<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.54%) 随着其成为消费品巨头，已经成为一项成功的投资，全球安装的活跃设备超过 22 亿台。该公司销售标志性的 iPhone、Mac 及其他消费者热衷的产品——即使它们的价格高于竞争对手。这是因为苹果建立了强大的品牌，这已成为其护城河或竞争优势的一部分。</p><p>这帮助公司显著增长了收益，随着时间的推移，收益达到了数十亿美元，过去十年股价上涨超过 500%。但在最近几个月，苹果面临一个特别的挑战：它在美国以外生产产品。</p><p>随着可能面临的进口关税，收益可能会受到影响。因此，一些投资者已经抛售苹果股票，导致今年上半年股价下跌 18%——估值也随之降低。</p><p>在 2025 年，苹果是买入、卖出还是持有？</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/bbe283296a84d692e1e16c1202f9fa8a?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="475" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/bbe283296a84d692e1e16c1202f9fa8a"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="r8jotc3qt">苹果的市场地位</h2><p>首先，我将考虑积极、消极以及介于两者之间的因素。如前所述，苹果建立了非常稳固的市场地位，销售消费者喜爱的产品。其旗舰产品 iPhone 在全球许多人手中都能看到。</p><p>在 2025 年第一季度，iPhone 型号在 Counterpoint Research 的全球畅销智能手机榜单中占据了前四名。此外，iPhone 型号在去年和前年也占据了榜单的前列。</p><p>这帮助苹果的收入不断增长，得益于全球大量活跃设备，公司也能够增加对用户的服务销售——例如云存储或数字娱乐。事实上，服务收入已经连续几个季度创下新高，显示服务可能成为这个市场巨头下一个重要的收入驱动因素。</p><p>然而，苹果股票在今年年初经历了一段艰难时期，当时特朗普总统最初宣布了对进口商品征收关税的计划。这对苹果来说是一个重大担忧，因为它在中国生产大部分 iPhone，而美国在制定关税计划时对中国给予了极大关注。苹果及其同行尚未显著感受到关税的影响，因为美国将电子产品排除在关税之外——但这一豁免是暂时的，暗示这一挑战可能随时出现。</p><h2 id="swuhl0gwg">来自总统的关注</h2><p>更糟糕的是，总统特别针对苹果表示，如果该公司不将 iPhone 生产转移到美国，可能会面临 25% 的进口关税。与此同时，苹果宣布计划将面向美国市场的 iPhone 生产从中国转移到印度，但问题在于，来自印度的商品也将面临进口关税。</p><p>所有这些因素都对苹果股票造成了压力，导致今年的下跌。</p><p>需要记住的是，尽管特朗普特别提到苹果，但该公司并不是唯一面临这一问题的公司。大多数美国科技巨头在海外制造产品，像苹果一样，如果将生产转移到美国，成本可能会上升。</p><p>这并不是苹果独有的逆风，而是可能影响大部分科技行业的因素——而这一点可能对苹果来说是积极的。美国不太可能施加会对整个行业造成破坏性影响的关税水平，尤其是因为这个行业在推动经济增长方面发挥了重要作用。</p><h2 id="hztmfsab">科技公司的重要性</h2><p>科技股在 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 中占据了重要权重，这意味着如果它们下跌，整个市场都会受到影响。这些公司不仅创造了高收入，而且近年来也在花费数十亿美元进行扩张。所有这些对整体经济都是积极的。</p><p>我乐观地认为，最坏的情况不会发生，苹果不会面临压制增长的成本。也就是说，未来几周和几个月的消息可能会继续对股票造成压力——除非公司与特朗普达成合理的关税和生产协议，这可能会推动股价上涨。</p><p>考虑到这一切，投资者该如何行动？</p><p>很难确切说苹果何时会反弹，但我支持在 2025 年买入或持有苹果股票。如前所述，该公司不太可能面临极端的关税水平，而今天，股票在 29 倍的未来收益预期下看起来便宜。</p><p>苹果强大的护城河和财务状况应该能帮助公司应对未来的挑战。这一切意味着，现在是以低价买入该股票的绝佳时机——并可能在长期内获利。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果一直是一个强劲的投资，拥有显著的市场地位，过去十年股价上涨了 500%。然而，近期面临的挑战包括由于在中国生产可能导致的进口关税，这导致今年股价下跌了 18%。尽管存在这些担忧，苹果强大的品牌和不断增长的服务收入表明前景乐观。分析师建议在 2025 年买入或持有苹果股票，因为该股票在 29 倍的未来收益预期下显得被低估，公司预计能够成功应对这些挑战</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.54%) has been a winning investment over time as it's become a consumer goods giant, with more than 2.2 billion active devices installed worldwide. The company sells the iconic iPhone, Mac, and other products that consumers flock to -- even if their prices are higher than those of rivals. That's because Apple has built a strong brand, which has become part of its moat or competitive advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.54%) 随着其成为消费品巨头，已经成为一项成功的投资，全球安装的活跃设备超过 22 亿台。该公司销售标志性的 iPhone、Mac 及其他消费者热衷的产品——即使它们的价格高于竞争对手。这是因为苹果建立了强大的品牌，这已成为其护城河或竞争优势的一部分。</p>
</div><p>This has helped the company to grow earnings significantly, into the billions of dollars over time, and the stock price has advanced more than 500% over the past decade. But in recent months, Apple has faced one particular challenge: It produces its products outside of the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这帮助公司显著增长了收益，随着时间的推移，收益达到了数十亿美元，过去十年股价上涨超过 500%。但在最近几个月，苹果面临一个特别的挑战：它在美国以外生产产品。</p>
