<p>在 2025 年上半年，股市受到特朗普政府新关税政策的重大影响。现在，进入下半年一周，特朗普总统仍在不断推出立法，进一步影响资本市场的方向。</p>
<p>7 月 4 日，特朗普签署了 “宏伟美丽法案”。与许多立法一样，该法案涵盖了多种主题。但在本文中，我将特别指出法案中一个我认为可能对 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.15%）有利的部分。</p>
<p>让我们探讨一下这项宏伟法案如何在电动车（EV）市场引发变革，以及为什么特斯拉现在可能会成为赢家。</p>
<h2>该法案如何影响特斯拉？</h2>
<p>在过去几年中，许多企业有意识地努力投资于可持续性和绿色能源解决方案。这被更正式地称为环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）。企业近年来探索 ESG 的一个原因是，这些倡议中的一些有资格获得税收抵免。</p>
<p>不过，ESG 并不仅仅惠及企业。消费者也有机会从绿色能源税收补贴中受益。例如，乔·拜登总统的《通货膨胀削减法案》（IRA）包含了税收激励，以刺激对电动车而非传统内燃机车辆的需求。</p>
<p>然而，特朗普的 “宏伟美丽法案” 旨在撤销其中一些激励措施。更具体地说，电动车税收抵免预计将在 9 月之前逐步取消。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/989efe7deb63765c97d8f2e859ece2a4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/989efe7deb63765c97d8f2e859ece2a4.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 数据来源：YCharts</p>
<p>如上图所示，特斯拉股票对法案通过的反应并不好。由于国会山关于法案通过可能性的传闻，股票在 6 月底首次大幅下跌。在 7 月初法案签署成为法律后，特斯拉的股票进一步下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQyNzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTgyMTcxNTYwLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQyNzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTgyMTcxNTYwLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>电动车补贴的取消可能是特斯拉的隐性催化剂（暂时）</h2>
<p>电动车补贴的消失可能看起来是特斯拉业务的一种不利阻力。但作为一个逆向思维者，我认为事情并非如此。事实上，我认为特斯拉可能会从这些电动车税收抵免的取消中受益。</p>
<p>下表列出了特斯拉在电动车方面的生产和交付统计数据，以及过去六个季度电动车业务的收入增长数据。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>类别</th>
<th>2024 年第一季度</th>
<th>2024 年第二季度</th>
<th>2024 年第三季度</th>
<th>2024 年第四季度</th>
<th>2025 年第一季度</th>
<th>2025 年第二季度</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>生产</td>
<td>433,371</td>
<td>410,831</td>
<td>469,796</td>
<td>459,445</td>
<td>362,615</td>
<td>410,244</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>交付</td>
<td>386,810</td>
<td>443,956</td>
<td>462,890</td>
<td>495,570</td>
<td>336,681</td>
<td>384,122</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>汽车收入（同比增长）</td>
<td>(13%)</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>(8%)</td>
<td>(20%)</td>
<td>尚未报告</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：特斯拉。同比 = 年比年。</p>
<p>在过去一年多的时间里，特斯拉的生产和交付增长一直在放缓。正如电动车收入增长趋势所表明的，特斯拉最大的销售来源已经遭到重创，影响了公司的整体利润率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c6dbe39aba787aa74cf88fdd388ff443.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c6dbe39aba787aa74cf88fdd388ff443.png"/></p>
<p>美国通货膨胀率数据来源：YCharts</p>
<p>在我看来，这些不尽如人意的数字可能表明，消费者在购买电动车方面已经犹豫了相当长一段时间。即使有税收补贴，电动车仍然相当昂贵。而且，消费者可能担心通货膨胀，转向电动车在大多数消费者看来更多的是一种奢侈，而非必需品。</p>
<p>然而，随着通货膨胀的改善以及一些 ESG 税收抵免的逐步取消，我认为某些消费者群体可能会选择在未来几个月内最终购买电动车。</p>
<p>对于特斯拉来说，电动车税收抵免的逐步取消实际上可能为一些急需的需求提供助力，因为那些对购买电动车犹豫不决的消费者没有太多时间来利用这些补贴。</p>
<h2>现在是购买特斯拉股票的好时机吗？</h2>
<p>考虑到特斯拉股票已经大幅下跌，以及法案取消电动车税收抵免可能对公司有利，现在似乎是一个不错的买入时机。然而，聪明的投资者知道事情并非如此简单。</p>
<p>目前，特斯拉股票受到多种因素的重大影响——“宏伟美丽法案” 只是其中之一。除了特朗普的新政策外，特斯拉股票还受到上个月公司机器人出租车发布的叙事以及与首席执行官埃隆·马斯克新政党成立相关的新闻的影响。</p>
<p>归根结底，特斯拉可能会在下半年给投资者带来超出预期的结果。然而，我认为电动车税收抵免的取消可能会导致对特斯拉车辆的需求，这是一个短期催化剂。至于长期前景，特斯拉的电动车增长仍然不明朗。</p>
<p>基于这些原因，我现在会选择观望，并继续监测特斯拉的增长，以便更好地了解公司的长期发展轨迹。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

