>经济学家和公司表示，提高关税将意味着美国消费者在进口商品上的价格上涨。进口商必须决定在降低利润的情况下吸收多少额外税费，以及将多少转嫁给客户。</p>
<p>美国的梅赛德斯 - 奔驰经销商表示，他们将 “保持 2025 年车型价格不变，直到另行通知。” 这家德国汽车制造商由于在阿拉巴马州图斯卡卢萨生产 35% 的梅赛德斯 - 奔驰汽车而享有部分关税保护，但该公司表示预计未来几年价格将经历 “显著上涨”。</p>
<p>意大利葡萄酒和烈酒生产商 Campari Group 的首席执行官西蒙·亨特告诉投资分析师，某些产品的价格可能会因竞争对手的行为而上涨或保持不变。如果竞争对手提高价格，该公司可能会决定在 Skyy 伏特加或 Aperol 开胃酒上保持价格，以获得市场份额，亨特表示。</p>
<p>特朗普认为，让外国公司在美国销售变得更加困难是刺激美国制造业复苏的一种方式。许多公司对此想法表示不屑，或表示这需要数年才能带来积极的经济效益。然而，一些公司已经愿意将部分生产转移到美国。</p>
<p>总部位于法国的奢侈品集团 LVMH，其品牌包括蒂芙尼、路易威登、克里斯汀·迪奥和酩悦香槟，亿万富翁首席执行官伯纳德·阿尔诺在公司四月份的年度会议上表示，可能会将部分生产转移到美国。</p>
<p>阿尔诺曾参加特朗普的就职典礼，呼吁欧洲达成基于互惠让步的协议。</p>
<p>“如果我们最终面临高关税……我们将被迫增加在美国的生产以避免关税，” 阿尔诺说。“如果欧洲未能进行明智的谈判，这将是许多公司的后果……如果真是这样，那将是布鲁塞尔的错。”</p>
<p>许多人预计特朗普会放弃他最激进的要求。</p>
<p>一些预测表明，如果谈判失败，美国经济将面临更大风险。根据布鲁塞尔智库 Bruegel 的研究评估，如果特朗普对来自欧洲的进口商品征收 10% 到 25% 的关税，欧盟将损失 0.3% 的国内生产总值，而美国 GDP 将下降 0.7%。</p>
<p>考虑到一些问题的复杂性，双方可能在周三的最后期限之前仅达成框架协议。这可能会保留 10% 的基础关税，以及汽车、钢铁和铝的关税，直到正式贸易协议的细节得到解决。</p>
<p>贸易谈判最可能的结果是 “美国将同意一些交易，其中撤回其超过 10% 的 ‘报复性’ 关税的最糟糕威胁，” 施米丁说。“然而，达到这一目标的道路可能会崎岖不平。”</p>
<p>美国对某些商品提供豁免可能会为达成协议铺平道路。欧盟可以提出放宽白宫视为贸易壁垒的一些法规。</p>
<p>“虽然特朗普可能会将这样的结果视为对他的 ‘胜利’，但他保护主义的最终受害者当然主要是美国消费者，” 施米丁说。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在 Campari Group 吗？</h2>
<p>在考虑 Campari Group 之前，你会想听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐在更广泛的市场注意到之前购买……而 Campari Group 并不在名单上。</p>
<p>虽然 Campari Group 目前在分析师中被评为持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>

<p>欧洲联盟正在等待美国总统特朗普对可能会显著影响跨大西洋贸易的关税做出决定。特朗普提议对欧盟商品征收 20% 的进口税，可能会上升至 50%，这将影响美国各种产品的价格。欧盟与美国之间存在贸易顺差，如果谈判失败，欧盟准备对美国商品征收关税进行报复。美欧贸易关系的价值约为 2 万亿美元，使其成为全球最大的商业关系。经济学家警告称，更高的关税将导致美国消费者价格上涨</p>

<p>FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — America’s largest trade partner, the European Union, is among the entities awaiting word Monday on whether U.S. President Donald Trump will impose punishing tariffs on their goods, a move economists have warned would have repercussions for companies and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德国法兰克福（美联社）——美国最大的贸易伙伴欧盟是等待周一消息的实体之一，消息是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普是否会对他们的商品征收惩罚性关税，经济学家警告称，这一举措将对大西洋两岸的公司和消费者产生影响。</p>
</div><p>Get <strong>Campari Group</strong> alerts:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取 <strong>Campari Group</strong> 的提醒：</p>
</div><p>Trump imposed a 20% import tax on all EU-made products in early April as part of a set of tariffs targeting countries with which the United States has a trade imbalance. Hours after the nation-specific duties took effect, he put them on hold until July 9 at a standard rate of 10% to quiet financial markets and allow time for negotiations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普在四月初对所有欧盟制造的产品征收 20% 的进口税，作为一系列针对与美国存在贸易不平衡的国家的关税措施的一部分。在国家特定的关税生效几个小时后，他将其暂停至 7 月 9 日，标准税率为 10%，以平息金融市场并留出谈判时间。</p>
</div><p>Expressing displeasure the EU's stance in trade talks, however, the president said he would jack up the tariff rate for European exports to 50%. A rate that high could make everything from French cheese and Italian leather goods to German electronics and Spanish pharmaceuticals much more expensive in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，针对欧盟在贸易谈判中的立场表示不满，特朗普表示他将把对欧洲出口的关税提高到 50%。如此高的税率可能会使从法国奶酪、意大利皮革制品到德国电子产品和西班牙药品的所有商品在美国变得更加昂贵。</p>
</div><p>The EU, whose 27 member nations operate as a single economic bloc, said its leaders hoped to strike a deal with the Trump administration. Without one, the EU said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, ranging from beef and auto parts to beer and Boeing airplanes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟的 27 个成员国作为一个单一经济体运作，表示其领导人希望与特朗普政府达成协议。如果没有达成协议，欧盟表示准备对数百种美国商品征收关税，范围包括牛肉、汽车零部件、啤酒和波音飞机。</p>
