<p>2024 年 12 月 26 日，<strong>苹果</strong> 的市值突破了 3.9 万亿美元，距离成为全球首家市值达到 4 万亿美元的公司仅有 2%。但它并没有做到。苹果在最近几周有所回升，但年初至今仍大幅下跌，而 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.28%) 和 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 1.58%) 则创下了新的历史高点。</p><p>以下是为什么英伟达可能成为首家市值超过 4 万亿美元的公司的原因，以及英伟达和微软必须做些什么才能继续上涨，以及这两只成长股现在是否值得购买。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f12f336883e723afd28aefa8f1de440c?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/f12f336883e723afd28aefa8f1de440c"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="wtufwyicg">新的领跑者</h2><p>在不到三年的时间里，英伟达的市值从数十亿跃升至数万亿。现在，它是距离 4 万亿美元最近的公司——截至 7 月 3 日市场收盘，距离仅超过 3%。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/15d4f312eaa82201f293cdcf103b55c4?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="538" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/15d4f312eaa82201f293cdcf103b55c4"/></figure><p>英伟达市值数据来源于 YCharts。</p><p>英伟达可能会在微软之前达到 4 万亿美元的市值，原因在于它离这一门槛更近，并且其股票波动性更大。英伟达年初至今上涨超过 18%，但在 4 月初的关税引发的抛售潮中，年初至今下跌约 30%。因此，股票上涨几个百分点以使其市值超过 4 万亿美元并不不合理。</p><p>更好的问题不是英伟达或微软是否会达到 4 万亿美元的市值，而是每家公司必须做些什么才能证明这一估值是合理的。</p><h2 id="veosmr0dr">由盈利驱动的反弹</h2><p>股票价格上涨的两个主要驱动因素是盈利增长和投资者情绪。如果盈利在增长，投资者可能会愿意以更高的价格购买公司的股票。但如果投资者预期盈利增长的速度会加快，他们可能会愿意给予股票溢价估值。</p><p>英伟达和微软近年来表现如此强劲，因为它们的盈利在增长，且投资者愿意为这些公司的股票支付相对于其盈利的溢价。英伟达的年净收入从不足 100 亿美元飙升至惊人的 768 亿美元，仅用了几年时间。微软在过去五年中将其净收入翻了一番，其股价也翻了一番以上。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b59939123403d6a421bf9faf5037450e?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="720" height="573" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b59939123403d6a421bf9faf5037450e"/></figure><p>英伟达数据来源于 YCharts。</p><p>为了继续成为良好的投资，英伟达和微软都必须证明其盈利增长是可持续的，而不是暂时的。