<p>在过去的一个世纪里，股市一直是耐心且具有长期投资思维的投资者可靠的赚钱工具。尽管其他资产类别在较长时间内也有所增值，包括房地产、国债以及黄金、白银和石油等商品，但没有任何资产能够接近股票的年化回报率。</p>
<p>但仅仅因为股市有着悠久的历史使长期投资者变得更富有，并不意味着华尔街就没有波动性。自 2025 年开幕以来，基准的 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.33%) 和以增长为导向的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC -0.22%) 都达到了新高。此外，标志性的 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>(^DJI -0.63%) 和标准普尔 500 指数也进入了修正区间，而纳斯达克综合指数经历了短暂的熊市。</p>
<p>波动性往往是由投资者的不确定性和情绪驱动的。尽管目前对通货膨胀的现行水平以及价格上涨可能对未来股票产生不利影响存在明显的不确定性，但可以提出一个强有力的论点，即华尔街面临的威胁远比通货膨胀更大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1NDAvcHJlc2lkZW50LWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC1idy13aC1waG90by1kaXNjdXNzLXRhcmlmZnMtb3ZhbC1vZmZpY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1NDAvcHJlc2lkZW50LWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC1idy13aC1waG90by1kaXNjdXNzLXRhcmlmZnMtb3ZhbC1vZmZpY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>唐纳德·特朗普总统讨论汽车关税。图片来源：白宫官方照片。</p>
<h2>华尔街的通货膨胀恐惧正在加剧</h2>
<p>让我在讨论之前指出，适度的通货膨胀是正常、健康且可以预期的。当美国经济全面运转并扩张时，企业预计会拥有一定的定价权，使其能够对商品和服务收取更高的价格。从历史上看，美联储的目标是 2% 的通货膨胀率。</p>
<p>专业投资者和普通投资者所担心的是，两个变量可能会显著提高国内通货膨胀率，这可能对美国企业、美国经济和股市产生不利影响。</p>
<p>其中第一个问题是唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税和贸易政策。在 4 月 2 日交易结束后，特朗普公布了他的宏伟计划，其中包括 10% 的全球性关税，以及对与美国历史上存在不利贸易失衡的数十个国家提高的 “相互关税”。值得一提的是，特朗普已暂停对大多数国家的相互关税，直到 8 月 1 日。</p>
<p>全球关税的实施带来了许多潜在问题，从与盟友的贸易关系恶化到外国国家和/或消费者可能不购买美国制造的商品。</p>
<p>但可以说，关税带来的最大担忧是其通货膨胀影响。输出关税是对进口到美国的成品征收的，而输入关税是对用于完成美国产品制造的商品征收的税。输入关税有可能使美国商品变得更加昂贵，而特朗普的关税和贸易政策在区分输出和输入关税方面做得并不好。</p>
<p>预计唐纳德·特朗普的关税和贸易政策将导致通货膨胀率上升，甚至导致社会保障 2026 年生活成本调整（COLA）预测出现某种 “特朗普效应”。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/838c91ff7a318feb9db7ae77e868a718.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/838c91ff7a318feb9db7ae77e868a718.png"/></p>
<p>M2 货币供应量以三年来最快的速度扩张。美国 M2 货币供应数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>导致通货膨胀率加速并保持在美联储 2% 目标之上的第二个变量是美国货币供应量的扩张。</p>
<p>与现行的通货膨胀率类似，货币供应量是我们希望以适度速度增长的东西。扩张的经济需要额外的资本来促进交易。货币供应量的稳定增长是健康经济的关键指标之一。</p>
<p>值得特别注意的是美国货币供应量的扩张，我们正在目睹 M2 的增长。这个货币供应量的衡量标准包括流通中的现金和硬币、支票账户中的活期存款、货币市场账户、储蓄账户以及低于 100,000 美元的存款证（CDs）。这是可以花费的资金，但需要一些努力才能获得。</p>
<p>在截至 2025 年 5 月的过去一年中，M2 货币供应量精确增加了 4%。这是自 2022 年以来 M2 年同比扩张的最快速度——这可能是由于美联储启动了降息周期，使借贷利率更具吸引力——这表明美国通货膨胀率可能会顽固地保持在 2% 以上。</p>
<p>但对股市来说，存在一个_更_大的下行威胁，那就是通货膨胀。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1NDAvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1NDAvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>华尔街最具影响力企业的盈利并没有想象中那么美好</h2>
<p>华尔街的一个表面警示信号是其估值。当 2025 年开始时，标准普尔 500 指数的希勒市盈率（P/E Ratio），也称为周期调整市盈率（CAPE Ratio），在 154 年的回测中处于第三高的倍数。</p>
<p>根据历史数据，标准普尔 500 指数的希勒市盈率超过 30 并维持这一倍数至少两个月的前五次，最终都伴随着道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔 500 指数和/或纳斯达克综合指数的下跌，幅度从 20% 到 89% 不等。简而言之，当估值溢价向上延伸时，股市往往会面临困境。</p>
<p>当股票整体以激进的估值溢价交易时，通常反映了投资者对下一个重大创新（例如人工智能）的兴奋，以及强劲的盈利增长的结果。但这里面隐藏着华尔街的真正威胁：盈利增长对一些股票市场的领先企业来说，实际上有些像是一场烟雾和镜子的表演。</p>
<p>别误会我的意思——华尔街一些最具影响力的企业多年来一直以一致的表现超越增长预期。这包括 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>。但一些股票市场的顶尖公司在运营上并不像它们看起来那么稳健——这就是一个问题。</p>
<p>电动车制造商 <strong>Tesla</strong>（TSLA 1.15%）就是一个完美的例子。从表面上看，它已经连续五年盈利，并依靠在电动车领域的先发优势，以及在能源生产和储存方面的扩展，作为增长销售和利润的手段。</p>