XI二南特斯-U

南方两倍做多特斯拉

南方两倍做空特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>特朗普总统于 2025 年 7 月 4 日签署的 “宏伟、美丽的法案” 可能会对特斯拉股票产生积极影响，尽管电动车税收抵免被取消。虽然该法案最初导致特斯拉股价下跌，但补贴的逐步取消可能会刺激需求，因为消费者急于在激励措施消失之前购买电动车。特斯拉的生产和交付增长一直在放缓，但改善的通货膨胀可能会鼓励犹豫不决的买家。投资者可能会将此视为一个买入机会，因为包括新政策和特斯拉即将推出的机器人出租车在内的各种因素都会影响股票表现</p>

<p>During the first half of 2025, the stock market was heavily influenced by new tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration. Now, a week into the second half of the year, President Donald Trump hasn't stopped introducing legislation that will further sway the direction of the capital markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年上半年，股市受到特朗普政府新关税政策的重大影响。现在，进入下半年一周，特朗普总统仍在不断推出立法，进一步影响资本市场的方向。</p>
</div><p>On July 4, Trump signed the &#34;big, beautiful bill&#34; into law. Like many pieces of legislation, the bill covers a variety of topics. But for this article specifically, I'm going to point out one particular section of the bill that I think could benefit <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 1.15%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7 月 4 日，特朗普签署了 “宏伟美丽法案”。与许多立法一样，该法案涵盖了多种主题。但在本文中，我将特别指出法案中一个我认为可能对 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.15%）有利的部分。</p>
</div><p>Let's explore how the megabill could shake things up in the electric vehicle (EV) market and why Tesla could be a winner right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们探讨一下这项宏伟法案如何在电动车（EV）市场引发变革，以及为什么特斯拉现在可能会成为赢家。</p>
</div><h2>How does the bill impact Tesla?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>该法案如何影响特斯拉？</h2>
</div><p>Over the last several years, many businesses have made a cognizant effort to invest in sustainability and green energy solutions. This is more formally known as environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG). One reason corporations have explored ESG in recent years is because some of these initiatives are eligible for tax credits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，许多企业有意识地努力投资于可持续性和绿色能源解决方案。这被更正式地称为环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）。企业近年来探索 ESG 的一个原因是，这些倡议中的一些有资格获得税收抵免。</p>
</div><p>ESG does not solely benefit corporations, though. Consumers also have the opportunity to benefit from green energy tax subsidies. For example, President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) included tax incentives in order to spur demand for EVs over traditional combustion engine vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，ESG 并不仅仅惠及企业。消费者也有机会从绿色能源税收补贴中受益。例如，乔·拜登总统的《通货膨胀削减法案》（IRA）包含了税收激励，以刺激对电动车而非传统内燃机车辆的需求。</p>
</div><p>However, Trump's &#34;big, beautiful bill&#34; seeks to roll back some of these incentives. More specifically, EV tax credits are expected to be phased out by September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，特朗普的 “宏伟美丽法案” 旨在撤销其中一些激励措施。更具体地说，电动车税收抵免预计将在 9 月之前逐步取消。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/989efe7deb63765c97d8f2e859ece2a4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/989efe7deb63765c97d8f2e859ece2a4.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 数据来源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>As the graph above illustrates, Tesla stock has not reacted well to the bill being passed. Shares took an initial nosedive in late June, as rumors swirled on Capitol Hill regarding the likelihood of the bill being passed. Following the bill being signed into law in early July, shares of Tesla sold off even further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上图所示，特斯拉股票对法案通过的反应并不好。由于国会山关于法案通过可能性的传闻，股票在 6 月底首次大幅下跌。在 7 月初法案签署成为法律后，特斯拉的股票进一步下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQyNzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTgyMTcxNTYwLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824278%2Fgettyimages-182171560.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The removal of EV subsidies could be a hidden catalyst for Tesla (for now)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>电动车补贴的取消可能是特斯拉的隐性催化剂（暂时）</h2>
</div><p>The perception of EV subsidies going away might seem like an unwanted headwind for Tesla's business. But as a contrarian, I think there is more to the picture. In fact, I see Tesla benefiting from the removal of these EV tax credits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动车补贴的消失可能看起来是特斯拉业务的一种不利阻力。但作为一个逆向思维者，我认为事情并非如此。事实上，我认为特斯拉可能会从这些电动车税收抵免的取消中受益。</p>
</div><p>The table below breaks down Tesla's production and delivery stats around its EVs, as well as revenue growth figures for the EV business over the last six quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下表列出了特斯拉在电动车方面的生产和交付统计数据，以及过去六个季度电动车业务的收入增长数据。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Category</th>
<th>Q1 2024</th>
<th>Q2 2024</th>
<th>Q3 2024</th>
<th>Q4 2024</th>
<th>Q1 2025</th>
<th>Q2 2025</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Production</td>
<td>433,371</td>
<td>410,831</td>
<td>469,796</td>
<td>459,445</td>
<td>362,615</td>