</div><p>Here are important things to know about trade between the United States and the European Union.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是关于美国与欧盟之间贸易的重要信息。</p>
</div><p>US-EU trade is enormous</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美欧贸易规模庞大</p>
</div><p>A lot of money is at stake in the trade talks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在贸易谈判中涉及大量资金。</p>
</div><p>The EU's executive commission describes the trade between the U.S. and the EU as &#34;the most important commercial relationship in the world.” The value of EU-U.S. trade in goods and services amounted to 1.7 trillion euros ($2 trillion) in 2024, or an average of 4.6 billion euros a day, according to EU statistics agency Eurostat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟的执行委员会将美国与欧盟之间的贸易描述为 “世界上最重要的商业关系”。根据欧盟统计局 Eurostat 的数据，2024 年欧盟与美国的商品和服务贸易总值达到 1.7 万亿欧元（2 万亿美元），平均每天 4.6 亿欧元。</p>
</div><p>The biggest U.S. export to Europe is crude oil, followed by pharmaceuticals, aircraft, automobiles, and medical and diagnostic equipment. Europe's biggest exports to the U.S. are pharmaceuticals, cars, aircraft, chemicals, medical instruments, and wine and spirits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国对欧洲最大的出口商品是原油，其次是药品、飞机、汽车以及医疗和诊断设备。欧洲对美国最大的出口商品是药品、汽车、飞机、化学品、医疗仪器以及葡萄酒和烈酒。</p>
</div><p>EU sells more to the US than vice versa</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟对美国的出口量超过美国对欧盟的出口量</p>
</div><p>Trump has complained about the EU's 198 billion-euro ($233 billion) trade surplus in goods, which shows Americans buy more stuff from European businesses than the other way around. However, American companies fill some of the gap by outselling the EU when it comes to services such as cloud computing, travel bookings, and legal and financial services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普抱怨欧盟在商品贸易中有 1980 亿欧元（2330 亿美元）的贸易顺差，这表明美国人从欧洲企业购买的商品比反向购买的要多。然而，美国公司通过在云计算、旅行预订以及法律和金融服务等服务领域的销售超越欧盟，填补了一部分差距。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. services surplus took the nation's trade deficit with the EU down to 50 billion euros ($59 billion), which represents less than 3% of overall U.S.-EU trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国的服务顺差使得美国与欧盟的贸易赤字降至 500 亿欧元（590 亿美元），这占美国与欧盟整体贸易的不到 3%。</p>
</div><p>What are the issues dividing the two sides?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>双方之间存在哪些分歧？</p>
</div><p>Before Trump returned to office, the U.S. and the EU maintained a generally cooperative trade relationship and low tariff levels on both sides. The U.S. rate averaged 1.47% for European goods, while the EU's averaged 1.35% for American products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普重新上任之前，美国和欧盟维持着一般合作的贸易关系，双方的关税水平较低。美国对欧洲商品的平均税率为 1.47%，而欧盟对美国商品的平均税率为 1.35%。</p>
</div><p>But the White House has taken a much less friendly posture toward the longstanding U.S. ally since February. Along with the fluctuating tariff rate on European goods Trump has floated, the EU has been subject to his administration's 50% tariff on steel and aluminum and a 25% tax on imported automobiles and parts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但自二月份以来，白宫对这一长期盟友采取了更加不友好的态度。除了特朗普提出的对欧洲商品的波动关税外，欧盟还受到其政府对钢铁和铝征收 50% 关税以及对进口汽车和零部件征收 25% 税的影响。</p>
</div><p>Trump administration officials have raised a slew of issues they want to see addressed, including agricultural barriers such as EU health regulations that include bans on chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-treated beef.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府官员提出了一系列希望解决的问题，包括农业壁垒，例如欧盟的健康法规，其中包括对氯洗鸡和激素处理牛肉的禁令。</p>
