<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.54%) 曾在数年内保持全球最大公司的称号，但现在已将这一称号让给了 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) 和 <strong>微软</strong>(NASDAQ: MSFT)，可能是永久性的。然而，我认为这并不是苹果的终点。根据该公司缺乏新创新产品以及几乎不存在的人工智能战略，我不会感到惊讶，如果在未来几年内其他公司在市值上超过苹果。</p>
<p>我认为到 2030 年可以超过苹果的三家公司是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.13%)、<strong>谷歌</strong>(GOOG 0.49%)(GOOGL 0.49%) 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.69%)。每只股票需要走的路径不同，但我认为在未来五年内是可行的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM2MDkvY2VsZWJyYXRpbmctc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM2MDkvY2VsZWJyYXRpbmctc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>苹果的增长在过去几年中表现不佳</h2>
<p>首先，让我们来看看为什么苹果会陷入困境。在 COVID 销售热潮消退后，苹果未能显著增长其收入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/227bb8fd304c1eacdfe589c39f365d72.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/227bb8fd304c1eacdfe589c39f365d72.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts。同比 = 年比年。</p>
<p>虽然苹果可以提高利润率和回购股票，但如果不以有意义的速度增加销售，这些活动的影响是有限的。</p>
<p>目前似乎也没有任何创新技术在管道中可以推动苹果的股票上涨。其人工智能推出失败，新款 iPhone 多年来没有出现颠覆性功能。除非发生重大变化，否则苹果的中个位数收入增长是可以预期的。这与其比较的三家公司大相径庭。</p>
<p>这三家公司最近的收入增长远远超过苹果。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61a68048644bb2a663474857ccc3a531.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61a68048644bb2a663474857ccc3a531.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>Meta Platforms 和谷歌的增长速度是苹果的两到三倍，如果它们能够保持这种速度，将能够赶上苹果。随着每家公司在人工智能方面的投资和成功，我不会感到惊讶，如果这两家公司能够在可预见的未来保持其增长率。</p>
<p>亚马逊在收入方面的增长速度并没有显著快于苹果。然而，由于高利润业务如亚马逊网络服务（AWS）和广告的崛起，其利润正在快速增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/232f70bb4938dde3eafc5b908f5bd090.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/232f70bb4938dde3eafc5b908f5bd090.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 基本每股收益（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts。每股收益 = 每股收益。</p>
<p>这三家公司在盈利增长方面的速度远快于苹果，而这正是市场对成熟企业所关注的。这将使这三家公司在 2030 年前超过苹果，但每家公司实现这一目标的难易程度如何呢？</p>
<h2>估值是另一个关键考虑因素</h2>
<p>尽管苹果的增长速度低于市场，但其交易价格远高于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)，后者的前瞻性市盈率为 23.2 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/096ef740a6f716b1c212d6265f21d139.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/096ef740a6f716b1c212d6265f21d139.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts。市盈率 = 价格与收益之比。</p>
<p>此外，苹果的估值也远高于谷歌，后者最近的业绩明显优于苹果。如果苹果和谷歌以相同的估值交易，谷歌的市值将超过今天的苹果。因此，谷歌超越苹果的路径相对明确。</p>
<p>Meta Platforms 的估值大致相同，因此其增长需要来自盈利。尽管 Meta 在上个季度的每股收益增长了 36%，但假设这一增长放缓至 20%，而苹果的每股收益增长加速至 10%。如果发生这种情况，五年后，苹果的净收入将达到 1570 亿美元，而 Meta 将达到 1660 亿美元。如果这两者的估值相同，那么 Meta 将成为更大的公司。</p>
<p>亚马逊的估值远高于苹果。这是由于其快速的盈利增长，但这种情况不太可能永远持续。亚马逊和 Meta 的净收入相似，即使亚马逊的盈利增长放缓至 20% 的速度，其估值下降，仍将与 Meta Platforms 的估值相当，从而使其超过苹果。</p>
<p>这三家公司都具有出色的增长前景，似乎是值得考虑现在购买的优秀投资。苹果是一只增长缓慢且昂贵的股票，如果我拥有苹果的股票，我会卖掉我的股份，投资这三家公司。</p>

