<p>方舟投资的首席执行官 Cathie Wood 管理着众多交易所交易基金（ETFs），包括一系列投资于科技股的基金。</p>
<p>这些基金在过去取得了一些成功，其中 <strong>创新 ETF</strong>（ARKK -0.91%）是公司旗下最大的基金，截至 6 月 30 日，过去一年回报接近 60%。这几乎是 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>15.7% 回报的四倍。</p>
<p>但考虑到该基金在科技领域的集中投资，它并不一定适合胆小的投资者。它旨在投资于处于 “颠覆性创新” 前沿的公司。<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -6.72%）是创新 ETF 最大的赢家之一。截至 7 月 2 日，该基金持有约 210 万股这家电动车制造商的股票。这一股份价值超过 6.3 亿美元，占基金资产的 9.6%，成为 ETF 中最大的持仓。</p>
<p>但特斯拉能否继续飙升，还是注定要面临崩盘？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM3NjUvdGVzbGEtZXYtZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZS1jaGFyZ2luZy1zdGF0aW9uLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM3NjUvdGVzbGEtZXYtZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZS1jaGFyZ2luZy1zdGF0aW9uLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的电动回报</h2>
<p>特斯拉是 “七大科技巨头” 之一，为股东带来了强劲的回报。在 2024 年，该股票上涨了 62.5%，轻松超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的 25% 总回报和纳斯达克综合指数的 29.6% 总回报。</p>
<p>特斯拉的汽车业务产生了公司大部分收入。在 2024 年，这一收入下降了 6%，降至 771 亿美元，部分原因是电动车价格下调。包括服务（例如，二手车、维护服务、超级充电和保险）在内，该部门的总收入下降了 3%，降至 876 亿美元。</p>
<p>其另一个主要收入来源是能源生产和存储部门，这是一个亮点。该业务包括销售、租赁和融资太阳能发电和存储产品，收入增长了 67%，达到 101 亿美元。然而，这仅占特斯拉总收入的约 10%。</p>
<h2>股票繁荣结束了吗？</h2>
<p>可以说，埃隆·马斯克与唐纳德·特朗普的关系，无论是在竞选期间还是在他担任总统期间，都可能促进了去年股票价格的增长。但马斯克和特朗普之间已经出现了分歧，基于与政治人物的个人关系来分析公司的长期前景是困难的。截止 7 月 2 日，该股票今年已下跌 21.9%，远远落后于上涨 6.8% 的标准普尔 500 指数。</p>
<p>此外，部分共和党最近通过的税收和支出法案似乎会对特斯拉的前景造成伤害。新法律取消了电动车和太阳能系统的联邦税收抵免，这使得这些产品对消费者来说更加昂贵。</p>
<p>特斯拉已经面临挑战，包括中国电动车巨头 <strong>比亚迪</strong>（BYDD.F -0.84%）（BYDDY -1.56%），该公司一直在削减价格。激烈的竞争对特斯拉的业绩产生了负面影响。特斯拉将在本月底公布第二季度业绩，但其第一季度汽车收入下降了 20%，降至 140 亿美元。这导致总收入下降了 9%，其根据公认会计原则（GAAP）计算的营业收入下降了 66%，降至 3.99 亿美元。</p>
<p>管理层已经公布了第二季度的汽车交付数据，显示其销售仍然承压。第二季度交付约 384,000 辆汽车，而去年同期为超过 422,000 辆。</p>
<p>管理层一直在投资新技术和产品，例如计划明年投入生产的完全自动驾驶的 Cybercab。这类车辆和特斯拉打算建立的机器人出租车服务有着潜在的巨大市场，但也面临着许多挑战。自动驾驶的竞争已经让其他公司经历了多次失败的尝试。</p>
<p>考虑到马斯克在各个事业上的成功，很难对一家由他领导的公司下赌注。然而，鉴于特斯拉面临的挑战及其高估值——目前的市销率为 11.6，市盈率为 173——我会避免投资该股票。对于投资于创新 ETF 的投资者，我不认为电动车股票会成为该基金未来回报的最大正面驱动因素。</p>

