<p>华盛顿（美联社）——当特朗普总统上次推出如此高的关税时，金融市场震荡，消费者信心崩溃，他的受欢迎程度也大幅下滑。</p>
<p>仅仅三个月后，他在赌这次会有所不同。</p>
<p>在本周宣布的新一轮关税中，特朗普基本上将整个世界经济与他本能的信念联系在一起，认为进口税将带来工厂工作和美国更强劲的增长，而不是许多经济学家预测的通货膨胀和经济放缓。</p>
<p>周二，他告诉内阁，过去那些没有积极施加关税的总统是 “愚蠢的”。作为一个销售员，特朗普补充说，与世界其他国家谈判贸易协议 “太耗时”，因此更简单的做法是像本周这样给他们发送信件，列出他们商品的关税税率。</p>
<p>这些信件标志着他自称的 4 月 2 日 “解放日” 活动的变化，当时他在白宫展示了关税税率的海报，这一选择导致了短暂的市场崩溃和为期 90 天的谈判期，基准关税为 10%，将于周三结束。特朗普选择发送格式不规范、随机大写和标点符号的表格信件。</p>
<p>“这是一种更好的方式，” 特朗普谈到他的信件时说。“这是一种更有力的方式。我们给他们发送一封信。你读这封信。我认为它写得很好。主要是里面有一个小数字：你将支付 25%、35%。我们有一些是 60%、70%。”</p>
<p>当特朗普说这些话时，他尚未发出关税税率高于 40% 的信件，他在周一对老挝和缅甸征收了这一税率。他计划对日本和韩国这两个主要贸易伙伴和盟友征收 25% 的关税，这被认为对遏制中国的经济影响至关重要。迄今为止被征收关税的 14 个国家的领导人希望在未来三周内进行谈判，以便在更高的税率对进口商品征收之前达成协议。</p>
<p>“我会说，在每一个案例中，我对他们的待遇都比他们多年来对我们的待遇要好，” 特朗普说。</p>
<p>三种可能的结果</p>
<p>他的做法与过去半个世纪主要贸易协议的产生方式相悖，这些协议通常需要详细的会议，有时需要数年才能解决国家之间的复杂分歧。</p>
<p>对此政治和经济赌注有三种可能的结果，每一种都可能彻底重塑国际事务和特朗普的遗产。</p>
<p>特朗普可能会证明大多数经济专家是错误的，关税可能如承诺的那样带来增长。或者他可能在 8 月 1 日开始之前再次退缩，重演 “特朗普总是退缩” 的现象，也称为 TACO。或者他可能以某种方式损害经济，这可能会反噬那些帮助他去年重返白宫的社区，并伤害那些因关税而处于经济劣势的国家。</p>
<p>俄勒冈州民主党参议员罗恩·怀登表示，特朗普的信件 “将他的关税炼狱延长了一个月”，基本上使美国经济冻结，因为首席执行官、外国领导人和消费者对特朗普在对外贸易上的实际战略感到不确定。</p>
<p>“特朗普开创的 TACO 谈判策略使他的威胁变得越来越不可信，减少了我们的贸易伙伴甚至愿意与我们妥协的意愿，” 怀登说。“没有迹象表明他更接近达成真正有利于美国工人和企业的持久贸易协议。”</p>
<p>到目前为止，股票和债券市场相对平静，标准普尔 500 指数在周二基本持平，此前周一有所下跌。特朗普刚刚在他的万亿收入税减免中取得立法胜利。他自信地征收关税，税率曾使全球市场震荡，受到通货膨胀迄今已缓解而非加速的事实的支持，尽管许多经济学家和民主党对手曾警告过。</p>
<p>“通过将关税提高到 40% 甚至 100%，政府已经 ‘正常化’ 了 25% 的关税上涨——然而这仍然是现代历史上最具攻击性和破坏性的关税举措之一，” 康奈尔大学经济学家张文东表示。“这种逐步揭示，矛盾地，冒着正常化本应被视为异常大的关税上涨的风险。”</p>
<p>关于关税将产生多少收入的问题</p>
<p>随着特朗普的 90 天关税谈判期结束，他迄今已向 14 个国家发送了信件，对进口商品征收 25% 至 40% 的税。他表示，周二将签署命令，对铜征收 50% 的关税，并在内阁会议上表示，某些药品可能面临高达 200% 的关税。所有这些都是在他现有的 50% 钢铁和铝关税、25% 汽车关税以及对加拿大、墨西哥和中国的单独进口税之上。</p>
<p>“显而易见的推论是，市场目前对特朗普是否会付诸实践持怀疑态度，或者他们认为会达成妥协，” 牛津经济咨询公司的全球经济研究主任本·梅说。“这可能是关键因素。”</p>
<p>梅表示，关税可能会减少美国家庭收入的增长，但不会导致这些收入直接缩水。</p>
<p>特朗普表示，他的关税将缩小美国的贸易失衡，尽管不清楚他为何会针对与美国贸易相对较少的国家，如突尼斯。政府官员表示，未来十年数万亿美元的关税收入将有助于弥补他于周五签署的 2017 年税收减免的收入损失。</p>
<p>根据两党政策中心的数据，联邦政府今年迄今已收取 982 亿美元的关税收入，超过去年收取的两倍。</p>
<p>在周二的内阁会议上，财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，到年底关税收入可能 “超过 3000 亿美元”。贝森特补充说，“我们不同意” 国会预算办公室的估计，即关税在 10 年内将带来 2.8 万亿美元的收入，“我们认为这个估计可能偏低。”</p>
<p>日本、韩国、马来西亚、缅甸、泰国、柬埔寨和南非的政府都表示希望与特朗普进一步就关税进行谈判，尽管尚不清楚这如何可能，因为特朗普表示召开所有这些会议将 “太复杂”。</p>
<p>相反，特朗普在周二通过社交媒体发布消息，称关税将按计划于 8 月 1 日开始征收。</p>
<p>“这个日期没有变化，也不会有变化，” 特朗普在 Truth Social 上说。“不会给予任何延期。感谢您对此事的关注！”</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元吗？</h2>
<p>在你进行下一笔交易之前，你会想听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。</p>
<p>我们的团队已经确定了五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向他们的客户推荐在市场广泛关注之前购买……而且没有一只大牌股票在名单上。</p>
<p>他们认为这五只股票是投资者现在应该购买的五家最佳公司……</p>
<p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>

<p>特朗普总统正在重新引入高额关税，寄希望于这些关税能够促进美国的工厂就业和经济增长，尽管过去对金融市场和消费者信心产生了负面影响。他的做法与传统的贸易谈判形成对比，选择通过详细说明关税率的信函来进行。潜在的结果包括经济增长、撤回关税或对经济造成损害。尽管市场保持平静，但专家警告称，这些激进的关税可能会扰乱国际贸易和关系。特朗普提议对各种进口商品征收 25% 至 200% 的关税，这引发了人们对其经济影响的质疑</p>

<p>WASHINGTON (AP) — When President Donald Trump last rolled out tariffs this high, financial markets quaked, consumer confidence crashed and his popularity plunged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华盛顿（美联社）——当特朗普总统上次推出如此高的关税时，金融市场震荡，消费者信心崩溃，他的受欢迎程度也大幅下滑。</p>
</div><p>Only three months later, he’s betting this time is different.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅仅三个月后，他在赌这次会有所不同。</p>