谷歌-C

谷歌-A

<p>一项预测表明，到 2030 年，亚马逊、Alphabet 和 Meta Platforms 的市值可能会超过苹果。自 COVID 以来，苹果的增长停滞，缺乏创新产品或显著的人工智能战略，导致其收入增长仅为中个位数。相比之下，这三家竞争对手的收入和盈利增长速度更快，尤其是在人工智能投资方面。估值也起着重要作用，因为苹果的交易价格高于其竞争对手。分析表明，投资这三家公司可能比持有苹果股票更具优势</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.54%) held the title of world's largest company for several years, but it has since relinquished that title to <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) and <strong>Microsoft</strong>(NASDAQ: MSFT), likely for good. However, I don't think that's the last stop for Apple. Judging by the company's lack of new innovative products, coupled with a practically non-existent AI strategy, I wouldn't be surprised if other companies pass Apple in terms of market cap over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.54%) 曾在数年内保持全球最大公司的称号，但现在已将这一称号让给了 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) 和 <strong>微软</strong>(NASDAQ: MSFT)，可能是永久性的。然而，我认为这并不是苹果的终点。根据该公司缺乏新创新产品以及几乎不存在的人工智能战略，我不会感到惊讶，如果在未来几年内其他公司在市值上超过苹果。</p>
</div><p>Three companies that I think can surpass Apple by 2030 are <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.13%), <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.49%)(GOOGL 0.49%), and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.69%). The paths that each stock needs to take to get there are different, but I think that it's doable within the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为到 2030 年可以超过苹果的三家公司是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -0.13%)、<strong>谷歌</strong>(GOOG 0.49%)(GOOGL 0.49%) 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.69%)。每只股票需要走的路径不同，但我认为在未来五年内是可行的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjM2MDkvY2VsZWJyYXRpbmctc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LXN1Y2Nlc3MuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F823609%2Fcelebrating-stock-market-success.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's growth has been poor over the past few years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的增长在过去几年中表现不佳</h2>
</div><p>First, let's tackle why Apple is struggling. After the COVID sales boom subsided for Apple, it failed to grow its revenue meaningfully.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，让我们来看看为什么苹果会陷入困境。在 COVID 销售热潮消退后，苹果未能显著增长其收入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/227bb8fd304c1eacdfe589c39f365d72.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/227bb8fd304c1eacdfe589c39f365d72.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts. YoY = year-over-year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts。同比 = 年比年。</p>
</div><p>While Apple can improve margins and repurchase shares, there is only so much effect those activities can have without increasing sales at a meaningful pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然苹果可以提高利润率和回购股票，但如果不以有意义的速度增加销售，这些活动的影响是有限的。</p>
</div><p>There also don't appear to be any innovative technologies in the pipeline that can drive Apple's stock higher. Its AI launch flopped, and new iPhones haven't seen a game-changing feature in years. Unless something drastic changes, the mid-single-digit revenue growth for Apple is what's to be expected. That's far different from the trio it's being compared against.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前似乎也没有任何创新技术在管道中可以推动苹果的股票上涨。其人工智能推出失败，新款 iPhone 多年来没有出现颠覆性功能。除非发生重大变化，否则苹果的中个位数收入增长是可以预期的。这与其比较的三家公司大相径庭。</p>
</div><p>All three of these companies have produced far greater revenue growth than Apple recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这三家公司最近的收入增长远远超过苹果。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61a68048644bb2a663474857ccc3a531.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/61a68048644bb2a663474857ccc3a531.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Meta Platforms and Alphabet are growing two to three times faster than Apple, which will allow them to catch up to Apple if they can maintain their pace. With each company investing in AI and seeing success, I wouldn't be surprised if both these companies can keep up their growth rates for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta Platforms 和谷歌的增长速度是苹果的两到三倍，如果它们能够保持这种速度，将能够赶上苹果。随着每家公司在人工智能方面的投资和成功，我不会感到惊讶，如果这两家公司能够在可预见的未来保持其增长率。</p>