</p><h2 id="megei89o">英伟达的估值仍然合理</h2><p>英伟达从大科技公司在人工智能（AI）上的快速支出中受益匪浅。英伟达在为数据中心提供高性能图形处理单元（GPU）和企业相关的 AI 解决方案方面占据主导市场份额。</p><p>由于供应有限和需求旺盛，英伟达可以为其 AI 产品收取高价，这使其能够将超过一半的销售额转化为纯利润。而且，由于英伟达的客户是一些全球最具财务实力的大型公司（如微软），因此英伟达知道其客户能够在 AI 上花费大量资金。</p><p>然而，如果关键的英伟达客户面临挑战，或者如果行业普遍放缓，竞争出现并侵蚀英伟达的利润率，情况就会有所不同。现在购买英伟达是对该公司即使在利润率逐渐下降的情况下仍能继续增长其盈利的押注。</p><p>好消息是，英伟达不需要每年将盈利翻倍才能成为一个优秀的投资。即使它每年以 25% 的速度增长盈利，它仍然可以随着时间的推移降低其估值，并成为一只超越市场的股票。以下是如果英伟达每年以 25% 的速度增长盈利，而股价平均每年上涨 15%，其市盈率（P/E）将如何从 50 以上降至 35 以下的情况。</p><figure class="table"><table><thead><tr><th>指标</th><th>当前</th><th>第一年</th><th>第二年</th><th>第三年</th><th>第四年</th><th>第五年</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>股价（年增长 15%）</td><td>$159.20</td><td>$183.08</td><td>$210.54</td><td>$242.12</td><td>$278.44</td><td>$320.21</td></tr><tr><td>每股盈利（年增长 25%）</td><td>$3.10</td><td>$3.88</td><td>$4.84</td><td>$6.05</td><td>$7.57</td><td>$9.46</td></tr><tr><td>市盈率</td><td>51.4</td><td>47.2</td><td>43.5</td><td>40</td><td>36.2</td><td>33.8</td></tr></tbody></table></figure><p>在这些假设下，英伟达的股价在五年内大致翻倍，但其盈利却增长了三倍，因此市盈率大幅下降。</p><p>关键的结论是，英伟达不需要维持其抛物线式的增长才能成为一个良好的投资。然而，如果投资者认为不可预见的风险会打断其增长轨迹，股票可能会大幅下跌。我们在 4 月时就尝到了这一点，当时英伟达预计将因关税而产生数十亿美元的费用，股价在短时间内暴跌。</p><p>总之，投资者只有在对持续的 AI 支出和公司在市场成熟时的转型能力充满信心时，才应考虑投资英伟达。</p><h2 id="o65p1nbsp">远非单一业务</h2><p>微软可能是寻求更平衡的科技股票的投资者更好的选择。微软的市盈率低于英伟达，原因很简单，因为它的增长速度没有那么快。然而，微软也不需要很多事情顺利进行就能继续稳定增长。</p><p>英伟达绝大多数的盈利直接与 AI 相关。微软则拥有多元化的盈利结构，包括云计算、软件、硬件、GitHub、LinkedIn 和 Xbox 等平台，以及其他领域。AI 正在加速微软的盈利增长并扩展其盈利，但即使 AI 投资放缓，行业成熟，该公司仍然可以表现得非常出色。</p><p>值得一提的是，微软定期回购股票，并且已经连续 15 年提高股息。因此，它的资本回报计划比英伟达更为平衡，英伟达则通过发展核心业务来奖励股东，而不是直接返还资本。</p><h2 id="ui3moofxa">两个适合长期投资者的稳健买入</h2><p>英伟达和微软都是杰出的公司。看到它们的市值都超过 4 万亿美元并继续增长并不令人惊讶。然而，投资者应该注意到，这两家公司股票价格的上涨速度快于其盈利增长，这给它们带来了在预期与现实之间弥合差距的压力。</p>