</div><p>Trump has also criticized Europe's value-added taxes, which EU countries levy at the point of sale this year at rates of 17% to 27%. But many economists see VAT as trade-neutral since they apply to domestic goods and services as well as imported ones. Because national governments set the taxes through legislation, the EU has said they aren't on the table during trade negotiations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普还批评了欧洲的增值税，欧盟国家在销售时征收的税率在 17% 到 27% 之间。但许多经济学家认为增值税是贸易中性的，因为它适用于国内商品和服务以及进口商品。由于国家政府通过立法设定税收，欧盟表示在贸易谈判中不会讨论这些问题。</p>
</div><p>“On the thorny issues of regulations, consumer standards and taxes, the EU and its member states cannot give much ground,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Germany's Berenberg bank, said. “They cannot change the way they run the EU’s vast internal market according to U.S. demands, which are often rooted in a faulty understanding of how the EU works.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在法规、消费者标准和税收等棘手问题上，欧盟及其成员国无法让步，” 德国贝伦贝格银行首席经济学家霍尔格·施米丁说。“他们无法根据美国的要求改变欧盟庞大内部市场的运作方式，而这些要求往往源于对欧盟运作的错误理解。”</p>
</div><p>What are potential impacts of higher tariffs?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>提高关税的潜在影响是什么？</p>
</div><p>Economists and companies say higher tariffs will mean higher prices for U.S. consumers on imported goods. Importers must decide how much of the extra tax costs to absorb through lower profits and how much to pass on to customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家和公司表示，提高关税将意味着美国消费者在进口商品上的价格上涨。进口商必须决定在降低利润的情况下吸收多少额外税费，以及将多少转嫁给客户。</p>
</div><p>Mercedes-Benz dealers in the US. have said they are holding the line on 2025 model year prices “until further notice.” The German automaker has a partial tariff shield because it makes 35% of the Mercedes-Benz vehicles sold in the U.S. in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, but the company said it expects prices to undergo “significant increases” in coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国的梅赛德斯 - 奔驰经销商表示，他们将 “保持 2025 年车型价格不变，直到另行通知。” 这家德国汽车制造商由于在阿拉巴马州图斯卡卢萨生产 35% 的梅赛德斯 - 奔驰汽车而享有部分关税保护，但该公司表示预计未来几年价格将经历 “显著上涨”。</p>
</div><p>Simon Hunt, CEO of Italian wine and spirits producer Campari Group, told investment analysts that prices could increase for some products or stay the same depending what rival companies do. If competitors raise prices, the company might decide to hold its prices on Skyy vodka or Aperol aperitif to gain market share, Hunt said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>意大利葡萄酒和烈酒生产商 Campari Group 的首席执行官西蒙·亨特告诉投资分析师，某些产品的价格可能会因竞争对手的行为而上涨或保持不变。如果竞争对手提高价格，该公司可能会决定在 Skyy 伏特加或 Aperol 开胃酒上保持价格，以获得市场份额，亨特表示。</p>
</div><p>Trump has argued that making it more difficult for foreign companies to sell in the U.S. is a way to stimulate a revival of American manufacturing. Many companies have dismissed the idea or said it would take years to yield positive economic benefits. However, some corporations have proved willing to shift some production stateside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普认为，让外国公司在美国销售变得更加困难是刺激美国制造业复苏的一种方式。许多公司对此想法表示不屑，或表示这需要数年才能带来积极的经济效益。然而，一些公司已经愿意将部分生产转移到美国。</p>
</div><p>France-based luxury group LVMH, whose brands include Tiffany &amp; Co., Luis Vuitton, Christian Dior and Moet &amp; Chandon, could move some production to the United States, billionaire CEO Bernaud Arnault said at the company’s annual meeting in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总部位于法国的奢侈品集团 LVMH，其品牌包括蒂芙尼、路易威登、克里斯汀·迪奥和酩悦香槟，亿万富翁首席执行官伯纳德·阿尔诺在公司四月份的年度会议上表示，可能会将部分生产转移到美国。</p>
