<p>我们都知道 “七大巨头” 股票。这些公司为股东创造了巨大的收益，现在它们的市值总和约为 15 万亿美元。看到这些科技巨头在商业世界中崛起，真是令人惊叹。</p>
<p>但下一个 “七大巨头” 股票会是谁呢？以下是我认为在未来十年内将成为市场领导者的两只股票，原因在于将推动其利润增长的持续利好因素。实际上，这其中一只股票的市值已经超过 1 万亿美元，但我认为在未来 10 年内它的市值可以更大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1MjQvY2hhcnQtdXAtdG8tdGhlLXJpZ2h0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="459" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1MjQvY2hhcnQtdXAtdG8tdGhlLXJpZ2h0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Visa 的稳定增长</h2>
<p>全球最具影响力的支付公司是 <strong>Visa</strong>(V -2.23%)。去年，它通过 2338 亿笔交易处理了 13.2 万亿美元的数字支付，涉及 160 种不同的货币。这一切都发生在一个日历年内。目前，流通中的 Visa 借记卡和信用卡数量达到 48 亿张，几乎相当于地球上每个人都有一张。</p>
<p>巨大的规模使 Visa 通过网络效应获得了竞争优势，这使得新兴公司几乎无法竞争。多重利好因素推动 Visa 的收入增长。首先，它的增长与全球收入、消费者支出和商业交易同步。其次，随着数字支付的普及，Visa 的收入也在增长。</p>
<p>第三，通货膨胀也在推动其增长，因为公司会对通过其网络消费的每一美元收取小额费用——因此如果商品价格上涨，Visa 的收入也会增加。这些因素以及 Visa 的竞争护城河是其过去 10 年收入累计增长 171% 的原因。</p>
<p>这些利好因素在未来 10 年内应该会继续存在。然而，Visa 现在正在寻找更多推动增长的方法，通过其所谓的增值服务，如安全、欺诈保护和为商户及银行合作伙伴提供分析服务。上个季度，这一部门的收入同比增长 22%，可以继续提升整体收入增长。</p>
<p>Visa 的利润率高达 66%。这得益于其轻资产商业模式和广泛的竞争优势。在未来 10 年内，我预计 Visa 的利润率将继续上升，因为它在固定成本基础上获得了更多规模。结合持续的经济利好因素，我认为公司 250 亿美元的营业收入在 10 年后可以翻倍，达到 500 亿到 1000 亿美元之间。</p>
<p>这将使其与 “七大巨头” 股票处于同一类别，并将帮助 Visa 继续增长其市值和股东回报。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3f60425ba37434a8f208af482db84de4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3f60425ba37434a8f208af482db84de4.png"/></p>
<p>V 营业收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>台积电的巨大利好</h2>
<p>Visa 是一家稳定的复合增长公司，但有些人可能会说它的业务比较无聊。如果你查看它的收入图表，基本上是直线上升的。<strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>(TSM 0.24%) -- 通常称为台积电 -- 在未来 10 年内的爆炸性收入潜力则不能这样说。</p>
<p>台积电是全球先进半导体的首要制造商。由于在技术进步上的大量再投资，以及其从计算机芯片设计师那里接受外包订单的模式，而不是传统的自己制造和销售芯片的模式，台积电扩大了其领先地位，并凭借其大规模生产尖端计算机芯片的能力挤压了市场。</p>
<p>这些计算机芯片对人工智能（AI）至关重要，这使得台积电的客户如 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 大幅增加了订单。随着 AI 的使用持续增长，台积电的收入也应该会增长。</p>
<p>我们仍处于 AI 的早期阶段，这为台积电在这一市场领域提供了至少 10 年的增长空间。在过去 10 年中，公司的收入增长了 250%，达到了 970 亿美元。我预计由于 AI 的推动，未来 10 年收入将翻倍，达到约 2500 亿美元。利用台积电作为制造商的最佳利润率约为 45%，2500 亿美元的收入在 10 年后可能转化为超过 1000 亿美元的年收益。这将使其与今天的科技巨头处于同一水平。</p>
<p>目前，台积电的市值为 1.2 万亿美元。如果其年度营业收入超过 1000 亿美元，我预计投资者将给予其更高的估值，使其成为今天您投资组合中的一个绝佳选择。</p>