<p>但你可能会惊讶地发现，特斯拉超过一半的税前收入一直来自不可持续的来源，而不是来自电动车或能源生产和储存设备的销售。</p>
<p>在截至三月的季度中，特斯拉报告了 5.89 亿美元的税前收入，其中 5.95 亿美元来自销售监管汽车信用（这些信用是由联邦政府免费提供的），而 3.09 亿美元是其现金所赚取的净利息收入（减去利息支出）。如果没有监管信用和现金利息收入，特斯拉在第一季度将产生 3.15 亿美元的税前_亏损_。</p>
<p>更糟糕的是，特朗普总统的《一项美丽的法案》在独立日（7 月 4 日）签署成为法律，正在取消电动车的汽车监管信用。特斯拉即将失去一项 100% 的毛利项目，这进一步暴露了其盈利质量的真实情况。</p>
<p>类似的情况也可以说是 <strong>Apple</strong>（AAPL -0.59%），但原因不同。如果你剔除其市场领先的股票回购计划的影响，苹果的盈利质量就会受到重大审视。</p>
<p>自 2013 年以来，苹果回购了近 7750 亿美元的普通股，并注销了超过 43% 的流通股。将净收入除以不断减少的流通股数量，推动了每股收益（EPS）的上升，使得该股票对价值投资者更具吸引力。</p>
<p>但问题在于：苹果的增长引擎已经停滞多年，而这一切都被公司的超大规模回购计划完全掩盖。在 2021 财年（截至 2021 年 9 月 25 日），苹果实现了 947 亿美元的净收入。到 2024 财年（截至 2024 年 9 月 28 日），净收入为 937 亿美元。尽管净收入在三年内下降了 10 亿美元，但苹果的每股收益从 5.67 美元上升到 6.11 美元，自 2021 财年结束以来，其股票上涨了 44%。换句话说，从收入的角度来看，业务已经恶化，但公司增加了近 7500 亿美元的市场价值，这毫无道理。</p>
<p>因此，尽管通货膨胀是一个头条新闻，但华尔街最具影响力企业的盈利质量才是对股票市场的明确威胁。</p>

<p>股市历史上为长期投资者提供了强劲的回报，但当前的波动性引发了担忧。尽管通货膨胀的恐惧普遍存在，但对华尔街的更大威胁可能源于特朗普总统的关税政策以及美国货币供应的快速扩张。特朗普的关税可能导致美国商品成本上升，而 M2 货币供应在三年来以最快的速度增长，这表明通货膨胀可能持续。此外，华尔街的高估值，特别是标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller 市盈率，表明未来可能存在风险</p>

<p>Over the last century, the stock market has been a surefire moneymaker for patient, long-term-minded investors. Although other asset classes have increased in value over extended periods, including real estate, Treasury bonds, and commodities like gold, silver, and oil, none have come close to matching the annualized return of stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的一个世纪里，股市一直是耐心且具有长期投资思维的投资者可靠的赚钱工具。尽管其他资产类别在较长时间内也有所增值，包括房地产、国债以及黄金、白银和石油等商品，但没有任何资产能够接近股票的年化回报率。</p>
</div><p>But just because the stock market offers a lengthy track record of making long-term investors richer doesn't mean Wall Street is free of volatility. Since the curtain opened for 2025, the benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.33%) and growth-focused <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>(^IXIC -0.22%) have both hit new highs. Additionally, the iconic <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>(^DJI -0.63%) and S&amp;P 500 fell into correction territory, with the Nasdaq Composite enduring a short-lived bear market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但仅仅因为股市有着悠久的历史使长期投资者变得更富有，并不意味着华尔街就没有波动性。自 2025 年开幕以来，基准的 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -0.33%) 和以增长为导向的 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC -0.22%) 都达到了新高。此外，标志性的 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>(^DJI -0.63%) 和标准普尔 500 指数也进入了修正区间，而纳斯达克综合指数经历了短暂的熊市。</p>
</div><p>Volatility tends to be driven by investor uncertainty and emotions. Though there's clear uncertainty at the moment concerning the prevailing rate of inflation and how rising prices might adversely impact stocks moving forward, a strong argument can be made that there's a much bigger threat to Wall Street than inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波动性往往是由投资者的不确定性和情绪驱动的。尽管目前对通货膨胀的现行水平以及价格上涨可能对未来股票产生不利影响存在明显的不确定性，但可以提出一个强有力的论点，即华尔街面临的威胁远比通货膨胀更大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1NDAvcHJlc2lkZW50LWRvbmFsZC10cnVtcC1idy13aC1waG90by1kaXNjdXNzLXRhcmlmZnMtb3ZhbC1vZmZpY2UuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824540%2Fpresident-donald-trump-bw-wh-photo-discuss-tariffs-oval-office.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>President Donald Trump discussing auto tariffs. Image source: Official White House photo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唐纳德·特朗普总统讨论汽车关税。图片来源：白宫官方照片。</p>