</div><p>In his new round of tariffs being announced this week, Trump is essentially tethering the entire world economy to his instinctual belief that import taxes will deliver factory jobs and stronger growth in the U.S., rather than the inflation and slowdown predicted by many economists.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本周宣布的新一轮关税中，特朗普基本上将整个世界经济与他本能的信念联系在一起，认为进口税将带来工厂工作和美国更强劲的增长，而不是许多经济学家预测的通货膨胀和经济放缓。</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, he told his Cabinet that past presidents who hadn't aggressively deployed tariffs were “stupid.” Ever the salesman, Trump added that it was “too time-consuming” to try to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world, so it was just easier to send them letters, as he's doing this week, that list the tariff rates on their goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，他告诉内阁，过去那些没有积极施加关税的总统是 “愚蠢的”。作为一个销售员，特朗普补充说，与世界其他国家谈判贸易协议 “太耗时”，因此更简单的做法是像本周这样给他们发送信件，列出他们商品的关税税率。</p>
</div><p>The letters marked a change from his self-proclaimed April 2 “Liberation Day” event at the White House, where he had posterboards with the rates displayed, a choice that led to a brief market meltdown and the 90-day negotiating period with baseline 10% tariffs that will end Wednesday. Trump, instead, chose to send form letters with random capitalizations and punctuation and other formatting issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些信件标志着他自称的 4 月 2 日 “解放日” 活动的变化，当时他在白宫展示了关税税率的海报，这一选择导致了短暂的市场崩溃和为期 90 天的谈判期，基准关税为 10%，将于周三结束。特朗普选择发送格式不规范、随机大写和标点符号的表格信件。</p>
</div><p>“It’s a better way,” Trump said of his letters. &#34;It’s a more powerful way. And we send them a letter. You read the letter. I think it was well crafted. And, mostly it’s just a little number in there: You’ll pay 25%, 35%. We have some of at 60, 70.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这是一种更好的方式，” 特朗普谈到他的信件时说。“这是一种更有力的方式。我们给他们发送一封信。你读这封信。我认为它写得很好。主要是里面有一个小数字：你将支付 25%、35%。我们有一些是 60%、70%。”</p>
</div><p>When Trump said those words, he had yet to issue a letter with a tariff rate higher than 40%, which he levied Monday on Laos and Myanmar. He plans to put 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, two major trading partners and allies deemed crucial for curbing China's economic influence. Leaders of the 14 countries tariffed so far hope to negotiate over the next three weeks before the higher rates are charged on imports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当特朗普说这些话时，他尚未发出关税税率高于 40% 的信件，他在周一对老挝和缅甸征收了这一税率。他计划对日本和韩国这两个主要贸易伙伴和盟友征收 25% 的关税，这被认为对遏制中国的经济影响至关重要。迄今为止被征收关税的 14 个国家的领导人希望在未来三周内进行谈判，以便在更高的税率对进口商品征收之前达成协议。</p>
</div><p>“I would say that every case I’m treating them better than they treated us over the years,” Trump said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我会说，在每一个案例中，我对他们的待遇都比他们多年来对我们的待遇要好，” 特朗普说。</p>
</div><p>Three possible outcomes</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三种可能的结果</p>
</div><p>His approach is at odds with how major trade agreements have been produced over the last half-century, detailed sessions that could sometimes take years to solve complex differences between nations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的做法与过去半个世纪主要贸易协议的产生方式相悖，这些协议通常需要详细的会议，有时需要数年才能解决国家之间的复杂分歧。</p>
</div><p>There are three possible outcomes to this political and economic wager, each of which could drastically reshape international affairs and Trump's legacy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对此政治和经济赌注有三种可能的结果，每一种都可能彻底重塑国际事务和特朗普的遗产。</p>
