<p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -0.59%）是一家无需介绍的企业。这家庞大的消费科技公司因其广受欢迎的产品和服务而成为一个标志性品牌，消费者在全球范围内使用这些产品和服务。这一定位使得公司成为全球最有价值的公司之一，目前市值为 3.1 万亿美元。</p>
<p>作为 “壮丽七侠” 的一员，苹果在过去五年中表现出色，截至 7 月 9 日，股价上涨了 119%。尽管公司的股票比峰值低 19%，但这一表现仍然超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>。</p>
<p>苹果的股票在五年后会在哪里？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0NTYvYnVzaW5lc3MtYW5hbHlzdC10cmFkZXItc3RvY2tzLXRyZW5kcy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="442" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0NTYvYnVzaW5lc3MtYW5hbHlzdC10cmFkZXItc3RvY2tzLXRyZW5kcy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>苹果将继续保持主导地位</h2>
<p>毫无疑问，苹果已经建立了全球最强大的品牌之一。iPhone、MacBook 和 AirPods 等硬件设备，以及音乐、支付、App Store 和广告等服务，均为公司的成功做出了贡献。目前大约有 24 亿台活跃的苹果设备。管理团队表示，苹果现在拥有超过 10 亿个付费订阅。这些数字令人惊叹。</p>
<p>这使得苹果在科技领域中成为一个主导力量。我认为这种地位在未来五年内不会改变。这是因为苹果强大的生态系统使客户保持忠诚。硬件、软件和服务的结合使得竞争对手很难与之抗衡。</p>
<p>投资者应该接受的一件事是，苹果未来的增长可能不会像过去那样。苹果在 2023 财年的收入下降了 2.8%，而在 2024 财年仅增长了 2%。共识观点是，今财年的收入将增长 4.2%。在如此庞大的销售基础上，推动增长是非常困难的。</p>
<h2>向股东回报大量资本</h2>
<p>苹果的盈利能力令人难以置信。公司以高利润率销售其产品和服务，这对底线产生了巨大影响。在最新的财季（2025 财年第二季度截至 3 月 29 日），苹果的净收入达到了 248 亿美元。</p>
<p>管理层并没有回避向股东回报大量资本。在 2024 财年，苹果花费了 949 亿美元进行股票回购，同时支付了 152 亿美元的股息。这延续了长期以来以有利的资本配置政策回报投资者的传统。苹果在未来五年内无法维持这一点的风险极小。</p>
<h2>理解估值的影响</h2>
<p>我过去一直认为苹果的股票被高估。随着收入增长放缓，这一观点得到了加强。还有其他一些持续存在的挑战需要考虑，比如与重要供应国的动态关税情况、在人工智能创新方面的落后以及监管问题。这些因素增加了不确定性。</p>
<p>投资者可能会认为是时候重新审视这一情况。毕竟，如前所述，苹果的股票交易价格比 2024 年 12 月创下的峰值低 19%。今年以来，股票表现非常糟糕，截至 7 月 9 日下跌了 17%。投资者显然不习惯看到成功企业出现这种情况。</p>
<p>然而，我仍然不相信苹果的股票在未来五年内能够超越标准普尔 500 指数。估值仍然很高。股票的市盈率为 32.4，超过了五年的平均水平。如果增长更好，这样的估值是可以接受的，但事实并非如此。</p>
<p>根据华尔街共识分析师的估计，苹果的每股收益将在 2024 财年至 2027 财年之间以 8.7% 的复合年增长率增长。这并没有什么值得兴奋的。而且在没有显著的市盈率扩张的情况下，这一点并不确定，股票可能在 2030 年前落后于市场。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的股票在过去五年中上涨了 119%，但目前仍低于其峰值 19%。尽管预计收入增长放缓，该公司仍然是一个强大的品牌和生态系统的主导力量。苹果已经向股东返还了大量资本，在 2024 财年花费了 949 亿美元用于股票回购和 152 亿美元用于分红。然而，关于估值、增长放缓和外部挑战的担忧表明，苹果的股票在未来五年可能无法超越标准普尔 500 指数，预计的盈利增长率仅为 8.7%</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.59%) is a business that needs no introduction. The massive consumer tech enterprise has become an iconic brand, thanks to its popular products and services that are used by consumers across the globe. This positioning has made the company one of the world's most valuable, with a current market cap of $3.1 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -0.59%）是一家无需介绍的企业。这家庞大的消费科技公司因其广受欢迎的产品和服务而成为一个标志性品牌，消费者在全球范围内使用这些产品和服务。这一定位使得公司成为全球最有价值的公司之一，目前市值为 3.1 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>This &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; constituent has been a huge winner, with the stock up 119% in the past five years (as of July 9). That performance comes in ahead of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index even though shares of the company are 19% below their peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为 “壮丽七侠” 的一员，苹果在过去五年中表现出色，截至 7 月 9 日，股价上涨了 119%。尽管公司的股票比峰值低 19%，但这一表现仍然超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Where will Apple stock be in five years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的股票在五年后会在哪里？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ0NTYvYnVzaW5lc3MtYW5hbHlzdC10cmFkZXItc3RvY2tzLXRyZW5kcy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824456%2Fbusiness-analyst-trader-stocks-trends.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Apple will remain a dominant force</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果将继续保持主导地位</h2>
</div><p>Without a doubt, Apple has developed one of the strongest brands on the planet. Hardware devices like the iPhone, MacBook, and AirPods, as well as services such as Music, Pay, the App Store, and advertising, have contributed to the company's success. There are roughly 2.4 billion active Apple devices out there. And the leadership team says that Apple now has more than 1 billion paid subscriptions. These are crazy numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫无疑问，苹果已经建立了全球最强大的品牌之一。iPhone、MacBook 和 AirPods 等硬件设备，以及音乐、支付、App Store 和广告等服务，均为公司的成功做出了贡献。目前大约有 24 亿台活跃的苹果设备。管理团队表示，苹果现在拥有超过 10 亿个付费订阅。这些数字令人惊叹。</p>