台积电

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>这篇文章讨论了两只有望成为市场领袖的股票：Visa 和台积电（Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company）。Visa 的市值超过 1 万亿美元，受益于数字支付的增长和高利润率，预计在未来十年内其营业收入可能翻倍，达到 500 亿至 1000 亿美元。台积电作为半导体制造的领导者，预计其收入将从 970 亿美元增长到约 2500 亿美元，主要受人工智能需求的推动，年收益有可能超过 1000 亿美元。这两只股票在未来几年内都具备显著的增长潜力</p>

<p>We all know about the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks. These companies have generated huge gains for shareholders and now combine to have a market cap of around $15 trillion. It has been incredible to watch these technology giants take over the business world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们都知道 “七大巨头” 股票。这些公司为股东创造了巨大的收益，现在它们的市值总和约为 15 万亿美元。看到这些科技巨头在商业世界中崛起，真是令人惊叹。</p>
</div><p>But what about the next Magnificent Seven stocks? Here are my two top choices for stocks that will become market leaders over the next decade due to the sustained tailwinds that will drive underlying profit growth. In fact, one of these stocks already has a market cap of over $1 trillion, but I think it can get much larger over the next 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但下一个 “七大巨头” 股票会是谁呢？以下是我认为在未来十年内将成为市场领导者的两只股票，原因在于将推动其利润增长的持续利好因素。实际上，这其中一只股票的市值已经超过 1 万亿美元，但我认为在未来 10 年内它的市值可以更大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjQ1MjQvY2hhcnQtdXAtdG8tdGhlLXJpZ2h0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F824524%2Fchart-up-to-the-right.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Visa's steady gains</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Visa 的稳定增长</h2>
</div><p>The most prolific payments company in the world is <strong>Visa</strong>(V -2.23%). Last year, it processed $13.2 trillion in digital payments in 160 different currencies through 233.8 billion transactions. That is all in just one calendar year. There are now 4.8 billion Visa debit and credit cards in circulation, almost one for every person on earth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球最具影响力的支付公司是 <strong>Visa</strong>(V -2.23%)。去年，它通过 2338 亿笔交易处理了 13.2 万亿美元的数字支付，涉及 160 种不同的货币。这一切都发生在一个日历年内。目前，流通中的 Visa 借记卡和信用卡数量达到 48 亿张，几乎相当于地球上每个人都有一张。</p>
</div><p>Immense scale gives Visa a competitive advantage via a network effect, which makes it almost impossible for upstarts to compete. Multiple tailwinds help Visa's revenue grow. First, it grows along with incomes, consumer spending, and business transactions around the globe. Second, it grows with the adoption of digital payments over physical cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巨大的规模使 Visa 通过网络效应获得了竞争优势，这使得新兴公司几乎无法竞争。多重利好因素推动 Visa 的收入增长。首先，它的增长与全球收入、消费者支出和商业交易同步。其次，随着数字支付的普及，Visa 的收入也在增长。</p>
</div><p>Third, it is boosted by inflation as the company earns a small fee for every dollar spent through its network -- so if items cost more, that is more revenue paid to Visa. These factors and Visa's competitive moat are why Visa's revenue is up 171% cumulatively in the past 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，通货膨胀也在推动其增长，因为公司会对通过其网络消费的每一美元收取小额费用——因此如果商品价格上涨，Visa 的收入也会增加。这些因素以及 Visa 的竞争护城河是其过去 10 年收入累计增长 171% 的原因。</p>
</div><p>These tailwinds should continue over the next 10 years. However, Visa is now looking for more ways to drive growth through what it calls valued-added services such as security, fraud protection, and analytics for merchant and banking partners. This segment grew revenue 22% year over year last quarter and can keep uplifting overall revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些利好因素在未来 10 年内应该会继续存在。然而，Visa 现在正在寻找更多推动增长的方法，通过其所谓的增值服务，如安全、欺诈保护和为商户及银行合作伙伴提供分析服务。上个季度，这一部门的收入同比增长 22%，可以继续提升整体收入增长。</p>
</div><p>Visa has high profit margins of 66%. This is due to its asset-light business model and wide competitive advantage. Over the next 10 years, I expect Visa's profit margin to keep climbing higher as it gets more scale over its fixed cost base. When combined with the sustained economic tailwinds, I think the company's $25 billion in operating income can more than double 10 years from now to between $50 billion and $100 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Visa 的利润率高达 66%。这得益于其轻资产商业模式和广泛的竞争优势。在未来 10 年内，我预计 Visa 的利润率将继续上升，因为它在固定成本基础上获得了更多规模。结合持续的经济利好因素，我认为公司 250 亿美元的营业收入在 10 年后可以翻倍，达到 500 亿到 1000 亿美元之间。</p>