<p>英伟达有望成为首家市值超过 4 万亿美元的公司，目前距离这一目标仅超过 3%。与此同时，微软的表现也相当不错。这两家公司都经历了显著的盈利增长，英伟达的年净收入飙升至 768 亿美元。为了保持投资吸引力，它们必须持续这种增长。英伟达受益于对人工智能解决方案的高需求，从而实现了可观的利润率。即使面临潜在的利润率下降，25% 的年盈利增长仍然可能使英伟达成为一个强劲的投资选择，随着时间的推移降低其市盈率</p>

<p>On Dec. 26, 2024, <strong>Apple</strong> crossed $3.9 trillion in market capitalization, putting it just 2% away from becoming the world's first $4 trillion company. But it didn't get there. Apple has recovered in recent weeks but remains down big year to date, whereas <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.28%) and <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 1.58%) just made new all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年 12 月 26 日，<strong>苹果</strong> 的市值突破了 3.9 万亿美元，距离成为全球首家市值达到 4 万亿美元的公司仅有 2%。但它并没有做到。苹果在最近几周有所回升，但年初至今仍大幅下跌，而 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.28%) 和 <strong>微软</strong>(MSFT 1.58%) 则创下了新的历史高点。</p>
</div><p>Here's why Nvidia will likely become the first company to surpass $4 trillion in market value, what Nvidia and Microsoft must do to continue rising in price, and whether either growth stock is a buy now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是为什么英伟达可能成为首家市值超过 4 万亿美元的公司的原因，以及英伟达和微软必须做些什么才能继续上涨，以及这两只成长股现在是否值得购买。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM4OTEvYS1zaWduLXRoYXQtcmVhZHMtcmVjb3JkLWhpZ2hzLWp1c3QtYWhlYWQtb24tdGhlLXNpZGUtb2YtYS1yb2FkLW5leHQtdG8tYW4tb3Blbi1wbGFpbi13aXRoLW1vdW50YWlucy1pbi10aGUtYmFja2dyb3VuZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823891%2Fa-sign-that-reads-record-highs-just-ahead-on-the-side-of-a-road-next-to-an-open-plain-with-mountains-in-the-background.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A new frontrunner</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新的领跑者</h2>
</div><p>In less than three years, Nvidia has gone from billions to trillions in market cap. And now, it is the closest company to $4 trillion -- a little over 3% away as of market close on July 3.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在不到三年的时间里，英伟达的市值从数十亿跃升至数万亿。现在，它是距离 4 万亿美元最近的公司——截至 7 月 3 日市场收盘，距离仅超过 3%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/805ab1759246051df94a3433c57dcbd9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/805ab1759246051df94a3433c57dcbd9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Market Cap data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达市值数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia will likely reach $4 trillion before Microsoft simply because it is closer to the threshold, and its stock is more volatile. Nvidia is now up over 18% year to date (YTD), but it was down around 30% YTD in early April during the worst of the tariff-induced sell-off. So it's not unreasonable that the stock could move a few percentage points higher to pole-vault its market cap above $4 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达可能会在微软之前达到 4 万亿美元的市值，原因在于它离这一门槛更近，并且其股票波动性更大。英伟达年初至今上涨超过 18%，但在 4 月初的关税引发的抛售潮中，年初至今下跌约 30%。因此，股票上涨几个百分点以使其市值超过 4 万亿美元并不不合理。</p>
</div><p>The better question isn't whether Nvidia or Microsoft will hit $4 trillion in market cap but rather what each company must do to justify that valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更好的问题不是英伟达或微软是否会达到 4 万亿美元的市值，而是每家公司必须做些什么才能证明这一估值是合理的。</p>
</div><h2>An earnings-driven rally</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>由盈利驱动的反弹</h2>
</div><p>The two biggest drivers of stock-price appreciation are earnings growth and investor sentiment. If earnings are increasing, investors will likely pay a higher price for the company's shares. But if investors expect the pace of earnings growth to accelerate, then they may be willing to give a stock a premium valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票价格上涨的两个主要驱动因素是盈利增长和投资者情绪。如果盈利在增长，投资者可能会愿意以更高的价格购买公司的股票。但如果投资者预期盈利增长的速度会加快，他们可能会愿意给予股票溢价估值。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia and Microsoft have been such strong performers in recent years because they are growing earnings <em>and</em> investors are willing to pay a premium price for these companies relative to their earnings. Nvidia went from making under $10 billion in annual net income to a staggering $76.8 billion in just a few years. Microsoft has doubled its net income over the past five years, and its stock price has more than doubled as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达和微软近年来表现如此强劲，因为它们的盈利在增长，且投资者愿意为这些公司的股票支付相对于其盈利的溢价。