</div><p>This has made Apple a dominant force in the tech landscape. I don't think that position is going to change over the next five years. That's because Apple's powerful ecosystem keeps customers locked in. The combination of hardware, software, and services is extremely difficult for rivals to compete with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得苹果在科技领域中成为一个主导力量。我认为这种地位在未来五年内不会改变。这是因为苹果强大的生态系统使客户保持忠诚。硬件、软件和服务的结合使得竞争对手很难与之抗衡。</p>
</div><p>One thing that investors should accept is that Apple's growth going forward probably won't resemble the past. Apple's revenue declined 2.8% in fiscal 2023 before rising by just 2% in fiscal 2024. The consensus view is that the top line will increase by 4.2% this fiscal year. It's difficult to move the needle on such a gargantuan sales base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应该接受的一件事是，苹果未来的增长可能不会像过去那样。苹果在 2023 财年的收入下降了 2.8%，而在 2024 财年仅增长了 2%。共识观点是，今财年的收入将增长 4.2%。在如此庞大的销售基础上，推动增长是非常困难的。</p>
</div><h2>Returning lots of capital to shareholders</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>向股东回报大量资本</h2>
</div><p>Apple's profitability is unbelievably impressive. The company sells its products and services at high margins. And this has a huge impact on the bottom line. Apple raked in $24.8 billion in net income during the latest fiscal quarter (Q2 2025 ended March 29).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的盈利能力令人难以置信。公司以高利润率销售其产品和服务，这对底线产生了巨大影响。在最新的财季（2025 财年第二季度截至 3 月 29 日），苹果的净收入达到了 248 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Management has not shied away from returning lots of capital to shareholders. In fiscal 2024, Apple spent $94.9 billion on stock buybacks. It also paid $15.2 billion in dividends. That extends a long-running streak of rewarding its investors with a favorable capital allocation policy. There is minimal risk of Apple not being able to keep this going over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层并没有回避向股东回报大量资本。在 2024 财年，苹果花费了 949 亿美元进行股票回购，同时支付了 152 亿美元的股息。这延续了长期以来以有利的资本配置政策回报投资者的传统。苹果在未来五年内无法维持这一点的风险极小。</p>
</div><h2>Understanding the valuation's impact</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>理解估值的影响</h2>
</div><p>My long-held view in the past was that Apple shares were overvalued. This perspective was strengthened by slowing revenue growth. There are other lingering challenges to think about, like the dynamic tariff situation with important supplier countries, falling behind in AI innovation, and regulatory concerns. These factors add uncertainty to the mix.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我过去一直认为苹果的股票被高估。随着收入增长放缓，这一观点得到了加强。还有其他一些持续存在的挑战需要考虑，比如与重要供应国的动态关税情况、在人工智能创新方面的落后以及监管问题。这些因素增加了不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Investors might think that it's time for a fresh look at the situation. After all, as mentioned, Apple shares are trading 19% below their peak, a high-water mark established in December 2024. The stock has performed very poorly this year, down 17% (as of July 9). Investors are definitely not used to seeing this from a successful business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可能会认为是时候重新审视这一情况。毕竟，如前所述，苹果的股票交易价格比 2024 年 12 月创下的峰值低 19%。今年以来，股票表现非常糟糕，截至 7 月 9 日下跌了 17%。投资者显然不习惯看到成功企业出现这种情况。</p>
</div><p>However, I still don't believe Apple shares have what it takes to outperform the S&amp;P 500 over the next five years. The valuation is still steep. The stock can be purchased at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.4. That's above the five-year average. This would be acceptable if growth were better, but this isn't the case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我仍然不相信苹果的股票在未来五年内能够超越标准普尔 500 指数。估值仍然很高。股票的市盈率为 32.4，超过了五年的平均水平。如果增长更好，这样的估值是可以接受的，但事实并非如此。</p>
</div><p>According to Wall Street consensus analyst estimates, Apple's earnings per share will grow at a compound annual rate of 8.7% between fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2027. That's nothing to get excited about. And without meaningful multiple expansion, which isn't a sure thing at all, the stock could trail the market between now and 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据华尔街共识分析师的估计，苹果的每股收益将在 2024 财年至 2027 财年之间以 8.7% 的复合年增长率增长。这并没有什么值得兴奋的。而且在没有显著的市盈率扩张的情况下，这一点并不确定，股票可能在 2030 年前落后于市场。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 苹果公司市值达 3.1 万亿美元，过去五年股价上涨 119%。  
- 2023 财年收入下降 2.8%，2024 财年预计增长 4.2%。  
- 股价仍高估，未来五年可能无法超越标普 500 指数。  

五年后苹果的股票会达到什么水平？