<p>人工智能已经在市场上掀起了风暴。自互联网繁荣以来，可能没有哪个行业能引起如此大的关注，而目前看起来人工智能行业仍处于初期阶段。这并不意味着它不会在发展过程中遇到挫折，进展也可能不是线性的。但这也意味着，今天的市场领导者在五年、十年或二十年后可能会变得更大。</p>
<p>事实上，投资者对该行业的乐观情绪如此高涨，以至于一些人工智能公司的市值已经飙升至数万亿美元，这在以前可能是不可想象的。尤其是一家公司，市值接近 4 万亿美元，而一位华尔街分析师认为，这场盛宴才刚刚开始，未来 12 个月内还有显著的收益可期。</p>
<h2>无敌的芯片之王</h2>
<p>人工智能芯片之王 <strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia，NVDA 1.10%）似乎是无敌的，被视为人工智能的终极投资选择。即使面临挑战，股票下跌也不会持续太久。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQwOTcvYWktcGljLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQwOTcvYWktcGljLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>仅在今年，英伟达就面临了许多挑战。首先，中国公司 DeepSeek 在今年早些时候让人工智能投资者感到恐慌，因为它声称开发了一款与 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 相媲美的人工智能聊天机器人，成本却低得多。然而，自那时以来，许多人质疑 DeepSeek 在开发过程中实际投入的资源。</p>
<p>然后，唐纳德·特朗普总统的政府对英伟达某些芯片实施了广泛的关税和出口限制，这严重威胁到英伟达进入中国市场的能力，而中国市场一直是该公司的重要收入来源。虽然关税最终可能比最初想象的更易于管理，但考虑到所有这些挑战，英伟达的股票今年上涨了近 15%，市值达到了 3.86 万亿美元，使其成为最大的上市公司（截至 7 月 7 日）。</p>
<h2>下一个目标：超过 6 万亿美元</h2>
<p>在 6 月底，Loop Capital 分析师 Ananda Baruah 成为华尔街对英伟达最看好的分析师，给出了 250 美元的目标价，暗示市值将超过 6 万亿美元。</p>
<p>Baruah 认为，英伟达的下一步增长将受到像 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 这样的超大规模企业更强劲支出的推动，这些公司计划将其人工智能相关基础设施的支出从总基础设施的 15% 提高到 2028 年的 50% 以上。</p>
<p>Baruah 还预计，未来几年人工智能工厂需求的上升将在英伟达的故事中发挥重要作用。到 2028 年，人工智能加速器和生成式人工智能的支出可能增加 2000 亿美元，而这些工厂的千兆瓦需求可能为英伟达创造 4500 亿到 9000 亿美元的市场机会。更复杂的人工智能推理模型也可能导致对英伟达人工智能服务器的更多支出。</p>
<p>Baruah 预计，数据中心的收入将从目前的 1150 亿美元翻倍，达到 2028 财年的 3670 亿美元，而英伟达 “在关键技术上基本上保持垄断地位”。</p>
<p>或许较少被讨论的是英伟达在机器人领域的努力，这开始受到市场的更多关注。该公司最近发布了一款名为 AEON 的新型类人机器人，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋表示，类人机器人理想情况下能够完成家务，可能会成为 “有史以来最大的行业之一”，根据《巴伦周刊》的报道。分析师们已经预测，到 2030 年代初，英伟达的机器人和汽车部门的收入将增长 344%。</p>
<h2>这只股票值得买吗？</h2>
<p>华尔街分析师对英伟达的乐观并不令人意外，该公司在过去五年中回报率达到 1420%。英伟达能够克服每一个障碍，未来看起来光明。</p>
<p>从估值的角度来看，英伟达的市盈率为 37 倍，超过其五年平均水平约 34.3 倍，因此从历史上看，这只股票并不便宜。还有人担心该公司可能过度盈利，未来可能无法对其芯片收取如此高的价格。由于监管环境，中国仍然是该公司的一个痛点，而对人工智能数据中心支出和工厂需求的三年市场预测在很大程度上是推测。</p>
<p>但英伟达显然仍是市场领导者，拥有显著的定价权。人工智能仍可能处于早期阶段，该公司将很难被取代，因此我认为投资者当然可以购买这只股票。然而，考虑到高估值，进行定投可能是最佳选择。市场仍处于历史高位，因此市场情绪的下降可能导致大规模抛售，并且即使对于像英伟达这样的巨头来说，也可能难以摆脱这种局面。</p>

