<p>沃伦·巴菲特曾著名地称赞 iPhone 制造商 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL）为 “我所知道的世界上最好的商业。” 多年来，它一直是巴菲特最喜欢的股票之一，并且在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A 0.14%）（BRK.B -0.13%）的投资组合中占据了重要地位。</p>
<p>但尽管它仍然是投资组合中的最大持股，但这种情况可能不会持续太久。以下是可能发生这种情况的原因以及这对投资者的意义。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQwMTIvYS1wZXJzb24tcmV2aWV3aW5nLWEtZmluYW5jaWFsLXJlcG9ydC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQwMTIvYS1wZXJzb24tcmV2aWV3aW5nLWEtZmluYW5jaWFsLXJlcG9ydC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>苹果不再是巴菲特最大的持股</h2>
<p>不久之前，苹果轻松成为伯克希尔投资组合中最大的持股，且差距非常明显。截至 2023 年底，苹果占整个投资组合的一半，市值超过 1740 亿美元。第二大持股是 <strong>美国银行</strong>，仅占投资组合的 10%，当时市值略低于 350 亿美元。苹果跌至第二位的想法根本无法想象。</p>
<p>然而，自那时以来，巴菲特一直在出售苹果股票，而这家科技巨头的股价也在下跌，这导致今天伯克希尔的投资组合构成发生了很大变化。截至 3 月底，伯克希尔在苹果的持股已减少三分之二，市值接近 670 亿美元。尽管这仍然足以保持第一的位置，占所有持股的 26%，但第二大持股 <strong>美国运通</strong> 占投资组合的 16%，市值接近 410 亿美元。</p>
<p>如今，差距更小，苹果在伯克希尔投资组合中的占比仅略低于 22%，而美国运通的占比接近 17%。</p>
<h2>苹果会完全退出伯克希尔的投资组合吗？</h2>
<p>苹果多年来一直是巴菲特心爱的股票，但由于对资本利得税率上升的担忧，这位亿万富翁投资者正在大幅减少其在这家科技巨头的持股。即使巴菲特不再出售任何苹果股票，股价的下跌估值也可能导致其在不久的将来跌至基金的第二大持股。</p>
<p>在过去的 12 个月里，苹果的股价下跌了 6%，而美国运通在此期间上涨了超过 37%（截至 7 月 7 日的回报）。投资者对苹果的看法悲观，原因是其最新 iPhone 的人工智能（AI）功能推出缓慢。如果没有重大变化以及说服投资者其仍然是一个良好增长股票的方式，且业务没有落后于竞争对手，这一 downward trend 可能会持续。</p>
<p>从长远来看，我甚至可以看到苹果永久性地离开伯克希尔投资组合。巴菲特今年将辞去首席执行官职务，届时格雷格·阿贝尔将接任。在新领导下，可能会有更大的变化，包括可能退出苹果的持股，转而选择那些在 AI 增长方面可能更具优势的股票。虽然这并不是保证，但这可能是一个合理的情景，特别是如果苹果难以证明其能够跟上主要竞争对手的步伐。</p>
<h2>苹果仍然值得投资吗？</h2>
<p>苹果是否在伯克希尔的投资组合中不应决定你是否购买该股票。短期内可能会影响股票，因为巴菲特的粉丝可能会跟随出售苹果的股票。</p>
<p>然而，最终，是否购买该股票应取决于你的长期投资策略。如果你愿意耐心投资于一只财务状况极佳的蓝筹股，包括每年约 1000 亿美元的自由现金流，那么今天将其纳入你的投资组合可能是一个不错的选择。</p>
<p>尽管苹果未来可能面临波动，但凭借强大的产品生态系统和充足的资源，我相信该公司能够在 AI 领域成为重要参与者并扭转局面——这只是需要多长时间的问题。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>沃伦·巴菲特对苹果（AAPL）的投资一直很重要，但最近的趋势显示出潜在的变化。截至 2023 年 3 月，苹果在伯克希尔哈撒韦投资组合中的份额已降至 22% 以下，美国运通紧随其后，接近 17%。对资本利得税上升的担忧以及苹果人工智能推广缓慢导致巴菲特减少了他的持股。随着巴菲特辞去首席执行官职务，未来的投资策略变化可能进一步影响苹果的地位。尽管市场波动，苹果仍然是那些拥有长期投资策略的投资者的强劲投资选择</p>

