<p>在过去的 12 个月里，<strong>阿里巴巴</strong>（BABA 2.71%）的股票上涨了近 50%，因为该公司以其稳定的增长和人工智能（AI）努力给投资者留下了深刻印象。但即便在这轮反弹之后，这家中国电子商务和云计算领导者的股价仍然比 2020 年 10 月的历史最高点低 65%。</p>
<p>投资者今天应该购买阿里巴巴的股票，并期待在接下来的 12 个月内继续上涨吗？还是它会在面临更多宏观和竞争压力时放弃其收益？</p>
<h2>阿里巴巴在过去一年发生了什么？</h2>
<p>在 2022 财年（截至 2022 年 3 月），阿里巴巴的收入增长了 19%。但在 2023 财年，其收入仅增长了 2%，在 2024 财年增长了 8%，在 2025 财年增长了 6%。这种放缓是由于三个主要挑战造成的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0MDYvY2hpbmEtYWktY2hpcC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0MDYvY2hpbmEtYWktY2hpcC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>首先，中国的反垄断监管机构在 2021 年对阿里巴巴处以罚款，并禁止其通过独占协议锁定商户，使用激进的亏损促销来获取新客户，以及进行未经批准的投资和收购。监管机构还取消了其金融科技子公司蚂蚁金服的计划 IPO。这些限制削弱了阿里巴巴对 <strong>拼多多</strong>、<strong>京东</strong> 和字节跳动的抖音（海外称为 TikTok）等小型竞争对手的防御能力。</p>
<p>其次，中国经济放缓——部分原因是不可预测的 “清零政策” 封锁和房地产市场疲软——消费者支出减缓。这些宏观压力也导致其云客户缩减支出。</p>
<p>随着阿里巴巴的增长放缓，空头们认为其高增长时代已经结束，业务正在成熟。自 2015 年以来担任首席执行官的张勇在 2023 年也辞职。在张勇离职后，阿里巴巴曾考虑通过新的 IPO 分拆其各个业务部门，但这些计划最终未能实现。</p>
<h2>阿里巴巴是如何稳定其业务的？</h2>
<p>但在所有这些噪音中，阿里巴巴的业务仍在增长。在其零售业务中，海外市场（土耳其的 Trendyol、东南亚的 Lazada、南亚的 Daraz 以及跨境采购的 AliExpress）的强劲增长抵消了其在中国的淘宝和天猫市场的较弱增长。更温和的宏观环境和 AI 市场的扩展也为其云基础设施业务带来了顺风。随着阿里巴巴的两个核心业务再次增长，它削减成本，回购更多股票，并从其高利润的云和 AI 业务中获得更高的收入组合，从而提高了每股收益。</p>
<p>| 指标 | 2024 财年第四季度 | 2025 财年第一季度 | 2025 财年第二季度 | 2025 财年第三季度 | 2025 财年第四季度 |
| 收入增长（同比）| 7% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 7% |
| 营业利润率 | 7% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 12% |
| 调整后每股收益增长 | (5%) | (5%) | (4%) | 13% | 23% |</p>
<p>数据来源：阿里巴巴。以人民币计。同比 = 年比年。</p>
<p>因此，阿里巴巴的收入稳定，营业利润率扩大，调整后的收益在过去两个季度同比增长。这一复苏，加上其针对 Qwen——其新一代大型语言模型（LLMs）用于新生成 AI 应用的持续升级——吸引了许多投资者重新关注阿里巴巴的股票。</p>
<h2>阿里巴巴的股票在一年后会在哪里？</h2>
<p>对于 2026 财年，分析师预计阿里巴巴的收入将增长 7%，调整后的每股收益将增长 8%。对于 2027 财年，他们预计阿里巴巴的收入和调整后的每股收益将分别增长 8% 和 14%。投资者应对这些估计持谨慎态度，但这暗示其海外电子商务市场和云业务将继续扩展。</p>
<p>由于阿里巴巴不再计划将其业务单元分拆为独立公司，它可能会将其云、AI、物流、配送应用和实体店更紧密地整合到其国内和海外电子商务市场中。这种方法可能会扩大其对竞争对手的护城河。</p>
<p>即便在经历了一年的反弹后，阿里巴巴的股票仍以其前瞻性调整后收益的 11 倍交易。其估值可能受到美中之间的关税和贸易战的压制。但如果这种压力减轻，它可能会再次获得更高的估值。假设阿里巴巴能够达到分析师的预期，并在 2027 财年初（2026 年 4 月）以更慷慨的 15 倍前瞻性调整后收益交易，其股价可能上涨 55%，达到约 167 美元。</p>
<p>阿里巴巴仍然可能有光明的未来。然而，投资者只有在相信冷静的头脑将在持续的贸易战中占上风时，才应该购买其股票。如果你预计这些紧张局势会升级，追逐其最新收益可能不是最佳选择。</p>

阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴-W

2 倍做多阿里巴巴 ETF - KraneShares

BABO

2 倍做多 BABA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>阿里巴巴的股票在过去一年上涨了近 50%，但仍比历史最高点低 65%。尽管面临监管罚款和经济放缓等挑战，阿里巴巴的收入已趋于稳定，预计增长将持续。分析师预测 2026 财年的收入将增长 7%，2027 财年将增长 8%。该股票的前瞻性调整市盈率为 11 倍，如果贸易紧张局势缓解，可能会有 55% 的上涨空间。如果投资者相信持续的贸易问题能够得到解决，应该考虑买入</p>

<p>Over the past 12 months, <strong>Alibaba</strong>'s (BABA 2.71%) stock rose nearly 50% as the company impressed investors with its stabilizing growth and artificial intelligence (AI) efforts. But even after that rally, the Chinese e-commerce and cloud leader's stock price remains 65% below its all-time high from October 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的 12 个月里，<strong>阿里巴巴</strong>（BABA 2.71%）的股票上涨了近 50%，因为该公司以其稳定的增长和人工智能（AI）努力给投资者留下了深刻印象。但即便在这轮反弹之后，这家中国电子商务和云计算领导者的股价仍然比 2020 年 10 月的历史最高点低 65%。</p>
</div><p>Should investors buy Alibaba's stock today and expect it to keep climbing over the next 12 months? Or will it give up its gains as it faces more macro and competitive headwinds?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者今天应该购买阿里巴巴的股票，并期待在接下来的 12 个月内继续上涨吗？还是它会在面临更多宏观和竞争压力时放弃其收益？</p>
</div><h2>What happened to Alibaba over the past year?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿里巴巴在过去一年发生了什么？</h2>
</div><p>Back in fiscal 2022 (which ended in March 2022), Alibaba's revenue rose 19%. But its revenue only grew 2% in fiscal 2023, 8% in fiscal 2024, and 6% in fiscal 2025. That slowdown was caused by three major challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 财年（截至 2022 年 3 月），阿里巴巴的收入增长了 19%。但在 2023 财年，其收入仅增长了 2%，在 2024 财年增长了 8%，在 2025 财年增长了 6%。这种放缓是由于三个主要挑战造成的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0MDYvY2hpbmEtYWktY2hpcC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824406%2Fchina-ai-chip.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>First, China's antitrust regulators fined Alibaba in 2021 and barred it from locking in its merchants with exclusive deals, using aggressive loss-leading promotions to gain new customers, and making unapproved investments and acquisitions. The regulators also scuttled a planned IPO for its fintech affiliate Ant Financial. Those restrictions eroded its defenses against its smaller competitors like <strong>PDD</strong>, <strong>JD.com</strong>, and ByteDance's Douyin (known as TikTok overseas).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，中国的反垄断监管机构在 2021 年对阿里巴巴处以罚款，并禁止其通过独占协议锁定商户，使用激进的亏损促销来获取新客户，以及进行未经批准的投资和收购。监管机构还取消了其金融科技子公司蚂蚁金服的计划 IPO。这些限制削弱了阿里巴巴对 <strong>拼多多</strong>、<strong>京东</strong> 和字节跳动的抖音（海外称为 TikTok）等小型竞争对手的防御能力。</p>
</div><p>Second, China's economy cooled off -- partly due to the unpredictable &#34;zero-COVID&#34; lockdowns and a softening real estate market -- and consumer spending slowed down. Those macro headwinds also caused its cloud customers to rein in their spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，中国经济放缓——部分原因是不可预测的 “清零政策” 封锁和房地产市场疲软——消费者支出减缓。这些宏观压力也导致其云客户缩减支出。</p>
</div><p>As Alibaba's growth decelerated, the bears argued that its high-growth days were over and its business was maturing. Daniel Zhang, who had served as its CEO since 2015, also stepped down in 2023. After Zhang's departure, Alibaba flirted with the idea of spinning off its individual business segments with fresh IPOs -- but those plans never panned out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着阿里巴巴的增长放缓，空头们认为其高增长时代已经结束，业务正在成熟。自 2015 年以来担任首席执行官的张勇在 2023 年也辞职。在张勇离职后，阿里巴巴曾考虑通过新的 IPO 分拆其各个业务部门，但这些计划最终未能实现。</p>
</div><h2>How did Alibaba stabilize its business?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿里巴巴是如何稳定其业务的？</h2>
</div><p>But through all of that noise, Alibaba's business kept growing. In its retail business, the robust growth of its overseas marketplaces (Trendyol in Turkey, Lazada in Southeast Asia, Daraz in South Asia, and AliExpress for cross-border purchases) offset the weaker growth of its Taobao and Tmall marketplaces in China. The warmer macro environment and the expansion of the AI market also generated tailwinds for its cloud infrastructure business. As Alibaba's two core businesses grew again, it cut costs, bought back more shares, and generated a higher mix of revenues from its higher-margin cloud and AI businesses to grow its earnings per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在所有这些噪音中，阿里巴巴的业务仍在增长。在其零售业务中，海外市场（土耳其的 Trendyol、东南亚的 Lazada、南亚的 Daraz 以及跨境采购的 AliExpress）的强劲增长抵消了其在中国的淘宝和天猫市场的较弱增长。更温和的宏观环境和 AI 市场的扩展也为其云基础设施业务带来了顺风。随着阿里巴巴的两个核心业务再次增长，它削减成本，回购更多股票，并从其高利润的云和 AI 业务中获得更高的收入组合，从而提高了每股收益。</p>
