<p>七年前，市场首次出现了市值达到 1 万亿美元的公司，当时 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL) 突破了这一门槛。从那时起，许多公司也达到了万亿市值。根据一些分析师的观点，可能不久之后就会出现市值达到 5 万亿美元的股票。</p>
<p><strong>微软</strong>(MSFT) 和 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA) 是当今世界上最有价值的股票之一。它们的交易价格创下了历史新高，估值也并不低。然而，分析师们预计这些科技股还有更大的上涨空间。这些科技巨头的预测是否过于乐观，还是现在仍然是投资它们的好时机？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQwMTQvYS1jb3VwbGUtb2YtaW52ZXN0b3JzLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1zZXJpZXMtb2YtY2hhcnRzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQwMTQvYS1jb3VwbGUtb2YtaW52ZXN0b3JzLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1zZXJpZXMtb2YtY2hhcnRzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>争夺 5 万亿美元估值的竞赛</h2>
<p>苹果、微软和英伟达通常是世界上最有价值的公司。然而，最近微软和英伟达在苹果之间拉开了一些距离，现在稳居前两名。截至 7 月 7 日，英伟达以近 3.9 万亿美元的市值成为最有价值的公司。在如此高的估值下，它达到 4 万亿美元的门槛只是时间问题。</p>
<p>对于芯片制造商英伟达来说，要达到 5 万亿美元的市值，它需要从现在的水平上涨不到 30%。而市值为 3.7 万亿美元的微软，这需要上涨超过 35% 才能达到。Wedbush 的分析师认为，这两者中的一个可能在未来 18 个月内达到 5 万亿美元的估值。</p>
<p>价格目标可能会有所不同，但根据共识平均水平，微软的上涨空间约为 6%，而英伟达约为 11%。但随着时间的推移，并假设更多分析师上调他们的价格目标，这一共识平均水平将会上升。</p>
<h2>这些股票是否已经太贵？</h2>
<p>这些公司估值很高，但多年来它们的增长速度也令人印象深刻。以下是这三大巨头在各自的市盈率 (P/E) 倍数上的比较。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/356d12ac20c3f9fc25340bfe5a4fb0d8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/356d12ac20c3f9fc25340bfe5a4fb0d8.png"/></p>
<p>PE 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>平均 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数股票的市盈率倍数为 24，这意味着这两只股票的交易价格都处于相当高的溢价水平，而市场已经显得火热并创下历史新高。另一种将此放入背景的方法是将这些估值与这些公司在最近几个季度所取得的增长率进行比较。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4035b108f4d5010e5cea938dac316615.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4035b108f4d5010e5cea938dac316615.png"/></p>
<p>增长率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>如果一家公司以快速的速度增长，那么支付高溢价是可以理解的，尤其是在预期仍然很高的情况下。与微软相比，英伟达在盈利方面的价格要高得多，其增长率也远高于微软，这得益于其在人工智能芯片市场的主导地位。</p>
<p>然而，潜在的技术支出放缓可能由于关税和贸易战而削弱这些公司的增长前景，从而使它们的投资价值下降。</p>
<h2>投资英伟达或微软是否为时已晚？</h2>
<p>英伟达和微软都是高盈利且强大的投资业务。然而，期待它们在不久的将来达到 5 万亿美元估值的问题在于，科技行业需要存在最佳的情景，并且人工智能支出需要保持强劲。如果经济放缓，我不相信这一点会发生，这就是我认为目前对这些科技股的预期可能过于高涨的原因；它们的价格已经显得过于乐观。</p>
<p>但如果你计划投资至少五年，那么这两只股票仍然可以是你投资组合中的良好投资。它们是最安全的投资之一。尽管它们在短期内可能会经历波动，但从长期来看，它们的价值仍然可能显著上升。</p>

微软

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>分析师对微软和英伟达的看法越来越乐观，两者的市值均接近 4 万亿美元。英伟达以 3.9 万亿美元的市值领先，而微软则以 3.7 万亿美元紧随其后。分析师预测在 18 个月内有可能达到 5 万亿美元的估值，但对高市盈率和潜在的科技支出放缓表示担忧。尽管存在这些风险，两家公司仍被视为强劲的长期投资，尽管当前的估值可能反映出过度乐观。投资者应考虑长期投资以获取潜在收益</p>