</div><p>Trump could prove most economic experts wrong and the tariffs could deliver growth as promised. Or he could retreat again on tariffs before their Aug. 1 start in a repeat of the “Trump Always Chickens Out” phenomenon, also known as TACO. Or he could damage the economy in ways that could boomerang against the communities that helped return him to the White House last year, as well as hurt countries that are put at a financial disadvantage by the tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普可能会证明大多数经济专家是错误的，关税可能如承诺的那样带来增长。或者他可能在 8 月 1 日开始之前再次退缩，重演 “特朗普总是退缩” 的现象，也称为 TACO。或者他可能以某种方式损害经济，这可能会反噬那些帮助他去年重返白宫的社区，并伤害那些因关税而处于经济劣势的国家。</p>
</div><p>Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said Trump's letters had “extended his tariff purgatory for another month,” essentially freezing in place the U.S. economy as CEOs, foreign leaders and consumers are unclear of Trump's actual strategy on foreign trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>俄勒冈州民主党参议员罗恩·怀登表示，特朗普的信件 “将他的关税炼狱延长了一个月”，基本上使美国经济冻结，因为首席执行官、外国领导人和消费者对特朗普在对外贸易上的实际战略感到不确定。</p>
</div><p>“The TACO negotiating tactic pioneered by Trump is making his threats less and less credible and reducing our trading partners’ willingness to even meet us halfway,” Wyden said. “There’s no sign that he’s any closer to striking durable trade deals that would actually help American workers and businesses.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“特朗普开创的 TACO 谈判策略使他的威胁变得越来越不可信，减少了我们的贸易伙伴甚至愿意与我们妥协的意愿，” 怀登说。“没有迹象表明他更接近达成真正有利于美国工人和企业的持久贸易协议。”</p>
</div><p>So far, the stock and bond markets are relatively calm, with the S&amp;P 500 stock index essentially flat Tuesday after a Monday decline. Trump is coming off a legislative win with his multitrillion-dollar income tax cuts. And he's confidently levying tariffs at levels that previously rocked global markets, buoyed by the fact that inflation has eased so far instead of accelerating as many economists and Democratic rivals had warned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，股票和债券市场相对平静，标准普尔 500 指数在周二基本持平，此前周一有所下跌。特朗普刚刚在他的万亿收入税减免中取得立法胜利。他自信地征收关税，税率曾使全球市场震荡，受到通货膨胀迄今已缓解而非加速的事实的支持，尽管许多经济学家和民主党对手曾警告过。</p>
</div><p>“By floating tariffs as high as 40% to even 100%, the administration has ‘normalized’ the 25% tariff hikes — yet this is still one of the most aggressive and disruptive tariff moves in modern history,&#34; said Wendong Zhang, an economist at Cornell University. &#34;This gradual unveiling, paradoxically, risks normalizing what would otherwise be considered exceptionally large tariff hikes.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“通过将关税提高到 40% 甚至 100%，政府已经 ‘正常化’ 了 25% 的关税上涨——然而这仍然是现代历史上最具攻击性和破坏性的关税举措之一，” 康奈尔大学经济学家张文东表示。“这种逐步揭示，矛盾地，冒着正常化本应被视为异常大的关税上涨的风险。”</p>
</div><p>Questions about how much money tariffs will generate</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于关税将产生多少收入的问题</p>
</div><p>With Trump's 90-day tariff negotiation period ending, he has so far sent letters to 14 countries that place taxes on imported goods ranging from 25% to 40%. He said he would sign an order Tuesday to place 50% tariffs on copper and said at the Cabinet meeting that at some point pharmaceutical drugs could face tariffs of as much as 200%. All of that is on top of his existing 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, 25% tariffs on autos and his separate import taxes on Canada, Mexico and China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着特朗普的 90 天关税谈判期结束，他迄今已向 14 个国家发送了信件，对进口商品征收 25% 至 40% 的税。他表示，周二将签署命令，对铜征收 50% 的关税，并在内阁会议上表示，某些药品可能面临高达 200% 的关税。所有这些都是在他现有的 50% 钢铁和铝关税、25% 汽车关税以及对加拿大、墨西哥和中国的单独进口税之上。</p>
</div><p>“The obvious inference is that markets for now are somewhat skeptical that Trump will go through with it, or alternatively they think compromises will be reached,” said Ben May, a director of global economic research at the consultancy Oxford Economics. “That’s probably the key element.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“显而易见的推论是，市场目前对特朗普是否会付诸实践持怀疑态度，或者他们认为会达成妥协，” 牛津经济咨询公司的全球经济研究主任本·梅说。“这可能是关键因素。”</p>