</div><p>Arnault, who attended Trump's inauguration, has urged Europe to reach a deal based on reciprocal concessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿尔诺曾参加特朗普的就职典礼，呼吁欧洲达成基于互惠让步的协议。</p>
</div><p>“If we end up with high tariffs, ... we will be forced to increase our U.S.-based production to avoid tariffs,” Arnault said. “And if Europe fails to negotiate intelligently, that will be the consequence for many companies. ... It will be the fault of Brussels, if it comes to that.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果我们最终面临高关税……我们将被迫增加在美国的生产以避免关税，” 阿尔诺说。“如果欧洲未能进行明智的谈判，这将是许多公司的后果……如果真是这样，那将是布鲁塞尔的错。”</p>
</div><p>Many expect Trump to drop his most drastic demands</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多人预计特朗普会放弃他最激进的要求。</p>
</div><p>Some forecasts indicate the U.S. economy would be more at risk if the negotiations fail. Without a deal, the EU would lose 0.3% of its gross domestic product and U.S. GDP would fall 0.7%, if Trump slaps imported goods from Europe with tariffs of 10% to 25%, according to a research review by Bruegel, a think tank in Brussels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些预测表明，如果谈判失败，美国经济将面临更大风险。根据布鲁塞尔智库 Bruegel 的研究评估，如果特朗普对来自欧洲的进口商品征收 10% 到 25% 的关税，欧盟将损失 0.3% 的国内生产总值，而美国 GDP 将下降 0.7%。</p>
</div><p>Given the complexity of some of the issues, the two sides may arrive only at a framework deal before Wednesday’s deadline. That would likely leave a 10% base tariff, as well as the auto, steel and aluminum tariffs in place until details of a formal trade agreement are ironed out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到一些问题的复杂性，双方可能在周三的最后期限之前仅达成框架协议。这可能会保留 10% 的基础关税，以及汽车、钢铁和铝的关税，直到正式贸易协议的细节得到解决。</p>
</div><p>The most likely outcome of the trade talks is that “the U.S. will agree to deals in which it takes back its worst threats of ‘retaliatory’ tariffs well beyond 10%,” Schmieding said. “However, the road to get there could be rocky.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贸易谈判最可能的结果是 “美国将同意一些交易，其中撤回其超过 10% 的 ‘报复性’ 关税的最糟糕威胁，” 施米丁说。“然而，达到这一目标的道路可能会崎岖不平。”</p>
</div><p>The U.S. offering exemptions for some goods might smooth the path to a deal. The EU could offer to ease some regulations that the White House views as trade barriers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国对某些商品提供豁免可能会为达成协议铺平道路。欧盟可以提出放宽白宫视为贸易壁垒的一些法规。</p>
</div><p>“While Trump might be able to sell such an outcome as a ‘win’ for him, the ultimate victims of his protectionism would, of course, be mostly the U.S. consumers,” Schmieding said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“虽然特朗普可能会将这样的结果视为对他的 ‘胜利’，但他保护主义的最终受害者当然主要是美国消费者，” 施米丁说。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Campari Group Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在 Campari Group 吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Campari Group, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑 Campari Group 之前，你会想听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Campari Group wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐在更广泛的市场注意到之前购买……而 Campari Group 并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Campari Group currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Campari Group 目前在分析师中被评为持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

US tariffs on European goods threaten to shake up the world's largest 2-way trade relationship

- 美国与欧盟的贸易关系面临关税威胁，特朗普计划提高关税至 50%。  
- 欧盟表示若无协议将对美国商品征收报复性关税。  
- 贸易谈判可能影响美欧经济，预计美国 GDP 将下降 0.7%。

美国对欧洲商品征收的关税可能会动摇全球最大的双边贸易关系