<p>英伟达的市值接近 4 万亿美元，华尔街分析师 Ananda Baruah 预测目标价为 250 美元，暗示其潜在增长可超过 6 万亿美元。尽管面临挑战，英伟达的股票今年上涨了 15%。分析师预计，尤其是亚马逊和微软等大型公司的人工智能相关支出将显著增加。英伟达的机器人部门也引起了关注，预计将实现可观的收入增长。虽然该股票并不便宜，但它仍然是市场领导者，拥有强大的定价能力，因此对于投资者来说是一个潜在的买入选择，但由于估值较高，仍需谨慎</p>

<p>Artificial intelligence has taken the market by storm. There likely hasn't been a sector with this much interest since the internet boom, and it still looks like the AI sector is in the early innings. That doesn't mean it won't stumble along the way, and progress may not be linear, either. But it also means that market leaders today could be even bigger in five, 10, or 20 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能已经在市场上掀起了风暴。自互联网繁荣以来，可能没有哪个行业能引起如此大的关注，而目前看起来人工智能行业仍处于初期阶段。这并不意味着它不会在发展过程中遇到挫折，进展也可能不是线性的。但这也意味着，今天的市场领导者在五年、十年或二十年后可能会变得更大。</p>
</div><p>In fact, investors are so bullish on the sector that some AI names have already been run up to multitrillion-dollar market caps, which once might have been unimaginable. One company in particular is nearing a $4 trillion market cap, and one Wall Street analyst thinks the party has only just begun, with significant gains to be made over the next 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，投资者对该行业的乐观情绪如此高涨，以至于一些人工智能公司的市值已经飙升至数万亿美元，这在以前可能是不可想象的。尤其是一家公司，市值接近 4 万亿美元，而一位华尔街分析师认为，这场盛宴才刚刚开始，未来 12 个月内还有显著的收益可期。</p>
</div><h2>The invincible chip king</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>无敌的芯片之王</h2>
</div><p>The AI chip king, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.10%), is seemingly invincible and is viewed as the ultimate pick-and-shovel play for AI. Even when challenges present themselves and the stock stumbles, it doesn't last very long.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能芯片之王 <strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia，NVDA 1.10%）似乎是无敌的，被视为人工智能的终极投资选择。即使面临挑战，股票下跌也不会持续太久。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQwOTcvYWktcGljLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824097%2Fai-pic-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>This year alone, Nvidia has faced numerous challenges. First, the Chinese company DeepSeek put a serious scare into AI investors earlier this year after it supposedly developed an AI chatbot that rivaled OpenAI's ChatGPT at a fraction of the cost. However, since then, many have questioned the amount of resources that actually went into building DeepSeek.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅在今年，英伟达就面临了许多挑战。首先，中国公司 DeepSeek 在今年早些时候让人工智能投资者感到恐慌，因为它声称开发了一款与 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 相媲美的人工智能聊天机器人，成本却低得多。然而，自那时以来，许多人质疑 DeepSeek 在开发过程中实际投入的资源。</p>
</div><p>Then, President Donald Trump's administration launched wide-ranging tariffs and export restrictions on certain chips made by Nvidia that seriously threatened Nvidia's ability to penetrate the Chinese market, which has been a significant source of revenue for the company. While tariffs may end up being more manageable than initially thought, considering all of these challenges, it's pretty remarkable that Nvidia's stock is now up close to 15% this year and has risen to a $3.86 trillion market cap, making it the largest publicly traded company (as of July 7).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后，唐纳德·特朗普总统的政府对英伟达某些芯片实施了广泛的关税和出口限制，这严重威胁到英伟达进入中国市场的能力，而中国市场一直是该公司的重要收入来源。虽然关税最终可能比最初想象的更易于管理，但考虑到所有这些挑战，英伟达的股票今年上涨了近 15%，市值达到了 3.86 万亿美元，使其成为最大的上市公司（截至 7 月 7 日）。</p>
</div><h2>Next stop: $6 trillion+</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>下一个目标：超过 6 万亿美元</h2>
</div><p>In late June, Loop Capital Analyst Ananda Baruah became Nvidia's biggest bull on Wall Street, issuing a $250 price target for the stock, implying a market cap of over $6 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 6 月底，Loop Capital 分析师 Ananda Baruah 成为华尔街对英伟达最看好的分析师，给出了 250 美元的目标价，暗示市值将超过 6 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Baruah sees Nvidia's next leg higher being fueled by even more intense spending by hyperscalers like <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, which are poised to increase spending on graphics processing units (GPUs) and accelerators as these companies increase their AI-related infrastructure from 15% of their total infrastructure to over 50% by 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Baruah 认为，英伟达的下一步增长将受到像 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 这样的超大规模企业更强劲支出的推动，这些公司计划将其人工智能相关基础设施的支出从总基础设施的 15% 提高到 2028 年的 50% 以上。</p>