</div><h2>Inflationary fears are mounting on Wall Street</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街的通货膨胀恐惧正在加剧</h2>
</div><p>Let me preface this discussion by noting that a modest level of inflation is normal, healthy, and expected. When the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders and expanding, it's expected that businesses will possess some level of pricing power that allows them to charge more for their goods and services. Historically, the Federal Reserve has targeted a prevailing rate of inflation of 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我在讨论之前指出，适度的通货膨胀是正常、健康且可以预期的。当美国经济全面运转并扩张时，企业预计会拥有一定的定价权，使其能够对商品和服务收取更高的价格。从历史上看，美联储的目标是 2% 的通货膨胀率。</p>
</div><p>What has professional and everyday investors concerned is the potential for two variables to significantly increase the domestic inflation rate, which can have adverse consequences on corporate America, the U.S. economy, and the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>专业投资者和普通投资者所担心的是，两个变量可能会显著提高国内通货膨胀率，这可能对美国企业、美国经济和股市产生不利影响。</p>
</div><p>The first of these issues is President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy. Following the close of trading on April 2, Trump unveiled his grandiose plan, which included a 10% sweeping global tariff, as well as higher &#34;reciprocal tariff rates&#34; on dozens of countries that have historically run unfavorable trade imbalances with America. For what it's worth, Trump has paused reciprocal tariffs on most countries until Aug. 1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中第一个问题是唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税和贸易政策。在 4 月 2 日交易结束后，特朗普公布了他的宏伟计划，其中包括 10% 的全球性关税，以及对与美国历史上存在不利贸易失衡的数十个国家提高的 “相互关税”。值得一提的是，特朗普已暂停对大多数国家的相互关税，直到 8 月 1 日。</p>
</div><p>The implementation of global tariffs comes with a host of potential problems, ranging from worsening trade relations with our allies to the possibility of foreign countries and/or consumers not buying American-made goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球关税的实施带来了许多潜在问题，从与盟友的贸易关系恶化到外国国家和/或消费者可能不购买美国制造的商品。</p>
</div><p>But arguably the biggest worry of all with tariffs is their inflationary impact. Whereas output tariffs are applied to finished products imported into the country, input tariffs are duties assigned to goods used to complete the manufacture of products in America. Input tariffs run the risk of making U.S. goods costlier, and Trump's tariff and trade policy doesn't do a very good job of differentiating between output and input tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但可以说，关税带来的最大担忧是其通货膨胀影响。输出关税是对进口到美国的成品征收的，而输入关税是对用于完成美国产品制造的商品征收的税。输入关税有可能使美国商品变得更加昂贵，而特朗普的关税和贸易政策在区分输出和输入关税方面做得并不好。</p>