</div><p>With import tariffs potentially ahead, earnings may suffer. As a result, some investors have fled Apple shares, leading the stock to an 18% decline in the first half of this year -- and a lower valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着可能面临的进口关税，收益可能会受到影响。因此，一些投资者已经抛售苹果股票，导致今年上半年股价下跌 18%——估值也随之降低。</p>
</div><p>Is Apple a buy, sell, or hold in 2025?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，苹果是买入、卖出还是持有？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0MzUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtNDY4Njc5MTc2LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824435%2Fgettyimages-468679176.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's market position</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的市场地位</h2>
</div><p>First, I'll consider the positive, negative, and everything in between. As mentioned, Apple has built a very solid market position, selling products that consumers love. Its flagship iPhone can be seen in the hands of many around the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，我将考虑积极、消极以及介于两者之间的因素。如前所述，苹果建立了非常稳固的市场地位，销售消费者喜爱的产品。其旗舰产品 iPhone 在全球许多人手中都能看到。</p>
</div><p>In the first quarter of 2025, iPhone models took the top four spots in Counterpoint Research's list of the best-selling smartphones globally. In addition, iPhone models also took top spots last year and the previous year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年第一季度，iPhone 型号在 Counterpoint Research 的全球畅销智能手机榜单中占据了前四名。此外，iPhone 型号在去年和前年也占据了榜单的前列。</p>
</div><p>This has helped power Apple's revenue higher and, thanks to the great number of active devices worldwide, the company also has been able to increase its sales of services to users -- such as cloud storage or digital entertainment. In fact, services revenue has soared to records quarter after quarter, showing that services could be the next big revenue driver for this market giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这帮助苹果的收入不断增长，得益于全球大量活跃设备，公司也能够增加对用户的服务销售——例如云存储或数字娱乐。事实上，服务收入已经连续几个季度创下新高，显示服务可能成为这个市场巨头下一个重要的收入驱动因素。</p>
</div><p>However, Apple shares reached a rough patch earlier this year when President Donald Trump originally announced his plan to impose tariffs on imports. This is a major concern for Apple since it produces most of its iPhones in China, a country the U.S. has placed great focus on as it constructed a tariff plan. Apple and its peers haven't yet significantly felt the impact of tariffs since the U.S. exempted electronics from the duties -- but the exemption is temporary, suggesting this challenge could pop up at any point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，苹果股票在今年年初经历了一段艰难时期，当时特朗普总统最初宣布了对进口商品征收关税的计划。这对苹果来说是一个重大担忧，因为它在中国生产大部分 iPhone，而美国在制定关税计划时对中国给予了极大关注。苹果及其同行尚未显著感受到关税的影响，因为美国将电子产品排除在关税之外——但这一豁免是暂时的，暗示这一挑战可能随时出现。</p>
</div><h2>Attention from the president</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>来自总统的关注</h2>
</div><p>To make matters worse, the president has targeted Apple specifically, saying if the company doesn't bring iPhone production to the U.S., it may face a 25% tariff on all iPhone imports. Meanwhile, Apple announced plans to move production of U.S.-destined iPhones to India from China, but the problem with this is goods from India also will face import tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更糟糕的是，总统特别针对苹果表示，如果该公司不将 iPhone 生产转移到美国，可能会面临 25% 的进口关税。与此同时，苹果宣布计划将面向美国市场的 iPhone 生产从中国转移到印度，但问题在于，来自印度的商品也将面临进口关税。</p>