<p>It was seven years ago that the market saw its first 1 trillion-dollar company, when <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL) crossed that threshold. Since then, many more have reached trillion-dollar valuations. And according to some analysts, it may not be long before there is a stock that's worth $5 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七年前，市场首次出现了市值达到 1 万亿美元的公司，当时 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL) 突破了这一门槛。从那时起，许多公司也达到了万亿市值。根据一些分析师的观点，可能不久之后就会出现市值达到 5 万亿美元的股票。</p>
</div><p><strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT) and <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA) are among the most highly valued stocks in the world today. They are trading at record levels and their valuations aren't exactly modest. And yet, analysts are projecting much more upside for these tech stocks. Are forecasts getting a bit too rosy for these tech giants, or can it still be a good time to invest in them?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微软</strong>(MSFT) 和 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA) 是当今世界上最有价值的股票之一。它们的交易价格创下了历史新高，估值也并不低。然而，分析师们预计这些科技股还有更大的上涨空间。这些科技巨头的预测是否过于乐观，还是现在仍然是投资它们的好时机？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQwMTQvYS1jb3VwbGUtb2YtaW52ZXN0b3JzLWxvb2tpbmctYXQtYS1zZXJpZXMtb2YtY2hhcnRzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824014%2Fa-couple-of-investors-looking-at-a-series-of-charts.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The race to a $5 trillion valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>争夺 5 万亿美元估值的竞赛</h2>
</div><p>Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia are routinely among the most valuable companies in the world. Lately, however, Microsoft and Nvidia have been creating some space between Apple and are now firmly in the top two positions. As of July 7, Nvidia held the title as the most valuable company, with a market cap of nearly $3.9 trillion. At such a high valuation, it may only be a matter of time before it reaches the $4 trillion threshold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果、微软和英伟达通常是世界上最有价值的公司。然而，最近微软和英伟达在苹果之间拉开了一些距离，现在稳居前两名。截至 7 月 7 日，英伟达以近 3.9 万亿美元的市值成为最有价值的公司。在如此高的估值下，它达到 4 万亿美元的门槛只是时间问题。</p>
</div><p>For chipmaker Nvidia to get to $5 trillion, it would need to rise by a little less than 30% from where it is right now. Microsoft, the diversified software and hardware company, which has a market cap of $3.7 trillion, would need to rally by more than 35% to get there. Analysts at Wedbush believe that one of these two might reach a $5 trillion valuation within the next 18 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于芯片制造商英伟达来说，要达到 5 万亿美元的市值，它需要从现在的水平上涨不到 30%。而市值为 3.7 万亿美元的微软，这需要上涨超过 35% 才能达到。Wedbush 的分析师认为，这两者中的一个可能在未来 18 个月内达到 5 万亿美元的估值。</p>
</div><p>Price targets can vary, but according to the consensus average, Microsoft has an upside of around 6% while Nvidia is at approximately 11%. But over time, and assuming more analysts upgrade their price targets, that consensus average will rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格目标可能会有所不同，但根据共识平均水平，微软的上涨空间约为 6%，而英伟达约为 11%。但随着时间的推移，并假设更多分析师上调他们的价格目标，这一共识平均水平将会上升。</p>
</div><h2>Are these stocks already too expensive?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这些股票是否已经太贵？</h2>
</div><p>These companies are highly valued, but they've also been growing at impressive rates over the years. Here's how the big three stack up against one another when looking at their respective price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些公司估值很高，但多年来它们的增长速度也令人印象深刻。以下是这三大巨头在各自的市盈率 (P/E) 倍数上的比较。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/356d12ac20c3f9fc25340bfe5a4fb0d8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/356d12ac20c3f9fc25340bfe5a4fb0d8.png"/></p>
<p>PE ratios data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PE 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The average <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index stock trades at a P/E multiple of 24, which would mean that both of these stocks are trading at sizable premiums, in a market which is already looking red hot and hitting record levels. Another way to put this into context is to compare these valuations against the growth rates these companies have been achieving in recent quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 指数股票的市盈率倍数为 24，这意味着这两只股票的交易价格都处于相当高的溢价水平，而市场已经显得火热并创下历史新高。另一种将此放入背景的方法是将这些估值与这些公司在最近几个季度所取得的增长率进行比较。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4035b108f4d5010e5cea938dac316615.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4035b108f4d5010e5cea938dac316615.png"/></p>
<p>Growth rates data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增长率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>If a company is growing at a fast rate, then it can be justifiable to pay a high premium, especially if expectations remain high. Nvidia is much more expensive than Microsoft with respect to earnings, and its growth rate is far higher as well, due to its dominance in the artificial intelligence chip market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果一家公司以快速的速度增长，那么支付高溢价是可以理解的，尤其是在预期仍然很高的情况下。与微软相比，英伟达在盈利方面的价格要高得多，其增长率也远高于微软，这得益于其在人工智能芯片市场的主导地位。</p>
</div><p>The danger, however, is that a potential slowdown due in tech spending due to tariffs and trade wars could undermine the growth prospects of these companies and make them worse buys in the process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，潜在的技术支出放缓可能由于关税和贸易战而削弱这些公司的增长前景，从而使它们的投资价值下降。</p>
</div><h2>Is it too late to invest in Nvidia or Microsoft?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资英伟达或微软是否为时已晚？</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia and Microsoft are highly profitable and strong businesses to invest in. However, the problem with expecting either one of them to hit a $5 trillion valuation in the near future is that a best-case scenario would need to exist for tech, and AI spending would need to remain strong. I'm not convinced that will happen if the economy slows down, and that's why I think that expectations may be getting a bit too high for these tech stocks right now; there is too much optimism priced in, as they already look expensive today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达和微软都是高盈利且强大的投资业务。然而，期待它们在不久的将来达到 5 万亿美元估值的问题在于，科技行业需要存在最佳的情景，并且人工智能支出需要保持强劲。如果经济放缓，我不相信这一点会发生，这就是我认为目前对这些科技股的预期可能过于高涨的原因；它们的价格已经显得过于乐观。</p>
</div><p>But if you're planning to invest for at least five years, then either one of these stocks can still be a good investment to hold in your portfolio. They are among the safest investments to own. And while they may experience volatility in the <em>short term</em>, over the long term, they are still likely to rise significantly in value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果你计划投资至少五年，那么这两只股票仍然可以是你投资组合中的良好投资。它们是最安全的投资之一。尽管它们在短期内可能会经历波动，但从长期来看，它们的价值仍然可能显著上升。</p>
</div>

Are Analysts Getting Too Bullish on Microsoft and Nvidia?

- 苹果、微软和英伟达是全球最有价值的公司。  
- 英伟达市值接近 3.9 万亿美元，微软为 3.7 万亿美元。  
- 分析师预计未来 18 个月内可能有公司达到 5 万亿美元市值。

分析师们对微软和 NVIDIA 的态度是否过于乐观？