<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（NASDAQ: AMZN）一直是有史以来最好的投资之一。但对于投资者来说，这条路并不总是平坦。从 1999 年到 2001 年，亚马逊的股价下跌了多达 90%。直到 2009 年，股价才超过之前的历史高点——几乎经历了十年的横盘回报！当然，在那之后，股价飙升，使亚马逊成为全球最有价值的公司之一。</p>
<p>现在，有一只成长股让我想起 1999 年的亚马逊。然而，丰厚的回报可能会比人们预期的来得更快。事实上，亚马逊是下面这家公司的最大股东，拥有大约 14% 的股份。</p>
<h2>对这只令人兴奋的成长股的预期极低</h2>
<p>在 2021 年，几只电动车股票以极大的声势上市。预期非常高，曾经有些电动车股票的交易价格达到 7500 倍的销售额。</p>
<p>在 2021 年 11 月 10 日上市后，投资者对 <strong>Rivian</strong>（RIVN -2.18%）寄予厚望。不幸的是，现实并没有达到预期。上市后，销售额从几乎为零增长到超过 50 亿美元，但股价却_暴跌_近 90%。为什么？因为市场对公司的增长预期过高，超出了公司的实际能力。这提醒投资者：无论一家公司的增长多么迅速，最终决定你回报的将是你为股票支付的价格。为增长支付过高的价格，最终仍然可能会亏损。</p>
<p>现在，Rivian 的估值接近谷底。股价仅为销售额的 2.8 倍——与 2022 年 60 倍的销售额估值相去甚远。作为比较，<strong>特斯拉</strong> 的交易价格约为销售额的 11 倍，而电动车制造商 <strong>Lucid Group</strong> 的交易价格约为销售额的 7 倍。然而，正如我们将看到的，Rivian 的增长可能即将再次激增，使得今天的估值显得极其便宜。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjEyMjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ0MTE1NDQxNi0xMjAxeDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjEyMjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ0MTE1NDQxNi0xMjAxeDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Rivian 会成为下一个亚马逊吗？</h2>
<p>Rivian 让我想起了亚马逊在其增长真正起飞之前的样子。Rivian 有潜力成为一家市值 1 万亿美元的公司。看看特斯拉。虽然特斯拉还有太阳能、分布式电池系统和一个初创的机器人出租车部门等其他业务，但其绝大多数销售额仍然来自电动车。即使在特斯拉的机器人出租车服务引起关注之前，该公司也曾多次达到 1 万亿美元的市值。从今天的估值来看，Rivian 的股价需要上涨大约 65 倍才能达到 1 万亿美元的市值。这种上涨将把 1.5 万美元的投资变成超过 100 万美元。</p>
<p>这种上涨对 Rivian 来说可能吗？绝对可能。但与亚马逊一样，这将需要许多年才能完全实现。该公司目前只有两款车型：R1T 和 R1S。根据选项，两款车的价格都在 10 万美元以上。但从 2026 年开始，管理层预计将开始生产三款新车型，价格均在 5 万美元以下。当特斯拉推出其经济型车型——Model Y 和 Model 3 时，销售额激增，使其成为今天的公司。尽管 Rivian 的估值处于低谷，但同样的情况可能很快会发生。</p>
<p>Rivian 与 1999 年的亚马逊有很多相似之处。股价曾被定价为完美，结果却遭受了巨大的损失。但长期的增长潜力依然存在。愿意耐心等待的投资者可能会复制亚马逊令人印象深刻的长期收益。</p>