</div><p>An expected increase in the prevailing rate of inflation from Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy has even resulted in something of a &#34;Trump bump&#34; in Social Security's 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计唐纳德·特朗普的关税和贸易政策将导致通货膨胀率上升，甚至导致社会保障 2026 年生活成本调整（COLA）预测出现某种 “特朗普效应”。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/838c91ff7a318feb9db7ae77e868a718.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/838c91ff7a318feb9db7ae77e868a718.png"/></p>
<p>M2 money supply is expanding at its fastest pace in three years. US M2 Money Supply data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>M2 货币供应量以三年来最快的速度扩张。美国 M2 货币供应数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>The second variable that can cause the inflation rate to accelerate and remain well above the Fed's 2% target is the expansion of U.S. money supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>导致通货膨胀率加速并保持在美联储 2% 目标之上的第二个变量是美国货币供应量的扩张。</p>
</div><p>Similar to the prevailing rate of inflation, money supply is something we want to see growing at a modest rate. Expanding economies require added capital to facilitate transactions. Steady growth in money supply is one of the key markers of a healthy economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与现行的通货膨胀率类似，货币供应量是我们希望以适度速度增长的东西。扩张的经济需要额外的资本来促进交易。货币供应量的稳定增长是健康经济的关键指标之一。</p>
</div><p>What's specifically worth noting about U.S. money supply is the expansion we're witnessing in M2. This measure of money supply includes cash and coins in circulation, demand deposits in a checking account, money market accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) under $100,000. It's money that can be spent, but requires a little effort to get to.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得特别注意的是美国货币供应量的扩张，我们正在目睹 M2 的增长。这个货币供应量的衡量标准包括流通中的现金和硬币、支票账户中的活期存款、货币市场账户、储蓄账户以及低于 100,000 美元的存款证（CDs）。这是可以花费的资金，但需要一些努力才能获得。</p>
</div><p>Over the trailing year, through May 2025, M2 money supply has increased by precisely 4%. It's the fastest year-over-year expansion in M2 since 2022 -- likely a result of the Fed kicking off a rate-easing cycle and making borrowing rates more attractive -- and it suggests a strong possibility of the U.S. inflation rate remaining stubbornly above 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在截至 2025 年 5 月的过去一年中，M2 货币供应量精确增加了 4%。这是自 2022 年以来 M2 年同比扩张的最快速度——这可能是由于美联储启动了降息周期，使借贷利率更具吸引力——这表明美国通货膨胀率可能会顽固地保持在 2% 以上。</p>
</div><p>But there's a <em>much</em> bigger downside threat to the stock market than inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但对股市来说，存在一个_更_大的下行威胁，那就是通货膨胀。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1NDAvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824540%2Faccountant-balance-sheet-corporate-income-statement-earnings-calculator-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Earnings from Wall Street's most-influential businesses aren't all they're cracked up to be</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街最具影响力企业的盈利并没有想象中那么美好</h2>