英伟达的年净收入从不足 100 亿美元飙升至惊人的 768 亿美元，仅用了几年时间。微软在过去五年中将其净收入翻了一番，其股价也翻了一番以上。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8658e73ee38cc67b2f2ed7025330b571.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8658e73ee38cc67b2f2ed7025330b571.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>For Nvidia and Microsoft to continue being good investments going forward, both companies must demonstrate that their earnings growth is sustainable and not temporary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了继续成为良好的投资，英伟达和微软都必须证明其盈利增长是可持续的，而不是暂时的。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's valuation is still reasonable</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的估值仍然合理</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia has greatly benefited from the rapid rise of big tech spending on artificial intelligence (AI). Nvidia has a dominant market share in providing high-powered graphics processing units (GPUs) for data centers and associated AI solutions for enterprises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达从大科技公司在人工智能（AI）上的快速支出中受益匪浅。英伟达在为数据中心提供高性能图形处理单元（GPU）和企业相关的 AI 解决方案方面占据主导市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Due to limited supply and high demand, Nvidia can charge top dollar for its AI offerings, which allows it to convert over half of its sales into pure profit. And because Nvidia's customers are some of the most financially secure, big-budget companies in the world (like Microsoft), then Nvidia knows its customers can afford to spend a ton on AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于供应有限和需求旺盛，英伟达可以为其 AI 产品收取高价，这使其能够将超过一半的销售额转化为纯利润。而且，由于英伟达的客户是一些全球最具财务实力的大型公司（如微软），因此英伟达知道其客户能够在 AI 上花费大量资金。</p>
</div><p>However, that wouldn't be the case if challenges arise for key Nvidia customers if there is an industrywide slowdown or if competition comes along and erodes Nvidia's margins. Buying Nvidia now is a bet that the company can continue growing its earnings even if its margins gradually decline over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果关键的英伟达客户面临挑战，或者如果行业普遍放缓，竞争出现并侵蚀英伟达的利润率，情况就会有所不同。现在购买英伟达是对该公司即使在利润率逐渐下降的情况下仍能继续增长其盈利的押注。</p>
</div><p>The good news is that Nvidia doesn't have to double its earnings every year to be a great buy. Even if it grows earnings at, let's say, 25% per year, it could still reduce its valuation over time and be a market-beating stock. Here's a look at how Nvidia's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio would go from over 50 to under 35 in five years if it grew earnings at 25% per year, and the stock price gained an average of 15% per year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，英伟达不需要每年将盈利翻倍才能成为一个优秀的投资。即使它每年以 25% 的速度增长盈利，它仍然可以随着时间的推移降低其估值，并成为一只超越市场的股票。以下是如果英伟达每年以 25% 的速度增长盈利，而股价平均每年上涨 15%，其市盈率（P/E）将如何从 50 以上降至 35 以下的情况。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Current</th>
<th>Year 1</th>
<th>Year 2</th>
<th>Year 3</th>
<th>Year 4</th>
<th>Year 5</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stock Price (15% Annual Growth)</td>
<td>$159.20</td>
<td>$183.08</td>
<td>$210.54</td>
<td>$242.12</td>
<td>$278.44</td>
<td>$320.21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Earnings Per Share (25% Annual Growth)</td>
<td>$3.10</td>
<td>$3.88</td>
<td>$4.84</td>
<td>$6.05</td>
<td>$7.57</td>
<td>$9.46</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>P/E Ratio</td>
<td>51.4</td>
<td>47.2</td>
<td>43.5</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>36.2</td>
<td>33.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>当前</th>
<th>第一年</th>
<th>第二年</th>
<th>第三年</th>
<th>第四年</th>
<th>第五年</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>股价（年增长 15%）</td>
<td>$159.20</td>
<td>$183.08</td>
<td>$210.54</td>
<td>$242.12</td>
<td>$278.44</td>
<td>$320.21</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股盈利（年增长 25%）</td>
<td>$3.10</td>
<td>$3.88</td>
<td>$4.84</td>