</div><p>May said the tariffs are likely to reduce the growth in U.S. household incomes, but not cause those incomes to shrink outright.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>梅表示，关税可能会减少美国家庭收入的增长，但不会导致这些收入直接缩水。</p>
</div><p>Trump has said his tariffs would close U.S. trade imbalances, though it's unclear why he would target nations such as Tunisia that do relatively little trade with America. Administration officials say trillions of dollars in tariff revenues over the next decade would help offset the revenue losses from the continuation and expansion of his 2017 tax cuts that were signed into law Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普表示，他的关税将缩小美国的贸易失衡，尽管不清楚他为何会针对与美国贸易相对较少的国家，如突尼斯。政府官员表示，未来十年数万亿美元的关税收入将有助于弥补他于周五签署的 2017 年税收减免的收入损失。</p>
</div><p>The federal government has collected $98.2 billion in tariff revenues so far this year, more than double what it collected last year, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据两党政策中心的数据，联邦政府今年迄今已收取 982 亿美元的关税收入，超过去年收取的两倍。</p>
</div><p>At Tuesday's Cabinet meeting, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariff revenues could be “well over $300 billion by the end of the year.” Bessent added that “we don’t agree” with the Congressional Budget Office estimate that tariffs would bring in $2.8 trillion over 10 years, “which we think is probably low.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周二的内阁会议上，财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，到年底关税收入可能 “超过 3000 亿美元”。贝森特补充说，“我们不同意” 国会预算办公室的估计，即关税在 10 年内将带来 2.8 万亿美元的收入，“我们认为这个估计可能偏低。”</p>
</div><p>The governments of Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and South Africa have each said they hope for further negotiations on tariffs with Trump, though it's unclear how that's possible as Trump has said it would be too “complicated” to hold all those meetings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本、韩国、马来西亚、缅甸、泰国、柬埔寨和南非的政府都表示希望与特朗普进一步就关税进行谈判，尽管尚不清楚这如何可能，因为特朗普表示召开所有这些会议将 “太复杂”。</p>
</div><p>Instead on Tuesday, Trump posted on social media that the tariffs would be charged as scheduled starting Aug. 1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，特朗普在周二通过社交媒体发布消息，称关税将按计划于 8 月 1 日开始征收。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change,&#34; Trump said on Truth Social. “No extensions will be granted. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这个日期没有变化，也不会有变化，” 特朗普在 Truth Social 上说。“不会给予任何延期。感谢您对此事的关注！”</p>
</div><h2>Where Should You Invest $1,000 Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you make your next trade, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你进行下一笔交易之前，你会想听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。</p>
</div><p>Our team has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and none of the big name stocks were on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的团队已经确定了五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向他们的客户推荐在市场广泛关注之前购买……而且没有一只大牌股票在名单上。</p>
</div><p>They believe these five stocks are the five best companies for investors to buy now...</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们认为这五只股票是投资者现在应该购买的五家最佳公司……</p>
</div><p>See The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

Trump's previous tariffs terrified the world economy. He's betting this time is different

- 特朗普宣布新一轮关税，计划对日本和韩国征收 25% 关税。  
- 14 个国家希望在三周内进行谈判以避免更高关税。  
- 关税收入预计将超过 3000 亿美元，可能影响美国家庭收入增长。  

特朗普之前的关税政策曾令全球经济恐慌。这次他押注情况会有所不同