</div><p>The surface-scratching red flag for Wall Street is its valuation. When 2025 began, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) Ratio, which is also known as the cyclically adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE Ratio), was at its third-highest multiple when back-tested 154 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街的一个表面警示信号是其估值。当 2025 年开始时，标准普尔 500 指数的希勒市盈率（P/E Ratio），也称为周期调整市盈率（CAPE Ratio），在 154 年的回测中处于第三高的倍数。</p>
</div><p>Based on what history tells us, the previous five times when the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E Ratio surpassed 30 and held this multiple for at least two months were eventually followed by declines ranging from 20% to 89% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&amp;P 500, and/or Nasdaq Composite. In short, the stock market has a track record of struggling when valuation premiums become extended to the upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据历史数据，标准普尔 500 指数的希勒市盈率超过 30 并维持这一倍数至少两个月的前五次，最终都伴随着道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔 500 指数和/或纳斯达克综合指数的下跌，幅度从 20% 到 89% 不等。简而言之，当估值溢价向上延伸时，股市往往会面临困境。</p>
</div><p>When stocks, collectively, trade at aggressive valuation premiums, it's often reflective of investor excitement over a next-big-thing innovation (e.g., artificial intelligence), as well as the result of strong earnings growth. But herein lies the real threat to Wall Street: Earnings growth has been a bit of a smoke-and-mirrors show for some of the stock market's leading businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当股票整体以激进的估值溢价交易时，通常反映了投资者对下一个重大创新（例如人工智能）的兴奋，以及强劲的盈利增长的结果。但这里面隐藏着华尔街的真正威胁：盈利增长对一些股票市场的领先企业来说，实际上有些像是一场烟雾和镜子的表演。</p>
</div><p>Don't get me wrong -- some of Wall Street's most-influential businesses have blown the doors off of growth expectations with consistency for years. This includes <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong>. But some of the stock market's top companies aren't nearly as operationally sound as they might appear -- and that's a problem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>别误会我的意思——华尔街一些最具影响力的企业多年来一直以一致的表现超越增长预期。这包括 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>。但一些股票市场的顶尖公司在运营上并不像它们看起来那么稳健——这就是一个问题。</p>
</div><p>Electric vehicle (EV) maker <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 1.15%) serves as a perfect example. On the surface, it's been profitable for five consecutive years and has relied on its first-mover advantages in the EV space, as well as its expansion into energy generation and storage, as a means to grow its sales and profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动车制造商 <strong>Tesla</strong>（TSLA 1.15%）就是一个完美的例子。从表面上看，它已经连续五年盈利，并依靠在电动车领域的先发优势，以及在能源生产和储存方面的扩展，作为增长销售和利润的手段。</p>
</div><p>But you might be surprised to learn that more than half of Tesla's pre-tax income has consistently derived from unsustainable sources, not from selling EVs or energy generation and storage equipment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但你可能会惊讶地发现，特斯拉超过一半的税前收入一直来自不可持续的来源，而不是来自电动车或能源生产和储存设备的销售。</p>