</div><p>Baruah also expects rising AI factory demand to play a big part in the Nvidia story over the next couple of years. AI accelerator and generative AI spending could rise by $2 trillion by 2028, while gigawatt demand for these factories could create a pipeline for Nvidia of $450 billion to $900 billion over the next few years. More intensive AI reasoning models could also lead to more spending on Nvidia's AI servers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Baruah 还预计，未来几年人工智能工厂需求的上升将在英伟达的故事中发挥重要作用。到 2028 年，人工智能加速器和生成式人工智能的支出可能增加 2000 亿美元，而这些工厂的千兆瓦需求可能为英伟达创造 4500 亿到 9000 亿美元的市场机会。更复杂的人工智能推理模型也可能导致对英伟达人工智能服务器的更多支出。</p>
</div><p>Baruah is modeling for data center revenue to more than double from $115 billion now to $367 billion by fiscal year 2028, and Nvidia &#34;remains essentially a monopoly for critical tech.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Baruah 预计，数据中心的收入将从目前的 1150 亿美元翻倍，达到 2028 财年的 3670 亿美元，而英伟达 “在关键技术上基本上保持垄断地位”。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps less discussed is Nvidia's robotics efforts, which are starting to get more attention from the market. The company recently released a new humanoid robot called AEON, and Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang has called humanoid robots, which would ideally be able to complete household chores, possibly &#34;one of the largest industries ever,&#34; according to Barrons. Analysts are already projecting a 344% rise in revenue in Nvidia's robotics and auto division by the early 2030s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或许较少被讨论的是英伟达在机器人领域的努力，这开始受到市场的更多关注。该公司最近发布了一款名为 AEON 的新型类人机器人，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋表示，类人机器人理想情况下能够完成家务，可能会成为 “有史以来最大的行业之一”，根据《巴伦周刊》的报道。分析师们已经预测，到 2030 年代初，英伟达的机器人和汽车部门的收入将增长 344%。</p>
</div><h2>Is the stock a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这只股票值得买吗？</h2>
</div><p>It's no surprise to see Wall Street analysts bullish on Nvidia, which has returned 1,420% over the last five years. Nvidia has been able to overcome every obstacle thrown its way, and the future looks bright.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街分析师对英伟达的乐观并不令人意外，该公司在过去五年中回报率达到 1420%。英伟达能够克服每一个障碍，未来看起来光明。</p>
</div><p>From a valuation perspective, Nvidia trades at 37 times forward earnings, above its five-year average of roughly 34.3 times, so the stock is not cheap, historically speaking. There are also concerns that the company may be overearning and may not be able to charge as much for its chips in the future. China still looks to be a sore spot for the company due to the regulatory environment, and three-year market projections on AI data center spend and factory demand are largely conjecture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从估值的角度来看，英伟达的市盈率为 37 倍，超过其五年平均水平约 34.3 倍，因此从历史上看，这只股票并不便宜。还有人担心该公司可能过度盈利，未来可能无法对其芯片收取如此高的价格。由于监管环境，中国仍然是该公司的一个痛点，而对人工智能数据中心支出和工厂需求的三年市场预测在很大程度上是推测。</p>
</div><p>But Nvidia is still clearly the market leader and has significant pricing power. It's still likely the early innings for AI, and the company will be difficult to dethrone, so I think investors can certainly buy the stock. However, given the elevated valuation, it may be best to practice dollar-cost averaging. The market is still at all-time highs, so a decline in market sentiment could lead to a big sell-off and be difficult to shake off -- even for a juggernaut like Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但英伟达显然仍是市场领导者，拥有显著的定价权。人工智能仍可能处于早期阶段，该公司将很难被取代，因此我认为投资者当然可以购买这只股票。然而，考虑到高估值，进行定投可能是最佳选择。市场仍处于历史高位，因此市场情绪的下降可能导致大规模抛售，并且即使对于像英伟达这样的巨头来说，也可能难以摆脱这种局面。</p>
</div>

1 Market-Crushing AI Stock Is Closing in on a $4 Trillion Market Cap, and 1 Wall Street Analyst Thinks There Is Another 57% Upside

- 人工智能市场持续火热，Nvidia 市值接近 3.86 万亿美元。
- 分析师预计 Nvidia 未来 12 个月将有显著增长，目标市值超 6 万亿美元。
- 尽管面临挑战，Nvidia 仍是市场领导者，未来前景乐观。

Motley Fool

微软

英伟达

亚马逊

C3.ai

一只市场表现强劲的 AI 股票正在接近 4 万亿美元的市值，而一位华尔街分析师认为还有 57% 的上涨潜力