亚马逊

RIVN

<p>Rivian (RIVN) 的股价自 2021 年上市以来已暴跌近 90%，让人想起亚马逊在 1999 年至 2001 年间的挣扎。尽管最初的期望很高，Rivian 的估值已降至销售额的 2.8 倍，远低于其峰值。然而，Rivian 计划在 2026 年前推出更多经济型车型，这可能会使其复苏，类似于亚马逊的增长轨迹。投资者被鼓励考虑 Rivian 的长期潜力，如果其实现显著增长，可能会成为一家价值 1 万亿美元的公司，将 1.5 万美元的投资转变为超过 100 万美元</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>(NASDAQ: AMZN) has been one of the best investments of all time. But the road hasn't always been easy for investors. From 1999 to 2001, Amazon shares fell in value by as much as 90%. It wasn't until 2009 that shares surpassed their former all-time highs -- nearly a decade of sideways returns! Of course, after that point, shares skyrocketed, making Amazon one of the most valuable companies in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（NASDAQ: AMZN）一直是有史以来最好的投资之一。但对于投资者来说，这条路并不总是平坦。从 1999 年到 2001 年，亚马逊的股价下跌了多达 90%。直到 2009 年，股价才超过之前的历史高点——几乎经历了十年的横盘回报！当然，在那之后，股价飙升，使亚马逊成为全球最有价值的公司之一。</p>
</div><p>Right now, there's one growth stock that reminds me a lot of Amazon in 1999. However, big returns could come much sooner than people expect. In fact, Amazon is the biggest shareholder of the company below, owning roughly 14% of the entire business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，有一只成长股让我想起 1999 年的亚马逊。然而，丰厚的回报可能会比人们预期的来得更快。事实上，亚马逊是下面这家公司的最大股东，拥有大约 14% 的股份。</p>
</div><h2>Expectations are incredibly low for this exciting growth stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对这只令人兴奋的成长股的预期极低</h2>
</div><p>In 2021, several electric car stocks went public to great fanfare. Expectations were incredibly high, and at one point, some EV stocks were trading at 7,500 times sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2021 年，几只电动车股票以极大的声势上市。预期非常高，曾经有些电动车股票的交易价格达到 7500 倍的销售额。</p>
</div><p>After going public on Nov. 10, 2021, investors expected big things from <strong>Rivian</strong>(RIVN -2.18%). Unfortunately, reality did not meet expectations. Sales grew from essentially zero to more than $5 billion in the years that followed the company's IPO but the stock price <em>sank</em> by nearly 90%. Why? Because the market had priced in even more growth than the company was capable of. This is a great reminder to investors: No matter how fast a company is growing, it will ultimately be the price you pay for a stock that determines your final return. Pay too much for growth, and you can still lose money over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2021 年 11 月 10 日上市后，投资者对 <strong>Rivian</strong>（RIVN -2.18%）寄予厚望。不幸的是，现实并没有达到预期。上市后，销售额从几乎为零增长到超过 50 亿美元，但股价却_暴跌_近 90%。为什么？因为市场对公司的增长预期过高，超出了公司的实际能力。这提醒投资者：无论一家公司的增长多么迅速，最终决定你回报的将是你为股票支付的价格。为增长支付过高的价格，最终仍然可能会亏损。</p>
</div><p>Right now, Rivian's valuation is near rock bottom. Shares trade at just 2.8 times sales -- a far cry from its 60 times sales valuation in 2022. For comparison, <strong>Tesla</strong> trades at roughly 11 times sales, with EV maker <strong>Lucid Group</strong> trading at around 7 times sales. As we'll see, however, Rivian's growth could be about to surge once again, making today's valuation shockingly cheap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，Rivian 的估值接近谷底。股价仅为销售额的 2.8 倍——与 2022 年 60 倍的销售额估值相去甚远。作为比较，<strong>特斯拉</strong> 的交易价格约为销售额的 11 倍，而电动车制造商 <strong>Lucid Group</strong> 的交易价格约为销售额的 7 倍。然而，正如我们将看到的，Rivian 的增长可能即将再次激增，使得今天的估值显得极其便宜。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjEyMjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ0MTE1NDQxNi0xMjAxeDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F821225%2Fgettyimages-1441154416-1201x800-5b2df79-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Will Rivian become the next Amazon?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Rivian 会成为下一个亚马逊吗？</h2>
</div><p>Rivian reminds me of Amazon back before its growth really took off. Rivian has the potential to become a $1 trillion stock. Just look at Tesla. While Tesla has other business segments like solar, distributed battery systems, and a fledgling robotaxi division, the vast majority of its sales still come from electric vehicles. Even before the excitement over Tesla's robotaxi service took hold, the company attained a $1 trillion market cap on several occasions. From today's valuation, Rivian stock would need to rise roughly 65 times in value to reach a $1 trillion market cap. This type of rise would turn a $15,000 investment into more than $1 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 让我想起了亚马逊在其增长真正起飞之前的样子。Rivian 有潜力成为一家市值 1 万亿美元的公司。看看特斯拉。虽然特斯拉还有太阳能、分布式电池系统和一个初创的机器人出租车部门等其他业务，但其绝大多数销售额仍然来自电动车。即使在特斯拉的机器人出租车服务引起关注之前，该公司也曾多次达到 1 万亿美元的市值。从今天的估值来看，Rivian 的股价需要上涨大约 65 倍才能达到 1 万亿美元的市值。这种上涨将把 1.5 万美元的投资变成超过 100 万美元。</p>
</div><p>Is this type of rise possible for Rivian? Absolutely. But as with Amazon, it will take many years to fully play out. The company currently only has two vehicles in its lineup: the R1T and R1S. Both can cost upward of $100,000, depending on options. But starting in 2026, management expects to begin production of three new models, all priced under $50,000. When Tesla launched its affordable models -- the Model Y and Model 3 -- sales exploded, turning it into the company it is today. The same could soon be true for Rivian despite its rock-bottom valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种上涨对 Rivian 来说可能吗？绝对可能。但与亚马逊一样，这将需要许多年才能完全实现。该公司目前只有两款车型：R1T 和 R1S。根据选项，两款车的价格都在 10 万美元以上。但从 2026 年开始，管理层预计将开始生产三款新车型，价格均在 5 万美元以下。当特斯拉推出其经济型车型——Model Y 和 Model 3 时，销售额激增，使其成为今天的公司。尽管 Rivian 的估值处于低谷，但同样的情况可能很快会发生。</p>
</div><p>Rivian has a lot of similarities to Amazon in 1999. Shares were once priced for perfection, only to suffer gigantic losses. But the long-term growth potential remains. Investors willing to stay patient could replicate Amazon's impressive long-term gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 与 1999 年的亚马逊有很多相似之处。股价曾被定价为完美，结果却遭受了巨大的损失。但长期的增长潜力依然存在。愿意耐心等待的投资者可能会复制亚马逊令人印象深刻的长期收益。</p>
</div>

1 Super Growth Stock Is Down 90% and Reminds Me of Amazon in 1999

- Rivian 的估值接近底部，当前市值仅为销售额的 2.8 倍。  
- 该公司有潜力成为下一个亚马逊，目标市值可达 1 万亿美元。  
- 投资者需耐心等待，长期增长潜力巨大。  

一只超级成长股已经下跌了 90%，这让我联想到了 1999 年的亚马逊