<p>Warren Buffett has famously referred to iPhone maker <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL) as &#34;probably the best business I know in the world.&#34; It's long been one of Buffett's favorite stocks, and it has been a staple in the <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.14%) (BRK.B -0.13%) portfolio for years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特曾著名地称赞 iPhone 制造商 <strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL）为 “我所知道的世界上最好的商业。” 多年来，它一直是巴菲特最喜欢的股票之一，并且在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A 0.14%）（BRK.B -0.13%）的投资组合中占据了重要地位。</p>
</div><p>But while it still remains the top holding in the portfolio, it may not stay in that position for much longer. Here's why that could happen and what it might mean for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但尽管它仍然是投资组合中的最大持股，但这种情况可能不会持续太久。以下是可能发生这种情况的原因以及这对投资者的意义。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQwMTIvYS1wZXJzb24tcmV2aWV3aW5nLWEtZmluYW5jaWFsLXJlcG9ydC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824012%2Fa-person-reviewing-a-financial-report.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple is no longer far and away the biggest Buffett holding</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果不再是巴菲特最大的持股</h2>
</div><p>It wasn't all that long ago when Apple was easily the largest holding in Berkshire's portfolio, and it wasn't even close. As of the end of 2023, Apple accounted for half of the entire portfolio and was worth more than $174 billion. The next-largest holding was <strong>Bank of America</strong>, which accounted for just 10% of the portfolio and was worth a little less than $35 billion at the time. The idea of Apple falling in the second spot just didn't look like a conceivable scenario.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不久之前，苹果轻松成为伯克希尔投资组合中最大的持股，且差距非常明显。截至 2023 年底，苹果占整个投资组合的一半，市值超过 1740 亿美元。第二大持股是 <strong>美国银行</strong>，仅占投资组合的 10%，当时市值略低于 350 亿美元。苹果跌至第二位的想法根本无法想象。</p>
</div><p>However, with Buffett selling Apple stock since then and shares of the tech giant also falling, that has resulted in a much different makeup of Berkshire's portfolio today. Berkshire's position in Apple has been trimmed by two-thirds and was worth nearly $67 billion as of the end of March. While that was still good enough for the top spot and represented 26% of all holdings, the second spot, which belonged to <strong>American Express</strong>, accounted for 16% of the portfolio and was worth nearly $41 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，自那时以来，巴菲特一直在出售苹果股票，而这家科技巨头的股价也在下跌，这导致今天伯克希尔的投资组合构成发生了很大变化。截至 3 月底，伯克希尔在苹果的持股已减少三分之二，市值接近 670 亿美元。尽管这仍然足以保持第一的位置，占所有持股的 26%，但第二大持股 <strong>美国运通</strong> 占投资组合的 16%，市值接近 410 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Today, the gap is even thinner, with Apple's share of the Berkshire portfolio coming in at just under 22% versus nearly 17% for American Express.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，差距更小，苹果在伯克希尔投资组合中的占比仅略低于 22%，而美国运通的占比接近 17%。</p>
</div><h2>Could Apple fall out of Berkshire's portfolio entirely?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果会完全退出伯克希尔的投资组合吗？</h2>
</div><p>Apple has been a beloved Buffett stock for years, but amid fears of a rising capital gains tax rate, the billionaire investor has been drastically reducing his company's position in the tech giant. Even if Buffett doesn't sell any more Apple shares, the stock's falling valuation could lead to it falling to the second-largest holding in the fund in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果多年来一直是巴菲特心爱的股票，但由于对资本利得税率上升的担忧，这位亿万富翁投资者正在大幅减少其在这家科技巨头的持股。即使巴菲特不再出售任何苹果股票，股价的下跌估值也可能导致其在不久的将来跌至基金的第二大持股。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Apple are down 6% over the past 12 months, while American Express has risen by more than 37% over that stretch (returns as of July 7). Investors have been bearish on Apple over the slow rollout of artificial intelligence (AI) features for its latest iPhone. Without a drastic change and a way to convince investors that it's still a good growth stock and the business isn't falling behind its rivals, this downward trend may continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的 12 个月里，苹果的股价下跌了 6%，而美国运通在此期间上涨了超过 37%（截至 7 月 7 日的回报）。投资者对苹果的看法悲观，原因是其最新 iPhone 的人工智能（AI）功能推出缓慢。如果没有重大变化以及说服投资者其仍然是一个良好增长股票的方式，且业务没有落后于竞争对手，这一 downward trend 可能会持续。</p>
</div><p>In the longer term, I could see Apple even leaving the Berkshire portfolio permanently. Buffett is stepping down as CEO this year, at which point Greg Abel will take over. Under new leadership, there could be greater changes ahead, including potentially exiting the company's position in Apple and opting for stocks that may be better positioned for growth in AI. While that's not a guarantee, it may be a plausible scenario, especially if Apple struggles to show that it can keep up with its key competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从长远来看，我甚至可以看到苹果永久性地离开伯克希尔投资组合。巴菲特今年将辞去首席执行官职务，届时格雷格·阿贝尔将接任。在新领导下，可能会有更大的变化，包括可能退出苹果的持股，转而选择那些在 AI 增长方面可能更具优势的股票。虽然这并不是保证，但这可能是一个合理的情景，特别是如果苹果难以证明其能够跟上主要竞争对手的步伐。</p>
</div><h2>Is Apple still worth investing in?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果仍然值得投资吗？</h2>
</div><p>Whether Apple is or isn't in Berkshire's portfolio shouldn't dictate whether you buy the stock or not. It may impact the stock in the short term as Buffett fans may follow suit and sell shares of Apple as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果是否在伯克希尔的投资组合中不应决定你是否购买该股票。短期内可能会影响股票，因为巴菲特的粉丝可能会跟随出售苹果的股票。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, however, whether you buy the stock or not should depend on your long-term investing strategy. If you're willing to be patient and invest in a blue chip stock that has phenomenal financials, including annual free cash flow of around $100 billion, then this can be a good investment to put into your portfolio today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最终，是否购买该股票应取决于你的长期投资策略。如果你愿意耐心投资于一只财务状况极佳的蓝筹股，包括每年约 1000 亿美元的自由现金流，那么今天将其纳入你的投资组合可能是一个不错的选择。</p>
</div><p>While it may be a volatile road ahead for Apple, with a strong ecosystem of products and ample resources at its disposal, I'm confident the company can be a big player in AI and turn things around -- it's just a matter of how long it may take for that to happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果未来可能面临波动，但凭借强大的产品生态系统和充足的资源，我相信该公司能够在 AI 领域成为重要参与者并扭转局面——这只是需要多长时间的问题。</p>
</div>

苹果是否会很快失去其在巴菲特投资组合中的首要地位？

- 苹果公司在巴菲特的投资组合中仍占据首位，但份额正在缩减。  
- 巴菲特因资本利得税上升的担忧，已大幅减持苹果股票。  
- 苹果未来可能被迫退出巴菲特的投资组合，投资者需关注其长期增长潜力。

苹果是否会很快失去其在沃伦·巴菲特投资组合中的首要地位？