<td>410,244</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Deliveries</td>
<td>386,810</td>
<td>443,956</td>
<td>462,890</td>
<td>495,570</td>
<td>336,681</td>
<td>384,122</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Automotive revenue (YOY growth)</td>
<td>(13%)</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>(8%)</td>
<td>(20%)</td>
<td>Not Yet Reported</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>类别</th>
<th>2024 年第一季度</th>
<th>2024 年第二季度</th>
<th>2024 年第三季度</th>
<th>2024 年第四季度</th>
<th>2025 年第一季度</th>
<th>2025 年第二季度</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>生产</td>
<td>433,371</td>
<td>410,831</td>
<td>469,796</td>
<td>459,445</td>
<td>362,615</td>
<td>410,244</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>交付</td>
<td>386,810</td>
<td>443,956</td>
<td>462,890</td>
<td>495,570</td>
<td>336,681</td>
<td>384,122</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>汽车收入（同比增长）</td>
<td>(13%)</td>
<td>(7%)</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>(8%)</td>
<td>(20%)</td>
<td>尚未报告</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Tesla. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：特斯拉。同比 = 年比年。</p>
</div><p>For more than a year now, Tesla's production and delivery growth has been decelerating. As the EV revenue growth trends make clear, Tesla's largest source of sales has been decimated -- taking a toll on the company's overall profit margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一年多的时间里，特斯拉的生产和交付增长一直在放缓。正如电动车收入增长趋势所表明的，特斯拉最大的销售来源已经遭到重创，影响了公司的整体利润率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c6dbe39aba787aa74cf88fdd388ff443.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c6dbe39aba787aa74cf88fdd388ff443.png"/></p>
<p>US Inflation Rate data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国通货膨胀率数据来源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>In my view, these uninspiring figures could suggest that consumers have been hesitant to purchase an EV for quite some time now. Even with the tax subsidies, EVs are still quite expensive. And with consumers potentially worried about inflation, transitioning to an EV has largely been seen as more of a luxury than a necessity for most consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，这些不尽如人意的数字可能表明，消费者在购买电动车方面已经犹豫了相当长一段时间。即使有税收补贴，电动车仍然相当昂贵。而且，消费者可能担心通货膨胀，转向电动车在大多数消费者看来更多的是一种奢侈，而非必需品。</p>
</div><p>However, with inflation improving and the phaseout of some ESG tax credits right around the corner, I think some consumer demographics may choose to finally purchase an EV in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，随着通货膨胀的改善以及一些 ESG 税收抵免的逐步取消，我认为某些消费者群体可能会选择在未来几个月内最终购买电动车。</p>
</div><p>For Tesla, the phaseout of EV tax credits could actually provide some much-needed demand tailwinds as consumers who were on the fence about buying an EV don't have much time left to take advantage of the subsidies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于特斯拉来说，电动车税收抵免的逐步取消实际上可能为一些急需的需求提供助力，因为那些对购买电动车犹豫不决的消费者没有太多时间来利用这些补贴。</p>
</div><h2>Is Tesla stock a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是购买特斯拉股票的好时机吗？</h2>
</div><p>Given how much Tesla stock has sold off and the potential for the bill's removal of EV tax credits actually working in favor for the company, it might seem like now is a good time to buy the dip. Smart investors know there is more to the picture, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到特斯拉股票已经大幅下跌，以及法案取消电动车税收抵免可能对公司有利，现在似乎是一个不错的买入时机。然而，聪明的投资者知道事情并非如此简单。</p>
</div><p>Right now, Tesla stock is heavily influenced by several factors -- the &#34;big, beautiful bill&#34; being just one of them. In addition to Trump's new policies, Tesla stock is also moving based on narratives around the company's robotaxi launch last month, as well as news related to CEO Elon Musk's new political party formation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，特斯拉股票受到多种因素的重大影响——“宏伟美丽法案” 只是其中之一。除了特朗普的新政策外，特斯拉股票还受到上个月公司机器人出租车发布的叙事以及与首席执行官埃隆·马斯克新政党成立相关的新闻的影响。</p>
</div><p>At the end of the day, Tesla may surprise investors with better-than-expected results during the second half of the year. However, my idea suggesting that the removal of EV tax credits could lead to demand for Tesla vehicles is a near-term catalyst. As far as the long-term picture is concerned, Tesla's EV growth remains cloudy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>归根结底，特斯拉可能会在下半年给投资者带来超出预期的结果。然而，我认为电动车税收抵免的取消可能会导致对特斯拉车辆的需求，这是一个短期催化剂。至于长期前景，特斯拉的电动车增长仍然不明朗。</p>
</div><p>For these reasons, I would sit on the sidelines right now and continue monitoring Tesla's growth in order to get a better picture of the company's long-run trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于这些原因，我现在会选择观望，并继续监测特斯拉的增长，以便更好地了解公司的长期发展轨迹。</p>
</div>

Contrarian Opinion: President Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" Could Give a Big Boost to Tesla Stock... for Now

- 特朗普政府的新法案可能影响特斯拉的电动车市场。  
- 法案预计在九月前逐步取消电动车税收补贴。  
- 尽管短期内面临挑战，特斯拉可能从补贴取消中受益。

逆向观点：特朗普总统的 “大而美丽的法案” 可能会暂时大幅提升特斯拉的股票