</div><p>This would put it in the same category of the Magnificent Seven stocks and will help Visa keep growing its market cap and stock returns for shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将使其与 “七大巨头” 股票处于同一类别，并将帮助 Visa 继续增长其市值和股东回报。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3f60425ba37434a8f208af482db84de4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3f60425ba37434a8f208af482db84de4.png"/></p>
<p>V Operating Income (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>V 营业收入（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Taiwan Semiconductor's massive tailwinds</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电的巨大利好</h2>
</div><p>Visa is a steady compounder, but some may say a boring business. If you look at its revenue chart, it basically goes up in a straight line. The same cannot be said of <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 0.24%) -- otherwise known as TSMC -- and its explosive revenue potential in the next 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Visa 是一家稳定的复合增长公司，但有些人可能会说它的业务比较无聊。如果你查看它的收入图表，基本上是直线上升的。<strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>(TSM 0.24%) -- 通常称为台积电 -- 在未来 10 年内的爆炸性收入潜力则不能这样说。</p>
</div><p>TSMC is the premier manufacturer of advanced semiconductors in the world. Due to a large level of reinvestment in technological advances and its model of taking outsourced orders from computer chip designers as opposed to the traditional model of building and selling chips yourself, TSMC has expanded its lead and is now crowding out the field with its ability to produce cutting-edge computer chips at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电是全球先进半导体的首要制造商。由于在技术进步上的大量再投资，以及其从计算机芯片设计师那里接受外包订单的模式，而不是传统的自己制造和销售芯片的模式，台积电扩大了其领先地位，并凭借其大规模生产尖端计算机芯片的能力挤压了市场。</p>
</div><p>These computer chips are vital for artificial intelligence (AI), which is leading TSMC customers such as <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, and <strong>Alphabet</strong> to greatly increase their orders. As usage of AI continues, TSMC's revenue should grow as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些计算机芯片对人工智能（AI）至关重要，这使得台积电的客户如 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 大幅增加了订单。随着 AI 的使用持续增长，台积电的收入也应该会增长。</p>
</div><p>We're still in the very early days of AI, giving TSMC at least 10 more years of growth ahead for this market segment. Over the past 10 years, the company's revenue has grown by 250% to $97 billion. I expect revenue to more than double over the next 10 years due to AI, growing to around $250 billion. Using TSMC's best-in-class profit margins for a manufacturer of around 45%, $250 billion in revenue could turn into over $100 billion in annual earnings 10 years from now. That would put it in the same class as the technology giants today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们仍处于 AI 的早期阶段，这为台积电在这一市场领域提供了至少 10 年的增长空间。在过去 10 年中，公司的收入增长了 250%，达到了 970 亿美元。我预计由于 AI 的推动，未来 10 年收入将翻倍，达到约 2500 亿美元。利用台积电作为制造商的最佳利润率约为 45%，2500 亿美元的收入在 10 年后可能转化为超过 1000 亿美元的年收益。这将使其与今天的科技巨头处于同一水平。</p>
</div><p>Today, TSMC has a market capitalization of $1.2 trillion. If it gets its yearly operating earnings above $100 billion, I expect investors to value it significantly higher, making it a great buy for your portfolio today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，台积电的市值为 1.2 万亿美元。如果其年度营业收入超过 1000 亿美元，我预计投资者将给予其更高的估值，使其成为今天您投资组合中的一个绝佳选择。</p>
</div>

Beyond the "Magnificent Seven": My Top 2 Stocks to Become the Next Market Leaders

- 文章讨论了未来可能成为 “下一个辉煌七巨头” 的股票。  
- 重点提到 Visa 和台积电在未来十年的增长潜力。  
- Visa 利用数字支付和增值服务推动收入增长，台积电则受益于 AI 需求。

除了 “七大巨头” 之外：我推荐的两只股票有望成为下一个市场领袖