特斯拉

创新 ETF - ARK

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>凯西·伍德的创新 ETF（Ark Innovation ETF）取得了显著成功，这在很大程度上归功于其对特斯拉的投资，特斯拉占该基金资产的 9.6%。然而，特斯拉的股票面临挑战，今年已下跌 21.9%，并且来自比亚迪等公司的竞争加剧。最近联邦电动车税收抵免的取消可能进一步影响特斯拉的销售。尽管自动驾驶汽车有潜在增长，但特斯拉的高估值令投资者感到担忧。总体而言，特斯拉的未来表现及其对该 ETF 的影响仍然不确定</p>

<p>Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, oversees numerous exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including a family of funds that invest in technology stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>方舟投资的首席执行官 Cathie Wood 管理着众多交易所交易基金（ETFs），包括一系列投资于科技股的基金。</p>
</div><p>These funds have had some success in the past, with the <strong>Ark Innovation ETF</strong>(ARKK -0.91%), the largest one under the company's umbrella, returning nearly 60% over the past year through June 30. That's nearly four times the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>'s 15.7% return during that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些基金在过去取得了一些成功，其中 <strong>创新 ETF</strong>（ARKK -0.91%）是公司旗下最大的基金，截至 6 月 30 日，过去一年回报接近 60%。这几乎是 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>15.7% 回报的四倍。</p>
</div><p>But the fund isn't necessarily for the faint of heart, given its concentration in the tech sector. It seeks to invest in companies at the forefront of &#34;disruptive innovation. One of the Ark Innovation ETF's biggest winners has been <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -6.72%). As of July 2, the fund owned about 2.1 million shares of the electric vehicle (EV) maker. That stake, worth over $630 million, represented 9.6% of the fund's assets, making it the ETF's biggest position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但考虑到该基金在科技领域的集中投资，它并不一定适合胆小的投资者。它旨在投资于处于 “颠覆性创新” 前沿的公司。<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -6.72%）是创新 ETF 最大的赢家之一。截至 7 月 2 日，该基金持有约 210 万股这家电动车制造商的股票。这一股份价值超过 6.3 亿美元，占基金资产的 9.6%，成为 ETF 中最大的持仓。</p>
</div><p>But can Tesla continue to rocket upwards, or is it due for a crash landing?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但特斯拉能否继续飙升，还是注定要面临崩盘？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM3NjUvdGVzbGEtZXYtZWxlY3RyaWMtdmVoaWNsZS1jaGFyZ2luZy1zdGF0aW9uLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823765%2Ftesla-ev-electric-vehicle-charging-station-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's electric returns</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的电动回报</h2>
</div><p>Tesla, one of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; group of technology stocks, has produced strong returns for shareholders. In 2024, the stock gained 62.5%, easily besting the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s total return of 25% and the Nasdaq Composite's total return of 29.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉是 “七大科技巨头” 之一，为股东带来了强劲的回报。在 2024 年，该股票上涨了 62.5%，轻松超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的 25% 总回报和纳斯达克综合指数的 29.6% 总回报。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's automotive business produces most of the company's revenue. In 2024, this fell 6% to $77.1 billion due in part to lower EV prices. Including services (e.g., used vehicles, maintenance services, supercharging, and insurance), the top line from that segment dropped 3% to $87.6 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的汽车业务产生了公司大部分收入。在 2024 年，这一收入下降了 6%，降至 771 亿美元，部分原因是电动车价格下调。包括服务（例如，二手车、维护服务、超级充电和保险）在内，该部门的总收入下降了 3%，降至 876 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Its other major revenue source is the energy generation and storage segment, which was a bright spot. That business includes selling, leasing, and financing solar energy generation and storage products, and it saw a 67% increase in revenue to $10.1 billion. However, it made up only about 10% of Tesla's total revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其另一个主要收入来源是能源生产和存储部门，这是一个亮点。该业务包括销售、租赁和融资太阳能发电和存储产品，收入增长了 67%，达到 101 亿美元。然而，这仅占特斯拉总收入的约 10%。</p>