<td>$6.05</td>
<td>$7.57</td>
<td>$9.46</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>市盈率</td>
<td>51.4</td>
<td>47.2</td>
<td>43.5</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>36.2</td>
<td>33.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Under these assumptions, Nvidia's stock price roughly doubles in five years, but its earnings triple, so the P/E ratio falls considerably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这些假设下，英伟达的股价在五年内大致翻倍，但其盈利却增长了三倍，因此市盈率大幅下降。</p>
</div><p>The key takeaway is that Nvidia doesn't have to sustain its parabolic growth to be a good investment. However, the stock could sell off dramatically if investors believe an unforeseen risk will interrupt its growth trajectory. We got a taste of that in April when Nvidia estimated it would incur multibillion-dollar charges due to tariffs, and the stock price nose-dived in a short period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键的结论是，英伟达不需要维持其抛物线式的增长才能成为一个良好的投资。然而，如果投资者认为不可预见的风险会打断其增长轨迹，股票可能会大幅下跌。我们在 4 月时就尝到了这一点，当时英伟达预计将因关税而产生数十亿美元的费用，股价在短时间内暴跌。</p>
</div><p>In sum, investors should only consider Nvidia if they are confident in sustained AI spending and the company's ability to pivot as the market matures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，投资者只有在对持续的 AI 支出和公司在市场成熟时的转型能力充满信心时，才应考虑投资英伟达。</p>
</div><h2>Far from a one-trick pony</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>远非单一业务</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft may be a better choice for investors seeking a more balanced tech stock to purchase. Microsoft has a lower P/E than Nvidia, and for good reason, because it isn't growing as quickly. However, Microsoft also doesn't need a lot to go right for it to continue growing steadily over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软可能是寻求更平衡的科技股票的投资者更好的选择。微软的市盈率低于英伟达，原因很简单，因为它的增长速度没有那么快。然而，微软也不需要很多事情顺利进行就能继续稳定增长。</p>
</div><p>The vast majority of Nvidia's earnings are directly tied to AI. Microsoft has a diverse earnings profile, encompassing cloud computing, software, hardware, platforms such as GitHub, LinkedIn, and Xbox, as well as other areas. AI is accelerating Microsoft's earnings growth and expanding its earnings, but the company can still do extremely well even if AI investment slows and the industry matures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达绝大多数的盈利直接与 AI 相关。微软则拥有多元化的盈利结构，包括云计算、软件、硬件、GitHub、LinkedIn 和 Xbox 等平台，以及其他领域。AI 正在加速微软的盈利增长并扩展其盈利，但即使 AI 投资放缓，行业成熟，该公司仍然可以表现得非常出色。</p>
</div><p>It's also worth mentioning that Microsoft routinely buys back its stock and has raised its dividend for 15 consecutive years. So it has a more balanced capital-return program than Nvidia, which rewards shareholders by growing the core business rather than directly returning capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，微软定期回购股票，并且已经连续 15 年提高股息。因此，它的资本回报计划比英伟达更为平衡，英伟达则通过发展核心业务来奖励股东，而不是直接返还资本。</p>
</div><h2>Two solid buys for long-term investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>两个适合长期投资者的稳健买入</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia and Microsoft are exceptional companies. It wouldn't be surprising to see them both surpass $4 trillion market caps and continue building from there. However, investors should be mindful that both companies are seeing their stock prices rise faster than their earnings are growing, which puts pressure on them to bridge the gap between expectations and reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达和微软都是杰出的公司。看到它们的市值都超过 4 万亿美元并继续增长并不令人惊讶。然而，投资者应该注意到，这两家公司股票价格的上涨速度快于其盈利增长，这给它们带来了在预期与现实之间弥合差距的压力。</p>
</div>

Nvidia vs. Microsoft Stock: Which Will Be the First $4 Trillion Company?

- 苹果在 2024 年 12 月 26 日市值达到 3.9 万亿美元，距离 4 万亿仅 2%。
- 英伟达和微软近期创下新高，英伟达更有可能成为首个市值超 4 万亿的公司。
- 投资者需关注两家公司能否持续增长以支撑其高估值。

Motley Fool

微软

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

YieldMax MSFT Option Income Strategy ETF

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

T-Rex 2X Long Microsoft Daily Target ETF

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Microsoft MSFT ETF

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

英伟达和微软的股票：哪家公司会率先达到市值 4 万亿美元？