</div><p>Amazon isn't growing significantly faster than Apple in terms of revenue. Still, due to the rise of high-margin businesses like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and advertising, its profits are increasing at a rapid pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在收入方面的增长速度并没有显著快于苹果。然而，由于高利润业务如亚马逊网络服务（AWS）和广告的崛起，其利润正在快速增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/232f70bb4938dde3eafc5b908f5bd090.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/232f70bb4938dde3eafc5b908f5bd090.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL EPS Basic (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts. EPS = earnings per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 基本每股收益（季度同比增长）数据来自 YCharts。每股收益 = 每股收益。</p>
</div><p>All three of these companies are growing earnings at a much faster pace than Apple, which is what the market cares about for mature businesses. This will allow all three to surpass Apple by 2030, but just how easily will each company achieve this goal?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这三家公司在盈利增长方面的速度远快于苹果，而这正是市场对成熟企业所关注的。这将使这三家公司在 2030 年前超过苹果，但每家公司实现这一目标的难易程度如何呢？</p>
</div><h2>Valuation is another key consideration</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值是另一个关键考虑因素</h2>
</div><p>Despite Apple's slower-than-market growth rate, it trades at a massive premium to the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), which trades for 23.2 times forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果的增长速度低于市场，但其交易价格远高于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)，后者的前瞻性市盈率为 23.2 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/096ef740a6f716b1c212d6265f21d139.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/096ef740a6f716b1c212d6265f21d139.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts. PE = price-to-earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts。市盈率 = 价格与收益之比。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, it has a massive premium over Alphabet, which has posted substantially better results than Apple recently. If Apple and Alphabet were to trade at the same valuation, Alphabet would be worth more than Apple is today. So, the path for Alphabet to be worth more than Apple is fairly clear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，苹果的估值也远高于谷歌，后者最近的业绩明显优于苹果。如果苹果和谷歌以相同的估值交易，谷歌的市值将超过今天的苹果。因此，谷歌超越苹果的路径相对明确。</p>
</div><p>Meta Platforms is valued at approximately the same level, so its growth needs to come from earnings. Even though Meta grew earnings per share at a 36% pace during the last quarter, let's say that slows to 20% growth while Apple accelerates to a 10% EPS growth rate. If that occurs, five years from now, Apple will have $157 billion in net income, while Meta will have $166 billion. If these two are valued at the same price, then Meta would be the larger company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Meta Platforms 的估值大致相同，因此其增长需要来自盈利。尽管 Meta 在上个季度的每股收益增长了 36%，但假设这一增长放缓至 20%，而苹果的每股收益增长加速至 10%。如果发生这种情况，五年后，苹果的净收入将达到 1570 亿美元，而 Meta 将达到 1660 亿美元。如果这两者的估值相同，那么 Meta 将成为更大的公司。</p>
</div><p>Amazon trades at a much higher premium than Apple. It has earned this due to its rapid earnings growth, but it's unlikely to last forever. Amazon and Meta have similar net incomes, and even if Amazon's earnings growth decelerates to a 20% pace and its valuation drops, it would still be valued at a comparable level to Meta Platforms, allowing it to surpass Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的估值远高于苹果。这是由于其快速的盈利增长，但这种情况不太可能永远持续。亚马逊和 Meta 的净收入相似，即使亚马逊的盈利增长放缓至 20% 的速度，其估值下降，仍将与 Meta Platforms 的估值相当，从而使其超过苹果。</p>
</div><p>All three of these companies have excellent growth prospects and appear to be great investments to consider purchasing now. Apple is a slow-growing and expensive stock, and I'd sell my shares if I owned any and invest in these three.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这三家公司都具有出色的增长前景，似乎是值得考虑现在购买的优秀投资。苹果是一只增长缓慢且昂贵的股票，如果我拥有苹果的股票，我会卖掉我的股份，投资这三家公司。</p>
</div>

Prediction: These 3 Stocks Will Be Worth More Than Apple by 2030

- 苹果公司在过去几年中未能实现显著增长，面临市场竞争压力。  
- 亚马逊、谷歌和 Meta 预计将在 2030 年前超越苹果，因其收入和盈利增长更快。  
- 苹果的高估值与其低增长形成对比，可能导致投资者转向其他公司。  

预测：到 2030 年，这三只股票的价值将超过苹果