</div><p>In the March-ended quarter, Tesla reported $589 million in pre-tax income, of which $595 million came from selling regulatory automotive credits (which are given to it for free by federal governments) and $309 million in net interest income earned on its cash (less interest expenses). Without regulatory credits and interest earned on its cash, Tesla would have produced a $315 million pre-tax <em>loss</em> for the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在截至三月的季度中，特斯拉报告了 5.89 亿美元的税前收入，其中 5.95 亿美元来自销售监管汽车信用（这些信用是由联邦政府免费提供的），而 3.09 亿美元是其现金所赚取的净利息收入（减去利息支出）。如果没有监管信用和现金利息收入，特斯拉在第一季度将产生 3.15 亿美元的税前_亏损_。</p>
</div><p>Worse yet, President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill, which was signed into law on Independence Day (July 4), is getting rid of automotive regulatory credits for EVs. Tesla is about to lose a 100% gross margin line item, which further exposes how poor its earnings quality truly is.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更糟糕的是，特朗普总统的《一项美丽的法案》在独立日（7 月 4 日）签署成为法律，正在取消电动车的汽车监管信用。特斯拉即将失去一项 100% 的毛利项目，这进一步暴露了其盈利质量的真实情况。</p>
</div><p>Something similar can be said about <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.59%), but for different reasons. Apple's earnings quality comes under significant scrutiny if you back out the impact of its market-leading share buyback program.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>类似的情况也可以说是 <strong>Apple</strong>（AAPL -0.59%），但原因不同。如果你剔除其市场领先的股票回购计划的影响，苹果的盈利质量就会受到重大审视。</p>
</div><p>Since 2013, Apple has repurchased an almost unfathomable $775 billion worth of its common stock and retired in excess of 43% of its outstanding shares. Dividing net income by a shrinking number of outstanding shares has pushed earnings per share (EPS) higher and made the stock more fundamentally attractive to value seekers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2013 年以来，苹果回购了近 7750 亿美元的普通股，并注销了超过 43% 的流通股。将净收入除以不断减少的流通股数量，推动了每股收益（EPS）的上升，使得该股票对价值投资者更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>But here's the issue: Apple's growth engine has stalled for years, and it's being completely masked by the company's outsized buyback program. In fiscal 2021 (ended Sept. 25, 2021), Apple delivered $94.7 billion in net income. For fiscal 2024 (ended Sept. 28, 2024), net income tallied $93.7 billion. Despite a $1 billion decline in net income over three years, Apple's EPS rose from $5.67 to $6.11, and its stock has rallied 44% since fiscal 2021 ended. In other words, the business has worsened from an income standpoint, but the company has added close to $750 billion in market value, which makes no sense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但问题在于：苹果的增长引擎已经停滞多年，而这一切都被公司的超大规模回购计划完全掩盖。在 2021 财年（截至 2021 年 9 月 25 日），苹果实现了 947 亿美元的净收入。到 2024 财年（截至 2024 年 9 月 28 日），净收入为 937 亿美元。尽管净收入在三年内下降了 10 亿美元，但苹果的每股收益从 5.67 美元上升到 6.11 美元，自 2021 财年结束以来，其股票上涨了 44%。换句话说，从收入的角度来看，业务已经恶化，但公司增加了近 7500 亿美元的市场价值，这毫无道理。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, although inflation is a headline story, it's the earnings quality of Wall Street's most-influential businesses that's the unequivocal threat to the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管通货膨胀是一个头条新闻，但华尔街最具影响力企业的盈利质量才是对股票市场的明确威胁。</p>
</div>

Forget About Inflation! This Is a Much Bigger Threat to Wall Street.

- 股票市场长期以来为投资者带来丰厚回报，但仍存在波动性。  
- 特朗普的关税政策和美国货币供应扩张可能导致通胀上升。  
- 许多知名企业的盈利质量堪忧，可能对市场构成更大威胁。  

别再关注通货膨胀了！这才是对华尔街更大的威胁