</div><p>All of this has weighed on Apple stock, resulting in the decline this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些因素都对苹果股票造成了压力，导致今年的下跌。</p>
</div><p>It's important to keep in mind that, though Trump has singled out Apple, the company isn't facing this problem alone. Most U.S. tech giants rely heavily on manufacturing abroad and, like Apple, could see costs rise if they bring that production to the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要记住的是，尽管特朗普特别提到苹果，但该公司并不是唯一面临这一问题的公司。大多数美国科技巨头在海外制造产品，像苹果一样，如果将生产转移到美国，成本可能会上升。</p>
</div><p>This isn't an Apple-only headwind, but one that may impact much of the tech industry -- and this point is what could prove to be positive for Apple. It's unlikely the U.S. would apply tariff levels that would be destructive for an entire industry, especially since this industry has played a strong role in powering economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是苹果独有的逆风，而是可能影响大部分科技行业的因素——而这一点可能对苹果来说是积极的。美国不太可能施加会对整个行业造成破坏性影响的关税水平，尤其是因为这个行业在推动经济增长方面发挥了重要作用。</p>
</div><h2>The importance of tech companies</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>科技公司的重要性</h2>
</div><p>Technology stocks are heavily weighted in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, meaning that if they sink, the entire market would suffer. And these companies not only generate high revenue, but also have been spending billions to expand in recent times. All of this is positive for the overall economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技股在 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 中占据了重要权重，这意味着如果它们下跌，整个市场都会受到影响。这些公司不仅创造了高收入，而且近年来也在花费数十亿美元进行扩张。所有这些对整体经济都是积极的。</p>
</div><p>I'm optimistic that the worst-case scenario won't play out and Apple won't face growth-crushing costs. That said, news in the coming weeks and months could continue to weigh on the stock -- unless the company and Trump reach a reasonable agreement on tariffs and production, something that could boost the shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我乐观地认为，最坏的情况不会发生，苹果不会面临压制增长的成本。也就是说，未来几周和几个月的消息可能会继续对股票造成压力——除非公司与特朗普达成合理的关税和生产协议，这可能会推动股价上涨。</p>
</div><p>Considering all of this, what's an investor to do?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一切，投资者该如何行动？</p>
</div><p>It's impossible to say exactly when Apple will rebound, but I'm all for buying or holding Apple shares in 2025. As mentioned, it's unlikely the company will face extreme tariff levels and today, the stock looks cheap at 29x forward earnings estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很难确切说苹果何时会反弹，但我支持在 2025 年买入或持有苹果股票。如前所述，该公司不太可能面临极端的关税水平，而今天，股票在 29 倍的未来收益预期下看起来便宜。</p>
</div><p>Apple's strong moat and financial situation should help the company handle the challenges ahead. All of this means now is a great time to get in on the stock for a low price -- and potentially win over the long haul.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果强大的护城河和财务状况应该能帮助公司应对未来的挑战。这一切意味着，现在是以低价买入该股票的绝佳时机——并可能在长期内获利。</p>
</div>

Is Apple a Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2025?

- 苹果公司在全球拥有超过 22 亿活跃设备，品牌优势显著。  
- 近期面临进口关税挑战，导致股价在今年上半年下跌 18%。  
- 尽管如此，分析认为 2025 年仍可考虑买入或持有苹果股票。

在 2025 年，苹果是应该买入、卖出还是持有？