</div><p>| Metric | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
| Revenue growth (YOY) | 7% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 7% |
| Operating margin | 7% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 12% |
| Adjusted EPS growth | (5%) | (5%) | (4%) | 13% | 23% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指标 | 2024 财年第四季度 | 2025 财年第一季度 | 2025 财年第二季度 | 2025 财年第三季度 | 2025 财年第四季度 |
| 收入增长（同比）| 7% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 7% |
| 营业利润率 | 7% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 12% |
| 调整后每股收益增长 | (5%) | (5%) | (4%) | 13% | 23% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: Alibaba. In CNY terms. YOY = Year-over-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：阿里巴巴。以人民币计。同比 = 年比年。</p>
</div><p>As a result, Alibaba's top line stabilized, its operating margins expanded, and its adjusted earnings grew year over year over the past two quarters. That recovery, along with its ongoing upgrades for Qwen -- its new family of large language models (LLMs) for new generative AI applications -- drew many investors back to Alibaba's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，阿里巴巴的收入稳定，营业利润率扩大，调整后的收益在过去两个季度同比增长。这一复苏，加上其针对 Qwen——其新一代大型语言模型（LLMs）用于新生成 AI 应用的持续升级——吸引了许多投资者重新关注阿里巴巴的股票。</p>
</div><h2>Where will Alibaba's stock be in a year?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿里巴巴的股票在一年后会在哪里？</h2>
</div><p>For fiscal 2026, analysts expect Alibaba's revenue to rise 7% as its adjusted EPS grows 8%. For fiscal 2027, they expect Alibaba's revenue and adjusted EPS to increase 8% and 14%, respectively. Investors should take those estimates with a grain of salt, but they imply that its overseas e-commerce marketplaces and cloud business will continue to expand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 2026 财年，分析师预计阿里巴巴的收入将增长 7%，调整后的每股收益将增长 8%。对于 2027 财年，他们预计阿里巴巴的收入和调整后的每股收益将分别增长 8% 和 14%。投资者应对这些估计持谨慎态度，但这暗示其海外电子商务市场和云业务将继续扩展。</p>
</div><p>Since Alibaba no longer plans to spin off its business units as stand-alone companies, it might integrate its cloud, AI, logistics, delivery apps, and brick-and-mortar stores more tightly into its domestic and overseas e-commerce marketplaces. That approach could widen its moat against its less diversified competitors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于阿里巴巴不再计划将其业务单元分拆为独立公司，它可能会将其云、AI、物流、配送应用和实体店更紧密地整合到其国内和海外电子商务市场中。这种方法可能会扩大其对竞争对手的护城河。</p>
</div><p>Even after its year-long rally, Alibaba's stock trades at just 11 times its forward adjusted earnings. Its valuations are likely being compressed by the tariffs and the trade war between the U.S. and China. But if that pressure eases, it could command a higher valuation again. Assuming Alibaba matches analysts' estimates and it trades at a more generous 15 times its forward adjusted earnings by the beginning of fiscal 2027 (April 2026), its stock could rise 55% to about $167.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即便在经历了一年的反弹后，阿里巴巴的股票仍以其前瞻性调整后收益的 11 倍交易。其估值可能受到美中之间的关税和贸易战的压制。但如果这种压力减轻，它可能会再次获得更高的估值。假设阿里巴巴能够达到分析师的预期，并在 2027 财年初（2026 年 4 月）以更慷慨的 15 倍前瞻性调整后收益交易，其股价可能上涨 55%，达到约 167 美元。</p>
</div><p>Alibaba could still have a bright future. However, investors should only buy its stock if they believe cooler heads will prevail in the ongoing trade war. If you expect those tensions to escalate, it might not be the best idea to chase its latest gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴仍然可能有光明的未来。然而，投资者只有在相信冷静的头脑将在持续的贸易战中占上风时，才应该购买其股票。如果你预计这些紧张局势会升级，追逐其最新收益可能不是最佳选择。</p>
</div>

Where Will Alibaba Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 阿里巴巴股票在过去一年上涨近 50%，但仍低于历史高点 65%。
- 受反垄断罚款和经济放缓影响，阿里巴巴收入增长放缓。
- 分析师预计未来两年收入和调整后每股收益将继续增长。

一年后阿里巴巴的股票价格会达到什么水平？