</div><h2>Has the stock boom ended?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票繁荣结束了吗？</h2>
</div><p>Arguably, Elon Musk's relationship with Donald Trump, both during the campaign and his presidency, likely contributed to the stock price growth last year. But Musk and Trump have had a falling out, and it's difficult to analyze a company's long-term prospects based on personal relationships with politicians. The stock has lost 21.9% this year through July 2, badly lagging the S&amp;P 500, which has gained 6.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以说，埃隆·马斯克与唐纳德·特朗普的关系，无论是在竞选期间还是在他担任总统期间，都可能促进了去年股票价格的增长。但马斯克和特朗普之间已经出现了分歧，基于与政治人物的个人关系来分析公司的长期前景是困难的。截止 7 月 2 日，该股票今年已下跌 21.9%，远远落后于上涨 6.8% 的标准普尔 500 指数。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, portions of the Republicans' recently passed tax and spending bill would seem to hurt Tesla's prospects. The new law eliminates the federal tax credits for electric vehicles and solar energy systems, which makes those products more expensive for consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，部分共和党最近通过的税收和支出法案似乎会对特斯拉的前景造成伤害。新法律取消了电动车和太阳能系统的联邦税收抵免，这使得这些产品对消费者来说更加昂贵。</p>
</div><p>Tesla was already facing challenges, including China-based EV giant <strong>BYD</strong>(BYDD.F -0.84%)(BYDDY -1.56%), which has been slashing its prices. The fierce competition has negatively affected Tesla's results. Tesla will report its second-quarter results at the end of the month, but its first-quarter automotive revenue dropped by 20% to $14 billion. That results in a total top-line drop of 9%, and its operating income under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) fell by 66% to $399 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉已经面临挑战，包括中国电动车巨头 <strong>比亚迪</strong>（BYDD.F -0.84%）（BYDDY -1.56%），该公司一直在削减价格。激烈的竞争对特斯拉的业绩产生了负面影响。特斯拉将在本月底公布第二季度业绩，但其第一季度汽车收入下降了 20%，降至 140 亿美元。这导致总收入下降了 9%，其根据公认会计原则（GAAP）计算的营业收入下降了 66%，降至 3.99 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Management has already published its second-quarter vehicle delivery numbers, which showed that its sales remain under pressure. It delivered about 384,000 cars in Q2, compared to over 422,000 in the prior-year period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层已经公布了第二季度的汽车交付数据，显示其销售仍然承压。第二季度交付约 384,000 辆汽车，而去年同期为超过 422,000 辆。</p>
</div><p>Management has been investing in new technologies and products, like the fully autonomous Cybercab, which is scheduled to go into production next year. There's a potentially large market for such vehicles, and for the robotaxi service Tesla intends to build, but it's one fraught with challenges. The race to autonomous driving has seen a number of false starts from other companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层一直在投资新技术和产品，例如计划明年投入生产的完全自动驾驶的 Cybercab。这类车辆和特斯拉打算建立的机器人出租车服务有着潜在的巨大市场，但也面临着许多挑战。自动驾驶的竞争已经让其他公司经历了多次失败的尝试。</p>
</div><p>It's hard to bet against a Musk-run company given the success he's had in his various ventures. However, given the challenges Tesla faces and its high valuation -- it trades today at a price-to-sales ratio of 11.6 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 173 -- I'd stay away from the stock. And for investors in the Ark Innovation ETF, I wouldn't expect the EV stock to be the biggest positive driver of the fund's future returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到马斯克在各个事业上的成功，很难对一家由他领导的公司下赌注。然而，鉴于特斯拉面临的挑战及其高估值——目前的市销率为 11.6，市盈率为 173——我会避免投资该股票。对于投资于创新 ETF 的投资者，我不认为电动车股票会成为该基金未来回报的最大正面驱动因素。</p>
</div>

Cathie Wood's Tesla Bet Pays Off Again. But How Long Can It Last?

- Ark Invest 的 CEO Cathie Wood 管理多只投资科技股的 ETF。  
- Ark Innovation ETF 在过去一年回报近 60%，远超纳斯达克的 15.7%。  
- 特斯拉面临竞争加剧和政策影响，股价今年已下跌 21.9%。  

凯西·伍德对特斯拉的投资再次获得回报。然而，这种情况能持续多久呢？